Offseason rumors/discussion thread

beckdawg

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Heyward hits like a centerfielder but he doesn't play defense like one..
He an ok glove there but doesn't have the speed to cover all that ground as an everyday player in CF

Disagree. He's perfectly average in CF. In his career over 647.2 innings he's +10 DRS and 13.5 UZR/150. I would argue given he's aging up you negate some of that but last year in 154.1 innings he was +3 DRS and 5.4 UZR/150. For reference, Almora who's widely considered a very strong defensive CF was +9 DRS and 2.9 UZR/150 over 918.1 innings. DRS is a counting stat so the pace Heyward was on is actually better than Almora.
 

CSF77

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I was going to say Fowler was better or worse than Heyward?

The arguement on this top flight D is tired. Not to mention the last month of the season it was Heyward in CF, Zo in RF except when a lefty was starting. Then Almora played. Even Joe went there to get more O.

Shit is really tired
 

chibears55

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Disagree. He's perfectly average in CF. In his career over 647.2 innings he's +10 DRS and 13.5 UZR/150. I would argue given he's aging up you negate some of that but last year in 154.1 innings he was +3 DRS and 5.4 UZR/150. For reference, Almora who's widely considered a very strong defensive CF was +9 DRS and 2.9 UZR/150 over 918.1 innings. DRS is a counting stat so the pace Heyward was on is actually better than Almora.
Heyward stat is in limited playing time in CF, which he could be ok/average with because Maddon played him to the matchups..

I'm talking about him being out there as an everyday player, where there more chances of balls in the gaps etc. that he won't get too as a regular CFer would
 

CSF77

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Heyward stat is in limited playing time in CF, which he could be ok/average with because Maddon played him to the matchups..

I'm talking about him being out there as an everyday player, where there more chances of balls in the gaps etc. that he won't get too as a regular CFer would

I’m pretty sure Heyward would excell under every day play. He has talent and intelligence working in his favor. All he would need is experience to develop muscle memory.
 

chibears55

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I’m pretty sure Heyward would excell under every day play. He has talent and intelligence working in his favor. All he would need is experience to develop muscle memory.
The guy 6'5 250 pounds
He built like a power hitting corner OFer but hits like a CFer

I'm not saying he gonna suck out there

He'll make the routine plays but he'll probably make some routine plays for regular CFers into tough ones, and probably wont get to many tough ones like a regular CFer could ..

I just dont see him as an everyday CFer, spot starts out there, ok, but not everyday
 

beckdawg

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Heyward stat is in limited playing time in CF, which he could be ok/average with because Maddon played him to the matchups..

I'm talking about him being out there as an everyday player, where there more chances of balls in the gaps etc. that he won't get too as a regular CFer would

Even if you're right and believe me I don't agree with that, he's not going to play every day anyways. We know this. That's not how joe operates.
 

CSF77

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Ya. If they play as it it would be Almora every day in CF and Zo at 2B. No way they give AB’s to a scrub UI. When Russell returns then the pieces shift more but you would see Zo in RF and Heyward in CF plenty.

I honestly believe that they should trade Happ though. His D is worse at CF than both Heyward and Almora.
 

chibears55

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Even if you're right and believe me I don't agree with that, he's not going to play every day anyways. We know this. That's not how joe operates.
I dont think he will either..

My response was to who i believe was CFS that suggested him moving to CF every day
 

CSF77

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I dont think he will either..

My response was to who i believe was CFS that suggested him moving to CF every day

He would be a upgrade to Almora. I see it as you are paying Zobrist 14M you have to play him every day. It is his last year of control so it is pointless to try to conserve with him. Then it really comes down to Russell vs Almora on O. Almora is a better hitter but I believe he has capped his talent. Russell has only scratched the surface.
 

beckdawg

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I dont think he will either..

My response was to who i believe was CFS that suggested him moving to CF every day

I don't want to speak for him but what I've been suggesting for quite some time is for them to play Heyward the majority of the time in CF but with the ability to move him to RF should they want Almora in the line up. I mean obviously if they were to sign say Harper that changes the math a bit but my point is more thinking about a rigid line up isn't really that worthwhile IMO. For example, let's say they do sign harper. And also for the sake of argument let's assume they aren't dealing anyone. Presumably your every day line up would be Schwarber/Heyward/Harper. Again, you're not going to get that 160 games. You're probably looking at like 100-120 for those 3 plus a similar amount for Almora. So, what you'd likely see is days Schwarber sits, Almora is in CF and Harper is in LF.

Working under that sort of assumption I think Heyward is perfectly fine in CF. Is he Almora? Probably not but I think you're underestimating how good he is compared to other CF's. Mike Trout is a good not great CF defensively. He was an UZR/150 5.8 last year. On his career Heyward is 13.5 and even if you think that's too small a sample to fully judge, if you say he's the 5.4 he was last year you're roughly talking about him being similarly defensively to trout. For what it's worth, the break down of his uzr was 5.0 for his arm, 0.8 for his range and 0.5 for his error rate. Trout's numbers last year were 1.4, 1.4, and 1.3. Almora's were 0.8, 0.3, and 0.8.

Point here being, Heyward has the range to play CF. He's not AMAZING there like he is in RF but he's still an above average CF and even if he starts to fall off some he's definitely playable there as a starter for the foreseeable future. If you'd prefer someone who's a better defender in CF that's a different debate and probably an interesting one. But honestly the only reason he isn't in CF for his entire career is because they assumed given his size he'd both fill out like a power hitting corner OF would and he'd also ya know hit like one.

Now were you to do the above scenario of Harper/Schwarber/Heyward as an OF that does limit Happ some in the OF but with no La Stella there's going to be more playing time in the infield not to mention they don't have an obvious pinch hitter for typical situations off the bench right now. I mean I think you'd probably take him over Russell. Likewise you'd probably take him over Almora on most days. You're not going to blow your back up catcher PH. And there's maybe one other guy be that bote or some SS type util guy but that's unlikely to be a better hitter than Happ.

Long story short(for me), I think it works. The fact of the matter is they aren't moving Heyward at least not now. It's too cumbersome to do because they aren't likely finding someone who'll just take the contract and he's more valuable to you than to just eat money to be rid of him. And if you're stuck with him for now, he's far more useful in CF where finding a CF who can hit even 100 wRC+ league average is hard.
 

beckdawg

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rule 5 draft is about to star(~15 mins). I'll update if the cubs take anyone or lose anyone but also keep in mind typically speaking if there's anyone worth taking you may see a team take a guy then trade him to a team farther back in the draft order for cash or PTBNL
 

beckdawg

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Cubs passed and thus far through the first round cubs didn't lose anything(edit didn't lose anything in MLB portion)

Minor league portion
Cubs lose David Garner from AA - 26 reliever didn't pitch in 2018
Yapson Gomez from AA - 25 LH reliever

Cubs add
Luis Lugo LHP from KC AA - 24 LH reliever
Rafelin Lorenzo C from PIT AA - 21
Alexander Vargas RHP from NYY
 

beckdawg

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So, nothing all that interesting from the rule 5 as of yet but Vargas scratches my statistical itch. Dude has walked 43 batters in 210.0 innings. That my friends is a 1.8 bb/9 walk rate. His 6.1 k/9 rate isn't great but believe it or not that sort of separation probably plays. For example, you're talking about guys like Mike Leake(5.77/1.65) and guys like
Josh Tomlin(career 6.13/1.33) making that sort of profile work.

Also interesting is Vargas is pretty big(6-4, 203lb). Leake and tomlin are like 5-10. At 21 it's possible there's some growth left in him in terms of velocity
 

anotheridiot

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So, nothing all that interesting from the rule 5 as of yet but Vargas scratches my statistical itch. Dude has walked 43 batters in 210.0 innings. That my friends is a 1.8 bb/9 walk rate. His 6.1 k/9 rate isn't great but believe it or not that sort of separation probably plays. For example, you're talking about guys like Mike Leake(5.77/1.65) and guys like
Josh Tomlin(career 6.13/1.33) making that sort of profile work.

Also interesting is Vargas is pretty big(6-4, 203lb). Leake and tomlin are like 5-10. At 21 it's possible there's some growth left in him in terms of velocity

Just says he throws the ball over the plate, which could translate into a guy that gives up bombs at the next level.
 

beckdawg

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Just says he throws the ball over the plate, which could translate into a guy that gives up bombs at the next level.

That's not what it means at all. I mean sure the guy could end up never becoming something but that is like 70-80 grade control. For reference, Kyle Hendricks who we all know can put the ball wherever the hell he wants most days had a 2.1 walk rate in the minors. He was better in that he had a 7.6 K rate but the point here being guys with this sort of control at the very least usually end up 4A depth and potentially back of the rotation starters.
 

JimJohnson

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Even if you're right and believe me I don't agree with that, he's not going to play every day anyways. We know this. That's not how joe operates.

Well Joe is only going to be here for 1 more season so we should probably start thinking beyond how "Joe operates."
 

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