One Cub on BA Mid-season Top 50 Prospects

[2SeamHeat]

The strikeout thing is going to be magnified in the majors but the fact that he's still OPSing over .800 (albeit in a league that's a hitter's paradise) should mitigate some of those concerns. Wish he'd get the strikeout rate at least under 25% but whatcha gonna do...

I do have faith that Jackson will get it together at some point. However, if he does not, he's going to end up striking out over 200 times at the MLB level. His OPS right now is .833. This is due to a near .500 Slug based on 12 HR (a pace of around 22 HR for a season... kind of where people expect him to be) and 10 3B (an incredible pace of 20... which no one expects him to put forth -it's 10 of his career 32-). Bring those triples down to a more reasonable level, and you see Jackson's OPS fall dramatically.

This in mind, if Jackson's Ks remain this ungodly high, he will walk much less in the majors. Right now, he's getting the benefit of lesser umpiring skills. A lot of his BBs this year, would be called Ks in the majors. On top of this, if the MLB scouts continue to see him struggling... the much greater MLB pitching talent will work to make him the easy out he's appearing to be now. He'll see nothing but those pitches he can't hit. You're talking Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard. None of those guys are known for particularly high BAs. With the exception of Dunn, they also don't carry very good OBPs. The big difference here, though, all of those guys have/had better power and run-production potential/capability than Jackson ever will. Thus, they could get away with high Ks and low BAs... as long as they continue to drive the ball to or over the wall and push runners across the plate. Unless Jackson is suddenly going to be a 35+ HR 110+ RBI cleanup hitter... he'll be nothing more than a 4th OF if he doesn't cut the Ks down... even from his standard rate prior to this season.

 

[dabynsky]

Being a good defensive centerfield will allow him to perhaps be an average starter, but he is starting to look more in the mold of Darwin Barney than a difference maker.

 

[Rice Cube]

I think a guy who (at least used to) has good plate discipline, power, defense and speed can be a MLB regular. He's probably not going to be a superstar (few prospects ever turn out that way) but he won't be useless. I'm hoping that his issues are more mental than anything. Probably just needs to stop thinking so much and just hit. Or walk if the pitches aren't the right stuff

 

[Captain Obvious]

I do have faith that Jackson will get it together at some point. However, if he does not, he's going to end up striking out over 200 times at the MLB level. His OPS right now is .833. This is due to a near .500 Slug based on 12 HR (a pace of around 22 HR for a season... kind of where people expect him to be) and 10 3B (an incredible pace of 20... which no one expects him to put forth -it's 10 of his career 32-). Bring those triples down to a more reasonable level, and you see Jackson's OPS fall dramatically.

This in mind, if Jackson's Ks remain this ungodly high, he will walk much less in the majors. Right now, he's getting the benefit of lesser umpiring skills. A lot of his BBs this year, would be called Ks in the majors. On top of this, if the MLB scouts continue to see him struggling... the much greater MLB pitching talent will work to make him the easy out he's appearing to be now. He'll see nothing but those pitches he can't hit. You're talking Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard. None of those guys are known for particularly high BAs. With the exception of Dunn, they also don't carry very good OBPs. The big difference here, though, all of those guys have/had better power and run-production potential/capability than Jackson ever will. Thus, they could get away with high Ks and low BAs... as long as they continue to drive the ball to or over the wall and push runners across the plate. Unless Jackson is suddenly going to be a 35+ HR 110+ RBI cleanup hitter... he'll be nothing more than a 4th OF if he doesn't cut the Ks down... even from his standard rate prior to this season.

You really couldn't be more wrong. His BB's, if anything, will stay walks. There is no way that you can back up that umpires in AAA have smaller zones than the ones in the MLB. They have very comparable zones, perhaps a little bigger. The umpires have nothing to do with how he will play. AAA umpires are fantastic, they are on the cusp of the MLB, it's not comparing a LL umpire to a MLB umpire.

Yeah, Howard and Cust have terrible OBPs....

Cust .374
Howard .368
Dunn .373

 

[dabynsky]

You really couldn't be more wrong. His BB's, if anything, will stay walks. There is no way that you can back up that umpires in AAA have smaller zones than the ones in the MLB. They have very comparable zones, perhaps a little bigger. The umpires have nothing to do with how he will play. AAA umpires are fantastic, they are on the cusp of the MLB, it's not comparing a LL umpire to a MLB umpire.

Yeah, Howard and Cust have terrible OBPs....

Cust .374
Howard .368
Dunn .373

The probelm is that Jackson will never hit for the same power as those players. So the extreme amount of strikeouts is concerning because he is only able to do one of the two things hitters can counteract that with (walking).

 

[2SeamHeat]

You really couldn't be more wrong. His BB's, if anything, will stay walks. There is no way that you can back up that umpires in AAA have smaller zones than the ones in the MLB. They have very comparable zones, perhaps a little bigger. The umpires have nothing to do with how he will play. AAA umpires are fantastic, they are on the cusp of the MLB, it's not comparing a LL umpire to a MLB umpire.

Yeah, Howard and Cust have terrible OBPs....

Cust .374
Howard .368
Dunn .373

Let's see... I watch Jackson play on a near daily basis. Do you? I watch the balls he takes, do you? I also see where many of those balls are borderline at best, and against most MLB pitchers... the pitchers would usually get the benefit there. Oh, and scouting reports posted around the web kinda back this up. But I also suppose you've never wondered why so many players don't walk quite at the same rate as they do in the minors... when they take the same kind of pitches in the MLB as they did in the minors. I'm not knocking AAA umpires by no means... they aren't quite as skilled as MLB umps... but they also do not end up influenced by the "reputation" of a renowned MLB pitcher. You can't tell me that most above-average pitchers in the MLB don't have more favorable strike zones than others. Some have extremely favorable strike zones. Look at the game Friday where Wood was squeezed a bit in comparison to Santana. So, maybe the term "lesser umpiring" was misused... perhaps I should have used the term "more consistent" in regards to their strike zones.

So, I'm supposed to be impressed with Cust's 2 seasons with an OBP above .350 in over 450 AB.. and call him good? I'm supposed to be impressed with Howard's usual .353 or so OBP hasn't been skewed by 2 seasons where he was amongst the MLB league leaders in IBB? Dunn has been a routine high OBP guy. Last season was the only of his career where he carried anything less than .350... and most of his career he's carried a .380 or higher OBP. But hey, let's skew things here, since you have no real argument. Oh, and Dunn has never been even close to the leaders in terms of IBB.... unlike Howard. Nor will Jackson ever be.

 

[nwfisch]

Let's see... I watch Jackson play on a near daily basis. Do you? I watch the balls he takes, do you? I also see where many of those balls are borderline at best, and against most MLB pitchers... the pitchers would usually get the benefit there. Oh, and scouting reports posted around the web kinda back this up. But I also suppose you've never wondered why so many players don't walk quite at the same rate as they do in the minors... when they take the same kind of pitches in the MLB as they did in the minors. I'm not knocking AAA umpires by no means... they aren't quite as skilled as MLB umps... but they also do not end up influenced by the "reputation" of a renowned MLB pitcher. You can't tell me that most above-average pitchers in the MLB don't have more favorable strike zones than others. Some have extremely favorable strike zones. Look at the game Friday where Wood was squeezed a bit in comparison to Santana. So, maybe the term "lesser umpiring" was misused... perhaps I should have used the term "more consistent" in regards to their strike zones.

So, I'm supposed to be impressed with Cust's 2 seasons with an OBP above .350 in over 450 AB.. and call him good? I'm supposed to be impressed with Howard's usual .353 or so OBP hasn't been skewed by 2 seasons where he was amongst the MLB league leaders in IBB? Dunn has been a routine high OBP guy. Last season was the only of his career where he carried anything less than .350... and most of his career he's carried a .380 or higher OBP. But hey, let's skew things here, since you have no real argument. Oh, and Dunn has never been even close to the leaders in terms of IBB.... unlike Howard. Nor will Jackson ever be.

Anything to stand up for a Cub is par for the course with CO.

I think you may be overstating the impact of AAA umpires, but your point still stands that he'll be more likely to strike out than walk at the MLB level, and I believe the cause of that to be from better pitching, moreso than umpiring.

 

[dabynsky]

The thing that bothers me the most with Jackson isn't so much the pitches he is taking but the pitches that he is swinging and missing at. I haven't looked up the numbers but when I've watched BJax there are a lot of pitches that look like strikes that he can't put the bat on the ball. Jackson can still be a useful player, but the luster of him being an above average offensive player is fading pretty fast.

 

[FirstTimer]

Let's see... I watch Jackson play on a near daily basis. Do you? I watch the balls he takes, do you? I also see where many of those balls are borderline at best, and against most MLB pitchers... the pitchers would usually get the benefit there. Oh, and scouting reports posted around the web kinda back this up. But I also suppose you've never wondered why so many players don't walk quite at the same rate as they do in the minors... when they take the same kind of pitches in the MLB as they did in the minors. I'm not knocking AAA umpires by no means... they aren't quite as skilled as MLB umps... but they also do not end up influenced by the "reputation" of a renowned MLB pitcher. You can't tell me that most above-average pitchers in the MLB don't have more favorable strike zones than others. Some have extremely favorable strike zones. Look at the game Friday where Wood was squeezed a bit in comparison to Santana. So, maybe the term "lesser umpiring" was misused... perhaps I should have used the term "more consistent" in regards to their strike zones.

So, I'm supposed to be impressed with Cust's 2 seasons with an OBP above .350 in over 450 AB.. and call him good? I'm supposed to be impressed with Howard's usual .353 or so OBP hasn't been skewed by 2 seasons where he was amongst the MLB league leaders in IBB? Dunn has been a routine high OBP guy. Last season was the only of his career where he carried anything less than .350... and most of his career he's carried a .380 or higher OBP. But hey, let's skew things here, since you have no real argument. Oh, and Dunn has never been even close to the leaders in terms of IBB.... unlike Howard. Nor will Jackson ever be.

LOL. CO just got shit all over.

 

[Rice Cube]

The thing that bothers me the most with Jackson isn't so much the pitches he is taking but the pitches that he is swinging and missing at. I haven't looked up the numbers but when I've watched BJax there are a lot of pitches that look like strikes that he can't put the bat on the ball. Jackson can still be a useful player, but the luster of him being an above average offensive player is fading pretty fast.

Not to mention that if he can't get consistent contact on those down-the-middle pitches, and doesn't flash enough power, he's never going to walk because they'll just keep peppering the strike zone with pitches that he can't handle and that he can't knock out of the park. Definitely something that needs fixed.

 

[Jntg4]

If AAA umpires are worse, they'd also be calling balls strikes, so wouldn't it balance out?