Predicting Ball Feeding for Bears Passing Offense

[BearDown104]

I appreciate the work that's gone into this. It might be slightly optimistic based on the entire team's first year in the offense, but I'm hoping for the best. When everything is rolling the way it should, which should be the second half of the year, I believe the Bears are going to be a very troublesome team to defend because of the choices the defense will have to make.

Early on though if the Bears do the logical thing and go conservative- short passes to backs out of the backfield, screens, and short routes, then the offense will have a harder time of it because there will be lots of defenders crowding the line, daring you to throw on them. If on the other hand the Bears show the league early that they can and will go deep or at least throw behind safeties that are crowding the front-seven area, defenses will have to play much more disciplined.

This is why it's critical that CW be capable and happy with taking 10 yard completions, some of them over the middle, from the pocket. I am not convinced that he can do that just yet.

Exactly this. Ben Johnson has shown to scheme open favorable matchups in man coverage. He has to trust those guys on short throws that they can beat or break one tackle for big gains. I'm hoping BJ pounds this into his head. It's not necessarily even a check down, just a great matchup.

 

[DefNextYear]

All the overall numbers seem fair enough. The only real thing I'll add is that I expect only 1 TE will flourish and I expect that distribution to be skewed towards Loveland as the season goes on. Depending on his development, it might work out that they end up around the 50/50 split you project. If Loveland takes all year to develop, Kmet will win catches... if Loveland is ready day 1, then he'll dominate catches.

Another part hard to predict will be what Ben does in the slot. Ben utilizes the slot well. ASB split his time there and the Bears have a couple guys who could be effective there. I expect Rome will continue to get a good amount of slot opportunities, with Burden as well. Depending on how they distribute those, I could see it impacting those catches.

 

[Forty-six]

For distribution, 60% of the passing offense goes through Moore and Odunze. 30% goes through Kmet Loveland and Burden. The final 10% will be filtered through lesser options

I feel this is a pretty good break down of how things will go this year. I'll add that I think Kmet is going to be primarily used for blocking which should free Loveland up for a lot of balls thrown his way. Loveland could be a monster in the middle of the field, in the red zone and even a vertical threat down the field.

 

[gallagher]

I've been saying it for some time, but when we watch Loveland in action, we should be comparing his athletic abilities to a young Jimmy Graham. He is nimble, and not just for a TE - he is good at manipulating small spaces and turning quickly to show the QB the numbers on his chest. He catches the ball away from his body, and can turn upfield with urgency.

Enjoy the highlight reels over the next several years, fellas. We have a really good prospect, and an HC that designs plays to take advantage of the weapons at his disposal. No more square peg, round hole problems.

 

[knoxville7]

Moore - 90 receptions
Odunze - 70 receptions
Burden - 50 receptions
Loveland - 55 receptions
Kmet - 40 receptions
Swift - 45 receptions
Everyone else - 30 receptions

swift aint seeing 45 catches

he had 42 catches last year with fewer weapons to share with. take the under on that one

 

[gallagher]

swift aint seeing 45 catches

he had 42 catches last year with fewer weapons to share with. take the under on that one

I doubt he crosses 25 catches. I struggle to imagine a scenario where the team is healthy Swift is the best option to pass to. He's not very good at pass blocking from what I've seen, so he's not going to be held back to chip and get open for a dump off pass. He dances too much, looking for a big lane to run through, so I don't really see him being too great in the screen game either.

Maybe he is a fantastic route runner and can run a wheel better than I have ever seen. Maybe? We'll see.

 

[knoxville7]

I doubt he crosses 25 catches. I struggle to imagine a scenario where the team is healthy Swift is the best option to pass to. He's not very good at pass blocking from what I've seen, so he's not going to be held back to chip and get open for a dump off pass. He dances too much, looking for a big lane to run through, so I don't really see him being too great in the screen game either.

Maybe he is a fantastic route runner and can run a wheel better than I have ever seen. Maybe? We'll see.

Yeah, i mean he has DJ Moore and Rome increasing their catch totals

then he has loveland and burden added combining for 105 catches, with Kmet still nabbing 40 balls which was close to what he got last year

theres just only so many catches to go around

 

[Butkus34]

whether or not the Offense is extremely efficient or working towards finding it's way, it will be one of the better offenses the Bears have had in many many years, if not one of the better ones ever. Sustained drives will mean more chances for all skill players. Gonna be fun to watch.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

swift aint seeing 45 catches

he had 42 catches last year with fewer weapons to share with. take the under on that one

I doubt he crosses 25 catches. I struggle to imagine a scenario where the team is healthy Swift is the best option to pass to. He's not very good at pass blocking from what I've seen, so he's not going to be held back to chip and get open for a dump off pass. He dances too much, looking for a big lane to run through, so I don't really see him being too great in the screen game either.

Maybe he is a fantastic route runner and can run a wheel better than I have ever seen. Maybe? We'll see.

This would be inconsistent with Johnson's offense history. Your points are well noted, but I would only add that it is not necessarily a matter of choice when throwing to an RB, but rather the design of the play itself. Imagine 3 receptions a game for 17 games and you're already at 51 receptions.

 

[knoxville7]

This would be inconsistent with Johnson's offense history. Your points are well noted, but I would only add that it is not necessarily a matter of choice when throwing to an RB, but rather the design of the play itself. Imagine 3 receptions a game for 17 games and you're already at 51 receptions.

sure, its possible. but then it is highly likely one of the other guys he listed and their catch totals come in under his predictions then

again, only so many catches to go around

 

[gallagher]

This would be inconsistent with Johnson's offense history. Your points are well noted, but I would only add that it is not necessarily a matter of choice when throwing to an RB, but rather the design of the play itself. Imagine 3 receptions a game for 17 games and you're already at 51 receptions.

But then we are swiftly approaching the problem of square pegs and round holes. Gibbs is a better receiving option than Swift, so more passing plays should be going to a guy like Gibbs. Swift shouldn't be the guy they throw out their on passing downs because he's not that good a blocker.

Here, you're likely to have four better receiving options in any given play when Swift is out there, so long as the team is fully healthy. Those short passes that are designed to give an opportunity to burst upfield should be going to Moore and Burden. EDIT: To conclude, if Johnson is designing plays to fit the personnel, this offense will not resemble the output of the Detroit offense last year because the sun of the weaponry at his disposal do not resemble what he had in Detroit.

 

[remydat]

swift aint seeing 45 catches

he had 42 catches last year with fewer weapons to share with. take the under on that one

Well I think your RBs get a certain number of checkdowns regardless. Gibbs and Montgomery had 52 and 36 so 88 combined at RB and Swift is the best pass catcher. Swift also had 46, 62 and 48 his 3 years with the Lions and premise was Caleb adds 30 or 40 more completions than last year. So we shall see.

Yeah, i mean he has DJ Moore and Rome increasing their catch totals

then he has loveland and burden added combining for 105 catches, with Kmet still nabbing 40 balls which was close to what he got last year

theres just only so many catches to go around

The premise of the OP was that Caleb gets 380-390 completions compared to 351 last year. My list added up to 380. Allens 70 receptions are gone so between that and Caleb adding 29-39 receptions that is basically your 105 receptions from Loveland and Burden.

 

[knoxville7]

Well I think your RBs get a certain number of checkdowns regardless. Gibbs and Montgomery had 52 and 36 so 88 combined at RB and Swift is the best pass catcher. Swift also had 46, 62 and 48 his 3 years with the Lions and premise was Caleb adds 30 or 40 more completions than last year. So we shall see.

sure, i can see caleb adding 30 - 40 more completions. but you are also adding loveland and burden into the mix to take up those catches. you also have DJ and Rome getting more catches than last year.

only major subtraction is keenan allens 70 catches.

so you are expecting about 100 catches between allen and calebs increase.

you already added 105 with loveland and burden. then added another roughly 30 increase between DJ and Rome. then increases the RB catch total

the math aint mathing as they say. somebody aint getting fed as much as you think they will

 

[remydat]

But then we are swiftly approaching the problem of square pegs and round holes. Gibbs is a better receiving option than Swift, so more passing plays should be going to a guy like Gibbs. Swift shouldn't be the guy they throw out their on passing downs because he's not that good a blocker.

Here, you're likely to have four better receiving options in any given play when Swift is out there, so long as the team is fully healthy. Those short passes that are designed to give an opportunity to burst upfield should be going to Moore and Burden. EDIT: To conclude, if Johnson is designing plays to fit the personnel, this offense will not resemble the output of the Detroit offense last year because the sun of the weaponry at his disposal do not resemble what he had in Detroit.

Swift had 62 receptions under Johnson in 2021. RBs by their nature get a lot of checkdowns regardless and Swift got the most passing snaps than any RB last year.

 

[remydat]

sure, i can see caleb adding 30 - 40 more completions. but you are also adding loveland and burden into the mix to take up those catches. you also have DJ and Rome getting more catches than last year.

only major subtraction is keenan allens 70 catches.

so you are expecting about 100 catches between allen and calebs increase.

you already added 105 with loveland and burden. then added another roughly 30 increase between DJ and Rome. then increases the RB catch total

the math aint mathing as they say. somebody aint getting fed as much as you think they will

Think your math is off. Moore had 98 last year so he is losing 8 receptions as I have him at 90. Swift is gaining 3. Not sure the issue here.

 

[gallagher]

Swift had 62 receptions under Johnson in 2021. RBs by their nature get a lot of checkdowns regardless and Swift got the most passing snaps than any RB last year.

Swift received the second most receptions on his team that year, and they won only 3 games. I have no problem believing that Swift was a better receiving weapon than Kalif Raymond. And that team was not using Hockenson well, which is why he was traded. Now, they have three WRs and a TE that should be better options.

And Swift got the most passing snaps of any RB on this team under a disappointing OC who was fired, and a QB coach that was elevated to interim HC. These just dont add up in my view. Swift will get checkdowns, but with the wealth of weapons this offense now has with a better play designer, there is an entire field of better options that will be difficult to fully cover.

 

[knoxville7]

Think your math is off. Moore had 98 last year so he is losing 8 receptions as I have him at 90. Swift is gaining 3. Not sure the issue here.

no issue really, just that your math doesnt add up really

and i said you have DJ and Rome increasing their catch totals(you have rome up like 20 catches and DJ down 8. that is a net gain of 12 catches, so i was incorrect on the total but it is still an increase nonetheless).

 

[Washington]

The universe did not want the bears to draft any of their top rated backs this year. I think they roll into camp with what they have, and then re-assess afterwards. They’ll definitely address it next off season.

Agreed. The universe did not want them to get a LT in the 1st round either. I was equally shocked when Banks was picked at 9. Praying now that Ozzy or Kiran have what it takes to be the LT in '26.

 

[Enasic]

Agreed. The universe did not want them to get a LT in the 1st round either. I was equally shocked when Banks was picked at 9. Praying now that Ozzy or Kiran have what it takes to be the LT in '26.

Yeah the board just didn’t fall their way. I at least feel pretty comfortable at LT with Ozzy/Kiran while Braxton gets healthy. If fully healthy, I can see a world where Braxton returns next season too. He’s not elite, but he’s better than most Bears fans give him credit for. He’s a solid/average starting LT at minimum, and he’s still only 26, so it’s not like he can’t continue to get better.

 

[remydat]

no issue really, just that your math doesnt add up really

and i said you have DJ and Rome increasing their catch totals(you have rome up like 20 catches and DJ down 8. that is a net gain of 12 catches, so i was incorrect on the total but it is still an increase nonetheless).

It adds up to 380 which was the target set in the OP. Net Moore and Rome are up 12 but I have other guys catching 30 when last year they caught 42 so that is a decrease of 12 so that is where the Rome and Odunze increase comes from. Kmet also loses 7 receptions so that is where Swift's increase of 3 is coming from.

At the end of the day it probably boils down to whether the 2nd RB or Olamides have a sizeable receiving role as that will eat into the other guys but the math adds up to 380 which again is the target.