Report: cubs meet Eddy Julio Martinez's asking price

[beckdawg]

So does Martinez Join McKinney, Almora, Happ, Dewees, and Jiminez as potential trade bait or does he or any of these guys have the potential to knock out Soler or Schwarber by 2017..

One thing the Cubs have going for them now is a surplus of talented Outfielders...

Martinez wouldn't be knocking Soler/Schwarber out because chances are he sticks in CF with the cubs. There are some questions whether he will or not but I think Fowler has shown that CF in chicago is easier to play than some other places so assuming he hits his way to the majors I think you're looking at a CFer and given his reported speed that makes sense. As far as trade bait, again he's not in the same category as McKinney, and Jiminez as both are corner guys. Happ they are trying at 2B in instructs so he may not even be an OF come 2016.

My view is he's depth at CF behind Almora for who ultimately becomes your starting CF. At this point I'd put Almora at the odds on favorite for that. He started to come around as a hitter in the 2nd half in AA and the defense has always been there. Dewees could bee in contention too but as a 21 in Eugene he didn't hit amazingly well at .266/.306/.376. Keep in mind that Jiminez who is 18 was also there and hit .284/.328/.418. You would expect a college player to do better than that especially as a 2nd round pick. I'm not saying Dewees is done for as a prospect but he's probably not shown enough to warrant serious talk as a future CF for the cubs at the present day. He's also got a rather weak arm from the scouting grades which isn't ideal.

If I had to rank the cubs CF prospects(and mind you I'm not a scout) I would likely do something like this

#1 Almora
#2 Ian Happ(if he doesn't move to 2B)
#3 E.J. Martinez
#4 Darryl Wilson
#5 Donnie Dewees
#6 Jacob Hannemann

Though I would say Wilson and Dewees are close and some probably give an edge both in the fact Dewees is farther into the system and some probably prefer his skillset.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

How far away is Happ? If he's not too far, doesn't that make Baez or Castro a little more expandable?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

How far away is Happ? If he's not too far, doesn't that make Baez or Castro a little more expandable?

It's up to him. If he shows enough in the spring he may start at high A Myrtle Beach. They liked him a 2B in instructs and supposedly he fixed something in his swing. If he hits at high A he could get as far as AA next year. Best case scenario is that he's up in late 2017.

 

[pseudonym]

Question: Do we develop the minor league players or trade prospects for players we need NOW to win? (Catcher, Starting Pitchers, etc.)

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Question: Do we develop the minor league players or trade prospects for players we need NOW to win? (Catcher, Starting Pitchers, etc.)

Well they certainly don't need a catcher. Montero is signed for two more years and is pretty good back there, Ross is signed through next year. Schwarber will probably see some time back there next year as well. In 2017 look to see Willson Contreras come up to split some time with Montero before taking over.

As far as pitching I think they'll sign a FA to take #3 spot and keep trying to trade for a younger cost controlled guy (Tyson Ross, Carlos Carrasco, Julio Teheran, etc.). The trade may not happen until next year's deadline though.

Overall you're going to see a mix. The most important position to fill is CF as they don't have anyone ready. Almora is at least a year away and probably two. Eddy Julio Martinez, if he makes it, is a solid three years away. These guys are going to try to field the best team they can at the best value they can. They aren't going to throw guys away in trades just to make room.

 

[DanTown]

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cubs do any of the following things

- Go after a high price (haha, pun) SP and then go with an Austin Jackson type in CF. They'd need to decide what to do about the leadoff spot but it wouldn't shock me if the Cubs decided that Schwarber (with a guy like Russell batting ninth) isn't the worst idea.

- Make a run at the only high priced OF in Heyward to the point where the Cubs can then trade a few bats out of the minors for a Tyson Ross-level #3.

- Trade Montero (as good as his framing was), make Schwarber a platoon C/OF, resign Fowler and then sign a decent #3 if the price is right on guys like Shark, Zimmerman, etc.

The Cubs have probably three decent level OF prospects (Almora, Eloy Jimmenez, E.J. Martinez) but they're probably all two years away minimum (I'd say Almora is more 2017, Eloy/EJ are mid 2018-2019) so the Cubs won't want to wait on that considering they're winning now.

 

[beckdawg]

How far away is Happ? If he's not too far, doesn't that make Baez or Castro a little more expandable?

General rule of thumb for a prospect is 1 year per level though often times A is a bit dicey. The A level has 3 versions Short Season A(A-), regular A and Advanced A(A+). What you typically will see is high round drafted players ending up in A-(like happ) then they start the following season in A. The reason for this is A- is a half season league(hence the short season name). However, not all drafted players end up in A-. Some go to mesa(rookie ball). Just another example here, you also have IFA's like Eloy Jiminez and Torres who were signed 2 years ago. They spent the first season stateside in mesa if memory serves. But from there even though both were a similar talent level they took different paths. Torres went straight to A ball the follow season while Jiminez was still working on things in Mesa and finished in A-.

That's kind of a wordy answer to your question but by that logic, you probably expect Happ to start in south bend next year and finish in A+. The following year he would be in AA. The year after that AAA and the year after that the majors. So, more than likely 3 years. Prospects can reach faster than that. What Schwarber did was pretty crazy though making the majors in just over a year after being drafted. Super talented players like Bryant can generally make it in around 2 years. That's more common though not the norm. If i had to guess you're probably talking more like 2.5-3 years on Happ because while decent I don't know that he's Bryant good.

 

[beckdawg]

Question: Do we develop the minor league players or trade prospects for players we need NOW to win? (Catcher, Starting Pitchers, etc.)

As tc mentioned Contreras is a pretty big time prospect now. He's relatively new to the scene having a huge year in AA. Before that he hadn't quite played to his ability. Also I think this is only his second year at C. That drastically increases his value. Previously he played 3B if memory serves me and switched in A-. I'm guessing when all the top 100 lists come out after the season you might see him creep into the bottom half of the top 100 especially if he plays well in the AFL. You might think it's a fluke year and possibly it could be but AA tends to separate real prospects from pretenders. So, the fact his breakout year came at AA is very encouraging. He hit .333/.413/.478 with 8 HRs in AA with a pretty phenomenal 10.9%/11.9% bb/k rate. He's also had a few decent seasons at lower levels just not *this* good.

As for SP, i've mentioned this a number of times but there's a lot of pitching in the system it's just mostly below AA. Pierce Johnson could be in the majors by midseason next year. And after him you have Edwards but as I've mentioned elsewhere I think they are going to use him out of the bullpen to start his major league career and maybe switch laterI'm not going to turn this topic into the SP topic because there literally is another one for that already but honestly I don't think the cubs are as pitching hungry as most. They were a top 5 staff in almost every category this year. I think they need 1 pitcher because harren probably should retire. But there's any number of guys you could sign and be a solid #3 pitcher behind Lester and Arrieta. That would push Hendricks to your #4 and Hammel to your #5. The example I've used a couple of time is what if the cubs sign Lackey to a 2 year $30 mil deal which given the other names out there and given his age seems reasonable. If that happens you would be slotting the cardinals game 1 starter as your game 3 starter next year. Now maybe lackey doesn't pitch as well as he did this year but that is still a pretty solid staff. It's not say the Mets staff but a lot of cubs fans seem to act like they have to get David Price to even be decent. My view is just to relax. This was a 97 win team who didn't really have a solid #5 starter and who had a bunch of inconsistent young bats. If you put a decent #3 starter on this team and the bats mature they could easily repeat that 97 wins.

One thing I will mention though is the cubs have a number of players who are rule 5 eligible and we're talking decent prospects here albeit not amazing. Off the top of my head you have Vogelbach, Johnson(who i imagine they 40 man), Candleario, Daruy Torrez, and Corey Black. There's a few other lessor names just outside their top 30 prospects too. So, I imagine the cubs will want to make at least one trade to move some of these players as the 40 man needed to protect these guys is getting pretty full. Moving someone like Vogelbach probably makes a lot of sense as he really doesn't have a spot on the cubs. Most of these guys aren't going to net you a top tier player but consider that they traded Valbuena and Straily to get Fowler who was a key contributor and traded two worse prospects than this to get Montero who again was important.

So, they have a number of options as to how to approach next offseason.

 

[brett05]

As tc mentioned Contreras is a pretty big time prospect now. He's relatively new to the scene having a huge year in AA. Before that he hadn't quite played to his ability. Also I think this is only his second year at C. That drastically increases his value. Previously he played 3B if memory serves me and switched in A-. I'm guessing when all the top 100 lists come out after the season you might see him creep into the bottom half of the top 100 especially if he plays well in the AFL. You might think it's a fluke year and possibly it could be but AA tends to separate real prospects from pretenders. So, the fact his breakout year came at AA is very encouraging. He hit .333/.413/.478 with 8 HRs in AA with a pretty phenomenal 10.9%/11.9% bb/k rate. He's also had a few decent seasons at lower levels just not *this* good.

As for SP, i've mentioned this a number of times but there's a lot of pitching in the system it's just mostly below AA. Pierce Johnson could be in the majors by midseason next year. And after him you have Edwards but as I've mentioned elsewhere I think they are going to use him out of the bullpen to start his major league career and maybe switch laterI'm not going to turn this topic into the SP topic because there literally is another one for that already but honestly I don't think the cubs are as pitching hungry as most. They were a top 5 staff in almost every category this year. I think they need 1 pitcher because harren probably should retire. But there's any number of guys you could sign and be a solid #3 pitcher behind Lester and Arrieta. That would push Hendricks to your #4 and Hammel to your #5. The example I've used a couple of time is what if the cubs sign Lackey to a 2 year $30 mil deal which given the other names out there and given his age seems reasonable. If that happens you would be slotting the cardinals game 1 starter as your game 3 starter next year. Now maybe lackey doesn't pitch as well as he did this year but that is still a pretty solid staff. It's not say the Mets staff but a lot of cubs fans seem to act like they have to get David Price to even be decent. My view is just to relax. This was a 97 win team who didn't really have a solid #5 starter and who had a bunch of inconsistent young bats. If you put a decent #3 starter on this team and the bats mature they could easily repeat that 97 wins.

One thing I will mention though is the cubs have a number of players who are rule 5 eligible and we're talking decent prospects here albeit not amazing. Off the top of my head you have Vogelbach, Johnson(who i imagine they 40 man), Candleario, Daruy Torrez, and Corey Black. There's a few other lessor names just outside their top 30 prospects too. So, I imagine the cubs will want to make at least one trade to move some of these players as the 40 man needed to protect these guys is getting pretty full. Moving someone like Vogelbach probably makes a lot of sense as he really doesn't have a spot on the cubs. Most of these guys aren't going to net you a top tier player but consider that they traded Valbuena and Straily to get Fowler who was a key contributor and traded two worse prospects than this to get Montero who again was important.

So, they have a number of options as to how to approach next offseason.

First bold) A large part of that was an all time historic run by Arrieta.

Second Bold) While I agree on your positives, the negatives that the NL was one of the weakest all time which helped teams look better than they maybe.

 

[beckdawg]

First bold) A large part of that was an all time historic run by Arrieta.

Second Bold) While I agree on your positives, the negatives that the NL was one of the weakest all time which helped teams look better than they maybe.

As for #2, the cubs played in a division with the 3 best teams in baseball. I'm not sure I'd call that one of the weakest NL's of all time. Perhaps some of the other divisions were but you're only seeing them for a handful of series a year. I think you play each non-division NL team twice for 3 games so that's what 60 of 162 games? And even then you're playing teams like the Mets and Dodgers still.

As for the first point, Arrieta certainly had a great year. But Lester had a 3.34 ERA which was 21st in the majors. His 9.09 k/9 was 16th. His 2.06 bb/9 was 23rd. His 2.92 FIP was 13th. Hendricks 8.35 k/9, 2.15 bb/9, 3.95 ERA, and 3.36 FIP was 29th, 27th, 53rd, and 21st. Hammel's 9.07 k/9, 2.11 bb/9, 9.07 ERA, and 2.11 FIP was 19th, 25th, 44th, and 35th. So it's pretty disingenuous to suggest it was all Arrieta. They had essentially 4 top 50 pitchers.

I think it's entirely unlikely Arrieta repeats this season next year. With that being said, he's probably going to still be really good. And if you follow what I was talking about, you're going to be replacing 11 starts with Dan Harren(4.01/4.57 ERA/FIP), 7 starts with Tsuyoshi Wada(3.73/4.38 ERA/FIP), 9 starts with Travis Wood(5.06/4.59 ERA/FIP), 3 starts from Clayton Richard(3.00/4.02 ERA/FIP), 3 starts from Dallas Beeler(9.72/3.97 ERA/FIP), and 1 start from Donn Roach(10.80/3.43 ERA/FIP). Needless to say, there's a ton of room for improvement by just adding 1 pitcher to that mix. Those several pitchers combined for a 4.56 ERA. So, even if Arrieta is a half run worse next year at say 2.25 ERA you can pretty easily replace that 5th starter with someone who puts up a 4-ish ERA or possibly better.

If you look at the potential FA's for next year they finished the following in ERA
1 Zack Greinke 1.66
4 David Price 2.45
10 John Lackey 2.77
16 Scott Kazmir 3.10
17 Marco Estrada 3.10
18 A.J. Burnett 3.18
22 Wei-Yin Chen 3.34
28 Yovani Gallardo 3.42
29 Johnny Cueto 3.44
35 Dan Haren 3.60
36 J.A. Happ 3.61
40 Jordan Zimmermann 3.66
42 Brett Anderson 3.69
43 Mike Leake 3.70
47 Mark Buehrle 3.81

Now I think Burnett, Buehrle and Harren have all mentioned retiring talk. I just included them in case they change their mind. But you're still talking about 12 other guys who will be FA's who had a sub 4 ERA. And that doesn't include a number of other interesting buy low types such as Shark, Chad Billingsley, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson, and Kyle Lohse to name a few as well as Cliff Lee having a huge $27.5 mil option the Phillies might not pick up considering they are pretty horrid right now.

Regardless, I think it's pretty difficult to say that the cubs 2015 pitching staff was a fluke and I think it's entirely likely they can add one arm to give them the 5th starter they didn't have this year. You probably aim for someone like Lackey who may get overlooked by the star power out there and slot him in as your #3 with Hendricks being your #4 and Hammel your #5. Hell, you might be able to get someone like Jordan Zimmermann for something in the $15-17 mil range depending on how the market plays out.

 

[chibears55]

As for #2, the cubs played in a division with the 3 best teams in baseball. I'm not sure I'd call that one of the weakest NL's of all time. Perhaps some of the other divisions were but you're only seeing them for a handful of series a year. I think you play each non-division NL team twice for 3 games so that's what 60 of 162 games? And even then you're playing teams like the Mets and Dodgers still.

As for the first point, Arrieta certainly had a great year. But Lester had a 3.34 ERA which was 21st in the majors. His 9.09 k/9 was 16th. His 2.06 bb/9 was 23rd. His 2.92 FIP was 13th. Hendricks 8.35 k/9, 2.15 bb/9, 3.95 ERA, and 3.36 FIP was 29th, 27th, 53rd, and 21st. Hammel's 9.07 k/9, 2.11 bb/9, 9.07 ERA, and 2.11 FIP was 19th, 25th, 44th, and 35th. So it's pretty disingenuous to suggest it was all Arrieta. They had essentially 4 top 50 pitchers.

I think it's entirely unlikely Arrieta repeats this season next year. With that being said, he's probably going to still be really good. And if you follow what I was talking about, you're going to be replacing 11 starts with Dan Harren(4.01/4.57 ERA/FIP), 7 starts with Tsuyoshi Wada(3.73/4.38 ERA/FIP), 9 starts with Travis Wood(5.06/4.59 ERA/FIP), 3 starts from Clayton Richard(3.00/4.02 ERA/FIP), 3 starts from Dallas Beeler(9.72/3.97 ERA/FIP), and 1 start from Donn Roach(10.80/3.43 ERA/FIP). Needless to say, there's a ton of room for improvement by just adding 1 pitcher to that mix. Those several pitchers combined for a 4.56 ERA. So, even if Arrieta is a half run worse next year at say 2.25 ERA you can pretty easily replace that 5th starter with someone who puts up a 4-ish ERA or possibly better.

If you look at the potential FA's for next year they finished the following in ERA
1Zack Greinke 1.66
4David Price 2.45
10John Lackey 2.77
16Scott Kazmir 3.10
17Marco Estrada 3.10
18A.J. Burnett 3.18
22Wei-Yin Chen 3.34
28Yovani Gallardo 3.42
29Johnny Cueto 3.44
35Dan Haren 3.60
36J.A. Happ 3.61
40Jordan Zimmermann 3.66
42Brett Anderson 3.69
43Mike Leake 3.70
47Mark Buehrle 3.81

Now I think Burnett, Buehrle and Harren have all mentioned retiring talk. I just included them in case they change their mind. But you're still talking about 12 other guys who will be FA's who had a sub 4 ERA. And that doesn't include a number of other interesting buy low types such as Shark, Chad Billingsley, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson, and Kyle Lohse to name a few as well as Cliff Lee having a huge $27.5 mil option the Phillies might not pick up considering they are pretty horrid right now.

Regardless, I think it's pretty difficult to say that the cubs 2015 pitching staff was a fluke and I think it's entirely likely they can add one arm to give them the 5th starter they didn't have this year. You probably aim for someone like Lackey who may get overlooked by the star power out there and slot him in as your #3 with Hendricks being your #4 and Hammel your #5. Hell, you might be able to get someone like Jordan Zimmermann for something in the $15-17 mil range depending on how the market plays out.

I still believe Hammel will be traded. ..

They will find a team willing to deal a minor leaguer or two for 1 year of Hammel and the Cubs eating some of the 9 mil owed.


Cubs will add 2 starters to rotation in off season via FA and probably trade.. Hendricks will be the 5th starter

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I still believe Hammel will be traded. ..

They will find a team willing to deal a minor leaguer or two for 1 year of Hammel and the Cubs eating some of the 9 mil owed.


Cubs will add 2 starters to rotation in off season via FA and probably trade.. Hendricks will be the 5th starter

I agree with you although it could be Hendricks that is traded if that's the deal you can get. Hammel is fine as a #5 and in 2017 you have guys like Johnson and Edwards who could compete for a spot. They need a CF with OBP. another contact hitter for the lineup and, as you say, 2 starting pitchers. One in FA, one in trade.

 

[beckdawg]

I still believe Hammel will be traded. ..

They will find a team willing to deal a minor leaguer or two for 1 year of Hammel and the Cubs eating some of the 9 mil owed.


Cubs will add 2 starters to rotation in off season via FA and probably trade.. Hendricks will be the 5th starter

I don't see it. My question is this, if you're a team who needs pitching, why are you trading anything to get Hammel? He's owed $9 mil next year with a $10 mil option/$2 mil buyout for the following year. In the post you quoted I just named 12 guys with sub 4 ERAs as well as a number of other interesting guys. Starting pitching shouldn't be exceedingly expensive next season. So any of those guys can had at roughly the same price without giving up any prospect. The one area I might see you having a point is if a cash strapped team has to have someone. and they get the cubs to eat like $10 mil to put him around $5 mil for the next two seasons. But then again I would question why the cubs would essentially throw away $10 mil to create a hole in their pitching staff that they probably have to pay more money to fill?

I get that people aren't in love with Hammel but the front office isn't stupid. You don't sign Hammel to essentially a 3 year deal knowing you plan on moving him after this year. You could have had someone like Justin Masterson for 1 year at $9.5 mil which is roughly the same price as well as various other low cost options if that was the plan. In my opinion is far more likely they find one starter via FA or trade and call that good and then depending on Edwards/Johnson progressing decline his 2017 option if they are happy with either of those two as a starter or pick it up if not.

I really just don't see this 2 new starters that people think is obvious. CF is a far bigger priority than getting rid of Hammel/Hendricks. Clearly they need another SP as well but if you trade for one and then sign a FA SP or any combo of the two you have fewer prospects to try and deal for a CF and less money to re-sign Fowler not to mention the fact you still have a looming huge payday for Arrieta which could easily approach $30 mil/season. Even if they take a 1 year gamble on someone like Span instead of re-signing Fowler, he's not going to be dirty cheap. Torii Hunter at 40 got a 1 year $10.5 mil to play a corner OF and Alex Rios got $11 mil to do the same. CF's are naturally harder to find so Span realistically could cost upwards of $15 mil. And even if their payroll pushes toward the $150 mil range next season after arbitration and what not that's only around $35 mil to spend over what they have this year. If you're spending $15-20 mil on Span/Fowler that doesn't leave much room to play with for both getting rid of Hammel and signing/trading for 2 new starters.

 

[chibears55]

I don't see it. My question is this, if you're a team who needs pitching, why are you trading anything to get Hammel? He's owed $9 mil next year with a $10 mil option/$2 mil buyout for the following year. In the post you quoted I just named 12 guys with sub 4 ERAs as well as a number of other interesting guys. Starting pitching shouldn't be exceedingly expensive next season. So any of those guys can had at roughly the same price without giving up any prospect. The one area I might see you having a point is if a cash strapped team has to have someone. and they get the cubs to eat like $10 mil to put him around $5 mil for the next two seasons. But then again I would question why the cubs would essentially throw away $10 mil to create a hole in their pitching staff that they probably have to pay more money to fill?

I get that people aren't in love with Hammel but the front office isn't stupid. You don't sign Hammel to essentially a 3 year deal knowing you plan on moving him after this year. You could have had someone like Justin Masterson for 1 year at $9.5 mil which is roughly the same price as well as various other low cost options if that was the plan. In my opinion is far more likely they find one starter via FA or trade and call that good and then depending on Edwards/Johnson progressing decline his 2017 option if they are happy with either of those two as a starter or pick it up if not.

I really just don't see this 2 new starters that people think is obvious. CF is a far bigger priority than getting rid of Hammel/Hendricks. Clearly they need another SP as well but if you trade for one and then sign a FA SP or any combo of the two you have fewer prospects to try and deal for a CF and less money to re-sign Fowler not to mention the fact you still have a looming huge payday for Arrieta which could easily approach $30 mil/season. Even if they take a 1 year gamble on someone like Span instead of re-signing Fowler, he's not going to be dirty cheap. Torii Hunter at 40 got a 1 year $10.5 mil to play a corner OF and Alex Rios got $11 mil to do the same. CF's are naturally harder to find so Span realistically could cost upwards of $15 mil. And even if their payroll pushes toward the $150 mil range next season after arbitration and what not that's only around $35 mil to spend over what they have this year. If you're spending $15-20 mil on Span/Fowler that doesn't leave much room to play with for both getting rid of Hammel and signing/trading for 2 new starters.

I said with cubs eating sone of the 9 mil..

So, such team looking for a cheap veteran option as a 4th starter for 6 mil may go for it...
They can always flip him in july

Not saying he would be a team first choice, but when dust clears he could be an option for a team..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I527 using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

Not saying he would be a team first choice, but when dust clears he could be an option for a team.

I don't want to turn this into that thread but I just doing agree. There's 15-20 pitchers deep in FA this year which is about twice as big as a typical year. I think you're going to find 5-10 of those guys hunting for contracts in january to just have a team. So, I'm not sure it ever gets to that point for a team. I mean I think Hammel is better than people give him credit for so maybe you can argue he's more desirable to some team but if the cubs are trading him away doesn't that sort say his value to another team? I'm not even sure how you'd go about selling him to another team. I think Hammel has far more value to the cubs and hoping he can recapture the early season he has had the past 2 years and not fall off so hard in the 2nd half. But if you're another team or more realistically here if you're their fans, why would you want your team to trade for Hammel given the 2nd half?

Honestly, I think a far more realistic play if you want Hammel out of the line up is to have him start as the #5 with an eye toward Johnson being promoted midseason. And that's the other problem with adding 2 starters not currently with the team. You leave yourself no room for him if you're adding 2 more guys unless you're getting rid of Hendricks. I really feel like that's the play the cubs are going for with Hammel. Why else send Johnson to the AFL? He's honestly done enough to warrant that AAA call up so it's not really a competition thing. It seems more like a case of building up the innings he missed this year which coincides nicely with a possibly midseason call up next year as assuming all goes to plan in AAA he would have had enough seasoning.

As such, I think when you talk about Hammel you're really talking about Hammel/Johnson. If Hammel plays as well as he did the first half the last 2 years then there's no real rush on Johnson unless Hammel starts to suck in the 2nd half again. If Hammel sucks in the first half, you're only talking maybe 2 months before Johnson should be ready to be called up. If we use the Hendricks call up as a guide, Hammel started 17 games before being dealt at the start of July. Even if Hammel is bad he can't kill you that much in 17 starts and even worst case you might look to give Edwards or Turner if he's back a shot if he's Wood-like as the #5 this year. And Hammel is nice insurance assuming Johnson does stumble in AAA.

Adding 2 starters to me just seems like overkill unless you're moving Hendricks/Johnson for one. Like I said, obviously they should be going after one. But if a trade is out there for let's say Tyson Ross, why spend the money on a FA starter? Why wouldn't you instead bring back Fowler? Ultimately that's where this concept all falls apart for me. I can't really see a scenario where Span/<insert name> and 2 starters are more valuable to the cubs with Fowler + new starter + Hendricks/Hammel.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If Johnson is part of the mix in 2016 there's a problem. His ceiling is as a #4 starter and Hammel already is that. Also everybody worries about trading him because of the money but he's paid like a regular season #3 and a fringy playoff rotation piece (I still think the injury bothered him in the second half more than anyone let on) at $10 million per. He's not overpaid and if you included him in a trade for the contact hitter you need, for whatever position you can fit him in, I think that's very do able. Also stop worrying so much about money. These guys are going to spend more than you think they are, but they're going to spend judiciously. Two starting pitchers, and two position players (for CF, maybe 2B and to fill leadoff and another contact hitter) is not a monumental task, not easy maybe but not impossible. These guys know what they have and what they don't.

 

[DanTown]

Of the Cubs arms in the minors, the only TOR potential arm is Edwards but the Cubs doubt his durability so they moved him to the bullpen. Johnson projects as a Hendricks type (5-6 IP of solid pitching but lacks swing and miss stuff), Underwood hasn't gotten to AA yet and even then doesn't scream TOR guy. There is no relief for the starters coming from the minors in the near future; it's FA or trades.

 

[beckdawg]

If Johnson is part of the mix in 2016 there's a problem. His ceiling is as a #4 starter and Hammel already is that. Also everybody worries about trading him because of the money but he's paid like a regular season #3 and a fringy playoff rotation piece (I still think the injury bothered him in the second half more than anyone let on) at $10 million per. He's not overpaid and if you included him in a trade for the contact hitter you need, for whatever position you can fit him in, I think that's very do able. Also stop worrying so much about money. These guys are going to spend more than you think they are, but they're going to spend judiciously. Two starting pitchers, and two position players (for CF, maybe 2B and to fill leadoff and another contact hitter) is not a monumental task, not easy maybe but not impossible. These guys know what they have and what they don't.

The last 3 years I've hit their opening day payroll on the nose more or less. The only exception was when they failed to sign Tanaka but had they it would have been right inline with what I said. As for Johnson's ceiling, I've heard some suggest it's higher than that and frankly he has better stuff than Hendricks. MLB.com has his ceiling as a #2 though I'll concede that's probably too high. As for Hammel, while I agree he's not over paid, comparative to what you can likely acquire this FA period he probably is.

Regardless, I really fail to see the logic you're presenting with regard to acquiring two starters plus whatever they do in CF. I mean I understand you wanting to improve the rotation and in a perfect world I agree that makes sense but the logistics of it I can't see happening. As I said before, I imagine after a playoff run and a good year of tv ratings they may approach $150 mil opening day payroll. That's a $30 mil increase. They already have $79.5 mil committed to next season with $25 mil going to Lester, $14 mil to Montero, $9 to Hammel, $7.85 mil to Castro, $5.29 to Rizzo, $3.67 to Soler, $2.5 to Ross and $12 mil in dead money to Jackson/Conception. In terms of arbitration, you have Wood(Arb 3), Arreita(Arb 2), Strop(Arb 3), Cogs(Arb 2), Turner(Arb 1), Grimm(Arb 1) and Rondon(Arb 1).

Mlbtraderumors projects the following for those players
Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
Jonathan Herrera (5.101) – $1.1MM
Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.6MM
Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM
Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM

I'm not 100% sure why cot's contracts doesn't have Richard and Herrera in their arbitration listings but I can't imagine Herrera is back anyways. You can make a case for non-tendering some of these guys but assuming they don't that's another $32.3 mil with Richards. Cot's contracts also suggest Cahill has an option year but I'm not sure if that is accurate given he was release and I assume that voids that particular deal since the cubs didn't pick him up off waivers. So, he might also have arbitration eligibility but meh. If he does it probably balances out anyone they non-tender.

If you add that to the committed money that's $111.8 mil leaving roughly $38.2 mil to play around with assuming my $150 projection is accurate. I have to imagine that Arrieta being re-signed will be a priority which depending on the structure of a deal could impact things. This front office has chosen to front load a lot of the bigger deals. However, I am going to ignore that for the moment since who knows what will happen. $38.2 mil basically leaves you with enough money for a decent starter and a decent CF. As I mentioned before, Span likely will be close to $15 mil and if they instead bring back Fowler you're probably talking close to $20. That basically leaves you around $15-20 mil depending on who you go with to sign a decent starter and even if you don't buy a FA, any decent pitcher you go for in a trade is likely in arbitration 2 or 3 and will likely be $7-12 mil.

My view is you get your 1 starter and see how Hammel/Hendricks play out until around midseason. Johnson being called up is possible. Edwards seeing time in the rotation is possible. Hell, you might even argue Turner has a strong spring and makes some waves. And assuming none of that works out, chances are you're still in great position to make a deadline move. Unless literally the perfect storm falls in your lap I don't see you being better off than that. And by that I mean unless you are able to sign Zimmermann or someone like him under market value and then make a trade for someone like Ross without giving away too much(i.e. not giving up Baez/Torres...etc).

 

[beckdawg]

Johnson projects as a Hendricks type (5-6 IP of solid pitching but lacks swing and miss stuff).

This is inaccurate based on everything I've read. Kiley McDaniel who now is working in the braves front office gave his stuff the following grades before the season

Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+

MLB.com has the following grades

Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Cutter: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50

MLB.com suggest his ceiling is a #2. Kiley put it as a #3. Kiley tends to be a bit more conservative but I also think his case is fair. Hendricks had one plus pitch which was his change up. Rest of his were 50 grades or worse. A 60 grade pitch is pretty good. As an example here, MLB.com gave Steven Matz a 65 fastball, a 60 change and a 50 curveball. Like wise, CJ Edwards had a 65 fastball, 60 curveball and a 50 change. Johnson has more than enough swing and miss stuff. He's basically been a 9+ k/9 guy in the minors save for this season where he was coming back from an injury both to close 2014 and a different one to start this year. Hendricks didn't even approach 8 until AAA.

Long story short here, had Johnson pitched a few more innings he would have qualified for the ERA title in AA. So while I certainly agree he's not a TOR starter, calling him Hendricks is unfair and I as you well know think highly of Hendricks. Johnson's stuff is vastly superior to Hendricks and coincidentally his biggest handicap might be command which is Hendricks' calling card.

 

[Boobaby1]

In Maddons interview after the game, a reported asked what Joe thought the Cubs needed most moving forward.

In plain and simple terms and with a little hesitation, he replied " I think pitching".

He said he would sit down with Theo and Jed and discuss the team over all and he would respect their decisions as he also said "I am a company man", but if I had to read between the lines, I am guessing starters and bullpen help.

Now, that doesn't mean they have to go out and get a ton for the bullpen, but as for the starting staff, we know Haren isn't coming back, and if I had to guess, I would say that the Cubs won't eat Hammel's contract to move him.

In reality and as I've noted before, I think a guy like Lackey is in play here as a bridge. I also think that Hendrick's inability to go deep might be a concern also to Maddon. Just guessing.

So with that, I think a trade of Hendricks and maybe a minor leaguer or some package to get a player in need like a centerfielder might work if they don't re-sign Fowler, and then pick up a couple of pitchers like Lackey and Gallardo or something of that nature.

Another option if they choose to stand pat with Hammel and Hendricks at the back end until others arrive, then I would be in all out mode to sign Heyward for centerfield as opposed to Fowler as far as leading off and also sign Lackey or Gallardo.

I know the contracts would be immensely different, but I like strong defense up the middle, and you could have a Montero, Russell, Castro and a Heyward foursome, which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Putting him between Schwarber and Soler I would think could only help them.