Sabermetrics

[nwfisch]

I'm not aware of many sabermertrics, and when I am made aware of them, most people use them as the only means of evaluating a player, and are treated as gospel in evaluating players.

Hopefully Poodski, Rice and others can help me see the benefits of sabermetrics, and what are the ones that best evaluate players.

 

[poodski]

I guess what are your questions?

Why use them? Because they correlate to wins/runs better than your basic stats/scouts can come up with. Players were/are drafted because they possess the "5 skills" and those don't necessarily translate to an asset on the field. Corey Patterson is a prime example of that.

Basically the point of sabermetrics is to find metrics that correlate better to runs/wins than other metrics/stats.

That's why you the evolution from OPS to wOBA with several stops along the way.

I mean even stats like FIP correlate better with future ERA than ERA does.

Players have little control over whether their balls go for hits or not. You are going to start seeing more luck balanced stats like wOBAr and prOPS in the future as well to show that a hitter is being (un)lucky.

The notion that just because you played baseball means you know more than someone who didn't is so wrong it's not even funny, and honestly that's why there is this rift between the numbers guys and non numbers guys. It's amazing how often someone will say "yeah well I played college ball therefore I know more than you". Which is well Special person on so many levels. I never played past 11th grade because well I couldn't hit a baseball if i was swinging with a telephone pole and I tore the ligament that connects your thumb and the rest of your hand and can't pitch anymore.

This doesn't mean just because someone played one day of baseball their senior year means they know more than me. Hell look at Joe Morgan one of the greatest players ever and can't tell his ass from a hole in the wall when it comes to player evaluation.

There us still the need for scouting and what not but it's not nearly as much as people think it is. Advanced metrics are quite simply the best way to evaluate players.

 

[nwfisch]

I guess what I'd like are links to what numbers like FIP mean :shrug: and how they're computed :dunno:

 

[poodski]

Google them. They are pretty easily available.

I think baseballprospectus.com has them all in their glossary. Hardballtimes might as well.

Even Wikipedia has them I'm sure. Seriously though google these things.

 

[Rice Cube]

There's a pretty cool blog post about RBI today from Beyond the Box Score:

The Flip-side of RBI's: Run Opportunity Creators - Beyond the Box Score

You can read about some of the metrics here:

FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

 

[Rice Cube]

It's probably important to note that you cannot simply play baseball with a spreadsheet and a calculator, as there has to be a scouting system in place to identify the kids with the most upside. You need the scouts to first go out and say "Hey, this kid can hit a fastball AND a slider" or "Hey, this kid can hit a ball 700 feet"...at that point the coaches and player development folks have to help that player improve such that he can help the major league club. But during that development period the player will amass plate appearances or innings pitched and it is from that sample of data that you can start gauging how he is likely to progress based on the mountain of data from previous comparable players as well as relative to the level that they are playing at. Successful baseball building is achieved through synergizing good scouting with good data analysis. And good data analysis begins with understanding that the RBI is not the king of statistics.

 

[poodski]

I can agree with that but even drafting has it's numbers. College position players have a MUCH higher rate of success than HS pitchers drafted.

I honestly don't believe in drafting pitchers because I don't believe pitching prospects exist. I suppose that's a whole different argument but there's still numbers in everything.

 

[Rice Cube]

I can agree with that but even drafting has it's numbers. College position players have a MUCH higher rate of success than HS pitchers drafted.

I honestly don't believe in drafting pitchers because I don't believe pitching prospects exist. I suppose that's a whole different argument but there's still numbers in everything.

There's a good reason to draft college guys due to their higher sample size. They simply play more games more consistently against better competition overall than high schoolers. At the same time, a lot of high school kids have "upside" and there's some kind of voodoo magic that exists through scouting that can identify those kids. So you have to have a certain amount of good voodoo magic and a good analytical staff for when they develop. The voodoo magic will also get you lucky at some point and find a Mark Prior or a Greg Maddux, so while pitchers have a lot of variance, you do need to try to narrow it down and find the guys who will be worth a damn later on whether they are a HOF starter or a LOOGY.

 

[Uman85]

I can agree with that but even drafting has it's numbers. College position players have a MUCH higher rate of success than HS pitchers drafted.

I honestly don't believe in drafting pitchers because I don't believe pitching prospects exist. I suppose that's a whole different argument but there's still numbers in everything.

Drafting a pitcher will always be a high-risk move. Drafting a high school pitcher is an even greater risk. If it works out, great but if you spend a high pick on one and he's a dud, you're basically screwed for that draft year. I was being looked at as a position player in high school and a couple scouts told me themselves that pitching prospects are a risk they wouldn't recommend to their respective clubs. Position players are a dime a dozen and unless they are really gifted, they like them to have a few years in college before going pro. I probably would've been drafted out of high school, but knowing what the scouts told me, I likely would've played college ball for at least 2 years +.

 

[Rice Cube]

Drafting a pitcher will always be a high-risk move. Drafting a high school pitcher is an even greater risk. If it works out, great but if you spend a high pick on one and he's a dud, you're basically screwed for that draft year. I was being looked at as a position player in high school and a couple scouts told me themselves that pitching prospects are a risk they wouldn't recommend to their respective clubs. Position players are a dime a dozen and unless they are really gifted, they like them to have a few years in college before going pro. I probably would've been drafted out of high school, but knowing what the scouts told me, I likely would've played college ball for at least 2 years +.

I think for the most part it would be a good idea to draft proven position players and develop them, then save your other resources for scouting and analyzing other pitchers so you can poach them from other teams in free agency. You can use both scouting and stat analysis for the position players, and mostly stats for the free agent pitchers. However, scouts can identify those younger pitchers/position players with upside, especially in foreign markets, and that's important. The successful blend of scouting and statistical analysis is again very key to building a baseball franchise.

It helps to have been involved in baseball (playing, managing etc) on the scouting side, but being that most people who do the fancy stats stuff are fairly intelligent and like the game enough that they know rules and strategies and shit, it's probably not necessary for the statsy folk to have been an all-star baseball player or a former prospect.

 

[Jntg4]

y=mx+b

The equation for the slope/rate of ascension/descent of a batted ball.

 

[Rice Cube]

y=mx+b

The equation for the slope/rate of ascension/descent of a batted ball.

Your equation assumes that gravity does not exist.

 

[Jntg4]

Your equation assumes that gravity does not exist.

Maybe it doesn't.

 

[poodski]

Your equation assumes that gravity does not exist.

You never fail to disappoint.

 

[Jntg4]

You never fail to disappoint.

Rice Cube never fails to disappoint? I think he's a very good poster...

 

[Rice Cube]

Maybe it doesn't.

Or, that the baseball is hit so fucking hard that gravity's effect on its trajectory is negligible

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

y=mx+b

The equation for the slope/rate of ascension/descent of a batted ball.

it would probably be a quadratic actually,since a ball hit usually goes in some sort of parabolic path

 

[poodski]

Rice Cube never fails to disappoint? I think he's a very good poster...

Yeah I said that wrong.

 

[Jntg4]

Or, that the baseball is hit so fucking hard that gravity's effect on its trajectory is negligible

:yeah:

That's what the Cubs do when they !

 

[Jntg4]

Yeah I said that wrong.

Thought so, but I've learned never to assume someone wrote it wrong here... just go by what they write and wait for a correction.