Really Theriot...

[X]

I'm sure he is. I usually vote twice...once for all cubs. once for the guys that I think are deserving. I usually cancel myself out - lmao.

 

[Lefty]

struck a nerve, eh?

Look, my point...Theriot gets on base. He doesn't draw a lot of walks, but we should be happy, or damn near surprised to have a lead-off hitter lead the league in hits. We don't have an all-star at every position...and this year we're only gonna have an all-star b/c one is required...Theriot's lack of walks shouldn't even be thread worry...But...Lefty disagrees w/ me. Fair enough. Good win today.

Yes, he gets on base....at a clip only 10 percent better than his batting average.

Now, a .350 OBP is just fine for a leadoff hitter, I would want a little more from the top spot in terms of getting on base, but .350 is definitely acceptable. However, when that .315 AVG explains 90% of the player's OBP (as it does with Theriot) something is amiss.

Theriot has a .368 BABIP, meaning that roughly 37% of the balls he puts into play end up not being gobbled up by the defense for an out. Now I'm not sure how familiar you are with BABIP, but the general premise is that once a ball is put into play, a player has little to no control over whether it is turned into an out. Obviously, players can influence their BABIP numbers by hitting more line-drives as opposed to fly-balls, etc, but they do not have total control over it, meaning that a certain element of luck is involved in determining whether a ball put into play results in a hit.

Knowing that luck plays such a large role in BABIP totals, it is reasonable to expect that player's BABIPs will regress towards some average, as it would be difficult for a player to benefit from lucky breaks over the course of a season. The league-wide mean for BABIP is in the .290-.300 range, so we can see that Theriot is well above the mean and it would not be unreasonable to expect some type of regression in that area.

What does this mean on the field? It means that eventually (if Theriot continues his current percentages of groundballs, line drives and fly balls) those batted balls will start turning into outs more frequently as his BABIP drops, and thus his AVG will fall. And, knowing how much of his OBP is explained by his AVG, we can expect that his OBP will plummet proportionally to his dip in AVG, as he doesn't have the walk-rate to sustain an acceptable level of OBP.

So, when his BABIP eventually regresses (it will), his AVG will dip and his OBP will almost certainly fall out of the "acceptable" range, and this drop in production will be exacerbated by the fact that he is leading off and thus receiving a large portion of his team's plate appearances. Also, as I pointed out earlier, there are two players on the roster that have significantly higher OBPs than Theriot's now, and the runs gained by placing them at the top of the order (giving them more PAs) would certainly off-set the loss of runs expected by not having their potent power-hitting down in the order.

Understand?

 

[bossdrb]

Yes, he gets on base....at a clip only 10 percent better than his batting average.

Now, a .350 OBP is just fine for a leadoff hitter, I would want a little more from the top spot in terms of getting on base, but .350 is definitely acceptable. However, when that .315 AVG explains 90% of the player's OBP (as it does with Theriot) something is amiss.

Theriot has a .368 BABIP, meaning that roughly 37% of the balls he puts into play end up not being gobbled up by the defense for an out. Now I'm not sure how familiar you are with BABIP, but the general premise is that once a ball is put into play, a player has little to no control over whether it is turned into an out. Obviously, players can influence their BABIP numbers by hitting more line-drives as opposed to fly-balls, etc, but they do not have total control over it, meaning that a certain element of luck is involved in determining whether a ball put into play results in a hit.

Knowing that luck plays such a large role in BABIP totals, it is reasonable to expect that player's BABIPs will regress towards some average, as it would be difficult for a player to benefit from lucky breaks over the course of a season. The league-wide mean for BABIP is in the .290-.300 range, so we can see that Theriot is well above the mean and it would not be unreasonable to expect some type of regression in that area.

What does this mean on the field? It means that eventually (if Theriot continues his current percentages of groundballs, line drives and fly balls) those batted balls will start turning into outs more frequently as his BABIP drops, and thus his AVG will fall. And, knowing how much of his OBP is explained by his AVG, we can expect that his OBP will plummet proportionally to his dip in AVG, as he doesn't have the walk-rate to sustain an acceptable level of OBP.

So, when his BABIP eventually regresses (it will), his AVG will dip and his OBP will almost certainly fall out of the "acceptable" range, and this drop in production will be exacerbated by the fact that he is leading off and thus receiving a large portion of his team's plate appearances. Also, as I pointed out earlier, there are two players on the roster that have significantly higher OBPs than Theriot's now, and the runs gained by placing them at the top of the order (giving them more PAs) would certainly off-set the loss of runs expected by not having their potent power-hitting down in the order.

Understand?

First sentence: he gets on base.

Period.

 

[Lefty]

First sentence: he gets on base.

Period.

Your ignorance and stupidity know no bounds, I see.

 

[yoshiki89]

So, when his BABIP eventually regresses (it will), his AVG will dip and his OBP will almost certainly fall out of the "acceptable" range, and this drop in production will be exacerbated by the fact that he is leading off and thus receiving a large portion of his team's plate appearances.

So, this is the key statement...given his *current* handling of groundballs, etc the expectation is that his BABIP will regress, and that's that.

Do you think if there is a measurable improvement over a short period of time, that the expectation would change accordingly?

 

[FirstTimer]

Your ignorance and stupidity know no bounds, I see.

I see the point of your long ass post but Theriot is a career .356 OBP guy.

On top of that his career average is .291 and his career BABIP is .323.

Even last year when Theriot hit only .284 his BABIP was .323 and his OBP was .343.

Theriot's OBP at the leadoff spot:

2005: .111
2006: N/A
2007: .342
2008: .419
2009: .354
2010: .355

Career: .355

Even if he regresses to his career averages across the board Theriot would make a more than respectable leadoff man. I find it a tad odd you site Soto and Fukudome as two other guys who should go at the top when Fukudome has been known for regressing..and can't hit lefties. Plus Soto hasn't shown his ability to be consistant either....

If having Fukudome's higher OBP at the top of the order worth what you give up in the consistancy of having the same guy at the top of the order day in and day out?

IMO on most any other team Theriot would be a tremendous #2 hitter especially with his ability to hit the ball the other way..but on the Cubs he has to be the leadoff guy...and is respectable at it.

 

[bossdrb]

Your ignorance and stupidity know no bounds, I see.

It's called an opinion dumbass. Can you ever respect anyones point without being a complete idiot and blowing anything they have to say off?

 

[yoshiki89]

I can feel the love...thought I was on a Mets board for a second! :crazydance:

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

lol muts

 

[Lefty]

It's called an opinion dumbass. Can you ever respect anyones point without being a complete idiot and blowing anything they have to say off?

I can't help it if your opinion is stupid and ignorant, and really that's not my problem, it's yours.

 

[bossdrb]

I can't help it if your opinion is stupid and ignorant, and really that's not my problem, it's yours.

Why in the **** would I have a problem with my opinion? Dude, just stop. Neither of us are gonna win.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

stop this pissing match

cuz i win in that category anyway

lol jk

 

[zack54attack]

I don't know, maybe they could start by looking at the two guys on their team with OBP's over .400 in Soto and Fukudome. Yeah you MIGHT be sacrificing their power hitting at the top of the lineup, but the value gained by having high-OBP guys like that at the top of the order everyday would certainly outweigh the fewer runs scored on the extra base hits they would get down in the lineup. Honestly, batting a guy at the top of the order who's main source of his .340 OBP is a .320 AVG with a ..360+ BABIP is wishful thinking at best and stupid at worst.

We have tried the Soriano expirment before. Isn't that why Theriot is leading off in the first place? Sure he gets hot and can carry the team, but when he's not hot he can drown the team.

Byrd would be a good candidate for the job, looking at his numbers.

 

[Lefty]

We have tried the Soriano expirment before. Isn't that why Theriot is leading off in the first place? Sure he gets hot and can carry the team, but when he's not hot he can drown the team.

Byrd would be a good candidate for the job, looking at his numbers.

I'm just curious, where did I mention or reference Alfonso Soriano in any way in the post that you quoted?

 

[zack54attack]

I'm just curious, where did I mention or reference Alfonso Soriano in any way in the post that you quoted?

lol my fault. Read it fast, saw the SO and O in soto and read Soriano lol..

 

[zack54attack]

BTW, why is the argument on Theriot?

There are players on this team not playing to potential that are more important if Theriot isn't "playing good". The Cubs can hit. We all see that, but with Ramirez and Lee not playing to their capabilities, we are going to struggle.

 

[zack54attack]

ahhh Lefty and Dustin.

Our first CCS E-rivalry.

 

[X]

BTW, why is the argument on Theriot?

There are players on this team not playing to potential that are more important if Theriot isn't "playing good". The Cubs can hit. We all see that, but with Ramirez and Lee not playing to their capabilities, we are going to struggle.

Shew...don't go there big dog...trust me...