OT: The Importance Of Wins

[beckdawg]

It's not semantics in the least. You tell me two pitchers have 12 wins. I say both pitchers are not good. You say Feldman and Fernandez. I say two pitchers that aren't in the top 500 at this time. I'd be right and all from just wins.

Top 500 what? All time best pitchers? If so, I'm done debating with you because that's just stupid. Fernandez is a 20 year old rookie and you're comparing him to players with 10+ years? Seriously?

 

[chibears55]

I don't agree really. I gave a great example of why in the Hernandez example. A 12-10 record would be an "average" pitcher and he's clearly better than that

that when you have to also factor in the team for that year, especially if the pitcher has a decent ERA which he has at 3.04.


I tend to look at wins, IP, ERA, and WHIP when i look at starters..
So no wins alone dont always tell a full story of a starter..

some of you consider matt garza a top of rotation type starter, garza pitched on playoff teams and the cubs..
he 46-49 4.01 ERA on the 3 good/playoff teams and was 21-18 3.45 ERA with the cubs..

what does that tell you about Matt Garza ?

tells me that even on a good team, he cant win consistently and seeing the difference in ERAs tells me he struggles against better teams in which a true top end starter doesnt do that often.

thats why i always felt garza was no better then a NO. 3 type starter...

 

[beckdawg]

that when you have to also factor in the team for that year, especially if the pitcher has a decent ERA which he has at 3.04.


I tend to look at wins, IP, ERA, and WHIP when i look at starters..
So no wins alone dont always tell a full story of a starter..

some of you consider matt garza a top of rotation type starter, garza pitched on playoff teams and the cubs..
he 46-49 4.01 ERA on the 3 good/playoff teams and was 21-18 3.45 ERA with the cubs..

what does that tell you about Matt Garza ?

tells me that even on a good team, he cant win consistently and seeing the difference in ERAs tells me he struggles against better teams in which a true top end starter doesnt do that often.

thats why i always felt garza was no better then a NO. 3 type starter...

I agree it's sort of ignorant to look at one stat but that was the argument being made for W/L. Honestly, I don't care at all about wins in the context of pitching. If you really want to cling to something in that nature quality starts is better but as someone mentioned(think SilenceS) even the qualifications for QS's isn't all that difficult.

Simply put though, you win games by out scoring your opponent. So, the fewer runs you allow as the pitcher the more likely your team is to win. If people want to use a commonly used statistic, ERA is probably the easiest and best correlation to team wins.

 

[Flacco4Prez]

So overrated. I mean look at the Tigers aces the past two games. 14 IP, 2 ER, 0 wins. Can't ask for any better performances

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/players-view-the-best-stat-to-evaluate-pitchers-part-2/

I think is fairly relevant. Top three answers being IP, ERA and WHIP

 

[CSF77]

I would go with WHIP leads to ERA. They do have a direct correlation. IP would be a lesser consideration. Yes they factor but is 180 IP at 5.00 ERA doing your club any good?

 

[TL1961]

The rules for a win are too arbitrary in my opinion. A guy can pitch 6 innings give up 5 runs and as long as he has the lead he has a shot at getting the win. On the contrary, a guy could pitch 9 shutout innings then give up a run in the 10th an get a loss. Additionally, you can pitch 7 strong innings and get a ND because a reliever gives up your win. Take a pitcher like Felix Hernanedz. He's arguably the best pitcher of the last decade and his record is 110-86 which puts him on average of 12-10 each year. Win loss record is just a terrible indicator of how good a pitcher is.

Best of the last decade??

Clayton Kershaw might argue that.

 

[beckdawg]

I would go with WHIP leads to ERA. They do have a direct correlation. IP would be a lesser consideration. Yes they factor but is 180 IP at 5.00 ERA doing your club any good?

I'm slightly torn on WHIP. It's not a bad indicator but you can often have guys who strike out a lot of guys but may not have the best command still be good pitchers with a 1.2-1.3 whip. These players will strand a lot more runners than typical which off sets the players on base. I will say though that if you have a player like that they might not age well as their stuff declines.

As for IP, I don't particularly think it's a strong indicator but I think the logic behind them suggesting it is if you're good enough to pitch 200 IP then you probably aren't someone with a 5 ERA over multiple years. I'm not going to get into it again, but we sorta discussed this a bit with regard to Jackson how high IP totals do have a value. That being said, I'd take ERA over IP any day of the week.

 

[beckdawg]

Best of the last decade??

Clayton Kershaw might argue that.

I did say arguably. Also, Kershaw has 6 seasons and 1180.0 IP to Hernandez's 9 seasons and 1824.2 IP. So, I think it's a bit difficult say Kershaw is the best pitcher of the past decade. Past 5 years? Sure there's a good argument there. But either way, we're really splitting hairs. Both are amazing pitchers.

 

[brett05]

Top 500 what? All time best pitchers? If so, I'm done debating with you because that's just stupid. Fernandez is a 20 year old rookie and you're comparing him to players with 10+ years? Seriously?

Please take a moment and re-read the OP.

 

[brett05]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/players-view-the-best-stat-to-evaluate-pitchers-part-2/

I think is fairly relevant. Top three answers being IP, ERA and WHIP

Good article. I wonder what their answer would be on long term evaluation on pitchers.

 

[CSF77]

I'm slightly torn on WHIP. It's not a bad indicator but you can often have guys who strike out a lot of guys but may not have the best command still be good pitchers with a 1.2-1.3 whip. These players will strand a lot more runners than typical which off sets the players on base. I will say though that if you have a player like that they might not age well as their stuff declines.

As for IP, I don't particularly think it's a strong indicator but I think the logic behind them suggesting it is if you're good enough to pitch 200 IP then you probably aren't someone with a 5 ERA over multiple years. I'm not going to get into it again, but we sorta discussed this a bit with regard to Jackson how high IP totals do have a value. That being said, I'd take ERA over IP any day of the week.

There is the old x play and strike out but in the law of avg if you let more than 1 guy on base per inning the chances are your are giving up more runs.

WHIP is a good indication of a pitchers command.

 

[patg006]

It's not a useless stat.

Good pitchers don't generally lose, and bad pitchers don't generally win. You have Rick Hellings and Ben Sheets that stray from that, but for the most part a 500 pitcher like Shark is a 500 pitcher.

You forgot King Felix during his Cy Young year back in 2010 where he went 13-12 and beat out David Price who went 19-6.

But to your point, Roy Halladay in Toronto. Average team that won 67-87 games while he was with them and he won 20+ games a year 3 times and 16-19 another 4 times. Take him away from Toronto all of those years and they're the cubs of the last 2 years.

Good pitchers get W's regardless, very rarely will a pitcher pitch 8 shut out innings then lose 1-0 in the 9th--so King Felix.

Shark is an average to above average pitcher on an offensively disastrous team. So on good days he loses 3-0, on bad days he gets chased on the 2nd inning. Halladay in his prime didn't get chased like that.....

 

[daddies3angels]

I have changed my stance on W big time for SP. Reason is that today game is alot different from when W used to matter in Baseball. In the past SP used to go 8+ every game no matter what. So yes the W-L matter. Now in today games pitchers go 6-7 and to much can happen in those last 2-3 innings to make W-L mean anything. All SP can do is pitch is best to help the TEAM W. Thats the stat that should matter at end of day. What Team Record is when that SP pitches