Flip side to that is he comes back healthy for the 2023 season and is top 10. Have seen mocks that have him falling to the bottom of the 1st into the top of the 2nd.
The interesting question he has to ask to himself is how likely he thinks he can be a top 10 pick in the 2024 draft vs the money he can get going into the 2023 draft. Top 10 means a 4 year contract, with the 5th year option in the neighborhood of $21+ million. Going anywhere in the 1st round likely still has a contract value over $12 million and going in the 2nd round puts him in the $6-9million range over the 4 years. So, he could theoretically make over $10-15 million more going in the top 10 than late 1st or 2nd round. For 1st round picks there is also a big difference in the 5th year option value between going top 10 and outside the top 10.
However, staying in the 2023 draft gets him one year closer to a chance at his 2nd NFL contract where good NFL receivers are getting paid a lot of money. So, say he goes in the 2nd round and has a 4 year contract worth $7million. He plays great and earns a 2nd NFL contract that pays him like the Kirk deal, 4 years, $72million. He is now making big money and likely with a signing bonus that gets him to similar money he would have had for waiting a year and going top 10 in the same timeframe. Plus, if he waits a year and goes in the 1st round, he would still technically be under his rookie deal for 2 more years assuming the team exercises the 5th year option.