To me, the loss of draft picks is not an immediately impactful enough punishment. That punishes the organization 3-5 years from now, when it *might* actually feel the effects of not having those prospects. And a fine of 5mil is, frankly, nothing for an organization worth literally billions of dollars. That's like two games' worth of gate revenue.
Whatever Manfred decides, it has to be something that significantly affects the Astros' ability to compete in at least 2020. In college football, the "death penalty" typically includes the loss of participation in bowl games for a period of years. Since the Astros' cheating appears to have been "institutional", in that the players, coaches, and the FO were all aware of it, and it occurred during the MLB playoffs, what if the Astros were banned from postseason competition for a period of three years? That would be a real body blow to being able to retain their own players and attract free agents. It would affect the entire organization, which is appropriate in this case: Player cheats? Punish the player. Team cheats? Punish the team. Organization cheats? Punish the entire organization.