Passing Targets Based on Chiefs Offense

[WindyCity]

Looking at 3 years of the Chiefs offense and how many passes they threw and how many targets each position group got may give us some insight into what the Bears need and how they may distribute the targets in the upcoming season.

2017

Pass Attempts: 527

WR: 242
TE: 171
RB: 114


2016

Pass Attempts: 535

WR: 288
TE: 157
RB: 90


2015

Pass Attempts: 463

WR: 260
TE: 125
RB: 78


Averages

Pass Attempts: 508

WR: 263
TE: 151
RB: 94


Observations

-You have about 508 targets to distribute among the team.

-No WR in those 3 years had more than 124 targets. The slot WR [Wilson] was always around 60 receptions.

-Obviously we do not have Travis Kelce so the TE targets may be moved to another position.

-Before Kareem Hunt the Chiefs still threw a number of passes to the RB, even when they did not have as good a pass catching option.


Where do the 508 targets go?

WR Total Targets:

1:
2:
Slot:
4-6:

TE Total Targets:

1.
2.


RB Total Targets:

Howard:
Cohen:
3.

 

[modo]

We drafted a TE in the second round. Those TE targets better be there and be effective.

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[WindyCity]

We drafted a TE in the second round. Those TE targets better be there and be effective.

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Kelce gets an insane amount of targets. I am not sure Shaheen is ready for 150 targets. That is 10 passes a game going his direction.

 

[WindyCity]

I could see 151 being a reasonable amount of targets for the TE position if we add someone. I do not think that Shaheen and Brown are meant to handle that type of volume.

Shaheen-80

Burton [FA]-60

Brown-11



But at this moment at TE that would seem like am ambitious number.

 

[modo]

I could see 151 being a reasonable amount of targets for the TE position if we add someone. I do not think that Shaheen and Brown are meant to handle that type of volume.

Shaheen-80

Burton [FA]-60

Brown-11



But at this moment at TE that would seem like am ambitious number.

If Shaheen is the only legit TE then 150 is ambitious. I think they will get another TE just because of the offense

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[WindyCity]

I think Cohen and Howard can handle 94 targets.

I would not throw that many to Howard. Maybe 32, 2 a game, just to keep people honest.

Cohen in my opinion can handle more than the remaining 62. This could be where we see the bleed off of TE to Cohen getting 80 targets [5/game] seems reasonable along with 8-12 touches running the ball.

 

[WindyCity]

The more challenging part is putting a WR core together you are okay with giving 260-280 targets to.

Can you imagine last years crew with close to 300 targets? My god that would have been hideous.

 

[modo]

The more challenging part is putting a WR core together you are okay with giving 260-280 targets to.

Can you imagine last years crew with close to 300 targets? My god that would have been hideous.

If we had a coaching staff worth anything the WR staff would have performed better. While our WRs need a serious upgrade, the playcalling was pass adverse which did not help. Passing in obvious situations did not help.

Also, I am not sure why but out WRs did not look at the QB on obvious blitzes....it never got better, that is on the coaches.

 

[SugabearMVP]

The more challenging part is putting a WR core together you are okay with giving 260-280 targets to.

Can you imagine last years crew with close to 300 targets? My god that would have been hideous.

Hideous? Maybe. But then again I think the play calling has a huge impact as well. Hopefully with guys coming back off of injuries and adding some new talent, this will get better.

 

[iueyedoc]

I would imagine the most targets will go to the receiving targets most often getting open, that's why ignoring the best receiving target available in FA based on results from his position in a different group of players makes little sense.

A QB that moves on from a first or second read to a third is doing it because the first or second isn't open. I imagine Nagy will have his best player as the most frequent primary read, whomever that ends up being.

I doubt they sit and try and figure out how they are going to put together some arbitrary set of targets like WR: 242 TE: 171 RB: 114. It will develop more organically.

 

[WindyCity]

I would expect that we will see it grow organically.

But based on a quick glance of the numbers we need

-1 target that can handle a crap load of targets or a 2-3 targets that can handle a moderate amount at WR.

-A 2nd TE that can legitimately catch the ball.

-Possibly another RB that can catch in case Cohen goes down, because increasing Howard’s targets seems unwise.

 

[WindyCity]

My guess is that it is more likely that we have 2-3 WRs getting 70-80 targets than 1 getting 150.

 

[WindyCity]

I think the number of targets needs to be taken into account when signing free agents and the draft.

If you are signing Paul Richardson, needing him to get 140 targets and make 100 catches, you are probably not planning well.

The same thing goes for rookies. Depending on where you draft a guy will have an impact on how comfortable you are having him as the primary read. Most, not all, 4th round picks are going to have a limit to what they can produce.

 

[SugabearMVP]

Yeah and I really liked what I saw from Wright and Inman (for the most part) and can definitely see them and Mitchell gaining confidence in routes and catching. I'm really anxious to see our two guys come back from their injuries. Both guys are younger than all of our current starters but I just hope their injuries dont slow them down.

 

[ZenBear34]

I think the number of targets needs to be taken into account when signing free agents and the draft.

If you are signing Paul Richardson, needing him to get 140 targets and make 100 catches, you are probably not planning well.

The same thing goes for rookies. Depending on where you draft a guy will have an impact on how comfortable you are having him as the primary read. Most, not all, 4th round picks are going to have a limit to what they can produce.

The number of targets for what? Andy Reid's offense? Alex Smith's decisions? You don't plan targets anyways. A good quarterback is targeting whoever is open first in his progression. Also, you're looking at the numbers of a notoriously conservative quarterback, and many of those were almost certainly not the first of even second read on any given play. I'm not really sure what any of it has to do with anything.

 

[rawdawg]

Targets are pretty interesting to think about. It's going to be hard to figure out what the targets will look like until we know the entire personnel.

If the Bears really give the reins to Shaheen as the undisputed #1 and the clear most talented pass catching TE on the roster, then I would expect something like the Rams offense who only targeted TEs 88 times.

If the Bears somehow get a #1 WR like an Allen Robinson, then those are the type of guys that get 130-160 targets if healthy. Then you're looking at 70-80 or so targets for the #2, down to 50 and 30 for the 3 and 4 WRs.

The most likely scenario though is the Bears getting a guy that profiles as more of a #2 WR. If that's the case, I see 70-90 targets for the top 2 guys with a couple of guys at 50 or so targets thrown in. I wouldn't expect more than 45-50 targets for Shaheen.

Cohen's kind of the wildcard though, as he got 71 targets last year and I expect that number to go up depending on how much he is used as a receiver.

So, I'm going to randomly guess:

WR Total Targets:

1: FA/Meredith (90 targets)
2: FA/Meredith (75 targets)
Slot: FA (45 targets)
4: Rookie (35 targets)
5-6: White til he gets hurt and others (20-25 each)

TE Total Targets:

1. Shaheen (45 targets)
2. FA (25 targets)


RB Total Targets:

Howard: 30 targets
Cohen: 85 targets
3. FA or Cunningham (20 targets)

That's 285- 295 to the WRs, 70 to TEs, 135 to the RBs. 490- 500 total, with the other 10-20 going to the 3rd TE, fullback, and players coming in after injuries or whatever.

 

[TexasBearfan]

Nagy was brought up under Andy Reid, go back and check Jamaal Charles and Shady McCoy's catch numbers....IMO Jordan Howard does not catch well enough to be his lead dog. When you pull him out and put in the shrimp, you're basically announcing your intentions. If you have a dual threat in the game they can never be sure.

I'm dying to see if they raise hell with Howard to get on the jugs gun stat

 

[rawdawg]

Nagy was brought up under Andy Reid, go back and check Jamaal Charles and Shady McCoy's catch numbers....IMO Jordan Howard does not catch well enough to be his lead dog. When you pull him out and put in the shrimp, you're basically announcing your intentions. If you have a dual threat in the game they can never be sure.

I'm dying to see if they raise hell with Howard to get on the jugs gun stat

I think way too much is made with trying to mold the Bears personnel to be an exact replica of the Chiefs or Eagles offenses under Reid. First of all, Nagy is a different person. Obviously didn't call plays too much, therefore not likely that he had much say in the personnel. While I'm sure he'd love to have Charles, McCoy, Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce; if he is anywhere near worth the hire he'll be able to adapt his offense to best fit whatever personnel he has. If Pace hired Nagy and he had any inkling that he wouldn't be able to maximize Meredith, Shaheen and Howard (as various people have suggested).....then they'll both be fired in a couple years never to work again in jobs at a level as high as they're at now.

 

[Mjiton]

Yeah Windy's all sold on Nagy cloning Reid's system.
Post season boredom aside this requires far too many assumptions.

 

[Les Grossman]

I think way too much is made with trying to mold the Bears personnel to be an exact replica of the Chiefs or Eagles offenses under Reid. First of all, Nagy is a different person. Obviously didn't call plays too much, therefore not likely that he had much say in the personnel. While I'm sure he'd love to have Charles, McCoy, Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce; if he is anywhere near worth the hire he'll be able to adapt his offense to best fit whatever personnel he has. If Pace hired Nagy and he had any inkling that he wouldn't be able to maximize Meredith, Shaheen and Howard (as various people have suggested).....then they'll both be fired in a couple years never to work again in jobs at a level as high as they're at now.

I’m curious as to how much the PHI offense is similar to KC. It doesn’t seem like they have similar personnel at all at WR and RB. I like what PHI has done on offense.