Offseason Junk

[beckdawg]

Comparing Madrigal to Theriot is ridiculous. Theriot was a .281/.341/.350 hitter for his career with a .069 ISO and 7.9%/10.6% bb/k rates. Madrigal in what you would expect to be the worst part of his career in his first ~80 games or so is hitting .317/.358/.406 with a .089 ISO and 4.6%/7.4% bb/k rates. So you're talking about a +.036 on the BA and +.017 on the on base not to mention a pretty considerable difference in ISO. If you exclude a obviously inflated 2006 Theriot never was an above league average hitter which his 86 wRC+ shows. Madrigal again in what should be the worst part of his career already is at 113 wRC+.

As for the gywnn comparisons... I don't really think it's fair to compare anyone to a hall of famer but if you're talking about styles of play Madrigal's style is pretty uncommon. People who can K at less than a 8% rate were even rare in the 80s but in the high k rate environment we have now it's basically unheard of. So, i think if you're only talking about that aspect of their games it's fair to compare them to show the upside of that style of hitter.

Here's what i would say overall... Madrigal is going to be a very consistent player. He probably wont have an astronomical ceiling unless he gets more power a la Altuve suddenly being an MVP candidate. With that being said, players who don't strike out tend to be very consistent because they basically become tied to BABIP which over a long enough sample is going to be pretty safe. For example, look at how rizzo has played throughout his career and then compare it to Javy. Javy will have some months where he just destroys the ball and then months where he can't do anything which is because he has fewer balls in play where as rizzo has more chances at balls falling into play because he strikes out less.

 

[beckdawg]

And actually, now that i mentioned Altuve, he'd be a far better comp than Theriot. Specifically 2014/15 before his power really came on but Altuve goes to show you even small guys can exchange contact for power to some extent.

 

[CSF77]

I agree with almost everything.

Madrigal: 324 PA That is less than 1/2 of a season to go by.

So I would think that it would be best to see him go through a full first season before gracing him as anything.

Theriot is a decent floor. Celling who knows. I'll sit and wait on that. I thought that Wood and Prior would lead the Cubs into the next Braves dynasty and see how that went....

 

[JP Hochbaum]

How would an increase in power make him Tony Gwynn?

Because it wouldn't take much for Madrigal to match him if he increases the amount of extra base hits he has, and maybe a slight increase in walks would help as well. THis is also assuming he hits well above .300, which he has done so far. This is all projections obviously but one reason why its ok to be excited a little. Increasing power isn't that hard for players to do, most players do this as they age.

Fangraphs actually did a great piece on this on how just a slight increase in XBH and walks would put him at Gwynn level in .OPS.

"As you can see, giving him three more hits puts him in the top 10 with an OPS of exactly .792. But a .345 batting average is a heavy ask unless you are Tony Gwynn; Madrigal is really good, he’s not Tony Gwynn. And to get to great, Madrigal needs to be peak Gwynn. Just slapping a few balls around is not a realistic path for Madrigal becoming a top 10 second baseman. He’s going to have to add a secondary skill."

And to get there it takes very little:

Nick Madrigal Is Good. Can He Be Great?

The second baseman’s lack of secondary skills creates unique challenges for a unique player.

blogs.fangraphs.com

 

[TL1961]

Exactly. With Gwynn, we are talking about the greatest hitter I’ve ever seen play. And he’s considered the greatest pure hitter since fucking Teddy ballgame Williams. To compare Madrigal to Gwynn is just ludicrous to do. Not to mention, Gwynn was never a power hitter either, so to say if Madrigal added some power he’d be like Gwynn is extra puzzling

If Madrigal can add some speed he could be the next Pujols.

 

[Szlachcic]

"If Madrigal can add some speed he could be the next Pujols."
LOL

 

[JP Hochbaum]

And actually, now that i mentioned Altuve, he'd be a far better comp than Theriot. Specifically 2014/15 before his power really came on but Altuve goes to show you even small guys can exchange contact for power to some extent.

So if Altuve is a better comp than Theriot, than Gwynn would be even closer.... if that power goes up. Altuve is on pace for much higher career war per year than Gwynn is. Again this is under the assumption that he can keep the high average and hit for just a tad more power.

People don't realize the ERA comp here. If Gwynn played today, he would be valued much less now than he was in the 80s/90s because of the current OPS and WAR trend.

 

[beckdawg]

So if Altuve is a better comp than Theriot, than Gwynn would be even closer.... if that power goes up. Altuve is on pace for much higher career war per year than Gwynn is. Again this is under the assumption that he can keep the high average and hit for just a tad more power.

People don't realize the ERA comp here. If Gwynn played today, he would be valued much less now than he was in the 80s/90s because of the current OPS and WAR trend.

Eh... i mean i think it depends on which version of Altuve you're talking about. I specifically pointed out 14/15 for a very important reason. In 14 he had a .112 ISO and only hit 7 homers. In 15 his ISO decently spiked to .145 with him hitting 15 homers but his BABIP dropped which lowered his batting average from .341 to .313. Ideally for me that is a realistic range where I feel comfortable projecting madrigal presently. A .112-.145 ISO given his current stats is a bump up but going from .089 to .112 isn't crazy and in Altuve's first 3 seasons his ISO was .092 so pretty comparable.

Post-2015 Altuve has been kind of a different hitter. His ISO is .193 and noticeably his k rate is up to 13% where prior it was 10.4%. Its possible Madrigal could sell out a bit for more power in a similar fashion but that sort of ventures into what could happen vs what he more or less is right now.

While I get the Gwynn comps, one problem for me is you're comparing different eras of the game. For one thing, teams didn't shift as much. Now maybe for Gwynn that wouldn't have even mattered because he was such a good hitter. I'm not sure really but with the ability of teams to literally track ever ball hit to spots on the field and position players accordingly it's possible Gwynn wouldn't have hit .310+ every year in modern baseball. You also have the added k rate in the game today which again might make Gwynn's 4.2% career k rate impossible which impacts his games.

So, to me it's easier to look at a guy like Altuve who's only a few seasons removed from what we're talking about. Additionally, I think the case can be made that attempting to coax more power out like Altuve did is more beneficial than the type of player Gwynn was. That pains me to say because I love 80s baseball but the reality is Altuve's prime years in 16/17 were 152 wRC+ and 160 wRC+ where as Gywnn's best years of 87(154 wRC+), 94(166 wRC+) and 97(153 wRC+) he had to hit over .370. Since 2000, only 4 players have hit over .370. 2000 Helton and Nomar, 2002 Bonds and 2004 Ichiro. If you expand it to .360 you add in 2009 Mauer, 2008 Chipper, 2020 LeMahieu, 2007 Magglio and 2004 Bonds. The majority of that was in the height of the steroid era and LeMahieu's 2020 was a 50 game stretch.

In other words, I think you can make the case that Altuve was right to trade some average for power and it's very possible we eventually see Madrigal attempt something similar.

 

[knoxville7]

Because it wouldn't take much for Madrigal to match him if he increases the amount of extra base hits he has, and maybe a slight increase in walks would help as well. THis is also assuming he hits well above .300, which he has done so far. This is all projections obviously but one reason why its ok to be excited a little. Increasing power isn't that hard for players to do, most players do this as they age.

Fangraphs actually did a great piece on this on how just a slight increase in XBH and walks would put him at Gwynn level in .OPS.

"As you can see, giving him three more hits puts him in the top 10 with an OPS of exactly .792. But a .345 batting average is a heavy ask unless you are Tony Gwynn; Madrigal is really good, he’s not Tony Gwynn. And to get to great, Madrigal needs to be peak Gwynn. Just slapping a few balls around is not a realistic path for Madrigal becoming a top 10 second baseman. He’s going to have to add a secondary skill."

And to get there it takes very little:
View attachment 15988

Nick Madrigal Is Good. Can He Be Great?

The second baseman’s lack of secondary skills creates unique challenges for a unique player.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Lmao keep dreaming bud

gwynn was a career .338 hitter that at his peak flirted with .400. He had 7 seasons with a BA of over .350

madrigal will never be a .350+ hitter in his peak

again, stop comparing madrigal to the greatest pure hitter any of us have seen play live

 

[CSF77]

Lmao keep dreaming bud

gwynn was a career .338 hitter that at his peak flirted with .400. He had 7 seasons with a BA of over .350

madrigal will never be a .350+ hitter in his peak

again, stop comparing madrigal to the greatest pure hitter any of us have seen play live

Wade Boggs: .328/.415/.443 88.3 fWAR 3010 Hits.
Tony Gwinn .338/.388/.459 65.0 fWAR 3141 Hits.

Both to me are the standard for pure hitters sense Pete Rose.

This generation? 2010-2021

Trout 77.8 fWAR. Then Buster Posy are the best of this generation. 57.8 fWAR.

Altuve in this span leads the majors in hits. 1777.

Sense 2000 Pujos 3301 Hits and a sure 1st round HOF. Ichrio follows him at 3089 hits.

So this is a generational thing. Gwinn and Boggs were their generation great hitters. The came Ichiro and Pujos. (Rest were juicing) Followed by Trout and Posey. The game diverted from hits to power and the balue went to SLG and OBA vs pure hitting.

Mad is still in diapers. So going off on how he could be is rather silly. He needs a larger example than 300 PA. This has been entertaining at the least.

This is far better talked about after 1000 PA. Even then we thought Castro was the next great hitter. So lets keep it curbed a bit.

TBH I would rather them target Correa and keep the better glove at 2B. Hoerner plays GG level 2B. Adding Stroman and Miley with Hendricks the ball is going on the ground over 50% of the plays. It is far better to keep the keystone solid over a slap hitter that makes a silly DH.

 

[beckdawg]

If these hosmer rumors are to be believed... I think the cubs might be trying to land Gore. Red Sox last year got a 40 grade prospect from the yankees to save NYY $8.15 mil. Hosmer has 4/$60M left on his deal and there's no shot he opts out after next year. If you value him at 1fwar per season that's like $30M-ish in debt weight the cubs would be eating. And if you're doing that the cubs better be getting a 50 grade prospect. Of SD's prospects, Gore makes the most sense to me especially considering he has dropped in opinion from scouting circles.

I'd love to land Abrams personally but I can't see SD trading him away for this sort of trade and unless he moves to CF cubs don't really have a spot for him. Hassell I can't see them trading since they just drafted him and the cubs are pretty deep in the OF in his age range. Campusano doesn't make sense to me because he's a bat first catcher and the cubs are not only deep at C but also brought in the GM from cleveland who tended to favor pitch framing Cs.

Given all that buying low on Gore would be interesting because i think at worst if his mechanical issues stay around he's an interesting LH bullpen option. At best you potentially are adding a #1-2 pitcher.

 

[TL1961]

Lmao keep dreaming bud

gwynn was a career .338 hitter that at his peak flirted with .400. He had 7 seasons with a BA of over .350

madrigal will never be a .350+ hitter in his peak

again, stop comparing madrigal to the greatest pure hitter any of us have seen play live

“Greatest hitter for average“.

 

[CSF77]

If these hosmer rumors are to be believed... I think the cubs might be trying to land Gore. Red Sox last year got a 40 grade prospect from the yankees to save NYY $8.15 mil. Hosmer has 4/$60M left on his deal and there's no shot he opts out after next year. If you value him at 1fwar per season that's like $30M-ish in debt weight the cubs would be eating. And if you're doing that the cubs better be getting a 50 grade prospect. Of SD's prospects, Gore makes the most sense to me especially considering he has dropped in opinion from scouting circles.

I'd love to land Abrams personally but I can't see SD trading him away for this sort of trade and unless he moves to CF cubs don't really have a spot for him. Hassell I can't see them trading since they just drafted him and the cubs are pretty deep in the OF in his age range. Campusano doesn't make sense to me because he's a bat first catcher and the cubs are not only deep at C but also brought in the GM from cleveland who tended to favor pitch framing Cs.

Given all that buying low on Gore would be interesting because i think at worst if his mechanical issues stay around he's an interesting LH bullpen option. At best you potentially are adding a #1-2 pitcher.

I would be shocked if Jed did this. It is a step back. But if Gore was on the table and the Cubs took on Hosmer for 1B. Moved Schwindel to DH. Sent back a lower payday flier. It would make sense to target Gore.

But at the end of the day I believe Jed wants flexible transactions vs lock in moves unless the signing justifies it.

I would rather Jed target Rodon who pitched at ace levels and bolster the 6th starter and middle relief to keep his innings in check.

 

[knoxville7]

“Greatest hitter for average“.

Wrong to say only that

 

[CSF77]

Lester retired. Ended up with a 200-117 3.66 record. I'm pretty sure that he felt that 300 was out of reach and said F-it and roll the dice on his post season stuff to get in.

 

[knoxville7]

Lester retired. Ended up with a 200-117 3.66 record. I'm pretty sure that he felt that 300 was out of reach and said F-it and roll the dice on his post season stuff to get in.

Lester 100% gets in the HOF

 

[CSF77]

Lester 100% gets in the HOF

I was reading a piece on the Cubs site. They had a solid debate about it. He was a 2nd tier pitcher with a excellent post season track record. Going by his raw reg season stuff. No. But the case is in the post season where he was a big reason for those victories.

He has comps with Buhrle and others in that class.

The only 100% sure thing is 300 wins. If you fall 100 wins short your really need a strong secondary argument. And he does.

50/50 and really depends if the field is watered down that year or not.

 

[CSF77]

1) Bert Blyleven (1970-1992) —(287-250; 3.31 ERA; ERA+ 118; 60 SHO; 4970/ 4632 H/ 8.4 H/9; 3701 K/ 1322 BB/ 2.80 K/BB ratio; 1.198 WHIP)

2) Luis Tiant (1964-1982) —(229-172; 3.30 ERA; ERA+ 114; 49 SHO; 3,486 IP/ 3,075 H/ 7.9 H/9; 2416 K/ 1104 BB/ 2.19 ratio; 1.199 WHIP)

3) Tony Mullane (1881-1894) —(284-220; 3.05 ERA; ERA+ 118; 30 SHO; 4,531 IP/ 4,195 H/ 8.3 H/9; 1,803 K/ 1,408 BB/ 1.28 ratio; 1.237 WHIP)

4) Jim McCormick (1878-1887) —(265-214; 2.43 ERA; ERA+ 118; 33 SHO; 4,275 IP/4,092 H/ 8.6 H/9; 1704 K/ 749 BB/ 2.28 ratio; 1.132 WHIP)


8) Tommy John (1963-1989) —(288-231; 3.34 ERA; ERA+ 110; 46 SHO; 4710 IP/ 4783 H/ H/9 9.1; 2245 K/ 1259 BB/ 1.78 ratio; 1.283 WHIP)

12) Milt Pappas (1957-1973) —(209-164; 3.40 Era; ERA+ 110; 43 SHO; 3186 IP/ 3046 H/ H/9 8.6; 1728 K/ 858 BB/ 2.01 ratio; 1.225 WHIP)

15) Ed Reulbach (1905-1917) —(182-106; 2.28 ERA; ERA+ 123; 40 SHO; 2,632 IP/ 2,117 H/ 7.2 H/9; 1,137 K/ 892 BB/ 1.27 ratio; 1.143 WHIP)

There have been some unreal snubs. Jon was not the best pitcher in his generation. If we are talking Kershaw then sure. We can say yes. Even Verlander gets a nod on HOF first ticket.

 

[knoxville7]

I was reading a piece on the Cubs site. They had a solid debate about it. He was a 2nd tier pitcher with a excellent post season track record. Going by his raw reg season stuff. No. But the case is in the post season where he was a big reason for those victories.

He has comps with Buhrle and others in that class.

The only 100% sure thing is 300 wins. If you fall 100 wins short your really need a strong secondary argument. And he does.

50/50 and really depends if the field is watered down that year or not.

1) Bert Blyleven (1970-1992) —(287-250; 3.31 ERA; ERA+ 118; 60 SHO; 4970/ 4632 H/ 8.4 H/9; 3701 K/ 1322 BB/ 2.80 K/BB ratio; 1.198 WHIP)

2) Luis Tiant (1964-1982) —(229-172; 3.30 ERA; ERA+ 114; 49 SHO; 3,486 IP/ 3,075 H/ 7.9 H/9; 2416 K/ 1104 BB/ 2.19 ratio; 1.199 WHIP)

3) Tony Mullane (1881-1894) —(284-220; 3.05 ERA; ERA+ 118; 30 SHO; 4,531 IP/ 4,195 H/ 8.3 H/9; 1,803 K/ 1,408 BB/ 1.28 ratio; 1.237 WHIP)

4) Jim McCormick (1878-1887) —(265-214; 2.43 ERA; ERA+ 118; 33 SHO; 4,275 IP/4,092 H/ 8.6 H/9; 1704 K/ 749 BB/ 2.28 ratio; 1.132 WHIP)


8) Tommy John (1963-1989) —(288-231; 3.34 ERA; ERA+ 110; 46 SHO; 4710 IP/ 4783 H/ H/9 9.1; 2245 K/ 1259 BB/ 1.78 ratio; 1.283 WHIP)

12) Milt Pappas (1957-1973) —(209-164; 3.40 Era; ERA+ 110; 43 SHO; 3186 IP/ 3046 H/ H/9 8.6; 1728 K/ 858 BB/ 2.01 ratio; 1.225 WHIP)

15) Ed Reulbach (1905-1917) —(182-106; 2.28 ERA; ERA+ 123; 40 SHO; 2,632 IP/ 2,117 H/ 7.2 H/9; 1,137 K/ 892 BB/ 1.27 ratio; 1.143 WHIP)

There have been some unreal snubs. Jon was not the best pitcher in his generation. If we are talking Kershaw then sure. We can say yes. Even Verlander gets a nod on HOF first ticket.

You don’t have to be the best pitcher of your generation to get into the HOF. And 300 wins is no longer the measuring stick for a pitcher getting in the HOF…because nobody really reaches 300 wins anymore. Even Kershaw, a guy considered to be the greatest of his generation won’t come anywhere near sniffing 300 wins

 

[CSF77]

You don’t have to be the best pitcher of your generation to get into the HOF. And 300 wins is no longer the measuring stick for a pitcher getting in the HOF…because nobody really reaches 300 wins anymore. Even Kershaw, a guy considered to be the greatest of his generation won’t come anywhere near sniffing 300 wins

This is fair.

Like I said 50/50 with a bump due to play off success.

Mark Buehrle. 60 BWAR
Jon Lester. 44.3 BWAR.

It's a bias Cubs opinion really not based off of facts. His argument is based off of being on contenders in winning windows.

Jon was not the ace of the Cubs. First it was Jake. Then Cole. Then Yu.

Boston he was a great #2.

Like I said he is part of the very good squad and he was pretty durable. But by no means a slam dunk.