Otani posted, will be in MLB in 2018

[beckdawg]

I wasn't being playful, just pointing things out when folks might be missing the trees thru the forest.

What is he really interested in? Guesses is all that can be made. Texas could be strong thanks to Darvish. Weak as you say as their quality of a core is sub par.
The Cubs are obviously still a power player but he could also see a the lack of pitching as well as the future high salaries there.

I think it's a West Coast team. I think he wants the home town folks a chance to watch him play on the biggest stages. None bigger than the LA market if location was a choice which it certainly looks like it will be.

I don't think money plays a single dollar into it. His money is going to be so huge off the field and back home especially that the difference between 300K and 3.3 million will be laughable.

My point is that folks reading into the perceived finalists are just that, perception. Unless his agent comes out and identifies finalists, no one can say otherwise.

In reality I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's angling for some sort of package deal with Yu. Two for one so to speak. I think any team that would offer that could land him just like that.

Thing is if he is angling to get Darish with him that plays even more into the cubs hands. If we look at opening day payroll for 2018 right now of the remaining teams it's as follows
SD - $49,725,000
TEX - $114,808,333
Cubs - $132,077,381
LAA - $137,383,333
SEA - $143,557,143
SF - $187,497,778
LAD - $211,334,522

If we're assuming teams want to stay under the luxury tax of ~$190 mil that basically means SF and the Dodgers are out on Darvish. TEX/SEA/LAA could theoretically make that sort of offer but again it's a case of even with both Ohtani and Darvish does that really make them a WS team? At 92 wins the cubs probably underperformed their talent and yet they were still +12 on the Angels, and +14 on SEA/TEX. Realistically think you could suggest those two add 4 wins for Darvish and best case like 5 for Ohtani. Only 7 pitchers last year were worth 5 wins and only 13 were worth 4 so that's a very optimistic outlook. So you'd still need to add 3 wins if you're the angels just to match the cubs(going rate is about $24 mil for 3 wins) and 5 wins if you're the other two($40 mil). So, you're likely talking about +$50 mil in salary for LAA to get to where a underperforming cubs team was last year which is basically the luxury tax cap and +$65 mil for the other two which puts Texas about $10 mil under and Seattle well over. Obviously you can make the case that smart teams are able to find players at cheaper values than $8 mil per win but that was just a simplistic look at how prices tend to go with FA's. In terms of the cubs, if they give Darvish $26 mil/year they'd still be like $32 mil under the luxury tax cap. SD is clearly an oddball in that regard. Frankly I'm not sure Darvish would even consider them. On Ohtani's timeline they are likely to be good. But Darvish is 31. You wait 2-3 years for the young guys they have to get good and he's in his decline phase.

And just to humor the idea of what if LA or SF says **** the luxury tax, LA has this as their choice of pitchers on the roster right now. Kershaw(3 years $35.6M/$34.6M/$35.6M though believe he can opt out after 2018), Brandon McCarthy(1 year $11.5M), Scott Kazmir(1 year $17.67M), Rich Hill(2 years $16.67M/$18.67M), Hyun-jin Ryu(1 year $7.83M), Kenta Maeda(6 x $3.12M), Ross Stripling(pre-arb 2), Julio Urias(pre-arb 1), Walker Buehler(pre arb 1), Alex Wood(arb 2) and a number of other guys near the majors plus while Stripling isn't a big name I've read their FO likes him a lot. Just adding Ohtani to that mix would be nuts. You'd almost certainly have to deal 2-3 pitchers. But to also add Darvish? I can't even begin to imagine what they'd have to do.

As for SF, you're looking at Cueto(4 year/5th option 4x $21.83M/$22M or $5M), Samardzija(3x $19.8M), Bumgarner($12M with a $12M team option for 2019), Matt Moore($9M and a $10M team option in 2019), Ty Blach(pre Arb 2) and Chris Stratton(pre-arb). Theoretically they also have Tyler Beede though it sounds like he's gonna be part of their offer for Stanton. So, while they could do it in theory, they'd be going massively over the luxury tax for basically the next 4-5 years. You have to figure Darvish gets roughly $20-26 mil/year and then in 2 years time Bumgarner probably gets even more than Darvish and of course they want him back. And if you're also adding in stanton that's a MASSIVE amount of money for the next 10 years.

 

[TL1961]

He wants both West Coast and "small" market.

Excluding Texas, of all remaining teams, Cubs have fewer residents living on the West Coast than any other contender, thus satisfying the small market provision.

Nailed it!

 

[CSF77]

Seems Ohtani spoke to SFG first. They are offering corner OF AB’s.

 

[CSF77]

Thing is if he is angling to get Darish with him that plays even more into the cubs hands. If we look at opening day payroll for 2018 right now of the remaining teams it's as follows
SD - $49,725,000
TEX - $114,808,333
Cubs - $132,077,381
LAA - $137,383,333
SEA - $143,557,143
SF - $187,497,778
LAD - $211,334,522

If we're assuming teams want to stay under the luxury tax of ~$190 mil that basically means SF and the Dodgers are out on Darvish. TEX/SEA/LAA could theoretically make that sort of offer but again it's a case of even with both Ohtani and Darvish does that really make them a WS team? At 92 wins the cubs probably underperformed their talent and yet they were still +12 on the Angels, and +14 on SEA/TEX. Realistically think you could suggest those two add 4 wins for Darvish and best case like 5 for Ohtani. Only 7 pitchers last year were worth 5 wins and only 13 were worth 4 so that's a very optimistic outlook. So you'd still need to add 3 wins if you're the angels just to match the cubs(going rate is about $24 mil for 3 wins) and 5 wins if you're the other two($40 mil). So, you're likely talking about +$50 mil in salary for LAA to get to where a underperforming cubs team was last year which is basically the luxury tax cap and +$65 mil for the other two which puts Texas about $10 mil under and Seattle well over. Obviously you can make the case that smart teams are able to find players at cheaper values than $8 mil per win but that was just a simplistic look at how prices tend to go with FA's. In terms of the cubs, if they give Darvish $26 mil/year they'd still be like $32 mil under the luxury tax cap. SD is clearly an oddball in that regard. Frankly I'm not sure Darvish would even consider them. On Ohtani's timeline they are likely to be good. But Darvish is 31. You wait 2-3 years for the young guys they have to get good and he's in his decline phase.

And just to humor the idea of what if LA or SF says **** the luxury tax, LA has this as their choice of pitchers on the roster right now. Kershaw(3 years $35.6M/$34.6M/$35.6M though believe he can opt out after 2018), Brandon McCarthy(1 year $11.5M), Scott Kazmir(1 year $17.67M), Rich Hill(2 years $16.67M/$18.67M), Hyun-jin Ryu(1 year $7.83M), Kenta Maeda(6 x $3.12M), Ross Stripling(pre-arb 2), Julio Urias(pre-arb 1), Walker Buehler(pre arb 1), Alex Wood(arb 2) and a number of other guys near the majors plus while Stripling isn't a big name I've read their FO likes him a lot. Just adding Ohtani to that mix would be nuts. You'd almost certainly have to deal 2-3 pitchers. But to also add Darvish? I can't even begin to imagine what they'd have to do.

As for SF, you're looking at Cueto(4 year/5th option 4x $21.83M/$22M or $5M), Samardzija(3x $19.8M), Bumgarner($12M with a $12M team option for 2019), Matt Moore($9M and a $10M team option in 2019), Ty Blach(pre Arb 2) and Chris Stratton(pre-arb). Theoretically they also have Tyler Beede though it sounds like he's gonna be part of their offer for Stanton. So, while they could do it in theory, they'd be going massively over the luxury tax for basically the next 4-5 years. You have to figure Darvish gets roughly $20-26 mil/year and then in 2 years time Bumgarner probably gets even more than Darvish and of course they want him back. And if you're also adding in stanton that's a MASSIVE amount of money for the next 10 years.

I feel it is SEA and LAA that make the most sense for him if they try to do a combo pack with Darvish. Mostly due to team needs and payroll. The main issue is the Astros in that Div. they are not going to lie down and let anyone take their top seed. But that could present a desired challenge.

Cubs would own the div with both. If they are just looking at rings then that situation is the best. If they want a tough division to battle in the AL West is a hot spot. With LAA or SEA would be a threat to the Stroes if they land them

So it is had to predict honestly. It really comes down to motivation honestly.

 

[CSF77]

And if you look at it:

Cubs NL C.

SFG/SDP/LAD. NL W

TEX/LAA/SEA. NL W.

Cubs are the odd ball but it seems he is gunning for the Stroes next year and has gauged his picks that way.

3 are in div with the Stroes. You would have to look at their current talent and determine if Yu/Ohtani put them at Hou’s level.

Then you look at the NL. SD has no business outside of logistics. Cubs are the 2nd best and LAD are the best team. SFG are always a threat every year.

So looking at NL teams it has more to do with getting to the WS.

I believe the edge lies in the AL W due to being able to battle it the defending champs honestly

Cubs would have to plain outsell every one else and have Yu in tow IMO

 

[TL1961]

Well, he has already stated he does not want to go where there is another Japanese star, so I think Darvish is not necessary.

 

[Bigfoot]

I think SD is the darkhorse. Watching MLBN earlier today, and they were naming a few people in SD orginization that have ties to Japan baseball, and Otani.

 

[beckdawg]

I feel it is SEA and LAA that make the most sense for him if they try to do a combo pack with Darvish. Mostly due to team needs and payroll.

I literally outlined why payroll is an issue for them. If they sign Darvish and still get Ohtani they aren't adding anything else of note. Realistically speaking if they are aiming to be a WS caliber team they need to add ~16 wins which is basically 4 players of Darvish's quality. And presumably that's to even have a shot because the astros are going to be strong again. The players the Angels currently have project to be worth about 35 wins which is still on an 80 win pace. The M's are projecting at 32 or 78 win pace. Astros project to win about 95 games. Even if you wanna talk wild card a team like the red sox is on 89ish win pace with projections.

So sure those two would likely make them an interesting wild card team but I don't see what changes to put them over that hump and into serious contender status. And the thing is, it's not like either team could theoretically just way out bid the cubs because they already have more money sunk than the cubs do and the cubs while having some holes have fewer as right now they project to win like 91 games.

 

[beckdawg]

Well, he has already stated he does not want to go where there is another Japanese star, so I think Darvish is not necessary.

That was speculation. His team has said jack about anything he wants.

 

[CSF77]

I literally outlined why payroll is an issue for them. If they sign Darvish and still get Ohtani they aren't adding anything else of note. Realistically speaking if they are aiming to be a WS caliber team they need to add ~16 wins which is basically 4 players of Darvish's quality. And presumably that's to even have a shot because the astros are going to be strong again. The players the Angels currently have project to be worth about 35 wins which is still on an 80 win pace. The M's are projecting at 32 or 78 win pace. Astros project to win about 95 games. Even if you wanna talk wild card a team like the red sox is on 89ish win pace with projections.

So sure those two would likely make them an interesting wild card team but I don't see what changes to put them over that hump and into serious contender status. And the thing is, it's not like either team could theoretically just way out bid the cubs because they already have more money sunk than the cubs do and the cubs while having some holes have fewer as right now they project to win like 91 games.

I agree that the Cubs would be ideal with a combo of Yu and himself. Then the focus becomes the pen and honestly it makes sense to trade either Happ or Schwarber to net a closer.

I was thinking it would end up Heyward moving between CF and RF with Yu in RF. LF would make the most sense with Happ there. Can lead off and no platoon needed which helps with the moving parts in CF and RF. With Schwarber it really depends on his splits and is he a platoon player. If they believe it is true then it is better to sell now before his value tanks.

 

[CSF77]

I think SD is the darkhorse. Watching MLBN earlier today, and they were naming a few people in SD orginization that have ties to Japan baseball, and Otani.

They have A.J. he did ramp up payroll before and 48 mil on the books is plenty of leg room to explode again.

I feel that they are a distance away from competition right now. They are a 70 win team right now and would have to add 20 wins just to be in the wild card. Even then the Rocks and Azl are better squads. SFG were equal on a implosion year.

At the end of the day you have to see where they are right now. Are they just rebuilding a farm they sold off? Could they explode pay roll again? If there enough talent in FA to bulster the core?

I think it is a interesting case scenario honestly but they are too far away right now. And it would take a earth moving off season to put them into the Dodgers world.

 

[CSF77]

That was speculation. His team has said jack about anything he wants.

All I recalled was he would like to pitch with Yu but pitching against him would be fine.

He never said that he wanted to play with no country men. Even then he did start that Japan only televised MLB games with Japanese players. Pretty much any team would be entering a new market place. I could see the $$$ going in the Rickett’s eyes right now.

 

[beckdawg]

I agree that the Cubs would be ideal with a combo of Yu and himself. Then the focus becomes the pen and honestly it makes sense to trade either Happ or Schwarber to net a closer.

I was thinking it would end up Heyward moving between CF and RF with Yu in RF. LF would make the most sense with Happ there. Can lead off and no platoon needed which helps with the moving parts in CF and RF. With Schwarber it really depends on his splits and is he a platoon player. If they believe it is true then it is better to sell now before his value tanks.

Not sure it will take moving Happ/Schwarber. The market is pretty flush with relievers. So, even dealing for one is going to be harder for sellers to find a huge demand. My guess at what happens is the cubs will make a run at Colome. It's hard to put a value on these things but Tyler Thornburg was dealt last offseason for Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington, Travis Shaw and Yeison Coca. He had a 3.18 ERA over 152.2 IP, with a 7.7 k/9 3.9 bb/9 though that had ticked up the previous year(8.9/3.1). Colome is at 3.14 ERA over 272.2 IP, with 7.99 k/9 and 2.90 bb/9. Thornburg was entering arb 1. Colome is entering arb 1 also.

In terms of that package, Dubon is a 50 grade prospect and #9 in their system but he's in AAA so he's not really a big time prospect. Probably someone similar to Zagunis in terms of value. Pennington is #22 in mil's system as a 45 grade. He was a 29th round pick but he looks like a pure reliever to me based on the scouting. Big fastball and decent decent curve but his change up has a 40 grade on it. Coca isn't in their top 30 which isn't surprising as he only made it state side this year. He'd be roughly equivalent to someone like Yonathan Perlaza. Shaw's tougher to gauge. He's an interesting guy but I don't think he was ever on Happ's level as a prospect. He's far and away the best player in the deal. Think you could make the case that someone like Victor Caratini is a similar value. Maybe he's worth a bit more I'm not sure. And in the case of Tampa they are kind of over a barrel. Everyone knows they need to cut money. So, I'm not sure you get much more than that sort of package for Colome.

I'd honestly be semi-surprised if the cubs don't land Colome. The two teams match up pretty well. And the great thing about Colome from the cubs perspective is you could still leave the door open for Davis if the money is right. As for how Ohtani gets PAs if he were to land with the cubs, I think people are over thinking that as I've repeatedly said. Even if he's going to get a lot all you do is just rest guys more often. That's something Maddon sorta wants to do anyways.

 

[brett05]

He wants both West Coast and "small" market.

Excluding Texas, of all remaining teams, Cubs have fewer residents living on the West Coast than any other contender, thus satisfying the small market provision.

Nailed it!

Except even out there they might have the most fans making them even there a big market team

 

[brett05]

I literally outlined why payroll is an issue for them. If they sign Darvish and still get Ohtani they aren't adding anything else of note. Realistically speaking if they are aiming to be a WS caliber team they need to add ~16 wins which is basically 4 players of Darvish's quality. And presumably that's to even have a shot because the astros are going to be strong again. The players the Angels currently have project to be worth about 35 wins which is still on an 80 win pace. The M's are projecting at 32 or 78 win pace. Astros project to win about 95 games. Even if you wanna talk wild card a team like the red sox is on 89ish win pace with projections.

So sure those two would likely make them an interesting wild card team but I don't see what changes to put them over that hump and into serious contender status. And the thing is, it's not like either team could theoretically just way out bid the cubs because they already have more money sunk than the cubs do and the cubs while having some holes have fewer as right now they project to win like 91 games.

Sigh...again, that is not at all how WAR works.
25 replacement level players does not equal a 95 win team

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Yes a team of replacement level players is actually 57 wins.

I am actually working on a statistic called WAM, wins above the mean, that will start off with "mean" players and a team of 81 wins.

 

[brett05]

Yes a team of replacement level players is actually 57 wins.

I am actually working on a statistic called WAM, wins above the mean, that will start off with "mean" players and a team of 81 wins.

Beckdawg is not alone. They start with 45 wins for a team and then add in the WAR of players. A replacement level player is 2 WAR so a team of 25 would be a 95 win team. WAR is used for value between players not how to come up with team wins.

 

[anotheridiot]

Well, he has already stated he does not want to go where there is another Japanese star, so I think Darvish is not necessary.

yeah, its odd that he does not want to go where there is another Japanese star, but the leading teams of Seattle and Texas are there because of Iricho and Darvish.

 

[CSF77]

yeah, its odd that he does not want to go where there is another Japanese star, but the leading teams of Seattle and Texas are there because of Iricho and Darvish.

That most likely came from his agents. His income should come from advertising and entering a market that has been established with a Japanese star player would hurt his Main source of revenue. Japan televises MLB games with Japanese players. His main source of income will be the advertising to those markets. He is not going to want to share his revenue with another player.

So from what I’ve read SD is a legit dark horse. A.J. keeps a low profile and they have 2 ex Japanese starts in the from office. Small market. If he wants low key and a place to just be a 2 way player in a pitchers park it is not a bad location. They are concidered the 2nd best farm behind the Sox right now. So they can build around him.

Again it comes down to his motivations. If it is about just playing the game the way he wants to and a ring is not his focus then SD is a good landing spot.

With Maeda in LA I doubt he lands there

 

[beckdawg]

Sigh...again, that is not at all how WAR works.
25 replacement level players does not equal a 95 win team

Who said it did? The general assumption on war is 25 replacement level players would be 40-45 wins.

Beckdawg is not alone. They start with 45 wins for a team and then add in the WAR of players. A replacement level player is 2 WAR so a team of 25 would be a 95 win team. WAR is used for value between players not how to come up with team wins.

This is also wrong. A replacement level player is 0 war. It's literally in the title(wins above replacment). An average every day MLB players is 2 WAR. In other words, if you have 8 starters who are at 2 WAR and 5 pitchers that's 26 WAR or 71 wins. Bench players rarely accrue enough playing time to even approach 2 wins. But for the sake of argument if you say the remaining 5 hitters are worth 1 win a piece and the remaining 7 relievers are worth around half a win each(relievers make far less "value") you're right around 81 wins for an "average" MLB team.