On Luring free agents.

[CSF77]

I'd say yes to both.

Lester, Arrieta, Liriano, Hendricks, 5th start opening. That would be pretty decent and would increase the 2015 payroll by what, $40-43 million?

I believe it will be Arrieta, F/A, Hendricks, Doubront, Turner.

Arrieta: 9.59 K/9 2.36 BB/9 2.26 FIP
Hendricks 5.27 BB/9 1.68 BB/9 3.32 FIP
Doubront 3.54 K/9 3.10 BB/9 4.66 FIP
Turner 4.41 K/9 2.60 BB/9 4.52 FIP

Wada: 7.40 SO/9 2.47 BB/9 3.75 FIP
Wood 7.57 K/9 3.94 BB/9 4.38 FIP
Jackson 7.87 K/9 4.03 BB/9 4.45 FIP

Looking it over Turner kept his BB/9 respectable at 2.60. His K/9 was under achieving. He needs an out pitch. He has some potential if he can define himself as a pitcher next year.

Doubront: His K/9 just sucks. plain and simple. 4.66 FIP. That will catch up to him as it did with Wood. Iwould rather have them give Wood 5 mil.


Now an interesting combo IMO:

Let Wada go as a F/A to rid his option but then sign him to a 1 year deal as a starter. His FIP was 3.75 with is better than the 4.00 league avg. At that point shoot hard at Maeda. With the league down grading him to mid tier starter he will not be a huge target as Tanaka was last year. Which is a good thing for the Cubs as they shouldn't get into a huge bidding war over him.

Now if they did that it puts the rotation at:
Arreta, Maeda, Hendricks, Wada, Turner. Not at this point they could resign Hammel and not sign Turrner. Looking at Turners numbers they really are not losing much. Unless he develops a out pitch that is.

I would put him in the pen and resign Hammels then for a 1 year deal and see if Turner can develop into something then.

 

[CSF77]

David Price: 2.78 Fip 9.82 K/9 1.38 BB/9 6.1 WAR (Q-offer)

Max Scherzer: 2.85 Fip 10.29 K/9 2.57 BB/9 5.6 WAR (Q- offer)
Jon Lester: 2.80 Fip 9.01 K/9 1.97 BB/9 6.1 WAR
James Shields: 3.59 Fip 7.14 K/9 1.74 BB/9 3.7 WAR (Q-offer)

Brandon McCarthy: 3.55 Fip 7.88 K/9 1.49 BB/9 3.0 WAR
Ervin Santana: 3.39 Fip 8.22 K/9 2.89 BB/9 2.8 WAR
Francisco Liriano: 3.59 Fip 9.70 K/9 4.49 BB/9 1.6 WAR


Japan Stats:
Kenta Maeda: 7.7 K/9 2.0 BB/9

One of the things that stands out to me in looking at top shelf arms is their BB/9. Liriano has run a 4.49 BB/9. That has been holding him back from becoming a top end arm IMO.

Travis Wood:
BB/9 Fip
2010: 2.28 3.42
2011: 3.40 4.06
2012: 3.12 4.84
2013: 2.97 3.89
2014: 3.94 4.38

If you not every year his BB/9 got over 3 his Fip went over 4. To say the least every one of those years his ERA went north of 4.00 to boot.

So if I am looking at a f/a I'm looking at his BB/9 first which puts Liriano out of my box....

Another point is Theo went and said he was looking to add 1 F/A this year and 1 next year in SP.

Mat Latos (28)
Mike Leake (28)
David Price (30)
Jeff Samardzija (31)
Jordan Zimmermann (30)
Kris Medlen (30) (may not get arb due to 2nd t/j this year and I wouldn't be surprised if Theo pays for him to rehab to gain future control)
Doug Fister (32)

Now next year most look like they will have Q-offers tied to them.

I would target Lester this year with Maeda as option 2. Then sign Hammel to a 1 year deal to fill in as a stop gap for next years sign.
Now next year it is Price and Latos as the top 2 pitchers.

IMO the Cubs have to spend this year and put up a strong season to even have a chance at luring Price or Latos.

 

[SilenceS]

The Red Sox traded ace left-hander Jon Lester to the Athletics at the trade deadline, mostly because they were unable to sign the impending free agent to a contract extension. The team continues to insist they will pursue him over the winter.

Of course, they are hardly the only team that will look to sign Lester. Ace lefties who have proven they can handle big markets and dominate in the postseason are rare, especially when all they cost is money. It's easy to envision clubs like the Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Angels, Tigers, Nationals, Rangers and Cubs getting involved.

Lester, however, insists he will not make his free agent decision based on money. Here's what he told John Tomase of the Boston Herald:

“(The Red Sox) told me, ‘We're going to be aggressive. You're going to get blown out of the water by some of these (other) offers,' ” Lester recalled. “I'm like, ‘I don't need to be blown out of the water.' Why would I need to be blown out of the water? That doesn't make or break your decision, at least for me. I'm not going to the highest bidder. I'm going to the place that makes me and my family happy. If that's Boston, it's Boston.”

....

“In the greater scheme of things, we're talking about just a stupid amount of money,” he said. “For me, I want to be comfortable. The way I look at it is, if someone gives you $170 million and someone gives you $150 million, is that $20 million really going to change your lifestyle? Same thing if the highest bidder is $100 million and the team you're going to feel most comfortable with offers $80 million. Is that $20 million really going to make the difference in your lifestyle?”

Boston reportedly offered Lester a four-year contract worth $70 million earlier this year, though that isn't close to a fair offer. It's probably half what he could get on the open market. Lester is in line for something like to the six-year, $144 million deal Cole Hamels signed with the Phillies. He could even push for the seven years and $161 million the Yankees gave CC Sabathia back during the 2008-09 offseason.

Lester, 30, is 13-7 with a 2.51 ERA in 24 starts and 164 2/3 innings for the Red Sox and Athletics this year. He is on pace to throw 190+ innings for the seventh straight year and 200+ innings for the sixth time in the last seven years. Lester is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA in 76 2/3 career postseason innings.

Tigers ace Max Scherzer will also be a free agent this coming winter, though, unlike Lester, he will be attached to draft pick compensation. Giving up a first round pick for an elite pitcher isn't a big deal, but, all things being equal, teams will gravitate towards the guy who doesn't cost a draft pick.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...ree-agency-im-not-going-to-the-highest-bidder

 

[JZsportsfan]

Yeah the Cubs definitely have to take another couple steps forward next season to really become an attractive FA option. If the Cubs sign Lester, they should certainly finish outside the top 10, and will likely have to give up a 1st round pick next year to get any of these guys with a qualifying offer

 

[CSF77]

Yeah the Cubs definitely have to take another couple steps forward next season to really become an attractive FA option. If the Cubs sign Lester, they should certainly finish outside the top 10, and will likely have to give up a 1st round pick next year to get any of these guys with a qualifying offer

They have to prove they are willing to spend on big contracts first. Right now they are known for trading out $$$. Garza and Shark.

Even if Lester goes back to Boston I would give Maeda a 100 mil offer. Wich is more than most teams would go for a mid tier arm. But my opinion is he is better than he is viewed right now. By retaining Wada in the rotation it gives Madea a comfort zone like Kuroda gave Tanaka year 1.

So the rotation would look like Arrieta, Maeda, Hendricks, Wada The last arm I would sign Hammels for a 1 year deal. Even is he hovered around a 4.00 ERA it is better than what the rest of the options gave.

Now next year Edwards should be in AAA and Price would be on the market and that is someone who I could see them spend big on. Add to it the O should be more defined at that point where adding a legit ace makes sense.

 

[brett05]

The Red Sox traded ace left-hander Jon Lester to the Athletics at the trade deadline, mostly because they were unable to sign the impending free agent to a contract extension. The team continues to insist they will pursue him over the winter.

Of course, they are hardly the only team that will look to sign Lester. Ace lefties who have proven they can handle big markets and dominate in the postseason are rare, especially when all they cost is money. It's easy to envision clubs like the Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Angels, Tigers, Nationals, Rangers and Cubs getting involved.

Lester, however, insists he will not make his free agent decision based on money. Here's what he told John Tomase of the Boston Herald:

“(The Red Sox) told me, ‘We're going to be aggressive. You're going to get blown out of the water by some of these (other) offers,' ” Lester recalled. “I'm like, ‘I don't need to be blown out of the water.' Why would I need to be blown out of the water? That doesn't make or break your decision, at least for me. I'm not going to the highest bidder. I'm going to the place that makes me and my family happy. If that's Boston, it's Boston.”

....

“In the greater scheme of things, we're talking about just a stupid amount of money,” he said. “For me, I want to be comfortable. The way I look at it is, if someone gives you $170 million and someone gives you $150 million, is that $20 million really going to change your lifestyle? Same thing if the highest bidder is $100 million and the team you're going to feel most comfortable with offers $80 million. Is that $20 million really going to make the difference in your lifestyle?”

Boston reportedly offered Lester a four-year contract worth $70 million earlier this year, though that isn't close to a fair offer. It's probably half what he could get on the open market. Lester is in line for something like to the six-year, $144 million deal Cole Hamels signed with the Phillies. He could even push for the seven years and $161 million the Yankees gave CC Sabathia back during the 2008-09 offseason.

Lester, 30, is 13-7 with a 2.51 ERA in 24 starts and 164 2/3 innings for the Red Sox and Athletics this year. He is on pace to throw 190+ innings for the seventh straight year and 200+ innings for the sixth time in the last seven years. Lester is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA in 76 2/3 career postseason innings.

Tigers ace Max Scherzer will also be a free agent this coming winter, though, unlike Lester, he will be attached to draft pick compensation. Giving up a first round pick for an elite pitcher isn't a big deal, but, all things being equal, teams will gravitate towards the guy who doesn't cost a draft pick.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...ree-agency-im-not-going-to-the-highest-bidder

Unless Lester has some tremendous family attachment in Chicago, The Cubs and The White Sox are out of the process for Lester.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'm sure some people here will be shocked by this, but the place that makes most players and their families happy is usually the highest bidder.

 

[SilenceS]

I think trying to decipher who is in and out by a man's words that arent yours is utterly useless.

 

[brett05]

I think trying to decipher who is in and out by a man's words that arent yours is utterly useless.

I know something more useless than utterly...

 

[JP Hochbaum]

People do pay attention to what is happening here and there is a lure to play here:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/3069...eye-on-cubs-as-package-deal.html#.VE-SQPnF97t

 

[brett05]

People do pay attention to what is happening here and there is a lure to play here:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/3069...eye-on-cubs-as-package-deal.html#.VE-SQPnF97t

“You never know what free agency brings. I’ve certainly talked to Jon Lester because we’re buddies. So I have a feel for what he does. And I certainly know that Chicago would interest him and interest me.”

There's interest!

“Me and Jon are obviously very close,” he said. “If there was ever a fit with both of us on the team, certainly that would interest me. I know what he brings to the table. We have a crazy good friendship, and I know how bad he wants to win, and I know he’s not going to go to a situation for however many years he signs [for] to lose.

But with that it's not with the Cubs. I'd be happy to land both on the Southside. Sale, Lester, Q, Peavy, Rodon

 

[CSF77]

I was not expecting Jake Peavy wanting to be a Cub that bad. Still it is strange that Jake went and had that convo right in the middle of the WS with his team. That should have been left for after the series.

Still, it makes for a interesting rotation if both would come over.

SP FIP:

Jake Arrieta 2.26 (He looks pretty legit and he is is perfecting his change this off season. Good thing they have control over him)
Jon Lester: 2.80
Kyle Hendricks: 3.32 (expect a regression)
Tsuyoshi Wada: 3.75 (ditto)
Jake Peavy: 4.11 (should improve in the NL)
Jacob Turner: 4.16 (I expect him st stay here)
Travis Wood: 4.38 (Hard to say with him)
Edwin Jackson: 4.45 (4.25 is what I expect from him)
Felix Doubront: 5.13 (His SO/9 sucks)

Also:
Jason Hammel: 4.00

 

[SilenceS]

There's interest!



But with that it's not with the Cubs. I'd be happy to land both on the Southside. Sale, Lester, Q, Peavy, Rodon

The Sox arent winning anything.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I was not expecting Jake Peavy wanting to be a Cub that bad. Still it is strange that Jake went and had that convo right in the middle of the WS with his team. That should have been left for after the series.

Still, it makes for a interesting rotation if both would come over.

SP FIP:

Jake Arrieta 2.26 (He looks pretty legit and he is is perfecting his change this off season. Good thing they have control over him)
Jon Lester: 2.80
Kyle Hendricks: 3.32 (expect a regression)
Tsuyoshi Wada: 3.75 (ditto)
Jake Peavy: 4.11 (should improve in the NL)
Jacob Turner: 4.16 (I expect him st stay here)
Travis Wood: 4.38 (Hard to say with him)
Edwin Jackson: 4.45 (4.25 is what I expect from him)
Felix Doubront: 5.13 (His SO/9 sucks)

Also:
Jason Hammel: 4.00

Turner looks better than his numbers and his peripherals are always better than his traditional stats. I think there's a real chance that Bosio can help this kid find his way to becoming what everyone always thought he was in Detroit and Miami and that's a legit #2 or #3 in a good rotation. Some people say the same about Doubront but I'm not one of them. As for Peavy I think I'd jump off a bridge if he was signed. His numbers are good since joining the Giants but if you watch him he has no stuff whatsoever. He was a great pitcher once, then he was a scrappy pitcher who could get hot now I think he's bad and hitters will figure it out eventually.

 

[brett05]

The Sox arent winning anything.

With those five and a healthy lineup, they'd be right there in the discussion for playoffs. For now, they are closer to winning than the other Chicago team.

 

[CSF77]

Turner looks better than his numbers and his peripherals are always better than his traditional stats. I think there's a real chance that Bosio can help this kid find his way to becoming what everyone always thought he was in Detroit and Miami and that's a legit #2 or #3 in a good rotation. Some people say the same about Doubront but I'm not one of them. As for Peavy I think I'd jump off a bridge if he was signed. His numbers are good since joining the Giants but if you watch him he has no stuff whatsoever. He was a great pitcher once, then he was a scrappy pitcher who could get hot now I think he's bad and hitters will figure it out eventually.

League avg is a 4.00 FIP.

His FB hovers around 92 which is league avg. He has a cutter, curve and a slider to go with a 2 seamer. I see him as potentially being a lesser Arrieta. Lacking a 96 MPH fastball. If he can master locating his pitches he should be a #3 top end.

 

[CSF77]

With those five and a healthy lineup, they'd be right there in the discussion for playoffs. For now, they are closer to winning than the other Chicago team.

With Jake I would say been there done that.

 

[DewsSox79]

The Sox arent winning anything.

neither are the cubs but hey you can always dream.


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

 

[DewsSox79]

With those five and a healthy lineup, they'd be right there in the discussion for playoffs. For now, they are closer to winning than the other Chicago team.

relax. their prospects are all going to pan out and arrieta is like maddux and stuff. i love the cubs forum!


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

 

[SilenceS]

neither are the cubs but hey you can always dream.


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

The Cubs have a brighter future then the Sox, but hey, jealousy is cute.