The thing is the Bears could go 10-6 and still end up 3rd in their division. The Packers will probably win the division. (As a Bears fan it KILLS me to type that!) The Vikes will still be a good team even if Favre stays retired, but, obviously not as good as they would be with him.
As bad as the Bears were, they could've been 11-5
last year, except for a few bad plays. They had a chance to win the first Packers game, could've beat the Eagles and the Falcons, and definitely should have beaten the 49ers.
This year, the defense
will be better, although I'm a little concerned about our secondary depth. Injuries are already starting to pile up. The offense should be a little improved with the addition of Taylor, Manumaleuna, a healthier Forte, and more experienced receivers. A lot of the offensive success will hinge on how well they execute Martz's offense, and if the O-line improves.
Barring injuries and assuming the offense can block for 3 seconds, (no guarantees there) here is how I break down the season:
The Bears will go 4-2 in the NFC North, sweeping Detroit and splitting with Green bay and Minnesota. Against the NFC East, the Bears will go 2-2 beating the Redskins and either the Eagles at home or the Giants in New York. Against the AFC West the Bears will beat the Bills and the Dolphins to go 2-2.
Their 2 "strength of schedule" games are against the Seahawks and at Carolina. Both of those should be wins.
That adds up to 10-6. I wouldn't be too surprised to see them go 3-1 in the NFC East and/or AFC East. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose two of the games I have them winning, either.
So I say anywhere between 8-8 and 12-4, but my best guess is 10-6. Just like most everybody else!