Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

You're missing my point. I have no issue with having a good pen but what good team are paying 2 relievers $10+ mil? Dodgers aren't. Jansen is over $10 mil but Ryan Madson is the next highest paid reliever making $7.6 mil. Houston isn't paying any reliever more than $10 mil. The Brewers aren't paying anyone more than $9 mil. Boston is paying Krimbrel $13 mil with their next highest reliever making under $5 mil....etc The only competitive team paying their bullpen that much is the yankees.

It's just a very bad investment in money to pay 2 relievers that much money. If you can get Miller for $6-7 mil then sure go for him. But I don't think that's what he's going to be asking for. He's going to want closer money and I'm not paying him that if it's me.

Cubs have been poor at development there. Speaks for it self.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs have been poor at development there. Speaks for it self.

That's an issue but you don't solve it by just throwing ridiculous money at the problem. Just as an example, i'd try to go out and get Ken Giles in a trade before I would give Miller more than $10 mil. He's projected at $6.6 mil and the Blue jays aren't going to be good next year. Obviously Giles isn't without issues but you're not bringing him in to be the closer. You're brining him in as a BP arm who can close if shit hits the fan.

Plus I already think Martin for Chatwood has some sense to it so adding Giles and a player or two wouldn't be that much of a stretch.

 

[CSF77]

That's an issue but you don't solve it by just throwing ridiculous money at the problem. Just as an example, i'd try to go out and get Ken Giles in a trade before I would give Miller more than $10 mil. He's projected at $6.6 mil and the Blue jays aren't going to be good next year. Obviously Giles isn't without issues but you're not bringing him in to be the closer. You're brining him in as a BP arm who can close if shit hits the fan.

Plus I already think Martin for Chatwood has some sense to it so adding Giles and a player or two wouldn't be that much of a stretch.

You solve it by investing into the future and into the now.
Going cheap is a waste of money

 

[beckdawg]

You solve it by investing into the future and into the now.
Going cheap is a waste of money

Miller is gonna be 34 next year and has knee problems now. That's not a safe guy to be investing $10 mil+ in over 3-4 years

 

[DanTown]

The history of long-term contracts for any reliever is crazy bad. Keith Law did a post on it a year or so ago and it was like a 85%+ failure rate on getting any sort of positive value. With relievers, I'd much rather sign four guys for $2-$3 million than I would sign one guy for $10.

If the Cubs sign a guy like Harper or Machado then I'd definitely try and do a Schwarber trade to Minnesota where you get a decent prospect and Taylor Rogers back. Four years of control, lefty, solid guy who could make a ton of sense.

I mean the Cubs bullpen got super hurt and that's really when it showed it's poor depth. They also have't seen any positive development the past two years with their highest relievers in the organization (Edwards, Maples, etc).

How different would the bullpen look if Edwards took a step and became more consistent and was a future closer? Then all of the sudden you'd be stacked.

 

[DanTown]

If they are willing to spend 10M on Morrow with health issues 10M on Miller is a bargain

Andrew Miller FIP / K-BB last three years

2016 - 1.68 / 13.67
2017 - 1.99 / 4.52
2018 - 3.51 / 2.81

That's not a guy that is someone I want to give any sort of major money or years commitment to.

 

[chibears55]

Wouldn't surprise me if they get off to a rough start, Theo makes the move sooner rather then later

https://twitter.com/realcubsinsider/status/1054113623273099264?s=19

 

[chibears55]

Andrew Miller FIP / K-BB last three years

2016 - 1.68 / 13.67
2017 - 1.99 / 4.52
2018 - 3.51 / 2.81

That's not a guy that is someone I want to give any sort of major money or years commitment to.

Correct me if im wrong but the whole thing with Theo and Free Agency is that he wont pay big on an over 30 guy based on past performances.. right ?

So why would he pay big for a 34 YO FA reliever that probably not going to be what he was a couple years ago?

 

[kapooncha]

Miller is gonna be 34 next year and has knee problems now. That's not a safe guy to be investing $10 mil+ in over 3-4 years

Were Morrow and Darvish safe guys to be investing in?

 

[beckdawg]

Correct me if im wrong but the whole thing with Theo and Free Agency is that he wont pay big on an over 30 guy based on past performances.. right ?

So why would he pay big for a 34 YO FA reliever that probably not going to be what he was a couple years ago?

This basically but also the issue I see at play here is the cubs almost certainly are trading some one. And simply put if you're trading someone it's not going to be for starting pitching. It's probably not going to be for a positional player because if you're trading say Happ it's because you are bringing someone in. People have suggested trading for prospects but you really don't trade MLB players for prospects when you're in a winning window. So that effectively leaves you with trading for relievers.

I mentioned Giles before but I'd honestly be comfortable with something like Russell Martin and Giles + some salary relief for Chatwood and Happ. That is probably a bit richer than I'd like to pay so maybe you ask for a low level prospect back but I'd really rather do that then give a 34 year old a bunch of money.

 

[CSF77]

Depth:

IF: Bryant, Baez, Zobrist, Rizzo, Contreras

OF: Schwarber, Almora, Heyward

Bench: Happ, Schwarber, LaStella, Cartini

Rotation: Lester, Hendricks, Q, Darvish, Chatwood

Pen: Morrow, Edwards, Cishek, Smyly, Montgomery, Kintzler, Duesing

Option: Hamels, Strop

pulling both puts the team at 26.

Now I would start small. LaStella I would look to trade. He is getting pricey for a PH. Bote would save 1 mil.

not picking up Hamels opt pays him 6 mil. Then offering him a 2/28M after. That pushes Chatwood into the pen.

Adding a pen arm like Chavez would cause 1 pitcher to be cast off. So say Kintzler holds his 5 mil player they still have to pay him. Same with Duesing at 3.5M

So I'm in the opinion that they have to fix their problems first before thinking on making trades or signing players.

I believe that they should Add a arm to Morrow and Strop. Then cut Kintzler and Duesing and eat those contracts. Miller would be a low buy IMO. Smyly also is a interesting late inning arm if they chose to go that direction.

Regardless $207,407,143 is the projected as is. They are going over anyways. Might as well make it worth it.

 

[The Bandit]

Saw an article of a possible Russell plus happ or Monty for andreleton Simmons swap with the angels. I like the idea, if the angels were willing to pull the trigger.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

 

[kapooncha]

Saw an article of a possible Russell plus happ or Monty for andreleton Simmons swap with the angels. I like the idea, if the angels were willing to pull the trigger.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

How many years of control would we have on him?

 

[The Bandit]

How many years of control would we have on him?

2 years at I believe 13 and 15.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Depth:

IF: Bryant, Baez, Zobrist, Rizzo, Contreras

OF: Schwarber, Almora, Heyward

Bench: Happ, Schwarber, LaStella, Cartini

Rotation: Lester, Hendricks, Q, Darvish, Chatwood

Pen: Morrow, Edwards, Cishek, Smyly, Montgomery, Kintzler, Duesing

Option: Hamels, Strop

pulling both puts the team at 26.

Now I would start small. LaStella I would look to trade. He is getting pricey for a PH. Bote would save 1 mil.

not picking up Hamels opt pays him 6 mil. Then offering him a 2/28M after. That pushes Chatwood into the pen.

Adding a pen arm like Chavez would cause 1 pitcher to be cast off. So say Kintzler holds his 5 mil player they still have to pay him. Same with Duesing at 3.5M

So I'm in the opinion that they have to fix their problems first before thinking on making trades or signing players.

I believe that they should Add a arm to Morrow and Strop. Then cut Kintzler and Duesing and eat those contracts. Miller would be a low buy IMO. Smyly also is a interesting late inning arm if they chose to go that direction.

Regardless $207,407,143 is the projected as is. They are going over anyways. Might as well make it worth it.

Without Russell on the team you can't keep LaStella or Bote. You'll have to get a backup SS unless you get another IF that canplay the position be it Machado, what have you. The fact that this team hasn't had to carry a light hitting defensive SS type off the bench has been a huge boon.

Also all this worrying about the bullpen when Theo has shown year after year that he can assemble a good one to start the year and augment it throughout the season when it inevitably goes wrong. Bullpen pitchers are the most unpredictable players on a team, they will fail at the most inopportune times. Somehow Theo seems to find guys throughout the season that can step in to fill in. The only glaring need for me in the pen is a guy who can backup Morrow in case of injury, someone that's closed with success before. The rest will take care of itself.

 

[anotheridiot]

Bote can cover shortstop, as well as 3B 2B LF, probably 1B. Third option is Zobrist. Its not the end of the world where you need to sign a SS only. If Baez goes down, they will probably bring Nico up early.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Without Russell on the team you can't keep LaStella or Bote. You'll have to get a backup SS unless you get another IF that canplay the position be it Machado, what have you. The fact that this team hasn't had to carry a light hitting defensive SS type off the bench has been a huge boon.

Also all this worrying about the bullpen when Theo has shown year after year that he can assemble a good one to start the year and augment it throughout the season when it inevitably goes wrong. Bullpen pitchers are the most unpredictable players on a team, they will fail at the most inopportune times. Somehow Theo seems to find guys throughout the season that can step in to fill in. The only glaring need for me in the pen is a guy who can backup Morrow in case of injury, someone that's closed with success before. The rest will take care of itself.

Strop is a closer.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Bote can cover shortstop, as well as 3B 2B LF, probably 1B. Third option is Zobrist. Its not the end of the world where you need to sign a SS only. If Baez goes down, they will probably bring Nico up early.

Have you seen Bote play SS? Are you comfortable with him there if Baez misses two weeks to an injury especially considering that his backup will likely be a scarp heap guy they stick at AA? I don't buy that you would see Hoerner any earlier than very late in the season. What you propose sounds like a recipe for disaster.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Strop is a closer.

I would agree with that but his best role is set up. I'd still like to see another guy that has some experience on the roster.

 

[CSF77]

Bote can cover shortstop, as well as 3B 2B LF, probably 1B. Third option is Zobrist. Its not the end of the world where you need to sign a SS only. If Baez goes down, they will probably bring Nico up early.

Bote at SS is about the same as Schwarber at Catcher. Pants on fire and house burning before that happened