Rumor: Jon Lester’s Former Teammates Believe He Will Sign With the Chicago Cubs

[brett05]

How much would the Cubs spend to sign one of these high priced FA if they for some reason decide to eat Jackson's contract?

Good question. They did eat some sori money but if they aren't going to free up that cash for others....

 

[Parade_Rain]

His numbers speak otherwise. I think he's a solid three. I haven't heard anyone saying he's in the Darvish/Ryu/Tanaka class. The reports I have heard are he's below that. His numbers that I saw agreed with that assessment.

You can win quite a few ballgames with solid #3 pitchers.

 

[CSF77]

You can win quite a few ballgames with solid #3 pitchers.

I've heard that to but those same people said Tanaka was a 3 2 at best and he was a clear ace.

He was a shade under Tanaka. Tanaka was rated a 2-3 came in a gave ace performance. Madea is ranking 3-4 right now by the same guys.

IMO these evaluates are under valuing the pitchers because of the hitting talent but as we have seen through out the years that matters little as thse pitchers translate over fine will little to no transition time wasted.

A tick under Tanaka means 2-3 in the league.

 

[CSF77]

The way I look at it in 3 (2017) years where do the Cubs need to be? O wise they should have plenty of talent. SP Jackson gone. Arrieta in a walk year at 31 yo.
Hendricks hitting his first arb year at 27. Then Jon Lester 33 yo. or Maeda 29 YO in his prime.

That is a big question here. They could be looking at losing Arrieta and Jon in a decline vs Maeda peaking to take over for Arrieta.

 

[SilenceS]

Lester's career FIP is 3.59. This year 2.59. This is his first yearthat it has dropped under 3. He is peaking at a contract year. Before his career best was 3.13 in2010. That year he ended up with 19 wins. His SO/9 was a huge factor. 9.7 and ended up with 225.

CO is making a valid point here. When you see a guy drop a full point on FIP and he drops 1 BB on BB/9 over his career avg on a walk year it brings to question of it repeating or going back to his career avg.

We saw this with Dempster in his last year and it got him a 3 year deal and he never put up that production again. To be honest seeing a pending F/A peak is pretty common. Boost up his sale value.

Yet again, take FIP with a grain of salt. The reason it dropped because he is walking over 1 less a game and his homerun rate is down. You have to go deeper then just FIP to see what a pitcher really is. Team defense can make FIP almost null and void. Like I said, you can give up a 100 hits and 99 runs but as long as you didnt walk a batter, hit a batter, or give up a homerun. Your FIP would be 0. Lester has been way more than a 1 year wonder.

 

[SilenceS]

That is debateable. Maeda has ace stuff. That overhand curve he was laying on guys was old world. You just don't see that pitch anymore. Not to mention he has a plus slider that he mixes in. He is not the typical split/shuuto type we see coming over.

Where are you getting Maeda has ace stuff? I have not read that anywhere.

 

[CSF77]

Where are you getting Maeda has ace stuff? I have not read that anywhere.

Personal opinion based off his arsonal. FB hits 95. Late break slider. Big overhand curve. Traditional split and a shuuto. He has 5 strong offerings. The only hit against him is his body frame. Talent wise he has TOR stuff.

 

[CSF77]

Yet again, take FIP with a grain of salt. The reason it dropped because he is walking over 1 less a game and his homerun rate is down. You have to go deeper then just FIP to see what a pitcher really is. Team defense can make FIP almost null and void. Like I said, you can give up a 100 hits and 99 runs but as long as you didnt walk a batter, hit a batter, or give up a homerun. Your FIP would be 0. Lester has been way more than a 1 year wonder.

Not only his FIP but his ERA is a full point under his career avg. You have to go by his career numbers not by a single year. Now if it has been a 3 year run like Brett said? 2011 3.83 FIP. 2012: 4.11 2013: 3.59 20142.62. That is true but look before:

2008: 3.64
2009: 3.15
2010: 3.13
2011: 3.83
2012: 4.11
2013: 3.59
2014: 2.54

The big picture sheds a different light. He got worse and bottomed out in 2012. Now he is building it back up and is peaking again in a walk year.

 

[CSF77]

Anyways he is my #2 choice based off of age. In a perfect world they sign both and eat Jackson's deal but that is not being realistic with the Rickett's.

What I find realistic is they go after 1 TOR to go along with Arreta. Hendricks is a solid 3 on this team. They are stuck with Jackson as a 4. They can shed some contract with Wood and let Turner take over the #5.

Actually if they ate Jackson's 22 mil next year and cut him and let that year's flex absorb it. Back fill with Turner. Trade Wood for a project-able arm. Back fill with Felix Doubront.

Puts the rotation at Arrieta, Hendricks, Turner, Doubront. They still have room for 1. AAA they should have Johnson and Edwards.

To be honest they could just use next year to get out of Jackson's deal early. Give that year up to let Baez, Bryant and Soler to go through some growing pains then have 11 mil freed up the following year to go after Price.

There are a few directions that they could go here. Retaining Wada is really not a bad option for the short term IMO.

 

[brett05]

I've heard that to but those same people said Tanaka was a 3 2 at best and he was a clear ace.

He was a shade under Tanaka. Tanaka was rated a 2-3 came in a gave ace performance. Madea is ranking 3-4 right now by the same guys.

IMO these evaluates are under valuing the pitchers because of the hitting talent but as we have seen through out the years that matters little as thse pitchers translate over fine will little to no transition time wasted.

A tick under Tanaka means 2-3 in the league.

I only heard tor with Tanaka

 

[CSF77]

I only heard tor with Tanaka

Tanaka was being called a #3. Yanks went at him for 155 mil which is ace pay. Seems like they knew better.

All I'm saying is you can not judge him until he is playing at this level. As we have seen Japanese pitchers are constantly being undervalued and undeserved. The only exception way Yu who had a larger build and was evaluated as a clear ace.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I've heard that to but those same people said Tanaka was a 3 2 at best and he was a clear ace....

My comment had nothing to do with Tanaka. It was a comment that even if he is a solid #3, it isn't necessarily a bad thing. Maeda, Arrieta, Hendricks would make a solid staff and then if a couple of those other acquisitions/pitchers in farm are also solid next year, the team could in theory compete next year for at least a WC spot.

 

[Bear Pride]

My comment had nothing to do with Tanaka. It was a comment that even if he is a solid #3, it isn't necessarily a bad thing. Maeda, Arrieta, Hendricks would make a solid staff and then if a couple of those other acquisitions/pitchers in farm are also solid next year, the team could in theory compete next year for at least a WC spot.

Especially when the Cubs are marching out the new murderer's row!

 

[CSF77]

My comment had nothing to do with Tanaka. It was a comment that even if he is a solid #3, it isn't necessarily a bad thing. Maeda, Arrieta, Hendricks would make a solid staff and then if a couple of those other acquisitions/pitchers in farm are also solid next year, the team could in theory compete next year for at least a WC spot.

I think on this staff he would be equal to Arrieta. Both have some proving to do but both have a good arsenal of pitches. I like Hendricks and believe he should be a 15 win pitcher on a quality team.

It is after that that is in question. Jackson is at best a 8 win pitcher and Wood is .500. The run support should increase and that is when you start to look at SP with FIP's at 3.50 and lower.

IMO they should try to fix Turner. Sad that they can't push him to Iowa to work on him like they did with Arrieta last year. One thing I can say is they know what they are doing with these pitchers. Arrieta was trash and not he is finally finding his early projections. No reason why Turner can not find that success also.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/360817-orioles-top-prospect-no-3-jake-arrieta

In any other organization, namely one without Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta could easily pass for a number one pitching prospect.

Great fastball, check. Above-average complimentary pitches, check. Innings eater, check. Bulldog tenacity on the mound, check. History of being a go-to guy, double check.

In fact, with the graduation of Matusz last season (although he didn't pitch enough to revoke his rookie status) Arrieta essentially is the number one pitching prospect NOT in the bigs.

But unlike Tillman or Matusz, Arrieta wasn't always a sure-fire thing.

It seems in the past few years you couldn't see or hear Arrieta's name without commas separating his from Matusz and Tillman. As in "Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta will bring about the Orioles turn around."

But flash back to four years ago. Arrieta was the 20-year old ace of the Texas Christian Horned Frogs team that won the Mountain West Conference. As said ace, he won 14 games for the Frogs, a little more than a third of the 39 that the team won.

He struck out a whopping 111 batters in the same number of innings, and led the team in most pitching categories. His 2.35 ERA was second in conference.

Just like that, Arrieta's name shot up the draft boards, but he wasn't eligible for the draft for another season.

The outlook for his junior season at TCU was about as bright as it could be. He was on award watch lists, and his name was already being trumpeted as a first-round pick.

But, for some reason or another, Arrieta wasn't able to put together the kind of campaign he did in 2006. His numbers were still good (9-3 3.01 ERA), but his strikeouts dipped, and his walks almost doubled. More important, he started the same number of games as the previous year, but pitched nearly 15 innings less.

In addition, his velocity dropped, and his once steady command appeared to be wavering.

As if things weren't going poorly enough (Arrieta dropped out of first-round consideration), the "you know what" hit the fan when Arrieta decided to tab Scott Boras as his representation for the upcoming draft.

Goodbye first-round, hello free-fall!

Luckily for the the O's, Arrieta slipped all the way to the fifth round. In fact, the team had wanted to take the hard-throwing righty earlier, but they had no second or third-round picks. After some hard-ball talks with Arrieta and Boras, the O's were finally able to get the righty on board, with a $1.1 million signing bonus.

The O's were convinced that Arrieta's dip in velocity was just a mirage, and that he was plenty capable of developing into the pitcher most scouts figured he would be after 2006.

However, they played it quite liberally with Arrieta. They threw him right into the fire, letting him try his hand at High-A Frederick, where Arrieta blossomed.

He won league Pitcher of the Year honors, and would have taken home the best ERA and the highest number of strikeouts had he not taken a month off to pitch for Team USA in the 2008 Olympics, where he pitched six shutout innings with seven K's against team China in his lone start.

Every team that passed Arrieta over must have had the same thought: I can't believe we passed on this guy....for FIVE rounds!

Arrieta saw his stock rise immensely after his successful 2008 campaign. Many people even clamored for him to get a shot at one of the Orioles open rotation spots.

But the O's played it conservatively with Arrieta, and bumped him up to Double-A, with a vision of him playing half the season at Bowie, and the other half at Triple-A Norfolk.

Arrieta showed no signs of slowing down at Bowie, and mowed down batters with his repertoire of off-speed pitches and his devastating fastball that can reach 97. After 11 games, Arrieta had six wins, a 2.59 ERA and 70 strikeouts in only 59 innings.

True to their word, the O's bumped him up to Norfolk, where he spent the remainder of the season. The results there weren't nearly as dominating, but he did manage to keep his ERA under 4.00 and he still struck out close to eight batters per nine innings, an impressive number for a starter.

He finished the season with a line of 11-11, a 3.40 ERA, and 148 strikeouts in 150.2 innings. Most of his combined numbers led the organization.

So, here we are in 2010.

Arrieta is currently in big league camp with the O's for Spring Training. Securing a rotation spot appears out of the question at this point, but with the inevitable injuries that occur over the course of a 162-game season, it's almost a given that Arrieta will get a chance to make his Major League debut sometime this year.

And while he may not have the polish of a Brian Matusz, or the perfect pitchers' body or mechanics of a Chris Tillman, Arrieta could very easily end up being the best of the three.

The Orioles will be happy if he can just stick in the Majors.

I have a feeling he will.

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2014/8/8/5980057/cubs-acquire-jacob-turner-marlins

The Cubs today acquired pitcher Jacob Turner from the Marlins for two as yet unnamed minor league pitchers. The two are not expected to be prospects. Turner was traded to the Cubs after the Marlins had designated him for assignment earlier in the week.

Turner was the ninth overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Detroit Tigers. He was considered the top high school pitcher in the draft and maybe even the third overall pick (behind Stephen Strasburg and Dustin Ackley), but his large bonus demands scared several teams off and he was the third high school pitcher taken and the sixth overall pitcher. The Tigers signed him to a major league deal worth a total of $5.5 million. The Marlins would later pay for this folly, as because of that major league deal Turner is now out of options.

Turner instantly became the top prospect in the Tigers system and would be for the next three seasons. He had a plus fastball that sat at 92-94 and he could rev it up to 97 mph on occasion. His curveball was projected to be a plus pitch and his change up projected out to be at least average. With two plus pitches and a solid third, Turner was projected out to be a number two starter in the majors, or at worst a number three if one of those two off speed pitches failed to develop as hoped.

You can probably guess where this is going. He cruised through both levels of A ball in 2010 and in 2011 was pitching well at Double-A Erie when he got a call up to Detroit to make one start against the Angels. He acquitted himself well and when he was demoted, he went to Triple-A Toledo. He battled some minor arm and shoulder problems late in 2011 and the Tigers limited his innings the rest of the way, although he didn't miss any significant time. His minor league numbers in 2011 were good, but not great like you would expect from a top prospect. He got a major league call up in September of 2011 because, hey, he's on a major league contract anyway. But the Tigers were in a pennant race (so to speak, they had a huge lead on Cleveland) so he only made two starts and one came after the Tigers had clinched. He got hammered in both starts.

In 2012, Turner was expected to start the season in the Tigers rotation, but he missed most of Spring Training and the first few weeks of April with shoulder tendonitis. When he came back, he was sent to Toledo where he was plagued with inconsistency. Those off-speed pitches that the scouts thought were potential plus pitches never lived up to their potential. His superficial ERA in Toledo in 2012 was a solid 3.16. But without a second plus pitch, Turner's strikeout numbers were dropping. He walked too many batters. He was becoming a ground ball pitcher.

Still, everyone thought he could still be a solid mid-rotation pitcher and he was traded in July of 2012 to Miami as part of the Anibal Sanchez trade. He pitched well for the Marlins down the stretch in 2012 and it looked like the Marlins had made a smart acquisition.

He opened the 2013 season in Triple-A and struggled. He was recalled to Miami at the end of May and again, his superficial stats were good: a 3.74 ERA. But he was only striking out 5.9 batters per nine innings and he was walking 4.1. His FIP was 4.47. That's not a good combination for long-term success.

This season, Turner's luck ran out. He has struggled badly at the major league level. He's cut the walks down quite a bit, but he still doesn't seem to have developed an out pitch that can put hitters away. The Marlins designated him for assignment after posting a 4-7 record with a 5.97 ERA in 12 starts and eight relief appearances.

But the underlying numbers show some improvement. Strikeouts are up. His fastball velocity is holding steady. The walks are down. Although his ERA is high, much of that can be explained by a very high .368 BABIP. His FIP this season is down to a not-embarrassing 4.01. Much of his failure this season could be explained to bad luck.

Obviously, the Cubs see Turner as a reclamation project similar to Jake Arrieta. He still doesn't profile as a top starter unless he cam somehow develop another plus pitch. Not likely, but possible. He's only been pitching professionally for 3 1/2 years. He's still only 23. Another option is to move him to the bullpen where he could just rely on his fastball a lot more. That would be the route taken by Andrew Miller, another former top Tigers prospect traded to the Marlins where he disappointed.

Turner is a low-risk gamble that could pay off big. It's not very likely to pay off, but if it doesn't, then the Cubs just haven't lost much.

Update: The pitchers have been named



So his short coming is the lack of a put away pitch.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Oh we have been over this and you are wrong. Sorry, you just are.

As for Lester, he is not much of a risk. Even if he turns out not to pitch as well the next 5 to 6 years. All it will cost is money. This is why you play the control game with prospects. So, you can sign a guy like this and can absorb the money much easier if he fails. Baez, Soler, and Bryant will not be expensive for years. Castro and Rizzo are a couple years away from their bigger salaries. Even if they sign Lester for 130 million and he shits the bed. The Cubs can take that hit a lot easier now then 5 or 6 years from now.

I can agree to all the points you make in bold. But you telling me I'm wrong just because? What is that?

Lester isn't an ace, is going to command ace money, therefore we shouldn't give it to him. I don't see how other than using this years numbers, he is an ace? You telling me I'm wrong isn't really making me change my stance.

Yet again, take FIP with a grain of salt. The reason it dropped because he is walking over 1 less a game and his homerun rate is down. You have to go deeper then just FIP to see what a pitcher really is. Team defense can make FIP almost null and void. Like I said, you can give up a 100 hits and 99 runs but as long as you didnt walk a batter, hit a batter, or give up a homerun. Your FIP would be 0. Lester has been way more than a 1 year wonder.

That's an extreme. FIP is not a perfect stat, no. But, it is a better stat year to year than ERA. ERA correlates at 0.38, while FIP at 0.59.

You're absolutely right as to why it is down, due to the fewer walks and lower homerun rate and that's exactly why it raises a red flag. If he has always walked more batters than he has this year, what has changed? If it is a mechanical thing I haven't heard about it. Assuming ceteris paribus, the lower walk rate is unsustainable. His HRs are down because his HR/FB rate is down. It's at 5.7%, which is also unsustainable. HR/FB has a low correlation rate, but that's the point. It jumps around so much, it is very likely to see a large spike next year.

 

[CSF77]

I can agree to all the points you make in bold. But you telling me I'm wrong just because? What is that?

Lester isn't an ace, is going to command ace money, therefore we shouldn't give it to him. I don't see how other than using this years numbers, he is an ace? You telling me I'm wrong isn't really making me change my stance.


That's an extreme. FIP is not a perfect stat, no. But, it is a better stat year to year than ERA. ERA correlates at 0.38, while FIP at 0.59.

You're absolutely right as to why it is down, due to the fewer walks and lower homerun rate and that's exactly why it raises a red flag. If he has always walked more batters than he has this year, what has changed? If it is a mechanical thing I haven't heard about it. Assuming ceteris paribus, the lower walk rate is unsustainable. His HRs are down because his HR/FB rate is down. It's at 5.7%, which is also unsustainable. HR/FB has a low correlation rate, but that's the point. It jumps around so much, it is very likely to see a large spike next year.

S you said the same thing with Wood last year. It couldn't hold. Lester is having a career year right now and is going to get paid off of it. Now he is a legit #2 in the league. At max he should get 130 mil due to his play off track record.

I'm expecting him to want a deal like Cliff Lee got from Philly.

5 years/$120M (2011-15), plus 2016 option

5 years/$120M (2011-15), plus 2016 option
signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 12/14/10
11:$11M, 12:$21.5M, 13:$25M, 14:$25M, 15:$25M, 16:$27.5M club option ($12.5M buyout)
option becomes guaranteed if Lee 1) is not on the disabled list at end of 2015 season with injury to left elbow or left shoulder, and 2) has 200 IP in 2015 or 400 IP in 2014-15
award bonuses: $50,000 each for Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, All-Star, LCS MVP. $0.1M for WS MVP. $0.1M for Cy Young ($75,000 for 2nd in vote, $50,000 for 3rd)
limited no-trade protection (may block trades to 20 clubs, including all clubs except Atlanta, Cleveland, Houston, Miami, Minnesota, NY Mets, San Diego, Tampa Bay and Washington)

That is honestly a legit ballpark figure for him.

 

[theberserkfury]

“(The Red Sox) told me, ‘We're going to be aggressive. You're going to get blown out of the water by some of these (other) offers,' ” Lester recalled. “I'm like, ‘I don't need to be blown out of the water.' Why would I need to be blown out of the water? That doesn't make or break your decision, at least for me. I'm not going to the highest bidder. I'm going to the place that makes me and my family happy. If that's Boston, it's Boston."

“In the greater scheme of things, we're talking about just a stupid amount of money,” he said. “For me, I want to be comfortable. The way I look at it is, if someone gives you $170 million and someone gives you $150 million, is that $20 million really going to change your lifestyle? Same thing if the highest bidder is $100 million and the team you're going to feel most comfortable with offers $80 million. Is that $20 million really going to make the difference in your lifestyle?”

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...ree-agency-im-not-going-to-the-highest-bidder

I feel like I've heard many pro athletes say they won't go to the highest bidder but when they're faced with that money... who knows.

 

[brett05]

“(The Red Sox) told me, ‘We're going to be aggressive. You're going to get blown out of the water by some of these (other) offers,' ” Lester recalled. “I'm like, ‘I don't need to be blown out of the water.' Why would I need to be blown out of the water? That doesn't make or break your decision, at least for me. I'm not going to the highest bidder. I'm going to the place that makes me and my family happy. If that's Boston, it's Boston."

“In the greater scheme of things, we're talking about just a stupid amount of money,” he said. “For me, I want to be comfortable. The way I look at it is, if someone gives you $170 million and someone gives you $150 million, is that $20 million really going to change your lifestyle? Same thing if the highest bidder is $100 million and the team you're going to feel most comfortable with offers $80 million. Is that $20 million really going to make the difference in your lifestyle?”

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...ree-agency-im-not-going-to-the-highest-bidder

I feel like I've heard many pro athletes say they won't go to the highest bidder but when they're faced with that money... who knows.

:clap:

 

[chibears55]

you know if you really think about it, that trade could come down to one of the worse for the As if they don't win it all this year.

their gonna go into the off season not only not having Cespedes but also Lester and have nothing to show for that deal..

they probably would've gotten more in return for Cespedes had they waited til the off season to move him..

Boston could really end up being a big winner in this deal if they get Lester back and another year of Cespedes or more if they extend him..

 

[JZsportsfan]

I'd be shocked if the Red Sox didn't extend Cespedes