Remember when....

[FirstTimer]

Remember when JL3 hit that shot over LeBron! WE DON'T NEED ROSE. BENCH MOB!

I really hope this playoff series makes Bulls fans realize how fucking stupid they sounded all year.

 

[nwfisch]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOmZ66lIzJA]Remember when - Alan Jackson - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Rush]

Remember when JL3 hit that shot over LeBron! WE DON'T NEED ROSE. BENCH MOB!

I really hope this playoff series makes Bulls fans realize how fucking stupid they sounded all year.

I see no issue with celebrating after that win.

Claiming we already won the east is Special person but, being happy about that win there is nothing wrong with it.

 

[FirstTimer]

I see no issue with celebrating after that win.

Claiming we already won the east is Special person but, being happy about that win there is nothing wrong with it.

Not the issue.

Dumb fans could never see the big picture.

 

[Rush]

Even if we went undefeated, didn't lose a game, and won the championship.

A majority of our fan base would be full of morons. Every fan base is plagued by retards.

 

[FirstTimer]

But at least they would be correct about the "Bench Mob" then.


My issue is that too many Bulls fans/media people treat NBA games like NFL games.

They make these huge assumptions based on whatever happened last week. This might have some merit in the NFL, where the season only has 16 games and each one is very important...but the NBA season is more like a baseball season. Its stupid to make knee-jerk assumptions. Joakim Noah has been labeled about 20 different things in his career, all based on his last game.

I also love how NBA coaches seemingly have as much impact as NFL coaches. Every game the Bulls lose is because "Thibodeaux was outcoached". People can't even describe what the opposing coach did to win the game, but they know that if Thibodeaux had had a timeout to call at the end of the game, everything would be different. Its the NBA. The best players win. Sometimes the shots fall for you, sometimes they don't. To win, you need good players.

Pretty much this.

That's why you have people like Rami posting Boris Diaw's numbers 10 games into a season and comparing him to LeBron James. Or last year people were expecting Noah to go 15-15 based on two weeks of play or Noah has a 20pt game and all of a sudden he can "develop into an elite offensive post player".

Fans around here generally miss the bigger picture and are too busy focusing on JLIII hitting one fadeaway jumper over Lebron.

 

[Rush]

What is a sufficient sample size to base things off of in the NBA then?

 

[FirstTimer]

What is a sufficient sample size to base things off of in the NBA then?

Basketball is one of those "matchup" sports. I believe Rory has referenced the Suns teams before back when they'd lose to the Spurs in the playoffs. If you looked at the sample size of the entire season you'd think the Suns win easy and go to the Finals. The Spurs were a bad matchup though.

Another issue is playoff basketball is drastically different. One issue with this Bulls team is that in the regular season having a deep bench can be a great advantage with less rest between games deeper teams can put together a few more wins. Playoff time helps mute that with extended rest, top line player start playing more minutes so the secondary/bench matchups matter less etc.

As much as it is about sample size, it's about matchups, understanding the game, and being able to evaluate players. It's not simply about saying "The Bulls have played 25 games that's fair enough to assume they are the best team in the NBA"...They could be, but I prefer to look at things through the larger spectrum of matchups and possibly playoff implications.

 

[Scoot26]

Matchups is highly important. There's a reason why the 06-07 Warriors beat the Mavericks, who had a 67-15 record that year, in the first round. The Warriors matched up well with them. Similarly, the Grizzlies matched up well with the Spurs last year and thus beat them in the first round as well.

 

[FirstTimer]

Basketball is one of those "matchup" sports. I believe Rory has referenced the Suns teams before back when they'd lose to the Spurs in the playoffs. If you looked at the sample size of the entire season you'd think the Suns win easy and go to the Finals. The Spurs were a bad matchup though.

Another issue is playoff basketball is drastically different. One issue with this Bulls team is that in the regular season having a deep bench can be a great advantage with less rest between games deeper teams can put together a few more wins. Playoff time helps mute that with extended rest, top line player start playing more minutes so the secondary/bench matchups matter less etc.

As much as it is about sample size, it's about matchups, understanding the game, and being able to evaluate players. It's not simply about saying "The Bulls have played 25 games that's fair enough to assume they are the best team in the NBA"...They could be, but I prefer to look at things through the larger spectrum of matchups and possibly playoff implications.

Matchups is highly important. There's a reason why the 06-07 Warriors beat the Mavericks, who had a 67-15 record that year, in the first round. The Warriors matched up well with them. Similarly, the Grizzlies matched up well with the Spurs last year and thus beat them in the first round as well.

To expand/agree with this. It's similar to the Cubs discussion that was going on last week. Would you rather have the '03 or '08 Cubs. Sure the '08 Cubs won more, had more "pop" etc but the '03 version was better built for the playoffs. Especially the pitching staffs, and the offenses ability to manufacture runs. Those are incredibly important come playoff time. The '03 Cubs matched up with any team because of their top of the line top of the rotation starting staff that season, and you had a veteran team built with some very good defense and more varied offensive production. On it's face most would say because of the 162 game sample size you'd want 2008's team, but when breaking it down for the playoffs, and looking at matchups and strengths and weaknesses you'd have to maybe slide to that 2003 team. Sometimes even large sample sizes can be misleading given the way NBA and MLB seasons are constructed and played out.

I think simply looking at records is lazy analysis.

 

[JosMin]

To expand/agree with this. It's similar to the Cubs discussion that was going on last week. Would you rather have the '03 or '08 Cubs. Sure the '08 Cubs won more, had more "pop" etc but the '03 version was better built for the playoffs. Especially the pitching staffs, and the offenses ability to manufacture runs. Those are incredibly important come playoff time. The '03 Cubs matched up with any team because of their top of the line top of the rotation starting staff that season, and you had a veteran team built with some very good defense and more varied offensive production. On it's face most would say because of the 162 game sample size you'd want 2008's team, but when breaking it down for the playoffs, and looking at matchups and strengths and weaknesses you'd have to maybe slide to that 2003 team. Sometimes even large sample sizes can be misleading given the way NBA and MLB seasons are constructed and played out.

I think simply looking at records is lazy analysis.

People generally assume that a team's record is the ultimate indication of performance. How many times do fans say, "Well, we won. That's all that matters." Sure, the Bulls went 50-16 this year, but they had a lot of shitty wins, a lot of ugly wins, and a lot of games that were won simply from luck. Most of us on here don't disagree with that, but what should we do? Sit there and say, "****! I would've rather lost that game, we didn't deserve it,"?

Optimism comes off as homerism, I completely agree. Sure, the Bulls' roster is flawed and the injuries to Rose, Noah and Deng accentuate those issues. And like you said, the Sixers were a tough matchup for the Bulls, given the injuries. Without Rose, Jrue Holiday's length gave Watson nightmares. Many people on this site don't like Noah, but losing him shows how shallow we are up front. Asik is what he is -- he's a backup who should never play more than 15 minutes a game.

My only concern is how limited our options will be going into the offseason. We're at the luxury tax and amnestying somebody is not going to solve any issues. The only real way to improve our roster is going to be through trades. Hopefully with the new CBA, teams in the same position as the Bulls, with regards to team salary, will be clamoring to cut costs and be willing to give up solid players in the cheap to get away from the luxury tax.

*cue trade for Carmelo Anthony/Dwight Howard/Star Player A thread*

 

[FirstTimer]

My only concern is how limited our options will be going into the offseason. We're at the luxury tax and amnestying somebody is not going to solve any issues. The only real way to improve our roster is going to be through trades. Hopefully with the new CBA, teams in the same position as the Bulls, with regards to team salary, will be clamoring to cut costs and be willing to give up solid players in the cheap to get away from the luxury tax.

*cue trade for Carmelo Anthony/Dwight Howard/Star Player A thread*

Fed and I are discussing this at length over at VSD.

The Bulls window is closing very quickly. It's maybe open just a crack at this point, and the teams salary situation is beyond awful for the next few years.

To save the typing I'll copy and paste the convo Fed and I are having:

Deserved to lose. Played like absolute crap without Rose. Not that they would have won without Rose or gone long they probably should've still beat Philly. Whatever, break this team apart and rebuild for 2013-14.

Pretty much all of this.

I was at the gym running and watching the game and the last 5 minutes was the worst playoff basketball I've seen this year so far. Just fucking awful.

I normally dog Asik a lot but I thought he played his ass off last night.

Taj was as usual really solid.

Boozer as usual was on the bench in crunch time. MONEY WELL SPENT!

Asik I've been really hard on but he balled out of his mind. Taj as well. Boozer was crap, Watson was crap, Korver was glued to the bench because he can't create his own shot, Brewer was non-existent.

I think there was a game this series where Brewer didn't even see the floor.

Not sure how you can brag about having a "deep" bench when one of your "key" bench players can't even get into an injury riddled playoff rotation.

Over under next years seed in the EC Playoffs? 3.

I'd say 3 or 4 seed. That seems to be realistic given their ability to beat some bad teams during the Regular Season. A lot depends on how they go about this offseason and the future. If GarPax wants to believe that this team was a Rose injury away from winning a title, we'll be the 1-3 seed for the next 5 years, tread water and maybe get a title out of it, but if they recognize the shortcomings of this team and realize the need for another scorer/slasher then it could be a whole different story next year as well.

I can tell you already that I'm really worried about Indiana next season. The more I watch them the more I like them and the more they scare me.

The Bulls are so damn handcuffed for next year salary wise I just don't know what they can do. If they can somehow convince Ray Allen to come for the MLE that will help a ton...but...how much?

Well yes and no. If they waive Brewer, Watson and all but $500,000 of Korver they get around $13 million in cap space. Then again, I'm not sure if waiving works the same as expired deals (so I'm not positive if that would increase our soft cap space).

Chicago Bulls Team Salary | HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors

For some reason I thought those deals came off after NEXT season.

I would assume there is some penalty for waiving non-expireds....then again the NBA's salary structure is a fucking horrible mess.

I won't lie, I usually understand but with these guys I have absolutely no idea. When I get some time I'm going to look at the Dallas Mavericks (they are a team who did a lot of non-guaranteed waives) to see how it changed their cap.

Boom, they had an article on HoopsWorld:

Chicago Bulls

Right now the Bulls are tax payers in 2012-13, sitting on $76.0 million to 10 players. The 29th pick in the draft will add about a million and tack on a minimum salary cap hold. They can use the mini-MLE, but it will cost them $6 million to do so with the tax. They can lower their obligations significantly if they waive Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson (the latter two by July 10th). They will pay just $500,000 to Korver instead of a combined $12.6 million. However, considering how good the Bulls were this past year, does it make sense to waive those players? They would still be over the cap so they would be limited to exception money (MLE and BAE) plus minimum salary deals to replace that trio. It’s unlikely that would make the team better. Amnesty is still an option for the Bulls.


So waiving those guys would give them that space. The issue is, you're left with a pretty bad roster for next year but I'm okay with that. Sign some MLE guys, let them expire in 13-14, amnesty Boozer when Rose is back in full health and try to get a free agent that offseason.

The real issue is paying Joakim Noah and Luol Deng like stars. That's going to be a huge problem. It's going to force us to let Taj Gibson go.

Yikes.

So basically this Bulls "window" is about closed. Maybe opened a crack?

Have to hope Mirotic is pretty damn good and you can bring him over after next year.

The Noah and Deng contracts could be cringe worthy..especially if they are untradable. I still hope the Bulls can trick Philly into trading Iggy for Deng as has been rumored in the past

The best move would honestly be to resign all of those guys, pay the tax next year, let them all expire and amnesty Boozer. What the article seems to indicate is that waiving them now will save money, but they'll still be in the tax and only able to still hand out some MLEs. I'd just bring them back next year and make 13-14 the big rebuild.

The issue becomes do you give money to Taj Gibson or do you go for big free agent with a really thin roster? It's going to be nearly impossible to sign him for what he'll likely get on the market and try to bring in another free agent. You simply can't have 5 big money guys on your roster.

Mirotic is going to be huge going forward, he's the real key as he's an affordable piece. The Noah/Deng albatrosses are just sitting there and making it very difficult for them to do anything.

Yeah, big picture if you are going to amnesty Boozer doesn't that free up money for Taj? Also, would he be a RFA so the Bulls could control that a bit I suppose. The sooner this organization can move Deng or Noah the better. If Mirotic is as good as advertised..or at least close I like what the Bulls can build around with a signing or two. If he's not you basically havea team that went from a perennial 1-2 seed to a perennial 3-4 seed pretty quickly. Think a decade or so of the 94-95 Bulls (Pre MJ-comeback) fan experience/results wise.


The big problem is your big money guys aren't going to get any better, Boozer is going to decline, God knows how Rose comes back from the ACL(Rose could improve but the injury worries you). Deng is what he is, Noah is what he is. There's really no "upside" left on the roster. Taj maybe has a little left but at best I'm not sure he's anything more than a poor man's David West(pre injury). Omer is pretty maxed out IMO....Jimmy Butler :rofl:? All of the Bulls big money has serious questions. Their bench has been exposed etc.


It's REALLY important they hit on draft picks. That Charlotte pick that becomes less and less protected over the next few years could be huge.

But the thing is, the Boozer money frees up for Taj, but is that really what you want to use most of your money on? If you sign Taj you're pretty much leaving yourself with a smaller window to get another scorer.

You're essentially looking at a 13-14 roster of

Rose - Some $10 million and under SG - Deng - Gibson - Noah as a luxury tax team. That's not including a really thin bench of MLE guys.

Bad bad bad.

Well, some of it depends how much Taj wants/is being offered. Hoops hype has his QA at just over $3 million as of now. That's managable. You have to hope you can lock him up long term somewhat affordabley but you know Taj's agent is licking his lips right now with the way his guy has played.

I'm not sure there is any real clean way out of this at this point. Like I've said all season the NBA is being built around super stars...the Bulls sunk money into middle tier players paid them borderline super star money, and their one true super star just tore his ACL.


I see no road map out of this wilderness of NBA mediocrity.

That QA probably increased by about $7-8 million now, I'd say he's up around $10 million per year easily. It's two straight playoffs now where he's stepped up and all but replaced Boozer. Teams love the idea of a guy who in limited minutes produces big numbers especially on the boards. That bodes well for long term success if given more minutes.

So if you do amnesty Boozer and sign Taj, you're looking at $8-12 probably taken up from him, so without looking at the numbers again, only about $12-16 to sign another big scorer, but no star is going to be had for that price.

Have to hope the player evaluation department can find a guy like Nick Young, Wilson Chandler etc that is cheap, can be had in a trade but has the bigger potential as a scorer and "off teh bounce" guy from the wing. Basically it revolves around falling ass first into a good 2 guard.

How nice would a Rudy *** signing have been about now?

Memphis may not be able to match a qualifying offer for OJ Mayo, so he's an option as well. Nick Young would be easier since he's unrestricted. Let me take a look at 13-14 and see who will be around.

Josh Smith, Kevin Martin, David West, Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, James Harden, Tyreke Evans (restricted).

There's a few I like there for the Bulls mainly Smith, Ellis, Harden. I'd say **** it to this offseason, tread water and go for a pretty hefty rebuild in 13-14.

None of those names really inspires much out of me. Harden would be the one guy that jumps off the page at me. Then maybe Ellis...after that...FML.

And I'm assuming Harden is smart enough to stick with OKC and run with them. If he resigns there, we're looking at potential dynasty in Oklahoma City. 3 star or near-star level players.

But not one of them hits their chest or does a gun move after they hit a jump shot.

 

[thechosenone]

Thanks god we didn't trade Deng,Noah and Taj with Howard for a one year rent.

 

[FirstTimer]

Thanks god we didn't trade Deng,Noah and Taj with Howard for a one year rent.

 

[thechosenone]

With Rose,Hamilton,Brewer,Boozer and Howard and the amazing bench of Lucas,Korver,Butler and Scalabrine we would have been eliminated in the first round too.

Starting lineup:
Watson,Hamilton,Brewer,Boozer,Asik! lol

And bear06 would have made a thread instead of FirstTimer:

Remember when everyone insisted on trading the whole team for Howard? WE NEED A 2ND SUPERSTAR

I really hope this playoff series makes Bulls fans realize how fucking stupid they sounded all year.

__________________

 

[Scoot26]

Thanks god we didn't trade Deng,Noah and Taj with Howard for a one year rent.

The Bulls would have never made a deal even because Howard wouldnt sign an extension. Thats the reality of the whole thing. If Howard would sign an extension...they would have probably made that trade. We'd have Turkoglu's terrible contract in return, and if Howard still hurts his back..well we would have still be fucked this year..but hey..the future would at least be bright.

 

[houheffna]

Thanks god we didn't trade Deng,Noah and Taj with Howard for a one year rent.

You can't be serious...you have NEVER heard that rumor by anyone credible...

 

[FirstTimer]

The Bulls would have never made a deal even because Howard wouldnt sign an extension. Thats the reality of the whole thing. If Howard would sign an extension...they would have probably made that trade. We'd have Turkoglu's terrible contract in return, and if Howard still hurts his back..well we would have still be fucked this year..but hey..the future would at least be bright.

See my post earlier about dumb fans not seeing the big picture.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

Matchups is highly important. There's a reason why the 06-07 Warriors beat the Mavericks, who had a 67-15 record that year, in the first round. The Warriors matched up well with them. Similarly, the Grizzlies matched up well with the Spurs last year and thus beat them in the first round as well.

while true, the spurs limped into the playoffs and manu got hurt..that had alot to do with it

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Personally, I can't wait for all the offseason threads about trade speculations. With any luck, they'll all be trades ideas where the Bulls curiously get the favorable end.