Perfect Offseason in your mind

[CSF77]

Opt outs with less guaranteed maybe.
I love watching his flash and brilliance when it works, but I think that causes us to way over value his true overall worth. Assuming he reverts back to his 2018 year imo is bad gamble. The truth for Javy is probably somewhere in between 2018 and his 2020 train wreck which again imo doesn’t warrant this kind of deal.
I’d much prefer a higher avg $ per year now with a much shorter period giving him time to hit the market one more time for big $. By then we know more what he provides and how our recent draft pick develops.
If the market gives him that big long term secured guarantee at those numbers, I wouldn’t be the buyer.

He was co-depend on video of his swing mechanic. Seeing how much of the league nosedive he is not a unique case.

4-5 fWAR is a realistic avg over the next 5 years. It will decline.

 

[Castor76]

For me, you ke

Opt outs with less guaranteed maybe.
I love watching his flash and brilliance when it works, but I think that causes us to way over value his true overall worth. Assuming he reverts back to his 2018 year imo is bad gamble. The truth for Javy is probably somewhere in between 2018 and his 2020 train wreck which again imo doesn’t warrant this kind of deal.
I’d much prefer a higher avg $ per year now with a much shorter period giving him time to hit the market one more time for big $. By then we know more what he provides and how our recent draft pick develops.
If the market gives him that big long term secured guarantee at those numbers, I wouldn’t be the buyer.

Presuming 2018 is the ceiling, still in 2017 and 2019 his splits with runners on were .308/.362/.538 and .316/.352/.548 respectively. You put him behind two .350ish OBP guys and his numbers will be just fine. If batted #3 behind that, 57% of his PA come with runners on. And Javy should be trying to put one of the first two pitches in play because he rakes when he's aggressive.

 

[CSF77]

For me, you ke


Presuming 2018 is the ceiling, still in 2017 and 2019 his splits with runners on were .308/.362/.538 and .316/.352/.548 respectively. You put him behind two .350ish OBP guys and his numbers will be just fine. If batted #3 behind that, 57% of his PA come with runners on. And Javy should be trying to put one of the first two pitches in play because he rakes when he's aggressive.

Not correct.

If you go by OBA

Happ .361
Heyward: .392
Contreras .356
Rizzo .342


Baez refuses to walk. That means he is making more outs then these 4. He would slot #5 if Bryant is traded. 7 if not.

To me this is a solid base to work off of. If they trade Bryant then Baez hits #5. Then you are trying to figure out 6-9. Bote, Hoerner, Caratini if there as a DH, and if they trade or retain Schwarber.

But going as is the line up is

Happ
Heyward
Contreras
Rizzo
Bryant
Schwarber
Baez
Caratini
Hoerner

 

[Castor76]

Not correct.

If you go by OBA

Happ .361
Heyward: .392
Contreras .356
Rizzo .342


Baez refuses to walk. That means he is making more outs then these 4. He would slot #5 if Bryant is traded. 7 if not.

To me this is a solid base to work off of. If they trade Bryant then Baez hits #5. Then you are trying to figure out 6-9. Bote, Hoerner, Caratini if there as a DH, and if they trade or retain Schwarber.

But going as is the line up is

Happ
Heyward
Contreras
Rizzo
Bryant
Schwarber
Baez
Caratini
Hoerner

Yes, I am correct. We just have different opinions/philosophies. Nothing I stated was factually wrong. You are going off of one shortened season's worth of stats. I'm at least taking multiple year's worth of numbers and trying to find the best way to hide the shortcomings of the players.

You can disagree. That's fine. But I think your lineup would reduce Baez to getting maybe 40% of his PA in the situations where he performs best. You'd also be asking Heyward to produce in a spot at a rate he doesn't normally produce in. Over his career, Heyward is best batting #5/#6.

 

[CSF77]

Yes, I am correct. We just have different opinions/philosophies. Nothing I stated was factually wrong. You are going off of one shortened season's worth of stats. I'm at least taking multiple year's worth of numbers and trying to find the best way to hide the shortcomings of the players.

You can disagree. That's fine. But I think your lineup would reduce Baez to getting maybe 40% of his PA in the situations where he performs best. You'd also be asking Heyward to produce in a spot at a rate he doesn't normally produce in. Over his career, Heyward is best batting #5/#6.

Javy has a career .304 OBA. That is shit. He is a out 70% of the time. IE 600 PA he is out 420 times. So this is not a 1 year gauge.

Contreras career .351 OBA 600 PA out 390 times.

Heyward career .349 OBA. Basically hovering around Wilson.

So we are talking 30 extra outs per year on avg. There is no reason why a hitter with a .300 OBA should be absorbing more PA's. None. You can fudge a option all day. Trumpy has proven that any idiot will buy false logic.

I gave Javy #5 because of that faulty logic because he will get some clean up RBI's. But the problem is he will not be on base enough for the hitters behind him. So no, added PA's is added outs. Basic logic.

 

[CSF77]

To be clear. That OBA will end up[ costing Javy 100 mil in F/A. He would be getting 300 mil with his talent. That one aspect will cost him plenty. 30 HR and GG D in a premium D position justifies 300 mil. .300 OBA is not MLB quality PA's. Pure and simple. It has nothing to do with his BA or anything like that. Shoot guys that hit .240 can still put up a .350 OBA because they will walk around a 10% clip. If Javy was doing that he would get 250M. Simple reality.

 

[CSF77]

If we are talking perfect:

Sign Profar for 2B He has a 10% walk rate and has shown improvement at the plate. It is his walk rate and the fact that he is a SH that intrigues me the most. With him you could think of a LF/2B platoon with Schwarber and Hoerner.

SP target Archer.

4th OF offer Hamilton a shot in S/T to nab a job. His OBA sucks. But he is arguably the best D CF in the game and his speed is game changing. That is a weapon off the bench and if he is getting on base some starts.

That is the way I look at it. The whole Bryant/Schwarber thing will work itself out. That has little to do with team needs. Sure they open up a glaring need but with Profar it lessens.


Depth:

DH: Caratini
C: Contreras, Amaya
3B: Bryant, Bote
SS: Baez
2B: Profar, Hoerner
LF: Schwarber
CF: Happ, Hamiliton
RF: Heyward

Rotation:
Darvish, Hendricks, Archer, Mills, Alzolay

Pen:

Kimbrel, Wick, Adam, Ryan, Steele, Underwood, Wieck, Tepera, Winkler (for now)