****OFFICIAL TRADE DEADLINE THREAD****

[DB012031]

I think there's very little if anything to suggest Joe wants or intends to use Ryan in anything more than a LOOGY in a high leverage situation where he seems to believe in Strop enough that he was pitching in the 8th inning of high leverage situations as little as 10 days ago. Maybe Joe makes a decision on either guy but if they're healthy, I will assume they're going to be ahead of Ryan seeing as Ryan has been used solely as a LOOGY in high leverage where as both guys project as full inning high leverage guys.

With regards to the Chatwood/Q discussion, I would imagine that Q takes the long role and that Chatwood is given more flexibility to pitch harder knowing there isn't going to be a long relief appearance coming. My thoughts would be that if that's the case, the final 2ish weeks of the year (when rosters expand and you have guys like Mills and Azolay as the long guy), Chatwood gets used more and more as a single inning/situational guy to see what they have there.

But is Ryan really a LOOGY? If you look at his stats, he averages about an inning an appearance and last night was the only time in July he faced a single batter. You are right, he is equally good against both Lefty's and Righty's but he is much more than the typical LOOGY.

 

[DB012031]

Might as well cut Phelps now. No need to see him pitch. Somehow Morrow made the chopping block when he’s not even on the roster.
I agree that Wick and Ryan have been good and shouldn’t be demoted, but your chopping block doesn’t make sense. Also Ryan isn’t really a lefty specialist, he’s been pretty good against either side.
Your 2 long men discussion doesn’t matter unless we make the playoffs and even then it really still doesn’t matter. Whoever is playing well would make it. They aren’t necessarily long men then either, but rather useable options at any point in a game where they matchup well

My chopping block comment was a response to the comment on the play-off roster, not cutting the players. So Morrow, unless he came back and was lights out (which lets be honest, we would all be shocked if that happened) wouldn't be considered for the roster. Phelps will have to earn his spot, its not guaranteed just cause we traded for him. So my point was, at this current moment in time, Ryan and Wick have been two of our best bullpen guys the past month plus so it would be hard to not have them on the roster come crunch time.

 

[DanTown]

But is Ryan really a LOOGY? If you look at his stats, he averages about an inning an appearance and last night was the only time in July he faced a single batter. You are right, he is equally good against both Lefty's and Righty's but he is much more than the typical LOOGY.

His last five appearances

- Last night for a single batter
- 2.1 innings of a 8 run game in the middle innings against Milwaukee
- B6 to face two lefties with a switch hitter sandwiched in the middle against Milwaukee
- 1.2 innings in the 5th/6th of a bullpen game with several run lead
- 1 inning in the 5/6 to face a switch hitter and two lefties

Joe does not throw Ryan out there to face righties in any sort of leverage situation except when they're switch hitters. As good as any of us think Ryan is/has pitched, clearly Joe has not elevated him to any sort of regular ability to pitch in an inning regardless of handiness like he does with Chishek, Strop, or Kimbrel.

Maybe he gets more than one out as a LOOGY because of lineup construction but the point remains is that the Cubs do not use Ryan in any sort of medium/high leverage against right handers except switch hitters.

 

[anotheridiot]

So assuming the Cubs do the following at some point in the next two weeks
- Activate Zobrist and send Happ to Iowa
- Activate Morrow, Strop, Hamels and release Brach, option Ryan and Wick

This would be the 25 man roster for the final six weeks

C - Contreras, Caratini
IF - Rizzo, Bryant, Zobrist, Baez, Bote, Kemp
OF - Castellanos, Heyward, Almora, Schwarber

SP - Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Quintana, Darvish

Long - Chatwood
LOOGY - Holland
MR (6/7) - Cishek, Kintzler, Phelps, Strop
Set-Up (8th) - Morrow
Closer - Kimbrel

That's more than enough talent to win the division and probably be a very competitive playoff team if they can get a decent Zobrist by then or Kemp reverts back to last year vs RHP.

This isn't on Theo. This team loses, it's squarely the players and potentially Maddon but it's definitely not Theo not giving them enough.

It better damn well be on Maddon and his staff finally. I dont know about enough. I dont know Phelps or how quickly he will earn the circle of trust when he probably might not pitch until they have a big lead in a no pressure situation. Kemp was DFA'd, Holland was probably about to be DFA'd since the money involved was the 500K buyout for next season so SanFran do not have to pay it.

What is Theo's vision?
Gave away LaStella and his 1.25 contract to give DeScalso 2/5, just because he played shortstop recently?
Let Monty go for a guy that did not want to sign here in the off season.
Gave CJ a fresh organization.
Held off on Russell until Javy's heel problem, then sent him back.
Reports were Detroit would have traded Castellanos AND Green for Nico. Washington had the same deal for their top prospect. (after the Gleybor deal, I appreciate that one).

I still think Theos vision is Kemp doing the defensive sub and pinch runner ( its either him or Bote at this point). They will give him a shot like they gave Garcia, otherwise I still think Nico gets playing time this September. That would at least have him as an option to pinch hit, run or defend. He needs to be playing 2B though. Just am not sure on this September 1 callup if Zo has to be on the roster by the 31st to be post season eligible.

Oh, saw Kemp batting yesterday, Wieters was kneeling and about as tall as tony, hence the Gore references.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Maybe he gets more than one out as a LOOGY because of lineup construction but the point remains is that the Cubs do not use Ryan in any sort of medium/high leverage against right handers except switch hitters.

Got Braun to hit into a DP and Pina to strike out looking to beat Milwaukee. Which is good for Ryan since according to you he probably only has 10 days left on the Cubs major league roster.

 

[DanTown]

Got Braun to hit into a DP and Pina to strike out looking to beat Milwaukee. Which is good for Ryan since according to you he probably only has 10 days left on the Cubs major league roster.

Are you purposely or accidentally this dense

- The score of the game was 7-2; that sort of proves my point that Joe isn't out there using Ryan as a high leverage lefty who he wants to get righties out when the game is on the line.
- The question isn't how much I like or don't like Ryan; it's solely a question of how Joe uses him and who has options in the bullpen and who doesn't
- Obviously things are fluid with any bullpen. In let's say 10 days if/when Strop comes back that Phelps has a ERA of 12 in 8 innings. Maybe they'll just DFA Phelps. I don't know, it's a best guess
- Ryan and Wick has options left, no other reliever does
- The assumption was they would be moved SOLELY to open a roster spot for Strop and/or Morrow. It goes without saying that as long as though guys are not back, they are not sending Ryan or Wick down just to send them down
- Maybe the Cubs would do something I've never seen them do with Maddon which is send a guy like Happ down and keep 14 pitchers

Always good to have a completely poor faith discussion with you.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Are you purposely or accidentally this dense

- The score of the game was 7-2; that sort of proves my point that Joe isn't out there using Ryan as a high leverage lefty who he wants to get righties out when the game is on the line.

Stopped after this comment. You said, again, verbatim:

Maybe he gets more than one out as a LOOGY because of lineup construction but the point remains is that the Cubs do not use Ryan in any sort of medium/high leverage against right handers except switch hitters.

I guess its my bad for not realizing that "medium/high leverage" means "high leverage". The score was 6-2, not 7-2 (hey look, wrong again!), and Ryan was facing the 4-6 hitters in Milwaukee's lineup. With so much on the line, I'd consider that to be a 'medium leverage' situation. I wouldn't say it was low leverage. Maybe you do. I don't really care at this point, since its all pretty much superfluous. I don't remember saying that Maddon uses Ryan in high leverage situations against righties.

Anyways, this idea that Ryan is merely a one out LOOGY is not borne out by anything that's happened this season.

 

[DanTown]

Stopped after this comment. You said, again, verbatim:



I guess its my bad for not realizing that "medium/high leverage" means "high leverage". The score was 6-2, not 7-2 (hey look, wrong again!), and Ryan was facing the 4-6 hitters in Milwaukee's lineup. With so much on the line, I'd consider that to be a 'medium leverage' situation. I wouldn't say it was low leverage. Maybe you do. I don't really care at this point, since its all pretty much superfluous. I don't remember saying that Maddon uses Ryan in high leverage situations against righties.

Anyways, this idea that Ryan is merely a one out LOOGY is not borne out by anything that's happened this season.

Sorry I confused 6-2 and 7-2 seeing as the Cubs won 7-2 yesterday.

Ryan took the mound with a WP of 97%; it's hard to get lower leverage than that.

If you really need more evidence that Ryan is a LOOGY, in a 4-1 game on Saturday, the Cubs used Ryan to get one out and then pulled him to get Cishek in there even though Ryan was great in getting Yelich to strikeout in four pitches.

And my final evidence, look at his splits in terms of PA by leverage

High - 29 PA
Medium - 40PA
Low - 105 PA

Hes a LOOGY in high leverage and like any LOOGY, he's not in low leverage.

And with regards to Joe's use of him, I would question why they're platooning him considering his splits aren't truly that different in terms of vs RHP or LHP.

 

[DanTown]

And with Ryan (who's probably the guy to fear here as Strop is likely back before Sept 1 but Morrow might now be) is that he has options and the other guys don't. Now if Holland or Phelps fall on their ass for the next two weeks, I could see just DFA those guys but we're simply talking about who to send down for like two weeks and in that case, you're most likely talking guys with options since the obvious DFA (Brach) is now gone.

Wick seems to be far closer to the "inner circle" of bullpen trust considering his usage the past seven or so days but it's been a while since the Cubs have had a need for a 7th/8th/9th type situation considering their scores in many of the games the past 10-12 days.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Sorry I confused 6-2 and 7-2 seeing as the Cubs won 7-2 yesterday.

Ryan took the mound with a WP of 97%; it's hard to get lower leverage than that.

If you really need more evidence that Ryan is a LOOGY, in a 4-1 game on Saturday, the Cubs used Ryan to get one out and then pulled him to get Cishek in there even though Ryan was great in getting Yelich to strikeout in four pitches.

And my final evidence, look at his splits in terms of PA by leverage

High - 29 PA
Medium - 40PA
Low - 105 PA

Hes a LOOGY in high leverage and like any LOOGY, he's not in low leverage.

And with regards to Joe's use of him, I would question why they're platooning him considering his splits aren't truly that different in terms of vs RHP or LHP.

Saw Ryan pitch last night in the 9th inning of a 1-run game and the first batter he faced was...right handed! Then it was switch, righty, righty. Cool!

I guess I'm fortunate to see Ryan pitch, since he'll probably be sent to the minors soon despite being the team's most productive lefty in the pen and tied for 9th in the league with 51 appearances. Baseball is a cruel game.

 

[anotheridiot]

Apparently, the waivers are buzzing with players. The cubs sign Wilson to a minor league deal and Asrubal Cabrera has signed with the Nationals. Lucroy is out there and they claim there are still a few days left before he can be claimed. There is no deal to work out, why the waiting period?

What happened to July 31 was the end of it? The only difference now is players just get claimed with no chance of anything returning to the team that waived him other than paying the balance of their contracts.