Quick tidbit to making advanced metrics easier to comprehend

[beckdawg]

So, I get why some people don't like saber stuff. In some areas it's needlessly obtuse. One of those areas I actually ran into myself. To cut to the chase, I wanted to know how much a run saved defensively actually mattered. So, for instance how you would compare a player who was a 100 wRC+ player(league average) but a great glove to someone who was an average glove but a better bat. Here's what i found....

So basically if you use wRC which is a stat that is meant to represent how much a player contributes run wise, an "average" player comes out to I believe it was 77 wRC per 600 PAs. I'm not interested in debating the methodology here but if you just look at a ball park estimate that feels about right if you break down what an average team scores in terms of runs. So what I did from there was found out how much wRC you could expect at 105 and 110 wRC+. Each step up equated to some where between 4 and 5 wRC which is pretty handy.

The up shot of all of this is basically that each run you save defensively basically equates to 1% better in terms of hitter. This is a useful thing to keep in mind IMO. For example, let's talk everyone's favorite hot button case.... 2012 Darwin Barney. He had a 75 wRC+ that year. I remember it being quite the point of contention because bWAR gave him a lofty value(4.6 to be precise). Fangraphs for what it's worth had him at 1.9 fWAR. So this was the exact type of situation i was looking at. If Barney were an average defender what would his bat need to be in order to be roughly equal?

Part of that depends on which metric you want to use. I'm not gonna dive into that debate here but the two we're looking at put his DRS at a whopping 28 and his UZR/150 at12.5. So, if we use my quick rule of thumb here an average defender would basically need to be a 103 wRC+ hitter based on his DRS numbers and an 88 wRC+ based on his UZR/150. Given what we know about Barney.... that feels pretty accurate actually. You're talking about some where between a below average and slightly above league average player depending on how generous you wanna be with his glove.

Just figured I'd share this because it's pretty useful when talking about contrasting style players. For example, if you're debating say Schwarber and Joc like we were prior to the season, Schwarber was like-1 to -2 depending on what metric you used defensively and for his career was a 112 wRC+ bat. Peterson in LF is some where between +5 and +7 and had a career 116 wRC+. So if you adjust them based on their defense Schwarber would go down to like 110 wRC+ and Joc would go up to like 121-123. Obviously Joc has played shitty this year but when viewed through that lens you can see why the cubs would prefer Joc

 

[CSF77]

I feel that most don't understand it. When they watch the game they see BA and HR and ERA. So that is what they place value in and see saber metrics as nerd ball.

 

[Bust]

btw, OP, on the topic of nerd stats your guy JayHey was sitting at negative WAR for the last 2 weeks, heh. He's inched up to 0.1 WAR after that game winning hit tho, lol

 

[knoxville7]

Most understand sabermetrics...it’s not difficult to grasp.

that said, I remember when OBP was the “key” statistic. Then it’s like someone realized, hey it’s great to have hitters that get on base a bunch...but you still need guys to drive them in. Situational hitting is still the most important thing in regards to hitting IMO. Not to mention having a diversified lineup, not just 8 guys that all do the same thing because the sabermetrics say it’s the most important stat

 

[truthbedamned]

As soon as Bernstein starts talking sabermetrics I have to change the channel for fear of dozing off behind the wheel.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Unfortunately, as seen from responses here, people don't do well at taking in new information and integrating it into their current knowledge base.

Taking in saber-metrics doesn't mean ignoring all traditional stat keeping. How someone gets on base still matters, hence why there are weighted stats like weighted OBP, as it weighs hits as more important than walks, etc....

So if you want to take into account situational hitting, you can get a good sense of it with seeing the difference between OBA and wOBA.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

One of the players I still think is underrated at the plate is Starlin Castro. When he first came into the league his K rate was well below 15%, which is almost unheard of today. But with pitching changing drastically, and partially him trying to hit more for power, the last 5-6 years his K rate has increased and his value has diminished a bit. He is the type of guy you want up with a runner on third and one out because he has a higher likelihood of putting the ball in play and getting that guy in, an ideal 6-8 hitter in the lineup.

 

[Raskolnikov]

So, I get why some people don't like saber stuff. In some areas it's needlessly obtuse. One of those areas I actually ran into myself. To cut to the chase, I wanted to know how much a run saved defensively actually mattered. So, for instance how you would compare a player who was a 100 wRC+ player(league average) but a great glove to someone who was an average glove but a better bat. Here's what i found....

So basically if you use wRC which is a stat that is meant to represent how much a player contributes run wise, an "average" player comes out to I believe it was 77 wRC per 600 PAs. I'm not interested in debating the methodology here but if you just look at a ball park estimate that feels about right if you break down what an average team scores in terms of runs. So what I did from there was found out how much wRC you could expect at 105 and 110 wRC+. Each step up equated to some where between 4 and 5 wRC which is pretty handy.

The up shot of all of this is basically that each run you save defensively basically equates to 1% better in terms of hitter. This is a useful thing to keep in mind IMO. For example, let's talk everyone's favorite hot button case.... 2012 Darwin Barney. He had a 75 wRC+ that year. I remember it being quite the point of contention because bWAR gave him a lofty value(4.6 to be precise). Fangraphs for what it's worth had him at 1.9 fWAR. So this was the exact type of situation i was looking at. If Barney were an average defender what would his bat need to be in order to be roughly equal?

Part of that depends on which metric you want to use. I'm not gonna dive into that debate here but the two we're looking at put his DRS at a whopping 28 and his UZR/150 at12.5. So, if we use my quick rule of thumb here an average defender would basically need to be a 103 wRC+ hitter based on his DRS numbers and an 88 wRC+ based on his UZR/150. Given what we know about Barney.... that feels pretty accurate actually. You're talking about some where between a below average and slightly above league average player depending on how generous you wanna be with his glove.

Just figured I'd share this because it's pretty useful when talking about contrasting style players. For example, if you're debating say Schwarber and Joc like we were prior to the season, Schwarber was like-1 to -2 depending on what metric you used defensively and for his career was a 112 wRC+ bat. Peterson in LF is some where between +5 and +7 and had a career 116 wRC+. So if you adjust them based on their defense Schwarber would go down to like 110 wRC+ and Joc would go up to like 121-123. Obviously Joc has played shitty this year but when viewed through that lens you can see why the cubs would prefer Joc

What about leadership, fan loyalty, and team continuity?

For the Cubs, I would think Schwarber>Peterson and at best Joc might be capable of a small metric blip. But then again he got favorable match-ups for years in a deep dodgers platoon and his power will decline with age, while Schwarbers will ripen.

 

[CSF77]

What about leadership, fan loyalty, and team continuity?

For the Cubs, I would think Schwarber>Peterson and at best Joc might be capable of a small metric blip. But then again he got favorable match-ups for years in a deep dodgers platoon and his power will decline with age, while Schwarbers will ripen.

So this is non sense. And you are making Schwarber into a banana except bananas get mucky and are only good for bread over ripened.

 

[CSF77]

One of the players I still think is underrated at the plate is Starlin Castro. When he first came into the league his K rate was well below 15%, which is almost unheard of today. But with pitching changing drastically, and partially him trying to hit more for power, the last 5-6 years his K rate has increased and his value has diminished a bit. He is the type of guy you want up with a runner on third and one out because he has a higher likelihood of putting the ball in play and getting that guy in, an ideal 6-8 hitter in the lineup.

Cubs could target him this off season. I'm not against it. The Cubs should have a few open spots and he is on pace for 3000 hits at age 40. Might as well get a few more hits as a Cub.