Prediction Time: 2009-2010 Season

[jsain360]

mlewinth wrote:

??? ?????? wrote:

cool007 wrote:

That's the optimists scenario.



I think Derrick Rose will play great this year. But point guard is one of the least important positions on an NBA team in terms of impact.

I disagree with this statement 100%. In MOST situations, I agree on most teams PG is probobly the least important. Reason for that, is that there arent alot of great PG's. I think when GREAT PG's are concerned, they are one of the most important positions on the floor with regards to impace because they elevate a team and make others play better. Look at New Orleans, CP3 adds 30 wins to that team. If Rose turns out to be a great PG, the neccessity for a great player at other positions lessens dramatically.

PG is very important, CP3 made Tyson Chandler an offensive threat, and we'll see how good the Sixers are w/o Andre Miller, Steve Nash is the main cog in Pheonix, look at what Chauncey did for the Nuggets, Tony Parker in SA, PG play is vital, he controls the game just like a quarterback, teams today a putting a huge emphasis on PGs.

 

[??? ??????]

mlewinth wrote:

quote]

The Bullls improved 24 wins when they brought Gordon in. He's not the entire reason for the 24 win improvement, but he's the biggest reason for it.

You're undervaluing Gordon. Guys who can step up and score at the end of the game are valuable. Guys who can shoot you back into a game are valuable. Gordon does both of these things, and was really the only guy on the team who could do them. And he consistently did those two things. Guys who can do those two things are worth a lot of wins.

Totally different situation. When we brought in Gordon, we had very little, so he was a BIG part of our team. We have a much better team now then we had then, much more depth and much more experience. We won't be the 2003 Bulls without Ben Gordon.[/quote]

But they will be like the 07-08 Bulls under ballboy Boylan, when Boylan wasn't playing Gordon proper minutes, or in the fourth quarter.

 

[??? ??????]

jsain360 wrote:

mlewinth wrote:

??? ?????? wrote:

cool007 wrote:

That's the optimists scenario.



I think Derrick Rose will play great this year. But point guard is one of the least important positions on an NBA team in terms of impact.

I disagree with this statement 100%. In MOST situations, I agree on most teams PG is probobly the least important. Reason for that, is that there arent alot of great PG's. I think when GREAT PG's are concerned, they are one of the most important positions on the floor with regards to impace because they elevate a team and make others play better. Look at New Orleans, CP3 adds 30 wins to that team. If Rose turns out to be a great PG, the neccessity for a great player at other positions lessens dramatically.

PG is very important, CP3 made Tyson Chandler an offensive threat, and we'll see how good the Sixers are w/o Andre Miller, Steve Nash is the main cog in Pheonix, look at what Chauncey did for the Nuggets, Tony Parker in SA, PG play is vital, he controls the game just like a quarterback, teams today a putting a huge emphasis on PGs.

These great point guards have won nothing. Look at where the great point guards were. Chris Paul, 7th seed, first round exit. Deron Williams, 9th seed, first round exit. Steve Nash, didn't even make the playoffs.

If you look at the top 2 teams each year since Jordan retired, you get the "best players" being.

2009: Kobe Bryant (SG) / Dwight Howard (C)
2008: Kevin Garnett (PF) / Kobe Bryant (SG)
2007: Tim Duncan (PF) / Lebron James (SF)
2006: Dwyane Wade (SG) / Dirk Nowitzki (PF)
2005: Tim Duncan (PF) / Ben Wallace (C) - Chauncey Billups (PG)
2004: Ben Wallace (C) [best defensive season/postseason in NBA history. B illups idn't getting a share of this best player] / Shaquille O'neal (C)
2003: Tim Duncan (PF) / Jason Kidd (PG)
2002: Shaquille O'neal (C) / Jason Kidd (PG)
2001: Shaquille O'neal (C) / Allen Iverson (SG)
2000: Shaquille O'neal (C) / Reggie Miller (SG)
1999: Tim Duncan (PF) / Allan Houston (SG)

If you give 2 points for being in the left, and 1 point for being in the right, you get:

PF - 11
C - 9.5
SG - 8
PG - 2.5
SF - 1

Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, John Stockton, all these great point guards, no rings between them. Even a guy like Gary Payton couldn't win a ring when they were any good.

I think it's clear what's most important in the NBA. Big men are going to win you the championships. Not far behind are dynamic wing scorers.

 

[jsain360]

??? ?????? wrote:

jsain360 wrote:

mlewinth wrote:

??? ?????? wrote:

cool007 wrote:

That's the optimists scenario.



I think Derrick Rose will play great this year. But point guard is one of the least important positions on an NBA team in terms of impact.

I disagree with this statement 100%. In MOST situations, I agree on most teams PG is probobly the least important. Reason for that, is that there arent alot of great PG's. I think when GREAT PG's are concerned, they are one of the most important positions on the floor with regards to impace because they elevate a team and make others play better. Look at New Orleans, CP3 adds 30 wins to that team. If Rose turns out to be a great PG, the neccessity for a great player at other positions lessens dramatically.

PG is very important, CP3 made Tyson Chandler an offensive threat, and we'll see how good the Sixers are w/o Andre Miller, Steve Nash is the main cog in Pheonix, look at what Chauncey did for the Nuggets, Tony Parker in SA, PG play is vital, he controls the game just like a quarterback, teams today a putting a huge emphasis on PGs.

These great point guards have won nothing. Look at where the great point guards were. Chris Paul, 7th seed, first round exit. Deron Williams, 9th seed, first round exit. Steve Nash, didn't even make the playoffs.

If you look at the top 2 teams each year since Jordan retired, you get the "best players" being.

2009: Kobe Bryant (SG) / Dwight Howard (C)
2008: Kevin Garnett (PF) / Kobe Bryant (SG)
2007: Tim Duncan (PF) / Lebron James (SF)
2006: Dwyane Wade (SG) / Dirk Nowitzki (PF)
2005: Tim Duncan (PF) / Ben Wallace (C) - Chauncey Billups (PG)
2004: Ben Wallace (C) [best defensive season/postseason in NBA history. B illups idn't getting a share of this best player] / Shaquille O'neal (C)
2003: Tim Duncan (PF) / Jason Kidd (PG)
2002: Shaquille O'neal (C) / Jason Kidd (PG)
2001: Shaquille O'neal (C) / Allen Iverson (SG)
2000: Shaquille O'neal (C) / Reggie Miller (SG)
1999: Tim Duncan (PF) / Allan Houston (SG)

If you give 2 points for being in the left, and 1 point for being in the right, you get:

PF - 11
C - 9.5
SG - 8
PG - 2.5
SF - 1

Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, John Stockton, all these great point guards, no rings between them. Even a guy like Gary Payton couldn't win a ring when they were any good.

I think it's clear what's most important in the NBA. Big men are going to win you the championships. Not far behind are dynamic wing scorers.

Stockton has been to a pair of finals, he ran into Jordan, Chauncey NBA champ, Tony Parker has 2 rings, Kidd ran into Shaq and Kobe.

The league is becoming more gaurd oriented, but you still need a big man, but its hard to get a dependable big man, Isiah Thomas 2-time NBA champ, Maurice Cheeks NBA champ, Walt Frazier NBA champ.

 

[cool007]

??? ?????? wrote:

cool007 wrote:

I have been Gordon's biggest supporter there is but I don't think we will miss Gordon as much (yes there will be some games where we will go, man I wish we had Gordon still). But most of it can be forgotten if Rose takes that leap that most star players do, if Deng is healthy for the most part (70 games), Hinrich and Salmons provide shooting and scoring, Tyrus and Noah don't suck, and Miller stays healthy enough.

Anything that James Johnson gives us would be just gravy along with Pargo.

I still think we will win around 45 wins (give or take 2).

That's the optimists scenario.

What happens when Luol Deng misses his 15-20 games next year? What happens when Kirk Hinrich goes on his annual 2 month shooting slump right before the trade deadline? What happens if Brad Miller is diminished this year? What happens if John Salmons doesn't have another career year, and goes back to his level of production before this year? What if Tyrus Thomas still plays erratically? What if Joakim Noah still can't man the interior on defense?

Well, I might 1 or 2 of those happening but NOT ALL OF THOSE things and all at once. If you want to play that game then I can come up with the same for each and every single team. I am confident enough that Salmons will atleast be 15ppg-18ppg guy, Hinrich - is not a major (starting PG) player anymore. He is there mostly for defense and shooting/scoring when opportunity comes. Deng? Well I just hope he stays healthy. Miller? I think his leadership is really undervalued - even if he doesn't play, he will definitely help Noah and Tyrus develop and help them focused.

James Johnson is the big question mark on this season. The talent is there for him to make a big impact, but the question is, will he.

I don't consider James Johnson gravy. I consider what James Johnson does to be crucial to this team's success next year.

James Johnson, the reason I said gravy is because he won't be expected to come in and play 30mpg or have a BIG role on the team - atleast not yet. He does have skills so I am pretty sure he will help for the time he plays (15mpg).

I think Derrick Rose will play great this year. But point guard is one of the least important positions on an NBA team in terms of impact. Without a good big man, this team will be limited in what they can do next year.

Well Rose is going to redefine the PG position then. Don't tell me CP3 or D.Williams don't have big impact on the game. This is new era and the rules really favor Guards these days. If Rose gets the respect from the zebras, then I am pretty sure he will be a force to reckon with and because of that, it will open up for Salmons/Deng/Hinrich/Tyrus/Miller/Noah/JJ etc. You need 1 dominant player (whichever that position might be), that really draws lot of attention and if Rose does have improved his jumper, I see our team a lot like Wizards team that was 3 years back (remember they were top East team before Arenas got hurt that year).

Ben Gordon is a special NBA talent. An All NBA player? No. But a special talent in that he brings elite three point shooting, clutch shooting, and has pretty much every move there is for a guard to have offensively. The Bulls current shooting guard corp is not special. Solid players, yes, but not a special talent like Gordon is. Ben Gordon draws so much defensive attention, that he made the game easier for guys like Hinrich and Salmons, and even Rose.

Yes, I won't disagree and he will be missed but with Gordon, I thought we would be a 48-50 win team but without him, I see us about 45 wins team. Yes, I am being optimistic but the whole thing depends on Rose. If he does that big leap in his 2nd year like most star players do, then I think after December, we won't miss Gordon as much. Especially if Deng stays healthy and the whole team is relatively healthy. If Gordon is a special talent, then Rose is even more of special talent. Also, we won't have Nocioni and Gooden as ball hogs anymore and Salmons is really underrated by you. I think he will have a very good year similar to what Gordon has had - not exact but close.

Now he's gone. The Bulls were never going to win anything significant with Rose/Gordon as the stars. They always needed that good big man if they were ever serious about winning a championship. However, Rose and that good big man probably won't win a championship either. They will be still missing that third core player...which Gordon could have and should have been.

I do agree. Give Rose and Gordon a very good inside player (any of Bosh/Boozer/Amare) and we would be a championship caliber team but I am willing to take a chance at 2010. If Rose does become the superstar that we think he can, Signing Bosh or any other star player (Wade/Bron/Boozer/Amare), I have no doubt that we will be a championship caliber team. We just have to fill in the blanks - depending on what we need.

I also didn't want to pay Gordon close to $12mil a year either. ($11mil a year was my max).

Now we have only one player who can be a member of a championship trio, and that is Rose. With only one of those players, I have a difficult time seeing the Bulls winning 45 games, even if I think Rose will have an outstanding season.

Yes, but you forget, if we can sign one of those top free agents (we just need 1) - let's say we sign Wade (very good possibility). We also have a very solid Role players and very good 3rd option in Deng.

I would love to have:

Rose
Wade
Deng
Tyrus
Noah

as a starting 5, I think if Rose improves his defense, taht is a hell of a defensive unit with a great scoring trio as well. If that is not a championship team, then I don;t know what to say.

 

[houheffna]

Cool 007, I would say this is not a championship team but Wade worked wonders a few years ago with Miami. So maybe....the problem is, there is no Shaq on the Bulls squad. Who I think is very undervalued at this time.

 

[??? ??????]

cool007 I agree with you that if we get Wade/Lebron that we can be a championship team. But those guys are top 4 NBA players (Lebron being #1, Wade probably #3 in my rankings [I have it as Lebron --> Howard --> Wade --> Kobe --> Paul --> Roy].

The rule changes made it easier for guards to score. They also made it harder to defend. The reason a great big man is better than a great point guard still rings true, and that is that a great big man has a far greater impact on a defense than a guard.

 

[cool007]

Yes, that is fine but how many great big men even are there???? I am talking about those that play at BOTH ends of the floor (only young one is Dwight) Jury is still out on Oden and couple of others - Shaq, KG and Duncan are in their tail end of their careers.

Neither Bosh nor Amare or Boozer are even close to good at anchoring defense.

IMO, to win a championship, you need that SUPERSTAR who is top 5 player at the time and has a buddying star to take some load off of him and good supporting casts (who understands their roles and play well enough).

See Bulls' championship and I see very similarities with Bulls team right now, only difference is we have that Pippen in Rose but don't have MJ like player - this is why I would rather have Wade or LeBron than Bosh or Amare. We already have Rodman/Kukoc/Harper players (Tyrus/Noah/Deng/etc) - we just another superstar to go along with Rose.

and yeah Coach for that matter.

 

[TheStig]

I also think NJ will make some noise this year. They have a nice little core coming along with harris, lee and lopez. If they can sign Amare, boozer or aldridge next offseason, he will be good.

 

[jsain360]

TheStig wrote:

I also think NJ will make some noise this year. They have a nice little core coming along with harris, lee and lopez. If they can sign Amare, boozer or aldridge next offseason, he will be good.

They have some good young players, but they still will be the worst team in the league, and that noise, the bricks that would be laid in the IZOD Center.

 

[TheStig]

jsain360 wrote:

TheStig wrote:

I also think NJ will make some noise this year. They have a nice little core coming along with harris, lee and lopez. If they can sign Amare, boozer or aldridge next offseason, he will be good.

They have some good young players, but they still will be the worst team in the league, and that noise, the bricks that would be laid in the IZOD Center.

worst is pretty harsh, i think they will finish 10th in the EC.

 

[Frank Breakfast Styleham]

Is everyone saving these predictions?

I'm sticking with every one of the picks and am ready to collect in June.

Anyone want to ammend anything while it's still in the off-season?