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Not confused. Expected Points still uses points as the measurement, and the vast majority of NFL plays, even successful ones, don't result in points. Its an all or nothing criteria, which is even more ridiculous when you consider its being used for an INDIVIDUAL metric. You have no idea what you are talking about, which isn't a surprise since we've delved into statistics.
Your repeated example of teams scoring 50% of the time from a certain down and distance is ridiculous. Please tell me what down-and-distance would actually have a team scoring a TD 20% of the time, a FG 30% of the time, and nothing 50% of the time. Is Marc Trestman sending his FG team out on 2nd down again?
Not sure what "historical data" you keep referring to, but I assure you that the EPA is statistically insignificant. You have explained nothing.
SMH! You are being dense. It is calculating the expected points of teams that have 1st and 10 at the 50. The 20% is not a function of them scoring a TD on the next play. It is a function of how often NFL teams score on a drive where they have 1st and 10 at the 50. So the 20% is based on all plays from that point and whether they led to a TD, FG or zero points. Doesn't matter if the score came on the next play or 5 plays from now. The play by play data would tell you how often teams scored once it was 1st and 10 at the 50. All you have to do is review drive summaries for all NFL games and you can calculate the percentages across the NFL for a given time period.