Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[beckdawg]

Not sure if the suspension includes not being able to be with team during ST but either way have to think he will be sent to Minors for a couple weeks after the suspension up, so he probably won't be ready til mid to late May.

I just dont think he will play another inning for the cubs, and will either be moved in offseason or as you suggest at some point during or after his suspension

If it's like PED suspensions typically speaking yes they can go to ST just can't play games. Plus in Russell's case I don't think he's ever even used an option year so having him take awhile to mess around in Iowa isn't a big issue.

As for whether or not he's played his last game with the parent team... I'm not convinced of that. You'd basically have to trade him immediately after his suspension ends and I just don't think that's gonna happen because no one trades in june. Overall, I just think it's really unlikely they trade him before the season because of the reason I've already stated but also because 40 man roster slots are limited. If you're a team who is rebuilding and presumably would be the type of team who would consider trading for him, I think you'd rather save that roster space for a rule 5 pick who wouldn't come with his salary and who wouldn't come with his baggage.

The way I see it, the cubs are going to have some need in july. Usually it's bullpen help for competitive teams. If you give Russell away for peanuts in the offseason then when you need someone in july you're dipping into a farm system that's not that amazing. Like I said, if someone is actually willing to offer the cubs something that will help them in 2019 to start the season ok but I really doubt that offer is out there. And if it's not to me, I think you just hold onto him and use him as a july trade chip. If the suspension is gone and maybe he plays well then you have a pretty interesting piece. And if you go into the season assuming he's not an important part of the team by signing say Machado then you're in a great position to make that sort of trade.

Plus there's always the chance that say Baez tears an ACL or something in the first week and suddenly you're fucked.

 

[chibears55]

If it's like PED suspensions typically speaking yes they can go to ST just can't play games. Plus in Russell's case I don't think he's ever even used an option year so having him take awhile to mess around in Iowa isn't a big issue.

As for whether or not he's played his last game with the parent team... I'm not convinced of that. You'd basically have to trade him immediately after his suspension ends and I just don't think that's gonna happen because no one trades in june. Overall, I just think it's really unlikely they trade him before the season because of the reason I've already stated but also because 40 man roster slots are limited. If you're a team who is rebuilding and presumably would be the type of team who would consider trading for him, I think you'd rather save that roster space for a rule 5 pick who wouldn't come with his salary and who wouldn't come with his baggage.

The way I see it, the cubs are going to have some need in july. Usually it's bullpen help for competitive teams. If you give Russell away for peanuts in the offseason then when you need someone in july you're dipping into a farm system that's not that amazing. Like I said, if someone is actually willing to offer the cubs something that will help them in 2019 to start the season ok but I really doubt that offer is out there. And if it's not to me, I think you just hold onto him and use him as a july trade chip. If the suspension is gone and maybe he plays well then you have a pretty interesting piece. And if you go into the season assuming he's not an important part of the team by signing say Machado then you're in a great position to make that sort of trade.

Plus there's always the chance that say Baez tears an ACL or something in the first week and suddenly you're fucked.

That the thing...

Outside of a drastic injury, you would hope they put together a starting infield and bench out of ST that not relying on a Russell return in mid May or June...

If their banking on him returning to the 25 man roster to be a part of the team for seasonor just to showcase him for a month, then that means there a position player starting the year with them that they dont consider a part of the team going forward ...

Why i think they probably will unload him in offseason, but if they dont trade him in offseason and as you said opt to let him ride out the suspension and look to move him during the season..
I just think he will sit in minors til he moved, this way he playing every day after basically going 8 months without actual live games, and builds up his value that way. .

I think it just comes down to what they want....

Are they just looking to unload, and move on and just get what they can get

Or

Hold onto him as long as possible and try and get a solid return


I think we'll be surprised by a team or teams that will be willing to trade for him because of his age and baseball value ...

They will say all the right things in front of the camera for PR purposes, but bottom line is, it a billion dollar buisness and it about putting the best possible team on the field to win games and addy is a young, cheap, good player that a defensive SS, and is under team control for 3 years.

There will be a team willing to add him for a reasonable price

 

[beckdawg]

If their banking on him returning to the 25 man roster to be a part of the team for seasonor just to showcase him for a month, then that means there a position player starting the year with them that they dont consider a part of the team going forward ...

See, I think that's just Bote. If you go with him out of spring training it's not a huge surprise and he's pretty versatile. The thing is if you go the whole wait to trade Russell, you can easily move him down to AAA for a month or two. Plus, going a full month without someone getting hurt is pretty unusual in baseball. So, it's never just about having the 12 or 13 positional players. You need more like 14-15

 

[anotheridiot]

I dont know what they are going to do. Happ should realistically be replacing Zobrist next year and Bote should replace LaStella this year. If Zo wants to retire after this year, he can have a seat right on the bench on the coaching staff. If not, I doubt the deal with Joe will still be honored with him starting in a predetermined number of games.

I am pretty sure to a man every one from the current locker room does not need some high dollar free agent coming in to get this team back on top, but the desire to sweep every series has to be there from top to bottom. Sometimes it an adverse effect like watching Heywood struggle making damn near 30 when the guys carrying the team were not even at 1 million.

We all know this Kapass report about Bryant, I think it would be really sweet to get Baez a bridge contract and buy out his free agency. We know we have an elite defender, and if, IF they do decide to deal him, it will be a really sweet move for the team that gets him controlled 5 years in the 40-45 million range.

 

[beckdawg]

Happ should realistically be replacing Zobrist next year

I think they are going to trade happ. He's not Zobrist. Zobrist in his prime was a plus defender all over the field. Happ may not even be average in LF if you go by defensive metrics. I said this before but there's just something that doesn't add up about his reduced role in the second half. The offense "broke" in the second half according to Theo. Happ isn't on the roster for his glove. He's there for his bat. So, why if you're having issues scoring does his role get reduced when you can't score runs? They didn't trust him enough to get out of the funk and went out and got Murphy. If you don't trust Happ enough to work through the issues in 2018 why would that change in 2019?

If you read between the lines there's something going on there. At least that's my read on the situation. Plus even if i'm reading into stuff that isn't there, when realistically is Happ ever going to start? He's not a better hitter than Schwarber now and he probably doesn't have as big an upside as Schwarber either. Chances are you're likely going to see Heyward in CF and he's not getting moved. RF is likely going to be Zobrist or Bryant or maybe Harper but he's not who I'd get.

At that point he's at best a 4th OF but again why would you keep him over Almora? Happ probably has more trade value than Almora and Almora is a better fit for the 4th OF role. Joe typically doesn't run 5 OF's because he typically has 8 guys in the pen. And you're likely not going to have room for Happ as an infielder.

 

[CSF77]

If it's like PED suspensions typically speaking yes they can go to ST just can't play games. Plus in Russell's case I don't think he's ever even used an option year so having him take awhile to mess around in Iowa isn't a big issue.

As for whether or not he's played his last game with the parent team... I'm not convinced of that. You'd basically have to trade him immediately after his suspension ends and I just don't think that's gonna happen because no one trades in june. Overall, I just think it's really unlikely they trade him before the season because of the reason I've already stated but also because 40 man roster slots are limited. If you're a team who is rebuilding and presumably would be the type of team who would consider trading for him, I think you'd rather save that roster space for a rule 5 pick who wouldn't come with his salary and who wouldn't come with his baggage.

The way I see it, the cubs are going to have some need in july. Usually it's bullpen help for competitive teams. If you give Russell away for peanuts in the offseason then when you need someone in july you're dipping into a farm system that's not that amazing. Like I said, if someone is actually willing to offer the cubs something that will help them in 2019 to start the season ok but I really doubt that offer is out there. And if it's not to me, I think you just hold onto him and use him as a july trade chip. If the suspension is gone and maybe he plays well then you have a pretty interesting piece. And if you go into the season assuming he's not an important part of the team by signing say Machado then you're in a great position to make that sort of trade.

Plus there's always the chance that say Baez tears an ACL or something in the first week and suddenly you're fucked.

They lost their MVP for a chunk of the season. Still won 94. Bad reason to hold the trash.

On sale value? This is also a bad reason to hold trash.

Baseball is more family/tradition based. That is why this issue was a part of their contract. Most jobs don’t get involved with unworkable related issues and stay out of it.

So basically MLB players have a higher standard to adhere to.

Now the final decision would be with the Rickett’s. Do they want to make this a reconciliation and try to redeem or walk away.

Just looking at it from a $$$ or value or other issue removes the humanity of it. And sadly that is what this is about.

His wife made him out to be a monster. And if more comes out of this then...

 

[anotheridiot]

I think they are going to trade happ. He's not Zobrist. Zobrist in his prime was a plus defender all over the field. Happ may not even be average in LF if you go by defensive metrics. I said this before but there's just something that doesn't add up about his reduced role in the second half. The offense "broke" in the second half according to Theo. Happ isn't on the roster for his glove. He's there for his bat. So, why if you're having issues scoring does his role get reduced when you can't score runs? They didn't trust him enough to get out of the funk and went out and got Murphy. If you don't trust Happ enough to work through the issues in 2018 why would that change in 2019?

If you read between the lines there's something going on there. At least that's my read on the situation. Plus even if i'm reading into stuff that isn't there, when realistically is Happ ever going to start? He's not a better hitter than Schwarber now and he probably doesn't have as big an upside as Schwarber either. Chances are you're likely going to see Heyward in CF and he's not getting moved. RF is likely going to be Zobrist or Bryant or maybe Harper but he's not who I'd get.

At that point he's at best a 4th OF but again why would you keep him over Almora? Happ probably has more trade value than Almora and Almora is a better fit for the 4th OF role. Joe typically doesn't run 5 OF's because he typically has 8 guys in the pen. And you're likely not going to have room for Happ as an infielder.

I still go back to the fact they drafted a guy who was primarily a second baseman when they drafted Happ, not an outfielder. Yes, he even played some SS, but he was mainly a 2B man. If we are keeping a guy JUST FOR HIS GLOVE, its Bote over Happ for the infield. Hell, Bote made that great diving catch his first game in left field too.

But then again, they drafted a catcher in Schwarber when he projected to be a DH.

That is the main difference for me. When they had Russell and Baez, there was no chance to put anyone at 2B over Baez. When he got a day off or covered Short, it gave the option for Zobrist, LaStella, Bote, Happ to play 2B.

That is what I see going into spring training next season, not only do you have those 4 to play 2b, I am cure Nico is gonna get some time there too. Bruno, young, chesney and our prospect of the year Vosler is going to have to learn somewhere other than 3B. For this we will put Heyward in his worst defensive position in CF? Man I sure hope he opts out.

 

[beckdawg]

Baseball is more family/tradition based. That is why this issue was a part of their contract. Most jobs don’t get involved with unworkable related issues and stay out of it.

You're buying into the rhetoric. Baseball isn't as much a family as you're making it out to be. Sure teams give that perception out there but teams take in bad people all the time. The astros are probably going to the world series and they traded for a guy who got a longer suspension for DV than Russell did. So spare me the talk of morality and family being the highest importance. The fact is you're not going to have any job where 25 people are family. And even if you did work some where that is literal family chances are one out of 25 is someone you're not going to like and someone who is a bad person.

 

[TL1961]

I recall Hub Arkush commenting on NFL rosters, and saying they're pretty consistent year to year. "5% of the players are genuinely really good people, 5% are the biggest a-holes you've ever met, and 90% are in between."

 

[fatbeard]

You're buying into the rhetoric. Baseball isn't as much a family as you're making it out to be. Sure teams give that perception out there but teams take in bad people all the time. The astros are probably going to the world series and they traded for a guy who got a longer suspension for DV than Russell did. So spare me the talk of morality and family being the highest importance. The fact is you're not going to have any job where 25 people are family. And even if you did work some where that is literal family chances are one out of 25 is someone you're not going to like and someone who is a bad person.

Ryne Sandberg's first wife says, "Hi!"

 

[beckdawg]

Ryne Sandberg's first wife says, "Hi!"

Baseball should be like fleetwood mac where everyone is sleeping together and on drugs but it produces one of the best records of all time.

 

[beckdawg]

So I started today wondering if the cubs FO is just worse than Houston's. I'll spare you a lengthy conversation about how deep into the rabbit hole I went but spoilers.... I'm not sure they are. One thing struck me as really interesting. Houston had 3! position players over 2 fWAR. Bregman was a huge 7.6 fWAR. Altuve was 4.8. And Springer was 2.9. Next highest is Correra at 1.6. Then I looked at their pitching... Verlander(6.8), Cole(6.3), Keuchel(3.6), Morton(3.1) and McCullers Jr.(2.5).

The reason this struck me as interesting was it feels like the cubs have a lot of shit wrong based on the way the season ended. But the cubs had 7! position players over 2 fWAR. Baez(5.4), Zobrist(3.6), Schwarber(3.2), Rizzo(2.9), Contreras(2.6), Bryant(2.3) and Heyward(2.0). And that's with Rizzo and Bryant having down years. Those two could easily match Bregman and Altuve. In terms of pitching, the cubs got 3.2 from hendricks, 1.6 from Lester(4.39 FIP really dinged him despite good results), 1.5 from Hamels, 1.4 from Q and 1.4 from Monty.

I think you can perhaps argue the Astros have a better starting staff than the cubs did but overall the difference in the teams statistically to me looks like bad luck vs good luck or at least meeting expectations. Cubs had the 5th most fWAR by position players with the dodgers being the only NL team better. FWAR didn't like their starters as they pitched better than their FIP but in terms of ERA, cubs finished 10th in starter ERA and 6th in the NL. Their bullpen ERA was second in the majors and 1st in the NL.

I guess what I'm getting at here is given how the season ended it's easy to think they need to retool a lot. And clearly there are situations the cubs hitters don't do well with. But they did all of what I listed above without a healthy Darvish and without their two best hitters having typical seasons. I mean that's legitimately about as bad as a season can go and they still won 95 games. If you add a Machado or Harper to this team.... christ...

 

[beckdawg]

Aslo FWIW, it sorta puts Heyward's season into perspective. He'd be the 4th most valuable hitter on Houston were he on that team. He'd be the 6th most valuable hitter on Boston. He'd be the 5th most valuable hitter on MIL. In LA he'd only be the 9th best hitter. But it's just crazy to think how cubs fans value Heyward when you compare his value to where he'd fit on other teams. And obviously he only played 127 games.

 

[CSF77]

I think that they are on the right path with moving on with the hitting coach. But stil eventually these guys have to hit and not push blame onto the coach.

I almost feel that the issue is with the player make up vs a coach issue. A coach should be there to help ID a hitters mechanic flaws in their swing and to readjust their swing back to a proper mechanic. Now this would be more of a minor fix. Like he is pulling his hip and not staying back on the pitch vs redesigning a hitter.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jesse Rogers is reporting that the Cubs new hitting coach is Anthony Iopace, most recently hitting coach for the rangers but who worked in the Cubs FO from 2013-2015.

 

[beckdawg]

Jesse Rogers is reporting that the Cubs new hitting coach is Anthony Iopace, most recently hitting coach for the rangers but who worked in the Cubs FO from 2013-2015.

Consider me underwhelmed. Ranges hit .249/.321/.423 for non-pitchers from 2016-2018 for a 93 wRC+ playing in an offensive oriented park.

 

[chibears55]

Consider me underwhelmed. Ranges hit .249/.321/.423 for non-pitchers from 2016-2018 for a 93 wRC+ playing in an offensive oriented park.

Sounds like a guy who basically here for a 1 year tryout or whatever..
Maddon dont get extended, new manager gonna bring in his own coaches

 

[fatbeard]

Consider me underwhelmed. Ranges hit .249/.321/.423 for non-pitchers from 2016-2018 for a 93 wRC+ playing in an offensive oriented park.

Eh, that roster is devoid of real hitting talent. Gallo is Adam Dunn, after that you've got Choo and Profar.

 

[beckdawg]

Eh, that roster is devoid of real hitting talent. Gallo is Adam Dunn, after that you've got Choo and Profar.

Maybe but it's not exactly like the guy is a slam dunk no doubt hire. And those numbers were with Beltre playing 366 and Andrus playing 402. Lucroy went there and got a hell of a lot worse. Mazara hasn't really progressed on his progress hype. I question the real impact a hitting coach has but even acknowledging that it doesn't seem like the rangers offense was pointed in the right direction.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Sounds like a guy who basically here for a 1 year tryout or whatever..
Maddon dont get extended, new manager gonna bring in his own coaches

There re likely several things going on here 1) This sounds like a FO hire. Iopace worked for the Cubs so they know his philosophy and he's said to be closer to John Mallee than Chili Davis. We all figured that would be the general direction so no surprise 2) With Maddon going into a contract year it was always going to be tough to land a big name so you'd be left with an up and comer or a guy like Dave Magadan (who had been mentioned a lot) who hadn't worked in a bit 3) I'd pay attention to who tehy hire as the assistant hitting coach and their philosophies and specialties. In this case that might be important.

It's tough to look at a hitting coach on a bad team. There just isn't much talent there so the FO was obviously looking at other things.

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/10...oking-like-cubs-choice-for-hitting-coach-gig/