Official NFL Draft Thread - Bear Fans Only - and No Montucky!

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playthrough2001 said:
After all that, he gave up one sack and 10 pressures on 537 pass blocking snaps last year.

The previous year, he gave up 12 pressures and one sack on 550 pass blocking snaps.
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I'd be interested to see what he would've said about banks if he was working with him like he is membou and campbell..

Tbf though banks is a lesser athlete, but that doesn't make him a worse football player
 
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DefNextYear said:
It definitely is the season to spread false info. My guess is no one gets bulletproof info. If you listen to very connected guys like McShay, you can get a vibe of what it's like. McShay starts to pick up the league value of players by talking to his connections. They may not say "man, I hope Banks is there at 10 so I can draft him", but they will talk fondly of him and maybe say things like "high on our board" or "we think he can actually play LT at a high level". Whatever it is they'll say... you pick up the context clues, and these media people pick up on these things for a bunch of teams and get a pulse of the league in that way. I'm sure the dynamic is you give a little info, get a little info.

And for what it's worth, it doesn't even need to be a lie. Let's use Jeanty. Maybe Poles loves him, right? I bet everyone does. Poles can say, "I think this kid is really special." That's Poles giving info to a guy like McShay. So now... McShay knows a couple things. He knows a GM is high on Jeanty, but he also knows the Bears are paying attention to RB and Jeanty specifically. However, while it's not a lie, maybe Poles loves Jeanty, but would never pick him at 10. Or maybe there's a list of guys he's secretly hoping are there instead. It's not that he lied about Jeanty, but mislead the direction he actually wants to go. And now that he's given info, he can probably prompt a convo on the OT class to see what McShay is hearing around the league.

So of course, anyone can lie or prop up one guy. I'm sure it happens a lot. But someone like McShay, who may talk to a majority of NFL teams, can at least get a feel of the guys who a lot of teams are talking about in a good or bad way and then you can kind of go from there. Ultimately, it's still guessing how they value the player and if they're telling the truth to begin with.
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Right. So it ultimately comes down to the teams' scouting reports of guys, who they like and where they like them.

I think about Austin Booker last year. Poles said they had a fourth round grade on him and he was available in the 5th, so they thought it was worth trading next year's 4th (at the time) to snag him. He's going off his board and not so much what other teams think about him because apparently other teams didn't think too highly of him to let him last til the 5th.

When the 10th pick comes, their board is going to determine what they do. If they have a guy they think is blue-chip/can't miss that they'd take with a top 5 pick then they'll scoop him up. If they have a lot of guys similarly rated there then they'd likely entertain a trade-down and hope/assume at least one of their guys will be available when they pick, which is just a numbers game. Let's say Denver has to have Jeanty at #10 and you don't think highly enough of him to just take him. Instead, you've got around 8 guys you like and would be fine with drafting at #10, but Denver is giving you really nice value to trade down to #20. It's just an odds game there. Chances are one of those guys will be available because one or two teams in that range is likely going to value another guy or two higher than I do and take him in that range, leaving 1 or 2 of my guys to take at #20. If even more fall then great.

Obviously that dynamic completely changes if there's only 4 guys I like at #10 and see a significant drop-off after that: I'm unlikely to want to trade down 10 spots. So in that instance, I think trying to think you really know what other teams are going to do would be foolish. Your judgment is always going to be clouded by what you think of certain players especially considering they're deep into the process and have had a lot of time to form strong opinions on guys, opinions that the league won't share.
 
Nelly

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playthrough2001 said:
After all that, he gave up one sack and 10 pressures on 537 pass blocking snaps last year.

The previous year, he gave up 12 pressures and one sack on 550 pass blocking snaps.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone is claiming Banks is going to be a superstar. He's in line to be the 3rd tackle taken which of course means he's not a perfect prospect. I think what you're looking for from him is to be a really good starter but not necessarily a dominant or perennial pro-bowler just based on his scouting report. If he does then great.
 
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Nelly said:
I don't think anyone is claiming Banks is going to be a superstar. He's in line to be the 3rd tackle taken which of course means he's not a perfect prospect. I think what you're looking for from him is to be a really good starter but not necessarily a dominant or perennial pro-bowler just based on his scouting report. If he does then great.
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That would be pretty disappointing at #10.

People still consider leonard floyd a bust and he was a good player. At #10 you better be getting a pro bowl level talent otherwise its meh
 
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Nelly

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msadows said:
That would be pretty disappointing at #10.

People still consider leonard floyd a bust and he was a good player. At #10 you better be getting a pro bowl level talent otherwise its meh
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Seems like people are saying that doesn't appear to exist in this draft. You've got a small amount of blue-chippers at the top and then a jumble of similarly rated, unspectacular players. I'm sure some will end up being stars but good luck picking those out. Here's who's been drafted 9/10/11 the last 8 drafts for reference:

2024: WR Rome Odunze, QB JJ McCarthy, T Olu Fashanu
2023: DT Jalen Carter, RT Darnell Wright, G Peter Skoronski
2022: T Charles Cross, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Chris Olave
2021: CB Patrick Surtain, WR Devonta Smith, QB Justin Fields
2020: LB C.J. Henderson, T Jedrick Wills, T Mekhi Becton
2019: DT Ed Oliver, LB Devin Bush, T Jonah Williams
2018: T Mike McGlinchey, QB Josh Rosen, S Minkah Fitzpatrick
2017: WR John Ross, QB Patrick Mahomes, CB Marshon Lattimore

For example, would you consider Devonta Smith a bad pick at #10? He's the #2 WR on the superbowl champs but not a pro-bowler.
 
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ndgt10 said:
I don't think the Bears take him even if he was there, which I think he will be.
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I suspect you're correct. I would've thought he had a chance before they re-signed Edwards... now I think no way. I actually do like Walker, but seems like the fit is just not there for the Bears. I think he hurt himself by not testing at all. He's loaded with questions about his position and mixed reviews on his actual performance... getting some nice 40 times or a shuttle or vertical could've helped. I imagine he'd actually test very well too, so it's weird to pass on the opportunity.
 
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Nelly said:
Right. So it ultimately comes down to the teams' scouting reports of guys, who they like and where they like them.

I think about Austin Booker last year. Poles said they had a fourth round grade on him and he was available in the 5th, so they thought it was worth trading next year's 4th (at the time) to snag him. He's going off his board and not so much what other teams think about him because apparently other teams didn't think too highly of him to let him last til the 5th.

When the 10th pick comes, their board is going to determine what they do. If they have a guy they think is blue-chip/can't miss that they'd take with a top 5 pick then they'll scoop him up. If they have a lot of guys similarly rated there then they'd likely entertain a trade-down and hope/assume at least one of their guys will be available when they pick, which is just a numbers game. Let's say Denver has to have Jeanty at #10 and you don't think highly enough of him to just take him. Instead, you've got around 8 guys you like and would be fine with drafting at #10, but Denver is giving you really nice value to trade down to #20. It's just an odds game there. Chances are one of those guys will be available because one or two teams in that range is likely going to value another guy or two higher than I do and take him in that range, leaving 1 or 2 of my guys to take at #20. If even more fall then great.

Obviously that dynamic completely changes if there's only 4 guys I like at #10 and see a significant drop-off after that: I'm unlikely to want to trade down 10 spots. So in that instance, I think trying to think you really know what other teams are going to do would be foolish. Your judgment is always going to be clouded by what you think of certain players especially considering they're deep into the process and have had a lot of time to form strong opinions on guys, opinions that the league won't share.
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Yea, that's all part of it. We heard it in the videos regarding the Rome pick. The team is calculating odds that Rome falls to 9, in the moment. I imagine that model is pretty dynamic based on the info they've gathered and the other teams' needs and general tendencies. I forgot the percentage, but they came up with something "77% chance Rome is there". I imagine that's a hell of a calculation.

But I'm not even talking about just that. Spytek was on a podcast the other day and described how you plan multiple picks. Raiders are a perfect example actually. Do I take Jeanty at 6 in a deep RB class? Do I get Jeanty and maybe a more risky OT like Ersery? Or do I take Membou and get Henderson? Part of this becomes an exercise in determining what other teams will do. So again, to use this example, what if the league rumors are telling me there's a big run at OT at the end of the first and I won't even get Ersery? I may miss OT all-together. Well, I need that info to strategize. So maybe I LOVE Jeanty a lot and rank him higher than Membou, but I can take Membou and still guarantee a high ranking RB on my board. The alternative is I get Jeanty and no OT at all. The combo of the two picks is overall a better draft value.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1912394258331430958
 
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