Random cubs/baseball talks

[PickSix]

Can you two not read. They are not related by blood.

 

[TL1961]

Can you two not read. They are not related by blood.

Thank you!

Machado referred to Almora as his friend. Never a reference to cousins.

 

[chibears55]

Can you two not read. They are not related by blood.

https://twitter.com/MLBBruceLevine/status/998675581645590528?s=19


Read just fine, it says his Cousin..

But yea

I heard later that their so close that he just refers to him as a Cousin

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[anotheridiot]

I wouldn’t be so quick to assume he will sign an extension. A trade to a contender is happening. No way Baltimore gets nothing. And he will be #1 or 2 sought after FA. Why not test the market? I would be shocked if he signed an extension.

well, maybe the Darvish and Jake deal from last year will make players think twice. It all depends on the agent. Who is Manny's agent anyway? Cant speak for Machado either way since I am not a cousin or anything close to him, but its up to the players. Its one thing to WANT to play somewhere, and its another thing to send an agent out and find you the most money possible like Grienke.

Want should trump the dollars, and it seems like that is how the cubs are handling negotiations. I mean Machado is looking at two more deals in his career at least, what is the difference if he signs for 180 or 200, and what happens when Javy demands the same?

 

[fatbeard]

You have to think..
If Machado truly desires to play with Almora and wants to win a WS with him, or at least try..
Cubs are definately in that position now and for next couple years..

You'd think he'd be ok with signing / agreeing to an extension to make a trade happen...

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And none of this makes the Orioles more likely to deal Machado to the Cubs in the first place. They don't care one bit about his feelings; they care about getting the best return for him they can. All this talk about Machado and Almora being cousins/friends is just silly and irrelevant.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

...Machado is looking at two more deals in his career at least, what is the difference if he signs for 180 or 200, and what happens when Javy demands the same?

Javy is *slightly* better than Machado defensively, and has more natural power. Machado is far and away a better hitter for average and for OBP than Javy has ever shown he has the capacity to become. And, maybe most importantly, Machado is a steady performer, while, if you look in the dictionary for a definition of the word "streaky", you see, as an illustration, a picture of Javier Baez.

Overall, a guy who is an elite defender with streaky power won't command $200 million. Add being a .320 hitter with .400 OBP, then you're talking that fifth of a billion contract territory.

I have to wonder, though -- to what extent does a guy who had the Cubs logo cradled in the spires of the World Series trophy tattooed all over one side of his body believe he will be able to fit in on some other team? The ribbing he'd take in the showers would be fearsome, and that kind of Cubs display would be outright banned from the St. Louis locker room...

 

[TC in Mississippi]

well, maybe the Darvish and Jake deal from last year will make players think twice. It all depends on the agent. Who is Manny's agent anyway? Cant speak for Machado either way since I am not a cousin or anything close to him, but its up to the players. Its one thing to WANT to play somewhere, and its another thing to send an agent out and find you the most money possible like Grienke.

Want should trump the dollars, and it seems like that is how the cubs are handling negotiations. I mean Machado is looking at two more deals in his career at least, what is the difference if he signs for 180 or 200, and what happens when Javy demands the same?

Machado's agent is Scott Boras. He's going to get the money and I don't think a comparison to last year's class of older, below elite FA is comparable. The most likely scenario is that Machado gets a 12 year deal with a few opt outs somewhere between $225 mil-$275mil. Some think it will be higher than that, and it might be, but I'm not sure the market for him is huge which might keep the price reasonable. Even with the success of Andujar in NY you still have to consider the Yankees as players for him along with Philadelphia, St. Louis and the Cubs. Beyond that there might be a surprise team but Atlanta and LA both look to be targeting Harper. As far as Baez, he's never going to be in that upper echelon salary range both for the difference in talent and the fact that he won't be a FA until he's heading into his age 29 season, while Machado will be 26.

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/998996969291960321?s=19

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[beckdawg]

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/998996969291960321?s=19

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2 ways to view that. If you want to be negative you can say they can't do shit with RISP. If you want to be positive you look at the fact that A) they are getting into those situations at the best rate in baseball and B) if they get even a little bit better this offense is dominant.

 

[chibears55]

2 ways to view that. If you want to be negative you can say they can't do shit with RISP. If you want to be positive you look at the fact that A) they are getting into those situations at the best rate in baseball and B) if they get even a little bit better this offense is dominant.

I'd like to know how many of those AB came in close losses and then I'd look at it as wasted opportunities..

That the only time that stat really matters...

IMO

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[chibears55]

Machado's agent is Scott Boras. He's going to get the money and I don't think a comparison to last year's class of older, below elite FA is comparable. The most likely scenario is that Machado gets a 12 year deal with a few opt outs somewhere between $225 mil-$275mil. Some think it will be higher than that, and it might be, but I'm not sure the market for him is huge which might keep the price reasonable. Even with the success of Andujar in NY you still have to consider the Yankees as players for him along with Philadelphia, St. Louis and the Cubs. Beyond that there might be a surprise team but Atlanta and LA both look to be targeting Harper. As far as Baez, he's never going to be in that upper echelon salary range both for the difference in talent and the fact that he won't be a FA until he's heading into his age 29 season, while Machado will be 26.

I'd be very surprise if either Harper or Machado get the double digit years...

There only 5 current such deals active now..
Tulowitzki 2011 10 yrs
Pujols 2012 10 yrs
Cano 2014 10 yrs
Votto 2014 10 yrs
Stanton 2015 13 yrs

Only 2 Tulowitzki and Stanton got theirs in their prime..

I just think owners of today are ok with the amounts to a certain degree, but just dont want to be commited with the years anymore..

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[TC in Mississippi]

I'd be very surprise if either Harper or Machado get the double digit years...

There only 5 current such deals active now..
Tulowitzki 2011 10 yrs
Pujols 2012 10 yrs
Cano 2014 10 yrs
Votto 2014 10 yrs
Stanton 2015 13 yrs

Only 2 Tulowitzki and Stanton got theirs in their prime..

I just think owners of today are ok with the amounts to a certain degree, but just dont want to be commited with the years anymore..

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You're forgetting their youth. This is exactly the kind of player they're looking for in long term deals. What you're not going to see is deals over say a 6-7 year deal for guys at age 29 or 30. Plus the Harper and Machado deals are likely to be front loaded and there will be multiple opt outs.

 

[CSF77]

I'd like to know how many of those AB came in close losses and then I'd look at it as wasted opportunities..

That the only time that stat really matters...

IMO

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I see it as how they built the team based off of hitters that will go deeper into pitch counts to look for a pitch to drive.

For the most part they have not made it a goal to draft situational hitting prospects

 

[CSF77]

You're forgetting their youth. This is exactly the kind of player they're looking for in long term deals. What you're not going to see is deals over say a 6-7 year deal for guys at age 29 or 30. Plus the Harper and Machado deals are likely to be front loaded and there will be multiple opt outs.

Heyward got what he got and he didn’t have that value going in. 25 mil per would be concidered a joke right now.

I see Machado sitting on 28-30 per for 10 years. I don’t think he gets near Stanton level but he will be a tier short.

Harper will try to surpass. I’m not sure if a team can bankroll the demands.

 

[chibears55]

You're forgetting their youth. This is exactly the kind of player they're looking for in long term deals. What you're not going to see is deals over say a 6-7 year deal for guys at age 29 or 30. Plus the Harper and Machado deals are likely to be front loaded and there will be multiple opt outs.

I'm not forgetting their age, they both turn 27 next year..

I just dont think these owners want to be commited to high cost salaries to players into their 30s anymore..

I can see 7 or 8 yrs for them..
I can see 30+ per for them..
I can see mutual options

Heyward a prime example of making that mistake of only giving a player option and not team one...

We'll see... I guess they can get creative with early player options and later team option


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[CSF77]

I'd be very surprise if either Harper or Machado get the double digit years...

There only 5 current such deals active now..
Tulowitzki 2011 10 yrs
Pujols 2012 10 yrs
Cano 2014 10 yrs
Votto 2014 10 yrs
Stanton 2015 13 yrs

Only 2 Tulowitzki and Stanton got theirs in their prime..

I just think owners of today are ok with the amounts to a certain degree, but just dont want to be commited with the years anymore..

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I would be shocked if they don’t aim for 10 min. Players are starting to drop off at 35-37 YO and if Manny signed a 8 year deal he would fall at 34 and due to wear and tear his production may not justify 28 per for 4-5 years. But aiming at a 10 year deal he would be covered til 36. At that point he could get a pillow deal with a preferred local.

I really see him going for a pay day on this deal. Why would he work with Boras if that was not his goal. If he just wanted to go to a set location he would.

 

[chibears55]

I would be shocked if they don’t aim for 10 min. Players are starting to drop off at 35-37 YO and if Manny signed a 8 year deal he would fall at 34 and due to wear and tear his production may not justify 28 per for 4-5 years. But aiming at a 10 year deal he would be covered til 36. At that point he could get a pillow deal with a preferred local.

I really see him going for a pay day on this deal. Why would he work with Boras if that was not his goal. If he just wanted to go to a set location he would.

Team goes to 10 yrs, you'd think theyll cover themselves by making it a team or mutual option in year 8-10..
I can see a player option after 5 yrs for the player choice, he may prefer to take another crack at FA at age 31..

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[TC in Mississippi]

I'm not forgetting their age, they both turn 27 next year..

I just dont think these owners want to be commited to high cost salaries to players into their 30s anymore..

I can see 7 or 8 yrs for them..
I can see 30+ per for them..
I can see mutual options

Heyward a prime example of making that mistake of only giving a player option and not team one...

We'll see... I guess they can get creative with early player options and later team option


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I think you're likely to see maybe a 10 year deal for Machado structured something like this:

Year 1: $35 mil
Year 2: $35 mil
Year 3: $35 mil (player opt out)
Year 4: $35 mil
Year 5: $35 mil
Year 6: $35 mil (player opt out)
Year 7: $13.5 mil
Year 8: $13.5 mil
Year 9: $13.5 mil
Year 10: $13.5mil

Machado will basically be going into his prime next year and he already has 2 6 WAR seasons under his belt. So what you're hoping for as the signing team is those first 3 years he gives you 6-6.5 WAR. That's around 18 for the first 3 years and even valuing WAR at $8 mil per (which is conservative for a player of his caliber) the signing team is getting a bargain. Now the player can then opt out before his age 30 season and if he's performing at a high level someone still might offer something like 6/$180 and BOOM! He earns another $21 mil more from his new team and nobody is going to be crying on the old one. Same thing with the opt out after year 6. He'd still be owed $54 mil but maybe someone would give him 4/$60 mil and again he makes $6 more million. Obviously I'm making some guesses but I think this is the type of thing you'll see with both Machado and Harper. The front loading makes it easier to swallow on the back end if the player doesn't opt out while giving the player an incentive to opt out.

 

[beckdawg]

So fun with stats.... Almora is on a 650 PA pace of 6.7 fWAR and is hitting 110 wRC+ vs RHP(122 overall). When you add in his defense and leadership think he's now in that Contreras tier in terms of guys they wont move. I think in the next couple of years Rizzo will still be the heart/emotion of the team in terms of leadership but I think Almora will be the brain. If you just listen to the guy talk he just oozes leadership. I have no illusions that he'll actually be a 6 win player.... i mean it's possible but unlikely. However, if he's a 120 wRC+ with his defense in CF that's likely a top 5 CF in all of baseball. Last year chris taylor had a 126 wRC+ and wasn't as good defensively and was 4th among CF in fWAR.

 

[chibears55]

So fun with stats.... Almora is on a 650 PA pace of 6.7 fWAR and is hitting 110 wRC+ vs RHP(122 overall). When you add in his defense and leadership think he's now in that Contreras tier in terms of guys they wont move. I think in the next couple of years Rizzo will still be the heart/emotion of the team in terms of leadership but I think Almora will be the brain. If you just listen to the guy talk he just oozes leadership. I have no illusions that he'll actually be a 6 win player.... i mean it's possible but unlikely. However, if he's a 120 wRC+ with his defense in CF that's likely a top 5 CF in all of baseball. Last year chris taylor had a 126 wRC+ and wasn't as good defensively and was 4th among CF in fWAR.

More the reason why Almora should be playing more

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