Should You Draft WR or RB in the First Round?

[Aesopian]

Should you? Every year talent is found in later rounds having a WR or RB but no offensive line is almost useless anyway unless it's a Leonard Fournette or Julio Jones type talent.

Adam Thielen: Undrafted
Doug Baldwin: Undrafted
Antonio Brown: Round 6 - Pick 195 overall
T.Y. Hilton: Round 3 - Pick 29
Jarvis Landry: Round 2 - Pick 31
Stefon Diggs: Round 5 - Pick 10
Allen Robinson: Round 2 - Pick 29
Alshon Jeffery: Round 2 - Pick 13
Davante Adams: Round 2 - Pick 21
Tyreek Hill: Round 5 - Pick 28
Keenan Allen: Round 3 - Pick 14
Juju Smith-Schuster: Round 2 - Pick 30
Cooper Kupp: Round 3 - Pick 5
Brandon Marshall: Round 4 - Pick 119 overall

 

[HansGruber]

Should you? Every year talent is found in later rounds having a WR or RB but no offensive line is almost useless anyway unless it's a Leonard Fournette or Julio Jones type talent.

Antonio Brown: Round 6 - Pick 195 overall
T.Y. Hilton: Round 3 - Pick 29
Jarvis Landry: Round 2 - Pick 31
Stefon Diggs: Round 5 - Pick 10
Allen Robinson: Round 2 - Pick 29
Alshon Jeffery: Round 2 - Pick 13
Davante Adams: Round 2 - Pick 21
Tyreek Hill: Round 5 - Pick 28
Cooper Kupp: Round 3 - Pick 5
Brandon Marshall: Round 4 - Pick 119 overall

You do know we have a pretty good RB by the name of Jordan Howard on the roster already right?

 

[PaytonHighstep]

I don't think the question is posed for the 2018 draft, but more generally from year to year.

I wouldn't, unless my team was a playoff team and setup well in the trenches, then I'd have them in play in the latter part of round 1.

 

[Aesopian]

You do know we have a pretty good RB by the name of Jordan Howard on the roster already right?

It's a hypothetical situation don't read to much into it.

 

[HansGruber]

I don't think the question is posed for the 2018 draft, but more generally from year to year.

I wouldn't, unless my team was a playoff team and setup well in the trenches, then I'd have them in play in the latter part of round 1.

If that's the case then that a big fat NO,you shouldn't draft a RB or WR that high.Typically you would want to go defense or Oline .And referring to this year we should go for an edge rushing OLB or CB but i wouldn't be mad if we went Oline,preferably the kid from ND

 

[Visionman]

You can find top OL later in the draft as well, even as UDFAs. Just take the best player available for us...

 

[Midway Fields]

Should you? Every year talent is found in later rounds having a WR or RB but no offensive line is almost useless anyway unless it's a Leonard Fournette or Julio Jones type talent.

Antonio Brown: Round 6 - Pick 195 overall
T.Y. Hilton: Round 3 - Pick 29
Jarvis Landry: Round 2 - Pick 31
Stefon Diggs: Round 5 - Pick 10
Allen Robinson: Round 2 - Pick 29
Alshon Jeffery: Round 2 - Pick 13
Davante Adams: Round 2 - Pick 21
Tyreek Hill: Round 5 - Pick 28
Cooper Kupp: Round 3 - Pick 5
Brandon Marshall: Round 4 - Pick 119 overall

Saquan Barkley is that elite talent. Bears should have a Jordan Howard trade in place in case Barkley falls in their lap.

He is like LT as a receiver and would be a better fit in Nagy’s system as well.

 

[Huxster]

Neither -
C Ferrell (if he declares, hurry up lad)
J Jackson
R Smith

 

[Speed]

And that's only the good players on that list. The Bears will settle for the Golden Tate's of the world over starting Bellamy & Inman.

I don't know if the value is there most of the time, short of drafting the next Julio or Peterson and theres not too many of those hanging around. I read a ugly stat on 1st round WR's and their hit rate. If you get an absolute beast on the board, or you're not forcing it sure, but most of the time I just don't know if it's worth it.

 

[iueyedoc]

Should you? Every year talent is found in later rounds having a WR or RB but no offensive line is almost useless anyway unless it's a Leonard Fournette or Julio Jones type talent.

Antonio Brown: Round 6 - Pick 195 overall
T.Y. Hilton: Round 3 - Pick 29
Jarvis Landry: Round 2 - Pick 31
Stefon Diggs: Round 5 - Pick 10
Allen Robinson: Round 2 - Pick 29
Alshon Jeffery: Round 2 - Pick 13
Davante Adams: Round 2 - Pick 21
Tyreek Hill: Round 5 - Pick 28
Cooper Kupp: Round 3 - Pick 5
Brandon Marshall: Round 4 - Pick 119 overall

Are you going to put the list of RB's in a new thread? Looking forward to it. Please link them so that I can keep up.
Thaaaaanks.

 

[gallagher]

I'm of the opinion that you take whichever player is most likely to make an impact on your team in the first, regardless of position.

It's a modified BPA strategy.

 

[Bearly]

I look at it mare as who can do your team the most good over the long haul. If it was about instant production you'd never draft QBs or WRs in one and draft lots of RBs there.

I have to be very convinced about a WR or RB to consider them in 1 but there are always exceptions to almost any rule. Look at Dallas when Elliot was out. Jones and megatron were certainly worth their selections but in general, I need a relatively higher grade at those positions to consider them. Why I would have taken Beasley before White. Not because he had the better grade but because he had a better shot at developing.

You don't take RBs because their floor is generally high and their ceilings don't vary as much as other spots and you don't take WRs because their floors are low and bust factor is high, mostly because they are difficult to scout to the next level. RB are low risk, low reward and WRs are high risk meh reward though as I stated, there are exceptions for both.

 

[Myk]

Yes, you are dumpster diving otherwise. Even if you have Cohen (let's assume his career ends as a HOF'er) on your radar as a great one you have to figure there are a good percentage of other teams that see the same thing. You may think size and school will cause him to drop but you are taking a risk letting him sit through 118 picks, 9 of which were RBs.

If you have a player with all the right stuff on your list you get them as soon as you can no matter what position they are, but great WRs and RBs are no question to go early. Only here in Bears land do people think WR isn't an important enough position to spend a first on (and this is the first time I've ever heard any question from Bears land that RB isn't worthy of a #1 pick).

 

[Bearly]

It's not a worthy thing for me as a risk/reward ratio vs position impact thing. There needs to be a high chance of reward at those positions to make them worthwhile. Of course, need also plays in but risk management plays into BPA as well. I willing to draft almost any position early but high risk positions need high possible rewards or just be players with high floors. It's like not taking a G early but if a wide body 370 lb that could move and always get you 2+ yards on 3rd down showed up, he'd go early.

Questions like this shouldn't be answered in absolutes because it even goes beyond ceilings, floors and percentages of success. Positional value like QB, LT and edge rusher also plays in and the hit to miss ratio of those 3 is very different.

 

[AustinIllini]

Can you? Sure. Should you? Maybe. I think an early second round pick is a better spot for wideout.

Deandre Hopkins went number 27 in the first round. He's a total stud.

 

[Toast88]

Faulty argument.

Should you draft any position in the first round?

Statistically-speaking, most first round picks are busts. So maybe just always trade your first round pick away and stock-pile mid rounds.

But wait—your chances of hitting on a starter decrease each round. So maybe just don’t draft?

You gotta take your shot. Most of the time, it’s not going to work out. But you ID your guy, or someone you think can become your guy, and go get him, and do the best you can do.

If we redrafted those drafts, all those guys you listed would instantly become top 10 picks. Do you think they’d regret spending a first on any of those guys? Do we have any of those guys in this draft? Hard to say, but it’d be foolhardy to say “no”, because every single team in the league said the same thing about all the guys you listed, as literally every team in the league passed over them multiple times. Knowing what they know now, that wouldn’t be the case.

Your value doesn’t grow because you’re a mid round RB/WR, and the Bears, or any team, are just as likely to bust on a first round OT selection, or LB selection, or whatever position.

 

[BearbaFett]

depends on the state of your team. giants already had eli when they picked OBJ and falcons already had matty when they picked julio.

those situations were ready-made situations for top-flight WRs to excel, and those teams knew that.

for RBs, it would be how good the OL is. cowboys have one of the best OLs in the league, so they took their shot with zeke.

 

[Bearly]

Which also plays into BPA. Nothing is that pure when you need a cog and a guy is close in grade, A good GM also understands that his grades aren't absolute and tries to help his team in the best possible overall way.

 

[xer0h0ur]

I feel like RB is a super high bust rate in the first round as for the recent past. Let me clarify, by bust I mean that they didn't end up being franchise backs that were either good enough or good enough for long enough.

I'm not in the draft a RB in the first round camp though. Its a position who's importance has diminished greatly since the NFL's move to the use of multiple backs. Perhaps back in the day it had more importance when the 2nd string back was nothing more than depth and a guy to throw in there to let the starter breathe on the sideline. Not anymore.

Wide receiver is another story entirely. Its one of the most coveted skill positions because of the added emphasis on the passing game in the recent past. First round receivers aren't busting at an abnormal rate comparatively to other positions. Someone had posted the bust rates for the various positions at some point during this season. I can't be bothered to find them since I am enjoying breakfast as I peruse the forum.

Don't get it twisted though, I am pretty sure the consensus is that there aren't any worthy first round receivers this draft. So while I wouldn't personally shy away from a first round receiver pick in general, I wouldn't want one this go round.

 

[iueyedoc]

i'm of the opinion that you take whichever player is most likely to make an impact on your team in the first, regardless of position.

It's a modified bpa strategy.

BPAAAPON-best player available at a position of need. I agree with this strategy unless you are looking at a complete tier drop off from the BPA