Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[Cubbiefan23]

Hey guys it's my first time posting in here. Just wanted to say I enjoy reading your guys' ideas and logic behind them. I have a few things and I'd like to know what you guys think!

1. As much as I'd love them to sign Bryce Harper, I don't love the cost. It's the type of contract that severely hinders a team in the long run.

2. I would love to see them try and acquire Tommy Pham from TB. His cheap cost (projected 4 mil this year in arb), 3 yrs of control are very appealing. I don't believe it would take a ton to get him either. He could stabilize our top of the order, something we've been sorely missing since Dex left. His high on base ability, good power and base stealing would fit perfectly atop our batting order in my opinion. I'm sure a lot of people have looked at the stats and said our lead off spot did fine this and it did to some degree (I've always thought the last 2 years Zobrist was our best lead off option). But the rotating people in and out of that spot has created holes in a lot of other spots in the lineup. Plus he doesn't get along with STL! Perfect for me! Now I've heard and read he has a degenerative eye disease which brings in some risk but, I believe his production speaks for itself. It clearly hasn't bothered him since he's had surgery done. Theo's quote "It’s time to stop evaluating in terms of talent and start doing it in terms of production.” He's absolutely right. Pham produces.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Hey guys it's my first time posting in here. Just wanted to say I enjoy reading your guys' ideas and logic behind them. I have a few things and I'd like to know what you guys think!

1. As much as I'd love them to sign Bryce Harper, I don't love the cost. It's the type of contract that severely hinders a team in the long run.

2. I would love to see them try and acquire Tommy Pham from TB. His cheap cost (projected 4 mil this year in arb), 3 yrs of control are very appealing. I don't believe it would take a ton to get him either. He could stabilize our top of the order, something we've been sorely missing since Dex left. His high on base ability, good power and base stealing would fit perfectly atop our batting order in my opinion. I'm sure a lot of people have looked at the stats and said our lead off spot did fine this and it did to some degree (I've always thought the last 2 years Zobrist was our best lead off option). But the rotating people in and out of that spot has created holes in a lot of other spots in the lineup. Plus he doesn't get along with STL! Perfect for me! Now I've heard and read he has a degenerative eye disease which brings in some risk but, I believe his production speaks for itself. It clearly hasn't bothered him since he's had surgery done. Theo's quote "It’s time to stop evaluating in terms of talent and start doing it in terms of production.” He's absolutely right. Pham produces.

Pham's a nice thought but TB loves him and are very unlikely to part with him. That's a team that could easily be a WC contender in 2019 and they're off to a good start with the Zunino acquisition.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't see Harper doing it.

As for Trout, he either resigns with the Angels or heads to Philly. He ain't in this for the dough.

I don't see him signing with the Angels, and I would say Philly or the Yankees myself but I get ya. Everyone's in it for the money though. He's going to have a chance to be the highest paid player in sports. He's not passing that up.

 

[Cubbiefan23]

Pham's a nice thought but TB loves him and are very unlikely to part with him. That's a team that could easily be a WC contender in 2019 and they're off to a good start with the Zunino acquisition.

definitely right, they can contend for a WC in 2019. As far as the Zunino acquisition, I'm not a fan. The guy can't hit his body weight. Really good defensively yes but offensively he's horrible. We'd definitely have to give them a decent package but what I meant by not a ton is a ton of minor league talent, not that we have a ton anyway. This would just be my mock trade proposal and why it would make sense for them:

Ian Happ
Dillon Maples
Mark Zagunis
Manuel Rondon
For
Tommy Pham
Kyle Bird

Happ gives them a cheaper CC player with the same upside but they do have a decent amount of lefties so Almora might be the better fit. They took on Glasnow from Pitt with his control problems and have seem to have turned him around, maybe they can do the same for Maples. Zagunis could be a good 4th OF type and fits their mold of player. Same with Rondon as a lefty swing type guy. I'd like to try and get Bird back in the deal as well since we are giving them a lot more control potentially. He's a converted starter. Left handed, isn't a top prospect but put up really strong numbers in the minors last year and could be a much needed lefty in the pen in the future possibly as soon as next year.

 

[CSF77]

If Trout is the standard for "earning his wage", then literally only 2-3 baseball players in history have earned their wage. How do you justify signing anyone if your benchmark is going to be a once-in-a-century type outlier?

35m per year is what he is making. He put up 9.8 fWAR 3.5M per WAR. I would say that he earned his fair value.

To expect either to put up more than 5 fWAR would be asking much. Basically what Goldschmidt put up. Which I see as a fair comp. Current value 5 fWAR is at 35M allegedly. Realistically 5M is a fair value for fWAR. So a 5 fWAR player makes 25M per. That way a 9 fWAR player like Trout would be at 45M per which is unobtainable but 35M is a realistic cap.

That way players who are putting up 4 fWAR less than the pegged 35M imaginary cap are not reaching it.

Think of it. You have 3 Baez type players around 5 fWAR taking up 105M None are complete players but are soaking payroll dry.

As long as there is a lux tax they have to reel in what a point of WAR pays out as. So 35M per for either is ridicules. Honestly they are worth 30 per based off of age. Even that doesn't justify. Heyward was the 4th best projected at his F/A point and he ended up a busted signing.

 

[CSF77]

At $8 mil per WAR Harper will need to post 43.75 WAR to "earn" the deal. I think he's capable of three 8-9 WAR seasons in that span and several between the 4-5 WAR mark. Sorry, I think he'll earn it.

Mike Trout has completed four years of a $144.5 mil contract meaning he need to post 18 WAR to "earn" it. With two years left to go he's posted 35.6. He's ridiculously underpaid which is why he'll probably get $500 mil in two years.

As above. The value of WAR doesn't work with a lux tax. What it does is cause teams to focus on 1-2 mega's then toss in filler types because those 2-3 guys are up at 100M.

It basically takes the small market out of the league in general. They are forced to play the first 7 year game and can only buy scrub F/A's.

That is why there should be a fixed value set. If pay roll can go up to 206. Then that means that amount can be converted to a WAR value.

So 206M is the cap.

If a point of WAR is valued as 8M that means a team can hold up to 25.75 WAR value. Honestly that is a Ace 2 big bats taking up 20 WAR. Leaves 5 WAR for filler. If they have a solid farm that that can defer costs it helps get another stud.

at 5 per 41.2 fWAR. they can assemble. Which means better quality teams.

That is why it makes more sense to limit

 

[TL1961]

Hey guys it's my first time posting in here. Just wanted to say I enjoy reading your guys' ideas and logic behind them. I have a few things and I'd like to know what you guys think!

1. As much as I'd love them to sign Bryce Harper, I don't love the cost. It's the type of contract that severely hinders a team in the long run.

2. I would love to see them try and acquire Tommy Pham from TB. His cheap cost (projected 4 mil this year in arb), 3 yrs of control are very appealing. I don't believe it would take a ton to get him either. He could stabilize our top of the order, something we've been sorely missing since Dex left. His high on base ability, good power and base stealing would fit perfectly atop our batting order in my opinion. I'm sure a lot of people have looked at the stats and said our lead off spot did fine this and it did to some degree (I've always thought the last 2 years Zobrist was our best lead off option). But the rotating people in and out of that spot has created holes in a lot of other spots in the lineup. Plus he doesn't get along with STL! Perfect for me! Now I've heard and read he has a degenerative eye disease which brings in some risk but, I believe his production speaks for itself. It clearly hasn't bothered him since he's had surgery done. Theo's quote "It’s time to stop evaluating in terms of talent and start doing it in terms of production.” He's absolutely right. Pham produces.

St. Louis got significantly better the minute Tommy Pham left.

 

[Cubbiefan23]

St. Louis got significantly better the minute Tommy Pham left.

No they got significantly better when they brought up their entire triple a rotation and pitched them out of the pen.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

As above. The value of WAR doesn't work with a lux tax. What it does is cause teams to focus on 1-2 mega's then toss in filler types because those 2-3 guys are up at 100M.

It basically takes the small market out of the league in general. They are forced to play the first 7 year game and can only buy scrub F/A's.

That is why there should be a fixed value set. If pay roll can go up to 206. Then that means that amount can be converted to a WAR value.

So 206M is the cap.

If a point of WAR is valued as 8M that means a team can hold up to 25.75 WAR value. Honestly that is a Ace 2 big bats taking up 20 WAR. Leaves 5 WAR for filler. If they have a solid farm that that can defer costs it helps get another stud.

at 5 per 41.2 fWAR. they can assemble. Which means better quality teams.

That is why it makes more sense to limit

Honestly, I just don't care much for small market teams. I can admire Tampa Bay getting unconventional to compete but I also don't want star players in their prime playing there. I want those players in LA, NY, Chicago, Boston and places like Philadelphia, Atlanta and Houston when they have their shit together because those are the big TV markets. I suppose you could include St. Louis if you want because they outperform their market in TV ratings. The fact that baseball's best player doesn't play in October is shameful. I also want players to make the maximum amount of money they can.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly, I just don't care much for small market teams. I can admire Tampa Bay getting unconventional to compete but I also don't want star players in their prime playing there. I want those players in LA, NY, Chicago, Boston and places like Philadelphia, Atlanta and Houston when they have their shit together because those are the big TV markets. I suppose you could include St. Louis if you want because they outperform their market in TV ratings. The fact that baseball's best player doesn't play in October is shameful. I also want players to make the maximum amount of money they can.

I get it kinda.

What I want is a competitive field. The game will kill itself if only 5 teams are competitive every year because payroll dictates.

Basically it will collapse

 

[chibears55]

Heard Padres and Cubs could be making a deal today...
Padres need to clear some 40 man space

Good chance to move Russell for prospects if they want

 

[CSF77]

Heard Padres and Cubs could be making a deal today...
Padres need to clear some 40 man space

Good chance to move Russell for prospects if they want

With Fernando in AAA and the #2 prospect in baseball IDK if they would target Russell. If Russell was a 1 year then I would get it more. But getting hamstrung not so much.

Happ on the other hand I get. Maybe targeting Montgomery to fill a rotation spot also.

I know both teams have talked in the past but Tatis is on the brink and weighing down his spot with a player that may end up hard to move is bad business

 

[CSF77]

Cubs are at 38 right now

Guys that should get protection:

8. Justin Steele, LHP
17. Trevor Clifton, RHP

So unless they start cutting guys off the 40 I wouldn’t sweat much pre-winter meetings

 

[beckdawg]

Heard Padres and Cubs could be making a deal today...
Padres need to clear some 40 man space

Good chance to move Russell for prospects if they want

That's not how these trades work. San Diego wouldn't trade for MORE people on the 40 man of which russell would be with prospects. The way these things play out is the team with an over abundance of guys(SD) trades them for low level talent who isn't rule 5 eligible. I suppose if you really wanted to make a stretch you could suggest this is consolidating multiple 40 man players into one with Russell but that doesn't make much sense either because quite frankly russell probably isn't worth multiple MLB quality players given his current suspension.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

With Fernando in AAA and the #2 prospect in baseball IDK if they would target Russell. If Russell was a 1 year then I would get it more. But getting hamstrung not so much.

Happ on the other hand I get. Maybe targeting Montgomery to fill a rotation spot also.

I know both teams have talked in the past but Tatis is on the brink and weighing down his spot with a player that may end up hard to move is bad business

Unless they're trading Tatis in a package for Syndergaard which is another rumor making the rounds.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs claimed Ian Clarkin from the sox. He was a half decent prospect 1-2 years ago. Here's mlb's scouting on him from 2017(didn't show up on the sox top 30 currently)

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
Clarkin won the gold-medal game for Team USA at the 2012 world 18-and-under championships, a prelude to becoming the third of three Yankees first-round picks a year later. Signed for $1,650,100 as the 33rd overall pick, he missed most of his pro debut with a sprained ankle but finished his first full pro season in Class A Advanced. He missed the 2015 regular season with elbow issues, however, before returning in the Arizona Fall League.

Clarkin has regained the low-90s fastball he had when he was fully healthy in 2014, but he doesn't have the same plus curveball. His changeup is now his best secondary offering, and he also has added a slider that rivals his present curve. Known for his precocious feel for pitching, he's throwing more strikes than ever this year.

Though Clarkin pitched just 80 innings in his first three pro seasons, he has surpassed that total in 2016 and is still advanced for his age. If he can stay healthy, he could start to move quickly and eventually become a mid-rotation starter.

 

[beckdawg]

Unless they're trading Tatis in a package for Syndergaard which is another rumor making the rounds.

Some what plausible but I don't see it personally. The mets supposedly want a ridiculous package to move him and given his health of late I doubt anyone is going to pay it. More over, if you play in Petco do you even need that quality of pitching? I mean sure it's great to have but I think they'd be more inclined to have the bat more so than the pitcher.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I get it kinda.

What I want is a competitive field. The game will kill itself if only 5 teams are competitive every year because payroll dictates.

Basically it will collapse

I agree with that. You need to have 12-15 teams competitive every year. The thing is it's not all the small market factor. The Mets are in a huge market and don't spend and they have a much bigger market share vs the Yankees than the White Sox do against the Cubs and franly the White Sox should spend too as their kids progress. Then of course you have big market teams who are foolish spenders like the Angels. MLB has teams in the top 17 TV markets and 2 teams in 3 of them. That's 20 teams that should be winning clubs, even if you figure that 5 of those will be in rebuild-retooling efforts, that's your 15 right there and that's not including a team like St. Louis that perennially contends or the smart execs in small markets that can make it happen with disciplined spending and smart scouting. Sure those can't contend long, but it's enough. To me there should be more teeth in the franchise agreements to prevent things like the league's best player never playing in October or larger market teams like Oakland collecting competitive balance payments (that's fixed but it went on too long).

 

[CSF77]

Unless they're trading Tatis in a package for Syndergaard which is another rumor making the rounds.

New Mets GM said that he would have to get blown away. If it was Myers and Tatis then I would listen. Myers needs to go back to 1B after last year’s injuries

 

[CSF77]

I agree with that. You need to have 12-15 teams competitive every year. The thing is it's not all the small market factor. The Mets are in a huge market and don't spend and they have a much bigger market share vs the Yankees than the White Sox do against the Cubs and franly the White Sox should spend too as their kids progress. Then of course you have big market teams who are foolish spenders like the Angels. MLB has teams in the top 17 TV markets and 2 teams in 3 of them. That's 20 teams that should be winning clubs, even if you figure that 5 of those will be in rebuild-retooling efforts, that's your 15 right there and that's not including a team like St. Louis that perennially contends or the smart execs in small markets that can make it happen with disciplined spending and smart scouting. Sure those can't contend long, but it's enough. To me there should be more teeth in the franchise agreements to prevent things like the league's best player never playing in October or larger market teams like Oakland collecting competitive balance payments (that's fixed but it went on too long).

Honestly having a set player salary based off a % of the current Lux tax is a start.

So we are at 206M. Currently 35M is the top player. About 17%. But the tax is increasing so they could at the next CBA say 15% of current lux is the highest AAV. Then from that they can set a fair standard for WAR as a guideline.

I doubt that they would ever get a hard cap like other sports but if they don’t find a guildline what happens is they will end up 1-2 all starts per team because a 3rd will never be able to be pushed under tax.

I like the Idea of 5M per WAR. It makes 35M a plateau for 7 WAR players. To me if a guy is putting up 7 or more yes he deserves it. 5 no. Garza put up 5 WAR with the Cubs. Imagine being forced to pay him 35 per vs the 55M contract he got...It would have been a disaster.

End of the day the agents are greedy. The players want to win. Having no talent around yourself makes you suck and the player pays the agent. So it is what it is.