Quintana a Cub

[beckdawg]

Well alls we can do is hope it works in our favor. Best thing is I think Quintana is signed through 2020. Which we will have him for a few years.

Yeah that's really the perk. Think his remaining deal after this year is like $30 mil over 3 years assuming the cubs pick up his options. Since he compares favorably with lester, Lester is making $74 million over the next 3 years. Also we shouldn't sleep on the fact that Q is left handed. I mean you look at top 15 left handed starts in baseball right now and you're talking about a list of

Kershaw
Sale
Jason Vargas
Gio Gonzalez
Robbie Ray
Drew Pomeranz
Jordan Montgomery
Sean Manaea
Kyle Freeland
Ariel Miranda
Lester
Q
Jaime Garcia
Ty Blach
Martin Perez

Only a handful of those guys are under 30 and outside of a few guys like Sale and Kershaw you could argue Q is the most desirable on that list.

 

[CSF77]

They have Montgomery still listed at the starter for the start of the 2nd half. Q's last game was the 8th. He would be on 5 days rest and I'm wondering if they just start the 2nd half with him and push Montgomery back into his strength.

 

[beckdawg]

They have Montgomery still listed at the starter for the start of the 2nd half. Q's last game was the 8th. He would be on 5 days rest and I'm wondering if they just start the 2nd half with him and push Montgomery back into his strength.

I'm imagining that we'll see Montgomery back to the BP once Lackey returns. Presumably with Hendricks and Lackey both down you slot Q in I guess as your #3 maybe #2 depending on how you feel about Arrieta. Hendricks is your #4 and Lackey as #5. Butler likely is back to AAA. He was decent in his time here but i'd like to see him improve his control and work on his k rate a bit. Seems like he has those potential tools but not sure they are quite where they need to be just yet.

Interesting side note but I heard theo mention when talking to the sox about sale they said Bryant had to be in any deal. That's pretty nuts and sort of puts this trade in perspective in my eyes. Overall seems pretty smart to me that if this is what the Sox would do today to go for it. I'm honestly surprised the Astros didn't push any harder than they did. Supposedly the sox wanted Tucker and Martes. I'd argue maybe Eloy and Cease is a tad bit more but the difference isn't much. Martes is a top 25 pitcher and Tucker is a top 30 CF prospect.

also RE: Q's start http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...-week-ahead-jose-quintana-to-debut-on-sunday/

 

[chibears55]

Heard about the comparison earlier today..
Only difference was Lester pitching in "Big games"..
Quintana has yet to have that opportunity..hopefully he will this season

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[lurker]

OMG!!! We got FLEECED!!! Oh sorry wrong forum

 

[CSF77]

I'm imagining that we'll see Montgomery back to the BP once Lackey returns. Presumably with Hendricks and Lackey both down you slot Q in I guess as your #3 maybe #2 depending on how you feel about Arrieta. Hendricks is your #4 and Lackey as #5. Butler likely is back to AAA. He was decent in his time here but i'd like to see him improve his control and work on his k rate a bit. Seems like he has those potential tools but not sure they are quite where they need to be just yet.

Interesting side note but I heard theo mention when talking to the sox about sale they said Bryant had to be in any deal. That's pretty nuts and sort of puts this trade in perspective in my eyes. Overall seems pretty smart to me that if this is what the Sox would do today to go for it. I'm honestly surprised the Astros didn't push any harder than they did. Supposedly the sox wanted Tucker and Martes. I'd argue maybe Eloy and Cease is a tad bit more but the difference isn't much. Martes is a top 25 pitcher and Tucker is a top 30 CF prospect.

also RE: Q's start http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...-week-ahead-jose-quintana-to-debut-on-sunday/

Friday: Montgomery
Sat Arrieta
Sunday: Quinta
Monday: Lester
Tue: Lackey
Wed: Montgomery

Butler bumped off rotation. Not shocking with him Avg 5 innings per start. Hendricks will get 1 more start at AA then replace Montgomery.

Now the question is if they push Butler to LR or Iowa?

Pen right now: (last 30)

Duesing: .96 ERA
Strop: 1.59 ERA
Uehara: 2.45 ERA
Rondon: 3.27 ERA
Davis: 3.52 ERA
Grimm: 3.86 ERA
Edwards: 5.40 ERA

Butler: 3.70 ERA
Montgomery: 5.59 ERA

So honestly they are not going to demote Edwards. He is the best high leverage arm in MR. I believe the drop Leathersich and push Butler to MR to stabilize the tween innings. When Hendricks returns it imposes another issue of who of the regulars gets push off the roster. If Butler takes to MR you really don't want to mess with that. I'm thinking either Grimm or Rondon then.

 

[TL1961]

Well...

I'm not surprised that Q would cost that much. A quality #2 or 3 starter on a team friendly contract wasn't going to be traded for guys we didn't want.

Theo is the one that made me appreciate prospects and now I've had to see all the top press prospects go lol. The exciting farm system is gone.

The farm system was exciting when it had Baez, or Schwarber, or Carl Edwards, Happ, Contreras, even Candelario and Caratini.

What happened to all those guys?

 

[TL1961]

Most definitely . .

Not sure if they'll do it now or off season but either Russell or Baez need to be dealt..
Both deserve to just start and not have to look over their shoulder at the other. .

I think whether they make a deal or not will most definitely depend on their confidence in Lackey for rest of year.. 5th starter or not..

Still would love to see them get Fullmer from tigers

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Huge mistake. Huge.

Why trade one oft hem, when they play superb D and have offensive upside?

Trade Happ before you touch one of those two. If / when the Cubs decide to just play those two every day, they will have as good a middle infield as anyone.

Happ and Zobrist and LaStella are OK. But they should not be blocking wither of these two young, cost-controlled, well rounded players.

 

[beckdawg]

Why trade one oft hem, when they play superb D and have offensive upside?

Baez still hasn't proven he can hit MLB pitching at an average level. For all the crap Schwarber got for his badness this season, he's sitting at a career 106 wRC+ and 83 on the season. Baez is a career .247/.290/.407 hitter(83 wRC+). And it's not like that's much better this year. He's at 84 on the year. If he's ever going to get to the player he can be he's gotta play every day but I have a tough time justifying that when he's not hitting anywhere near as well as Happ. And sure Baez provides team defense but so does someone like Almora who's relegated to the bench often. Difference here is Almora is a career .277/.329/.415 hitter(96 wRC+) and unlike Baez he's only had 305 PAs meaning there may be quite a bit more there. We don't know. After 1000 PAs you have to ask yourself how long are you going to realistically give Baez to take a huge step forward offensively?

I'm not saying you have to trade Baez today or anything but there's going to come a day when the cubs have a need. And now that they've moved Eloy they lack guys with upside. Some of their pitching and Candelario are decent b tier pieces but to get something of decent value that probably means moving someone like Baez.

 

[chibears55]

Huge mistake. Huge.

Why trade one oft hem, when they play superb D and have offensive upside?

Trade Happ before you touch one of those two. If / when the Cubs decide to just play those two every day, they will have as good a middle infield as anyone.

Happ and Zobrist and LaStella are OK. But they should not be blocking wither of these two young, cost-controlled, well rounded players.

Happ I can see being a 280 hitter with 25 HR power with a steady glove..

Baez and Russell, may flash the leather but have shown to be to inconsistent with the bat..

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[TL1961]

Baez still hasn't proven he can hit MLB pitching at an average level. For all the crap Schwarber got for his badness this season, he's sitting at a career 106 wRC+ and 83 on the season. Baez is a career .247/.290/.407 hitter(83 wRC+). And it's not like that's much better this year. He's at 84 on the year. If he's ever going to get to the player he can be he's gotta play every day but I have a tough time justifying that when he's not hitting anywhere near as well as Happ. And sure Baez provides team defense but so does someone like Almora who's relegated to the bench often. Difference here is Almora is a career .277/.329/.415 hitter(96 wRC+) and unlike Baez he's only had 305 PAs meaning there may be quite a bit more there. We don't know. After 1000 PAs you have to ask yourself how long are you going to realistically give Baez to take a huge step forward offensively?

I'm not saying you have to trade Baez today or anything but there's going to come a day when the cubs have a need. And now that they've moved Eloy they lack guys with upside. Some of their pitching and Candelario are decent b tier pieces but to get something of decent value that probably means moving someone like Baez.

Baez is "not hitting anywhere near Happ", but Happ plays D nowhere near Baez.

I like Happ, but one must hit a TON if not a good defender.

 

[TL1961]

Happ I can see being a 280 hitter with 25 HR power with a steady glove..

Baez and Russell, may flash the leather but have shown to be to inconsistent with the bat..

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Play Baez every day and he helps the team, even with his maddening offensive holes. How can Cub fans - having finally seen first hand how big an impact great D can have - still long for "the old way"? Poor D and HRs dont win. We have hit a lot of HRs this year, and played poor D. Notice the impact on the W-L record?

Last year's great D played a very significant role in the great W-L record. But you chicks are still digging the long ball.

 

[brett05]

I wish your philosophical responses were as good as your baseball ones.

Yes, my comments are awful. You are the one.

 

[brett05]

Cease is pretty fine as a bullpen arm right now so I wouldn't worry to much about that. The worry is obviously whether or not he is a starter. I've personally always preferred De La Cruz to Cease because while cease has explosive stuff you're battling 2 issues with him. 1) he's on the smaller side. He's not tiny by any means and he generates good speed due to arm speed rather than over throwing so that helps a bit with injury risk but he's not the 6-5 or 6-6 220-230 lb monster that some starters are.

2) as you mentioned he throws a lot of pitches. While he certainly is a strike out artist the problem he has is that he doesn't go deep into games. That's one of the most underrated aspects in pitching in my eyes because middle relief bullpens can really kill teams. Teams that avoid that tend to do well. The 2016 cubs are a good example of this where they essentially were having 4 starters go 6 innings every night.

He's honestly a lot like Kopech in that regard. Kopech is a bit bigger but both could be home runs if they stay in a rotation and both could end up as bullpen pieces with ridiculous gas.

It's really up tot he White Sox staff. If they can get Cease to cut his walks by half he's a bullpen arm. If they can get him to pitch instead of throw which I believe they have with Kopech, than he has a shot at the back end of the rotation. Injury will always be a concern for Cease.

I'm not worried about the size of the man. Too many exceptions have shown otherwise. Pitchers can pitch no matter the stature they have.

 

[brett05]

I think there less then that depending on your standards for a true 1..

I just look at starters nowadays like this..

Their either a TOR type, borderline, or BOR type..

Lester a TOR
Quintana a TOR
Hendricks is borderline (see how he does when he returns)
Arrieta has fallen to borderline
Lackey is BOR










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I think if you ask the guys that get paid, they are going to come up with a number close to mine. Without looking up anything the TORs to get me to this range are:
Lester, Q
Cole
Thor
DeGroom
Max
Stras
Kershaw
greinke
Madbum
Kuechel
Sale
Stroman
Kluber
Archer

 

[brett05]

Exactly what that did for other teams looking to add SP..
Made the bar high

Also I heard that the Sox texted Epstein on Sunday during the disastrous first inning not realizing cubs started early to see if he wanted to work out a deal and asked for Jimenez and Cease right off the bat.

Epstein got back to him later that day and they agreed on a deal..




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Actually it was theo that reached out to Hahn a week earlier, Hahn was just getting back after making the rounds to other teams to gauge the right value at this time.

 

[chibears55]

Play Baez every day and he helps the team, even with his maddening offensive holes. How can Cub fans - having finally seen first hand how big an impact great D can have - still long for "the old way"? Poor D and HRs dont win. We have hit a lot of HRs this year, and played poor D. Notice the impact on the W-L record?

Last year's great D played a very significant role in the great W-L record. But you chicks are still digging the long ball.

I don't know where you get poor D out of Happ? His defense may not be flashy or even be considered above average but it's far from being poor, especially at 2B.

I love Baez and I'm probably the only one here who prefers him at SS over Russell..

But

I would prefer to keep Happ and his average defense and what looks to be a productive bat..
And
Look to move Russell or Baez who may have plus defense but are inconsistent with the bat.

You're still getting good defense up the middle but instead of having 2 inconsistent bats now, you only have 1

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[brett05]

Win loss record is irrelevant on a bad white sox team. ERA is perhaps concerning but his last 7 starts he's posted a 2.70 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.52 xFIP and a 27.1 K%. His ERA really comes down to 4 terrible starts. 2 in april(4th and 15th giving 6 and 5 ER) and 2 in may(24th and 30th giving up 8 and 7 ER). I know you can't entirely cherry pick data like that but if you remove those 4 starts he's given up 26 runs over 86.1 innings for a 2.71 ERA.

edit: brett or some of our other sox fans probably can provide more info than I can as to what was going on there but the first two in april seem like just normal early season adjustments. The 4th was his first start and the 15th was his third. They weren't that terrible really. The 2 starts in may were back to back @arizona which is never fun to pitch at and at home vs a pretty good boston team. Probably a case of him not having a good feel for his pitches for about a week. Two starts before and after were 8 innings of 1 hit ball vs seattle and 5.1 innings of 4 hit ball vs Tampa. Gave up 1 ER in each.

Q didn't get ST like others did and was rushed because of the WBC. That basically speaks of his slow start. I didn't hear anything about him having troubles in May, the truth is at times pitchers get rocked. It happens. However, you look at his numbers since Jun 1st and they are even better than his career norms. He's actually pitching better now. I was most impressed with his start in Colorado where he basically man handled a great hitting team in a great hitting park.

You all give him some offense and those that are hung up on wins will see that drastically increase.

As Hahn said yesterday, for a guy that has 65ish non decisions he never complained about the bullpen imploding or the fielders not making the plays. He was class all the way thru.

I am going to say this now at the risk of getting laughed at by the respectable people here on the Cubs board. He's Ryne Sandberg when it comes to leadership. Rizzo just got edged out. You'll here more about Rizzo, but Q is your leader. Quiet, behind the scenes, but the leader. It's not something the Cubs needed. Rizzo is a gem in my eyes. But he's going to be your guy. I hope he gets some Cy love for a couple of years he has left with you all. He's all around with age, durability, contract, stuff, and outside things a top 5 pitcher in the game.

 

[brett05]

Heard about the comparison earlier today..
Only difference was Lester pitching in "Big games"..
Quintana has yet to have that opportunity..hopefully he will this season

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He pitched in the WBC which against the American All Stars he dominated for his home country. That's pretty comparable to a playoff game. He got national attention and folks were speaking of Q nationally. I think he'd be fine if given the chance.

 

[CSF77]

I don't know where you get poor D out of Happ? His defense may not be flashy or even be considered above average but it's far from being poor, especially at 2B.

I love Baez and I'm probably the only one here who prefers him at SS over Russell..

But

I would prefer to keep Happ and his average defense and what looks to be a productive bat..
And
Look to move Russell or Baez who may have plus defense but are inconsistent with the bat.

You're still getting good defense up the middle but instead of having 2 inconsistent bats now, you only have 1

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I think they are done until the winter meetings. They traded both of their blue chips. If they were going to trade from the MLB roster they would have in that deal.

Next year you are looking at Lester, Q and Hendricks.

Honestly the guy I'm thinking they target is Alex Cobb, 30 next year with a career 3.63 FiP, add to it he came up with Joe in TB. He is a guy that they can slot in between Lester and Q with out busting the bank. Tseng leads as the inhouse guy. If they are looking at a 1-2 year deal Doug Fister or Marco Estrada. There are many MOR to BOR to pick.