Second Base

[CSF77]

Defense up the middle is 100% of the time and Almora is the best center fielder we have. Heyward is the best right fielder we have. I think Bote is best at third base.

I am not against your 23 and 24th position players being a zobrist type of being able to play everywhere. All I am saying is we have not see what this team could do when players stay at one position for a long time. You look at all the variables, most wont let me blame Madden, now I cant blame superstars bouncing all over the field. Its just go back to blame all the low dollar players for not being good enough.

I would rather have Happ in CF. Happ is league avg at CF and held a 126 wRC+. So in reality he is not beating you in CF and is helping you at the plate.

Almora is a dislike value hitter every year that he has played and his D regressed last year as he added body weight.

So if you don't believe in that that is fine. But IMO he added weight to add power and it cost him range in CF. And it didn't pay off at the plate.

Almora at this point is questionable on offering him arb much less starting in CF.

 

[CSF77]

Best static line up:

Bote 2B
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Happ CF
Contreras C
Heyward RF

Bote held a .362 OBA last year and hit rhp better than LHP. So in reality he might be the ideal guy to lean on.

Bryant if a offer blows them away. No reason to trade him if they are not getting a impact return.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Best static line up:

Bote 2B
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Happ CF
Contreras C
Heyward RF

Bote held a .362 OBA last year and hit rhp better than LHP. So in reality he might be the ideal guy to lean on.

Bryant if a offer blows them away. No reason to trade him if they are not getting a impact return.

Real reason to trade KB is not performance, it's payroll, which you are not factoring in. So, you and the Cubs are not speaking the same language in re why they would want to trade Bryant.

Now, I have two static lineups, one without Bryant and assuming no other major acquisitions who would crack the starting lineup. The other assumes signing Castellanos the moment Bryant's salary is gone. And these are lineups assuming an opposing RHP. You can play with platoons as you see fit when facing a LHP.

So, with Castellanos:

Hoerner 2B
Castellanos RF
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Schwarber LF
Bote 3B
Contreras C
Heyward CF

or, without any significant additions to the big league club:

Hoerner 2B
Schwarber LF
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Bote 3B
Happ CF
Contreras C
Heyward RF

If Rossy will consider it, I might even slot the pitcher into the 8 spot and bat Heyward 9th, depending on how he's doing at the plate. I'd definitely think about doing that if he builds on his 2019 year and doesn't regress.

As with you, even though Contreras has a bat that slots well into the 5th spot in the order, so do a number of other people, so I like to see him at like 6 or 7 in the order. And it's good to limit your primary catcher's at-bats a bit, especially a catcher who is more likely to injure himself running the bases (history of hamstring issues) than playing catcher.

Again, I think a projected 2020 Cubs starting lineup with Bryant in it is about as likely as one with Aaron Judge or Pete Alonso in it. Just don't see it happening. I think it's better to try and get a "mouth feel" for what this lineup is going to look like without KB this coming year.

-Doug

 

[CSF77]

Real reason to trade KB is not performance, it's payroll, which you are not factoring in. So, you and the Cubs are not speaking the same language in re why they would want to trade Bryant.

Now, I have two static lineups, one without Bryant and assuming no other major acquisitions who would crack the starting lineup. The other assumes signing Castellanos the moment Bryant's salary is gone. And these are lineups assuming an opposing RHP. You can play with platoons as you see fit when facing a LHP.

So, with Castellanos:

Hoerner 2B
Castellanos RF
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Schwarber LF
Bote 3B
Contreras C
Heyward CF

or, without any significant additions to the big league club:

Hoerner 2B
Schwarber LF
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Bote 3B
Happ CF
Contreras C
Heyward RF

If Rossy will consider it, I might even slot the pitcher into the 8 spot and bat Heyward 9th, depending on how he's doing at the plate. I'd definitely think about doing that if he builds on his 2019 year and doesn't regress.

As with you, even though Contreras has a bat that slots well into the 5th spot in the order, so do a number of other people, so I like to see him at like 6 or 7 in the order. And it's good to limit your primary catcher's at-bats a bit, especially a catcher who is more likely to injure himself running the bases (history of hamstring issues) than playing catcher.

Again, I think a projected 2020 Cubs starting lineup with Bryant in it is about as likely as one with Aaron Judge or Pete Alonso in it. Just don't see it happening. I think it's better to try and get a "mouth feel" for what this lineup is going to look like without KB this coming year.

-Doug

If it was only about payroll then Theo would have taken a lesser deal to move him. Or he would have tried to sell Q or Chatwood.

No it is about a max return. That is why his name is out there.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

If it was only about payroll then Theo would have taken a lesser deal to move him. Or he would have tried to sell Q or Chatwood.

No it is about a max return. That is why his name is out there.

Oh, no, I get that. With two remaining years of control, Bryant is worth at least one major leaguer and a good haul of high-end prospects. The reason to move him *now* is to get maximum return. The reason to move him *at all* is to clear payroll. But, if you're determined to trade someone to clear payroll, you look at the guy with the highest return value.

That's only with two years of control. With one year of control, then you need to start looking to move someone else, 'cause his value goes way down in that case.

Getting really annoying that KB's trade value is in limbo, and stays there, while the League office sits and contemplates its' collective navel. Grrr.

-Doug

 

[CSF77]

Oh, no, I get that. With two remaining years of control, Bryant is worth at least one major leaguer and a good haul of high-end prospects. The reason to move him *now* is to get maximum return. The reason to move him *at all* is to clear payroll. But, if you're determined to trade someone to clear payroll, you look at the guy with the highest return value.

That's only with two years of control. With one year of control, then you need to start looking to move someone else, 'cause his value goes way down in that case.

Getting really annoying that KB's trade value is in limbo, and stays there, while the League office sits and contemplates its' collective navel. Grrr.

-Doug

I believe that he is worth 1 55 grade player and a grade 50 player.

In other words he is worth Nico and Marquez in a return.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

I believe that he is worth 1 55 grade player and a grade 50 player.

In other words he is worth Nico and Marquez in a return.

Which sounds about right. My fear is that GMs will take that and decide that, well, maybe instead of one 50 and one 55, I'll take six in the 90s and below. Shotgun effect. Which so often bombs out entirely...

-Doug

 

[CSF77]

Which sounds about right. My fear is that GMs will take that and decide that, well, maybe instead of one 50 and one 55, I'll take six in the 90s and below. Shotgun effect. Which so often bombs out entirely...

-Doug

70 is a stud. That is a generation talent.

55 is a borderline top 100.

50 are guys in the 100-250 range.

45 are typical AAAA talent.

Below that end up going to their college degrees to make a buck.

So a fringe 100 and a just under is fair. It really depends on the player and MLB ready.

I really see the next window opening with Marquez and Davis. So you would want to have a control window in that time frame. That also ties to extending players. You really are looking a a 6 year window of control.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

70 is a stud. That is a generation talent.

55 is a borderline top 100.

50 are guys in the 100-250 range.

45 are typical AAAA talent.

Below that end up going to their college degrees to make a buck.

So a fringe 100 and a just under is fair. It really depends on the player and MLB ready.

I really see the next window opening with Marquez and Davis. So you would want to have a control window in that time frame. That also ties to extending players. You really are looking a a 6 year window of control.

Sorry, thought you were talking about prospect ranking.

-Doug

 

[CSF77]

Sorry, thought you were talking about prospect ranking.

-Doug

Bryant is not worth the #50,#55 and the #90.

Maybe right after his MVP season and Theo sold high knowing that Boras would be a pending thorn.

But even with 2 years you are looking at Nico and Marquez as a return. 1 year you are looking at Ademan and Abbott.

That is simple reality. Teams are not going to push out a high ceiling (unless it is most likely to fall short) for 1 year of control of a 5 WAR player.

 

[CSF77]

Players are graded on a 20-80 scale for future tools -- 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average.