Rebuild or Retool or Neither?

[HSBOB]

Unprecedented I think other than a more extreme scenario in the Marlins and the year they sold off their team after winning the world series.

I follow the Black Hawk's prospects as closely as some in this thread follow the Cubs' but I'm not up on what the Cub's system has to offer and I'm sure the average fan isn't up on it either. I think the average fan(when they return) just look at their team's perception as a competitor or not and I wonder if the Cubs are playin' with fire here a bit.
I realize the Wrigley faithful will still be a reliable fan base attendance-wise once things return to normal but then again an on-field regression after being the most competitive Cubs team since the early 20th century will certainly be a shock to the system.
I'm an old Cubs fan who lived through the dark days of last place finishes only occasionally interrupted by gut wrenching chokes,the team scarred my childhood in 69 and ruined my young adulthood in 84........I sometimes wonder if today's fans realize how historically rare the last six successful years have been. When the Cubs beat the Braves in the NLDS back in 03,it was the first modern day PO series the team ever won and didn't win another until the current group reached the 15 NLCS by beating the Cards.
The team went on to do the UNTHINKABLE the following year and have been generally competitive since missing the postseason only once and winning their division last year.
Does the cost cutting/rebuilding that will result in some popular players that won a F'n WS leaving go over well? Does the WS victory ensure sell-outs into perpetuity with a loyal fan base or does cost cutting go over like a lead balloon for ownership that has raked in BIG $$$ ?

 

[Steve_A]

Bryant was not a Cub on opening day. 20/20 doesn't apply to pre-events.
Soler busted as a Cub. Russell busted as a Cub. It happens. You can go around saying ya 2015 was locked in because it was after the fact. Opening day it was hype a new manager and a investment into Lester.

Alozay I am penciling him in until he busts. If he busts then adjust as needed. I listed him as a #4. It is not like I was banking on him. They started Mills so this is not a huge reach. But you have to see what you have and Jed is going to start him as of right now. So yes you have to pencil him in with the current situation. If we were talking Marquez then no. He was not a part of the team rotation and saw 1/3 of a inning. Could he? Unlikely but he could dominate hitters in S/T and force it. For sure it could happen with his talent.

Thor

2017: On April 30, Syndergaard left the game after experiencing tightness in his right biceps. The next day, on May 1, he was placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a torn lat muscle in his right arm.[55][56] He was transferred to the 60-day disabled list on May 7.[57]

2018: He was placed on the disabled list at the end of May and was activated on July 12, after missing the whole month of June with a strained ligament in his right index finger. On July 22, he was again placed on the disabled list after contracting hand, foot and mouth disease,[62

2020[edit]
On March 24, 2020, Syndergaard was diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery on March 26, putting him out for the entire 2020 season.[

IDK if I would call him fragile. TJ is so common I'm more concerned of pitchers who never got it because it is pending.

If it was the same thing over and over then I would pull up the shades on no. But Lat, Index finger then UCL. It happens but if it was shoulder then I would run away. That is the one that wrecks a career.

But this is the world of what if.

What I believe happens: They buy short term to flip. They will flip Davies, Baez, Bryant and Rizzo. Next year he signs filler 1 year deals to flip like he did with Scott Feldman and continues to acquire prospects. I don't see him going into a season to tank. He will field a team that could win the division and if they are not in it he sells if he is in it he will add cheap players if any. I don't see a huge investment unless it has control attached that he can either resell or take forward with.

2021: I see Phiggy resigned to back up Contreras. They need a starting LF. They need a 5th starter. I doubt that he goes with 3 guys.

If it was me I would sign Profar for LF and Archer for the rotation. Archer would be a 1 year flip. Profar could end up a multi year because he can man 3B after Bryant is traded. So that one could be a problem solver.

2022: That is where they will create a vacuum in cap space. Around 110 mil. Will they invest? I feel this would fall under Tom Ricketts wanting to contend or create profit. That is the driver.

If he wants to contend then Lindor should be the main target. They should have a need for a SP. Thor has the most upside. Grey might be a good target also if they are looking at a mid rotation type.

If they are looking to flip again. SS I would move Nico there. Bote to 2B Profar to 3B. Jon Grey depends if he is in the situation Archer is in now. 1 year prove it deal and flip to a contender. Matz would be on the market. Daniel Norris. So there are a few mid-back end types that wouldn't bust the bank and could be used as chips.

Russel and Soler : Bust or not does not matter. Russel for who he was wasn’t a complete bust either. The perception of having a lot of talent was the hope that led to the build up. We can’t see that many talent in the horizon in two years.

Alozay :You are missing my point. I’m not talking about what he could be. I’m talking about his perception. He’s on our radar because he’s one of the top farm hands we have but he might not be as good as we think considering scouting reports.

Thor : I agree that TJ is so common that I’d trust someone who had it as well but do you want a risky velocity guy as an ace? He’s no Degrom / Kershaw / Verlander dude. He isn’t even Darvish from a past record perspective.

Archer : I think other teams will out bid this cheap team but agree with the concept that we should sign him to flip him. ( Might not get much considering his recent track record but might be worth a try )

Profar : Why should the team spend anything now when they should tank for high draft picks? Leave Bote out there to tank. Half ossing anything shouldn’t be the play when they’ve dealt away their best player from last year.

Lindor : The same thing as Profar but why in the world do you think this cheap team will start spending so early and banking on one to two players to turn the team around?

Dude I don’t understand you at all this time.

 

[knoxville7]

Russel and Soler : Bust or not does not matter. Russel for who he was wasn’t a complete bust either. The perception of having a lot of talent was the hope that led to the build up. We can’t see that many talent in the horizon in two years.

Alozay :You are missing my point. I’m not talking about what he could be. I’m talking about his perception. He’s on our radar because he’s one of the top farm hands we have but he might not be as good as we think considering scouting reports.

Thor : I agree that TJ is so common that I’d trust someone who had it as well but do you want a risky velocity guy as an ace? He’s no Degrom / Kershaw / Verlander dude. He isn’t even Darvish from a past record perspective.

Archer : I think other teams will out bid this cheap team but agree with the concept that we should sign him to flip him. ( Might not get much considering his recent track record but might be worth a try )

Profar : Why should the team spend anything now when they should tank for high draft picks? Leave Bote out there to tank. Half ossing anything shouldn’t be the play when they’ve dealt away their best player from last year.

Lindor : The same thing as Profar but why in the world do you think this cheap team will start spending so early and banking on one to two players to turn the team around?

Dude I don’t understand you at all this time.

hardly anyone does. Don’t feel bad

 

[CSF77]

Russel and Soler : Bust or not does not matter. Russel for who he was wasn’t a complete bust either. The perception of having a lot of talent was the hope that led to the build up. We can’t see that many talent in the horizon in two years.

Alozay :You are missing my point. I’m not talking about what he could be. I’m talking about his perception. He’s on our radar because he’s one of the top farm hands we have but he might not be as good as we think considering scouting reports.

Thor : I agree that TJ is so common that I’d trust someone who had it as well but do you want a risky velocity guy as an ace? He’s no Degrom / Kershaw / Verlander dude. He isn’t even Darvish from a past record perspective.

Archer : I think other teams will out bid this cheap team but agree with the concept that we should sign him to flip him. ( Might not get much considering his recent track record but might be worth a try )

Profar : Why should the team spend anything now when they should tank for high draft picks? Leave Bote out there to tank. Half ossing anything shouldn’t be the play when they’ve dealt away their best player from last year.

Lindor : The same thing as Profar but why in the world do you think this cheap team will start spending so early and banking on one to two players to turn the team around?

Dude I don’t understand you at all this time.

Russell for a top 10 prospect was a bust. He was hand in hand with Baez and Bryant. To end up being fired from a Japan team. That is beyond bust that is nuke. Soler was a injury concern. When healthy he hit.

So they did draft talent. Russell was a trade but who is really micromanaging that part.

All I said with Alozay is you have to let him prove that he is a bust. Right now we do not know what he is. At worst case he sucks and they push to AAA or convert to a pen arm. But with what he has shown last year with his better breaking stuff he is worth the opertunity. I wouldn't block him. Now blocking Rae or Miller. Ya go after Archer on a 1 year.

Thor would have a full year and in F/A. I'm not locked into this at all. All I said was best arm on the market. I agree unlikely but it has to be mentioned as a possibility. I see lower arms upped myself vs a TOR investment.

Profar holds flexibility. Can cover SS, 2B, 3B and LF. The team is going to get swiss cheesed very soon and investments like this create stability.

Lindor is a what if. What if the goal was dropping payroll and resetting tax to attack F/A in 2022. Lindor would be the top f/a and for sure you target that if you are doing this. They would have 110M to invest and it makes sense.

The question comes to if Tom decides his hard cap is low now. Like 140M. Then Jed becomes limited to finding low value players that he feels need a change of scenery to max out return value. But this is relative. Say he gets a 1 WAR SS. he puts up 3 WAR. that is a 2 WAR gain for a 1 WAR payment. But it still is not the WAR Lindor will get. 5-7 WAR. so yes great bargain but not the way to build a champ.

Getting to Bote. He is a replacement player. That is it. 1 WAR player. Sure if you are redoing 2012 that works.

 

[Steve_A]

@CSF77

Russell :He was useful for two years. That’s all the team needed. He wasn’t a complete bust and he got fired from a Korean team where the likes of Jung-ho Kang came from. You are wrong on both points here.

Also talking about perspective here so you’re missing the main point.

Alzolay : I agree with using him but not enough to hype right now IMO.

Thor : Best available arm should not be an add unless you have an unlimited budget or you’re close enough to contend.

Profar : Why is stability a choice when the team is choosing to tank for higher draft picks. I don’t mind them throwing darts around the high end bounce back candidates to flip but no one needing any sort of mid to long term commitment.

Building a champ : You are missing my point. Lindor is great but the Dodger’s won with more than a couple stars. I don’t see enough in two years to warrant a Lindor acquisition.

Bote : When you tank you tank like the Marlins. Trade Rizzo / Baez / Bryant / Contreras / Hendricks and start fresh.

 

[Steve_A]

hardly anyone does. Don’t feel bad

He does have legit points at times but not this time.

 

[CSF77]

@CSF77

Russell :He was useful for two years. That’s all the team needed. He wasn’t a complete bust and he got fired from a Korean team where the likes of Jung-ho Kang came from. You are wrong on both points here.

Also talking about perspective here so you’re missing the main point.

Alzolay : I agree with using him but not enough to hype right now IMO.

Thor : Best available arm should not be an add unless you have an unlimited budget or you’re close enough to contend.

Profar : Why is stability a choice when the team is choosing to tank for higher draft picks. I don’t mind them throwing darts around the high end bounce back candidates to flip but no one needing any sort of mid to long term commitment.

Building a champ : You are missing my point. Lindor is great but the Dodger’s won with more than a couple stars. I don’t see enough in two years to warrant a Lindor acquisition.

Bote : When you tank you tank like the Marlins. Trade Rizzo / Baez / Bryant / Contreras / Hendricks and start fresh.

I will give the short version:

They are not going to strait up tank.

They will use budget to sign F/A's that they can flip for prospects.

This year they need 1 SP and a LF. In house they have Bote and Bryant. They can do nothing and start Bryant in LF then trade him.

SP: I would sign Archer then flip him.

Next year. This is the big question and we all all tossing rocks to try to find a answer. They have choices. They will be around 100M. They will need a LF (If Davis is delayed) SS (Have Nico) If Nico moves over then it opens up 2B. Now all of the talent is at SS. 2B and 3B are pretty dry that year. They could go inhouse here or trade for a MLB ready type.

Now I am not getting into Profar. You see adding him now solves this little problem. The market sucks and there is better talent on the market now. But sure Jed could trade Baez and get a lesser MI to work with Nico. Or they could add Strumf or another AAAA type.

Alozay I'm not banking on to be a impact. I see him in the same light as most. Could be a Arretta or Hendricks or not. The Cubs really have not had a minor league SP sense them outside of Mills.

Lindor: I agree. After they sold Darvish it would be stupid to make a signing like that. They are in flip mode.

 

[Leomaz]

I thought when the cub won the World Series the only question with their team was how many championships they were gonna win in the next 5 years

 

[CSF77]

I thought when the cub won the World Series the only question with their team was how many championships they were gonna win in the next 5 years

Theo fell in love with his draft picks and traded the wrong guys away.

The core problem was their refusal to draft high picks and international picks into pitching. Thus every move was based off filling this need externally.

They ran the tank empty. And when they did invest into fringe pitching they couldn't develop them.

So the problem is in the method. When you do the same thing over and over and expect a different result is by definition insane. Promoting Jed is the same. Don't expect a new approach unless he hires a GM that is not a yes man.

 

[Steve_A]

@CSF77

Tank : Why not tank for high draft picks at this point?

Flip : Landscape has changed a bit since Theo traded for Chapman but would it be that easy though?

Need : Why do they need anything? Shouldn’t they tank is my point.

Archer : I do agree to a certain degree but only at the right price.

Next Year : I agree with the general thought here but I again would like to say Davis and Nico aren’t enough to build around. It’s like saying at best Dexter Fowler and at best Tommy La Stella is enough to build a team around. You’ll need a bit more than this to build a team.

Profar : I guess he’s young enough to be flip-able again but do we really need him? Goes back to my point of shouldn’t we go all the way when tanking?

Alozay : I’m not saying he can’t pan out either. It’s just that he’s too uncertain at this point to build a foundation around.

Lindor : Please don’t get me wrong that I don’t think he could be a building block. I just thought it wasn’t the right timing dude.

 

[CSF77]

@CSF77

Tank : Why not tank for high draft picks at this point?

Flip : Landscape has changed a bit since Theo traded for Chapman but would it be that easy though?

Need : Why do they need anything? Shouldn’t they tank is my point.

Archer : I do agree to a certain degree but only at the right price.

Next Year : I agree with the general thought here but I again would like to say Davis and Nico aren’t enough to build around. It’s like saying at best Dexter Fowler and at best Tommy La Stella is enough to build a team around. You’ll need a bit more than this to build a team.

Profar : I guess he’s young enough to be flip-able again but do we really need him? Goes back to my point of shouldn’t we go all the way when tanking?

Alozay : I’m not saying he can’t pan out either. It’s just that he’s too uncertain at this point to build a foundation around.

Lindor : Please don’t get me wrong that I don’t think he could be a building block. I just thought it wasn’t the right timing dude.

Ticket holders are not going to pay top end for a bottom end product. Tom got away with it last time. This time no.

To be real what is asked is toss away years so they can farm up a few picks and force ticket holder paying top tier costs for a shit ball team.

So it is not realistic to expect a total tank. Not even the A's tank like this. The Rays can tank because they have historic crappy resources,. The Cubs on the other hand have resources in the top 5 in Baseball.

At the end of the day you are asking to push out a shit product while Tom bankrolls for 5 years.

 

[gopher72]

I follow the Black Hawk's prospects as closely as some in this thread follow the Cubs' but I'm not up on what the Cub's system has to offer and I'm sure the average fan isn't up on it either. I think the average fan(when they return) just look at their team's perception as a competitor or not and I wonder if the Cubs are playin' with fire here a bit.
I realize the Wrigley faithful will still be a reliable fan base attendance-wise once things return to normal but then again an on-field regression after being the most competitive Cubs team since the early 20th century will certainly be a shock to the system.
I'm an old Cubs fan who lived through the dark days of last place finishes only occasionally interrupted by gut wrenching chokes,the team scarred my childhood in 69 and ruined my young adulthood in 84........I sometimes wonder if today's fans realize how historically rare the last six successful years have been. When the Cubs beat the Braves in the NLDS back in 03,it was the first modern day PO series the team ever won and didn't win another until the current group reached the 15 NLCS by beating the Cards.
The team went on to do the UNTHINKABLE the following year and have been generally competitive since missing the postseason only once and winning their division last year.
Does the cost cutting/rebuilding that will result in some popular players that won a F'n WS leaving go over well? Does the WS victory ensure sell-outs into perpetuity with a loyal fan base or does cost cutting go over like a lead balloon for ownership that has raked in BIG $$$ ?

Im right there with u CS peaks and valley strike and gutters mostly gutters for old cub fans and same for hawks to until that run of cups they call dynasty seems like long ago but i will be happy to have them throw the dirt on my box knowing i lived through something my old man never saw a cubs championship so i have put that desire to rest and now just dream of $1.25 bleacher seats on a sunny Sunday in the friendly confines with the redbirds in town and fergie on the hill...

 

[Diehardfan]

Ticket holders are not going to pay top end for a bottom end product. Tom got away with it last time. This time no.

To be real what is asked is toss away years so they can farm up a few picks and force ticket holder paying top tier costs for a shit ball team.

So it is not realistic to expect a total tank. Not even the A's tank like this. The Rays can tank because they have historic crappy resources,. The Cubs on the other hand have resources in the top 5 in Baseball.

At the end of the day you are asking to push out a shit product while Tom bankrolls for 5 years.

Ticket holders? What tickets are they holding? It won't be for games at Wrigley. From all the estimates I'm reading.....any sense of normality won't be happening until the end of 2021 at the earliest.

2021 could just actually be the best time to bottom out.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Ticket holders? What tickets are they holding? It won't be for games at Wrigley. From all the estimates I'm reading.....any sense of normality won't be happening until the end of 2021 at the earliest.

2020 could just actually be the best time to bottom out.

Except this is 2021.

 

[THERIOT2]

Read your reply and made me wonder if Jed's 5 years is enough for a rebuild.
I think most fans would agree that this team

1 Can 't develop pitching at all.
(Kinda what makes the Darvish trade sting more than anything else)

2 Don't have great position prospects like they once did.

So I think it might take a bit longer to rebuild this team up.
What probably will make the tanking even harder is the fact that the Pirates and Reds also trying to tank now as well.

Any who thanks for the reply and looking forward to seeing how others feel about the topic as well.

It's a rebuild and Darvish is 34 and his injury history has to be factored in. Would I like a better pkg. for him ? You bet. Lets move them out and get what we can. Yikes, that would make us Pittsburgh West.

 

[CSF77]

Ticket holders? What tickets are they holding? It won't be for games at Wrigley. From all the estimates I'm reading.....any sense of normality won't be happening until the end of 2021 at the earliest.

2020 could just actually be the best time to bottom out.

Season ticket holders have had Tom's influence.

There is nothing said. Fans or semi fans or no fans.

So there is no conclusion to be drawn from incomplete data.

I could guess limited seating but that is a ass pull as is most info unless it is from the office of MLB.

 

[CSF77]

It's a rebuild and Darvish is 34 and his injury history has to be factored in. Would I like a better pkg. for him ? You bet. Lets move them out and get what we can. Yikes, that would make us Pittsburgh West.

It might end up a good deal when all said and done but it came at heavy risk and a commitment to slashing payroll.

I would have respected it if it was they had 4 SP and Marquez was ready and Jed figured it was a good time to cash in. I would have respected it and most likely not butt hurt of the return because there was not a driving need for pitching.

But this...WTF. sell 1 of 2 qualified starters. With a back filler as a 3. Sure they replaced a 1 with a 4.

Now they have a ,2. A 4. And a bunch of headaches.

Jed better add a qualified (didn't say quality because that is like hail marry at this point).

 

[Steve_A]

It's a rebuild and Darvish is 34 and his injury history has to be factored in. Would I like a better pkg. for him ? You bet. Lets move them out and get what we can. Yikes, that would make us Pittsburgh West.

I know that he wasn't part of the rebuild but I wanted one more year of going in with the guys left at the title.
I said in the other thread as well but he was a solid human being that thanked the ball club and the Chicago writers for giving him a break after he wasn't a 100% after surgery.
Also broke out in tears that he couldn't end a cub.
That's all I am saying about this.

 

[CSF77]

Ya it would have been nice to have another go at this but this is all business and they would rather refill vs compete.

 

[Steve_A]

Ya it would have been nice to have another go at this but this is all business and they would rather refill vs compete.

I agree but wonder why don't they don't sell off the whole team.
It looks like Shelby Miller is a swap candidate so why not Zach Davies.
Why not Rizzo or anyone with little control?
Seems like we can't even have Lester back at this point so why keep any of the former Champs around?