Some random thoughts on cubs direction post-Darvish trade

[beckdawg]

First thing that comes to mind is they are extending Contreras. I suppose theoretically you could let him play out his final 2 years and then look at Amaya but that doesn't strike me as likely. If the idea was to move him I don't think you trade Caratini as he has more control. So assuming that's the case I'm actually happy in that regard because I've always wanted them to extend Contreras. I just think it's far too difficult to replace the kind of offense he can bring as a catcher and if his 2020 results with framing continue then he could be a monster.

Second thought that occurred to me the cubs are pretty quickly clearing the books and have a pretty clean fucking slate. Heyward has 3 years($21M,$22, $22). Hendricks has 3 with a 4th option($14 mil and $1.5 or $16). Bote has 5 years($1 mil, $2.51, $4.01,$1 mil/$7 mil option, $7 mil option). The only other name that might show up on the 2022 payroll with guaranteed money is kimbrel's option but I suspect with them moving Darvish it's quite likely they will also be looking to move Kimbrel.

Obviously the team has decisions to make on several players with 1 year remaining. But their current committed money drops from $102.3M prior to the darvish trade in 2021 to $39 mil which is pretty nuts to think about. What people forget about rebuilds is often the biggest hurdle is cleaning the books. Remember for example that during the last rebuild the cubs had to move Zambrano and Soriano at points.

So, while i wouldn't classify the cubs current situation as the best it could be, there are some perks to it. Even if they have no intention of dropping huge money in FA there's a lot of creative ways to use money. For example, teams lately have eaten short term bad contracts in exchange for compensation picks in the draft. And while it's not as prevalent as it used to be, trading for IFA slot space is still something that can be done. Plus buying cheap FA's and hoping to flip them becomes easier when you have less money overall committed.

 

[knoxville7]

This is a solid assessment. Freeing up darvish’s salary in the last few years of his contract is pretty amazing really. They planned on competing the first few years of Yu’s contract, but didn’t expect a 37 year old darvish in his last year of that contract to contribute much to a winner. To get out of paying him at that age is a good thing

I’m curious how they play things with rizzo. Do they still extend him because of his leadership and being a fan favorite? Or do they let him walk, not wanting to commit 3+ years to a guy that is getting older and has a history of back issues?

also, would they consider trading Hendricks? I imagine he could get a nice return seeing as he has 3 or 4 years of control at a reasonable price, and his arm isn’t the type to just suddenly drop off with age

 

[CSF77]

Yes on Contreras. But you never know. He may just trade him and Happ also and continue signing F/A types on 1 year flip deals for 3 years while building up his farm system..
This to me has the most likely scenerio. He would never say overhaul on a top 5 rev. Team. The backwash would be too much. They lost fans going into 2015 by saying what it is.

So this is a 'we are still contending while building the next wave'.

Tom is losing money right now. That is what is driving this buggy forward. He can not afford to lose at the box when things normalize. So I see it as Jed will sign shirt term flyers to flip and say we are competing. But it is all a facade.

 

[ijustposthere]

There's word they are shopping Contreras. I will be fucking pissed if they flip him. Look, I'm pretty fine with getting rid of just about everyone, but they need to keep Contreras, Baez, Happ, & Rizzo to rebuild around. Would like to see Hendricks stay as well.

 

[Probie2429]

This team hasn’t been good post-WS. Not sure why people are attached to players that are providing the results we see. The core is rotten and if you can sell for prospects with good projections, take advantage of that. Ross is actually the right manager for a rebuild. He will work much better with developing players than managing former teammates.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

There's word they are shopping Contreras. I will be fucking pissed if they flip him. Look, I'm pretty fine with getting rid of just about everyone, but they need to keep Contreras, Baez, Happ, & Rizzo to rebuild around. Would like to see Hendricks stay as well.

Lol so you are okay with trading anyone except the people that might have value? Thats not how this works. Also Rizzo is most certainly not a piece to rebuild around. If we are talking 1 year retool thatd be one thing. But rebuild will have rizzo on the downturn of his career when we are ready to compete again

 

[ijustposthere]

Lol so you are okay with trading anyone except the people that might have value? Thats not how this works. Also Rizzo is most certainly not a piece to rebuild around. If we are talking 1 year retool thatd be one thing. But rebuild will have rizzo on the downturn of his career when we are ready to compete again

It's not a tear down, it's a cash dump.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

It's not a tear down, it's a cash dump.

I think they are past the point of cash dump and finally moved on to selling their valuable pieces

 

[CSF77]

Contreras has trade value and did not suck last year. He becomes the #2 catcher on the market and arguebly more attractive due to cost control.

So as far as a chip goes it is a big one and net real talent. As far as replacing him Amaya could be pushed into the roll and they ink a vet to work behind him. David would be his teacher so it would be a work in progress. But in reality there is nothing in AAA for him. David has proven to be able to teach these guys well enough the art.

So IMO catcher is the one area that you can figure David can handle. Pre David both Conteras and Caratini were bottom half framers and then both shoot up to the 15% in 1 year. Dude knows his stuff.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Contreras has trade value and did not suck last year. He becomes the #2 catcher on the market and arguebly more attractive due to cost control.

So as far as a chip goes it is a big one and net real talent. As far as replacing him Amaya could be pushed into the roll and they ink a vet to work behind him. David would be his teacher so it would be a work in progress. But in reality there is nothing in AAA for him. David has proven to be able to teach these guys well enough the art.

So IMO catcher is the one area that you can figure David can handle. Pre David both Conteras and Caratini were bottom half framers and then both shoot up to the 15% in 1 year. Dude knows his stuff.

Rickets will get their own people into management and make the next build. Rizzo is the face that holds the fans attention, and can rot over there like Mark Grace and oversee another complete rebuild, or one day near the end be traded to a contender at the deadline.

Contreras is tough. I can see the point of those that point to Contreras as being part of a championship core.

Catcher, short stop(up the middle defense-2B, CF), pitching...


Its a time honored formula and you don't like to go backwards if you can get those positions shored up, especially in the NL. Baez-Contreras is a nice combo punch.

But the time feels right to get out of owning a catchers knees before they diminish their bat. Ross may feel good about some other catchers, or you know...in house they could feel that Ross's ability to assess the catcher position will be a team strength and fill that need a couple times over in time. If the return is right at a position that has a steep physical decline, thats a sad business side of analytics that might have to be done.

 

[CSF77]

Rickets will get their own people into management and make the next build. Rizzo is the face that holds the fans attention, and can rot over there like Mark Grace and oversee another complete rebuild, or one day near the end be traded to a contender at the deadline.

Contreras is tough. I can see the point of those that point to Contreras as being part of a championship core.

Catcher, short stop(up the middle defense-2B, CF), pitching...


Its a time honored formula and you don't like to go backwards if you can get those positions shored up, especially in the NL. Baez-Contreras is a nice combo punch.

But the time feels right to get out of owning a catchers knees before they diminish their bat. Ross may feel good about some other catchers, or you know...in house they could feel that Ross's ability to assess the catcher position will be a team strength and fill that need a couple times over in time. If the return is right at a position that has a steep physical decline, thats a sad business side of analytics that might have to be done.

The Cubs have been good at keeping their catching core on a rotation which lessens the wear and tear part. I am all about a personal catcher and utilizing the DH to add PA's on off days. Lacking a DH 1B works as well.

To me having 2 starter quality bats that move between 1B or DH is a wise choice. 1B would be perfered due to not forcing the pitcher to hit if a emergency comes up. That way you could invest into a corner IF back up to plug 1B when needed.


If it was me. 2022 I would do a hard reset. Perez would be hitting FA at that point from KC. Make a splash with him. Then rotate him and Amaya between 1B and C. 2/3 works but it would be a caddy system and both play close to 162 games. Minus a few that a corner back up gets to give 1 a full day off.

DH if it goes into play would be a rotation spot for the corner OF. That way you keep them near 162 games and a day off from the field vs losing PA's.

CF/2B/SS ideally you would have 1 guy that can do all and rotates around to give days off.

 

[beckdawg]

So after another night of sleep, i have a few more thoughts. To some extent, I know it's sort of cliche to see prospects in a minor league system and pencil them into the MLB roster in 2-3 years. Players don't always develop how you'd like. With that being said however, I do think the cubs long term options become more interesting with the haul from the Darvish trade.

Consider for a moment that they have Howard who is likely to be a top 100 guy in a year or two if he develops. They will also have Cristian Hernandez who hasn't technically signed yet because of the july 1st issues with covid. But he's a 17 year old who has been compared to AROD and Manny Machado. Point blank, he's probably not that good but even if he's 70-80% of that he's going to be pretty good. Some form of those 2 are likely to be your future middle infield.

With the trade they added Preciado who as mentioned in the other thread will likely be on top 100 lists. He's probably a 3B in the future. At C the cubs farm system is stacked but if you just look at the age range of the players above you have Ronnier Quintero who was the best IFA catcher in the previous pool and you have Ethan Hearn who was the best prep catcher in the 2019 draft. In the outfield they also picked up Mena in the Darvish trade who's a legit CFer and got $2.2 mil in IFA so he's on a similar level to a lot of these guys. Brennen Davis probably also fits in this albeit a year or two older than these guys. Same goes for Roederer.

Point here is if you're looking toward the future, the cubs have a lot of talent in that age range. And this time it's not entirely just about the hitting. Kohl Franklin is starting to get a fair bit of buzz. He's also 21 like Davis so a bit older but pitching often takes a bit longer to develop anyways. Koen Moreno(2020 draft pick) and Tyler Schlaffer(2019 pick) were both over slot high school guys as well. Richard Gallardo was also one of the best pitchers in his IFA class at the time of signing.

Obviously, the cubs need to develop that talent. People are going to shit talk their pitching development but Franklin in particular has shown as of late they have done a much better job. And in terms of hitting, they've always developed decent hitters. It's just that the hitters had a baked in issue. The targeted guys who walked and had power and weren't as concerned about strike outs. But they have since moved on and most of the guys they target lately are people with 55 grade hit tools or better. So, you're talking guys who put more contact out there.

Given all what i've said, I think any additional trades will probably focus some what on players in this age range. In particular, they could still use a bit more young pitching depth with upside. I mean all teams could... but like I said this isn't 2012 all over again. There's some legitimate MLB arms that will come from this group.

 

[gopher72]

Really enjoy reading the in-depth assessments. OK fans, from a guy who doesn't know 1/10th of what u do. Just tell me how much confidence you have in current ownership/management to build this team back up to a pennant winner and how long will it take? Assuming of course, that Rickett's is committed to winning another pennant. Thx.

 

[beckdawg]

Really enjoy reading the in-depth assessments. OK fans, from a guy who doesn't know 1/10th of what u do. Just tell me how much confidence you have in current ownership/management to build this team back up to a pennant winner and how long will it take? Assuming of course, that Rickett's is committed to winning another pennant. Thx.

3 years maybe? Like a lot depends on how much development occurs. If the 18 year olds progress well they will start to be major league ready around 21-22. I also don't think this situation is the same as 2012 because they've already cleared a lot of bad contracts by not signing people the past few years.

 

[knoxville7]

Really enjoy reading the in-depth assessments. OK fans, from a guy who doesn't know 1/10th of what u do. Just tell me how much confidence you have in current ownership/management to build this team back up to a pennant winner and how long will it take? Assuming of course, that Rickett's is committed to winning another pennant. Thx.

ehh you know probably about as much as most on here.

the cubs gain financial flexibility for 2022 and especially 2024 when they will no longer have heywards contract or even Hendricks.

it all comes down to what do they do with the guys who will be FA’s after this year. Do they extend any of them?

I don’t think the cubs plan on legitimately competing for a WS again till 2024, when some of these young guys are getting ready to hit the big leagues, Happ should be in his prime, and they can use the ton of payroll they created to go after some big FA’s to fill in the gaps. By then, the world should hopefully be fully normal again and the revenue streams will be rolling again.

 

[CSF77]

Hoyer: Finances “Not The Focus” Of Darvish Trade
By Steve Adams | December 30, 2020 at 1:53pm CDT

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke with reporters on a Zoom call this morning, discussing a slew of topics in the wake of yesterday’s trade of Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini to the Padres. Notably, Hoyer claimed early in the process that the financial component of the trade was not the primary focus (Twitter link via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic):

We always have an eye on the finances of every deal. In 2020, obviously, some of those things are magnified. But that was not the focus. The focus of this deal was to try to move a player in the second half of his contract and acquire a lot of young talent.

It’s tough to sell that finances weren’t the focus of the deal, given that the Cubs cleared more than $50MM in salary (over the next three years) and didn’t receive any of the Padres’ top 10 farmhands. Three of the four minor leaguers acquired in the trade have yet to play their first professional game, thanks to the lack of a minor league season in 2020.
Nevertheless, Hoyer expressed confidence that the Cubs will have a competitive roster in 2021, although he simultaneously indicated that the organization won’t be a major player in free agency despite the money saved from the Darvish trade (Twitter links via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports and Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune).’
Hoyer also called a report suggesting that the Cubs were shopping Willson Contreras “fictional,” though he acknowledged he has received trade interest in his catcher and would not label him untouchable. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets that in spite of Hoyer’s denial, the Cubs have indeed discussed Contreras with other clubs “a lot” in the “recent past.” The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma added that the denial does not mean Contreras won’t be moved, though there haven’t been “substantive” talks in the past week or two.
The messaging throughout the call seems rather mixed. Hoyer has asserted that finances did not drive the trade, which most in the industry view as a salary dump. Free agency, meanwhile, will become a priority again only when the roster “has the bones” of a contender, which inherently implies that the current roster has something less than that (due, in no small part, to the Darvish trade itself). Yet the company line is that this team will compete in 2021, and the very notion of shopping Contreras was framed as ridiculous.
Also puzzling was Hoyer’s characterization of the Darvish return. While it’s standard to see an executive express excitement over the young talent acquired in exchange for a star player, as he did today, the newly minted Cubs president also suggested that this was the best package he could coax from the Padres (Twitter link via Rogers). Hoyer noted that San Diego counterpart A.J. Preller has steadfastly held onto MacKenzie Gore and most of his organization’s best prospects throughout a frenzy of trade activity dating back to August.
However, the very mention of taking the best return out there seems to imply that there was indeed pressure from ownership to make a deal. Taking the best deal available is only the course of action charted when taking no deal at all isn’t an option. Beyond that, if finances truly weren’t the main focus, one would assume the prospect return have been heightened by the Cubs offering to pay down more than the reported $3MM they’re sending to the Padres to cover Darvish’s remaining $62MM in guarantees.
It’s an unenviable spot for Hoyer or any executive to have to talk around a trade of this nature, but this morning’s press conference still felt more disconnected than it needed to be. At the end of the day, the Cubs’ message is that trade was not intended as a salary dump; that the team will still be competitive in 2021 without any notable free-agent additions to a roster that may not have the “bones” of a contender (and also just lost a Cy Young runner-up); and that initiating additional trades of established players (e.g. Contreras) is far-fetched.
The goal may have been to push back on the notion of a full-scale teardown, but the resulting depiction is something of a rudderless ship. Does this team view itself as a contender for 2021? If so — and if not for financial reasons — why trade its best pitcher while eschewing free-agent additions with the associated cost savings? If not, then why push back so strongly on trading Contreras?
The good news for the Cubs and their fans is that no one else in the National League Central seems to want to try to separate themselves from the pack. Given the inactivity throughout the division, the Cubs could still find themselves among the Central’s more competitive teams by default. Still, whether it happens this winter or next offseason — when each of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are slated to reach free agency — it’s clear that substantial change is on the horizon for the Cubs.

 

[CSF77]

So after another night of sleep, i have a few more thoughts. To some extent, I know it's sort of cliche to see prospects in a minor league system and pencil them into the MLB roster in 2-3 years. Players don't always develop how you'd like. With that being said however, I do think the cubs long term options become more interesting with the haul from the Darvish trade.

Consider for a moment that they have Howard who is likely to be a top 100 guy in a year or two if he develops. They will also have Cristian Hernandez who hasn't technically signed yet because of the july 1st issues with covid. But he's a 17 year old who has been compared to AROD and Manny Machado. Point blank, he's probably not that good but even if he's 70-80% of that he's going to be pretty good. Some form of those 2 are likely to be your future middle infield.

With the trade they added Preciado who as mentioned in the other thread will likely be on top 100 lists. He's probably a 3B in the future. At C the cubs farm system is stacked but if you just look at the age range of the players above you have Ronnier Quintero who was the best IFA catcher in the previous pool and you have Ethan Hearn who was the best prep catcher in the 2019 draft. In the outfield they also picked up Mena in the Darvish trade who's a legit CFer and got $2.2 mil in IFA so he's on a similar level to a lot of these guys. Brennen Davis probably also fits in this albeit a year or two older than these guys. Same goes for Roederer.

Point here is if you're looking toward the future, the cubs have a lot of talent in that age range. And this time it's not entirely just about the hitting. Kohl Franklin is starting to get a fair bit of buzz. He's also 21 like Davis so a bit older but pitching often takes a bit longer to develop anyways. Koen Moreno(2020 draft pick) and Tyler Schlaffer(2019 pick) were both over slot high school guys as well. Richard Gallardo was also one of the best pitchers in his IFA class at the time of signing.

Obviously, the cubs need to develop that talent. People are going to shit talk their pitching development but Franklin in particular has shown as of late they have done a much better job. And in terms of hitting, they've always developed decent hitters. It's just that the hitters had a baked in issue. The targeted guys who walked and had power and weren't as concerned about strike outs. But they have since moved on and most of the guys they target lately are people with 55 grade hit tools or better. So, you're talking guys who put more contact out there.

Given all what i've said, I think any additional trades will probably focus some what on players in this age range. In particular, they could still use a bit more young pitching depth with upside. I mean all teams could... but like I said this isn't 2012 all over again. There's some legitimate MLB arms that will come from this group.

RANK	PLAYER	POSITION	TEAM	LEVEL	ETA	AGE	HEIGHT / WEIGHT	BATS	THROWS
1	Brailyn Marquez	LHP	Chicago Cubs	MLB	2021	21	6' 4" / 185 lbs	L	L
2	Brennen Davis	OF	Chicago Cubs	A (Full)	2022	21	6' 4" / 175 lbs	R	R
3	Miguel Amaya	C	Criollos de Caguas	-	2021	21	6' 2" / 230 lbs	R	R
4	Ed Howard	SS	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2024	19	6' 2" / 185 lbs	R	R
5	Cole Roederer	OF	Chicago Cubs	A (Full)	2022	21	6' 0" / 175 lbs	L	L
6	Adbert Alzolay	RHP	Chicago Cubs	MLB	2020	25	6' 1" / 208 lbs	R	R
7	Kohl Franklin	RHP	Chicago Cubs	A (Full)	2022	21	6' 4" / 190 lbs	R	R
8	Ryan Jensen	RHP	Chicago Cubs	A (Short)	2022	23	6' 0" / 180 lbs	R	R
9	Chase Strumpf	2B	Chicago Cubs	A (Full)	2022	22	6' 1" / 191 lbs	R	R
10	Reginald Preciado	SS	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2024	17	6' 4" / 185 lbs	S	R
11	Owen Caissie	OF	San Diego Padres	ROK	2024	18	6' 4" / 190 lbs	L	R
12	Burl Carraway	LHP	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2022	21	6' 0" / 173 lbs	L	L
13	Christopher Morel	3B	Chicago Cubs	MLB	2022	21	6' 0" / 140 lbs	R	R
14	Cory Abbott	RHP	Chicago Cubs	MLB	2020	25	6' 2" / 220 lbs	R	R
15	Riley Thompson	RHP	Chicago Cubs	A (Full)	2022	24	6' 3" / 205 lbs	L	R
16	Ismael Mena	OF	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2024	18	6' 3" / 185 lbs	L	L
17	Yeison Santana	SS	San Diego Padres	ROK	2023	20	5' 11" / 170 lbs	R	R
18	Ethan Hearn	C	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2023	20	6' 0" / 200 lbs	L	R
19	Ronnier Quintero	C	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2024	18	6' 0" / 175 lbs	L	R
20	Yovanny Cruz	RHP	Chicago Cubs	A (Adv)	2023	21	6' 1" / 190 lbs	R	R
21	Chris Clarke	RHP	Chicago Cubs	A (Short)	2022	22	6' 7" / 212 lbs	R	R
22	Michael McAvene	RHP	Chicago Cubs	A (Short)	2022	23	6' 3" / 210 lbs	R	R
23	Jordan Nwogu	OF	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2023	21	6' 3" / 235 lbs	R	R
24	Richard Gallardo	RHP	Chicago Cubs	A (Short)	2023	19	6' 1" / 187 lbs	R	R
25	Justin Steele	LHP	Chicago Cubs	MLB	2021	25	6' 2" / 205 lbs	L	L
26	Tyson Miller	RHP	Chicago Cubs	MLB	2020	25	6' 4" / 225 lbs	R	R
27	James Norwood	RHP	Chicago Cubs	MLB	2020	27	6' 2" / 215 lbs	R	R
28	Kevin Made	SS	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2024	18	6' 1" / 160 lbs	R	R
29	Rafael Morel	SS	Chicago Cubs	ROK	2023	19	5' 11" / 165 lbs	R	R
30	Keegan Thompson	RHP	Chicago Cubs	MLB	2021	25	6' 1" / 210 lbs	R	R

 

[CSF77]

Well with Jed ***** slapping the rumor on Contreras we can forget that stuff. I would still promote Amaya to catch under Ross this year. Going into the offseason I would consider doing a 1B/C swap with those 2 and let Rizzo go after a pay off deal elsewhere. It makes sense to get Contreras full time PA's and the ability to lessen his playing time as he ages. (Yes I would extend him.)

Not the rotation could prove to be interesting. I would be very tempted to run

Hendricks, Marquez, Davies, Alozay, Mills. This will end up one of the softest tossing rotations in baseball but you put 2 live arms in it hitters are going in with their bats slowed down by default.

I'm not going to guess with Bryant and Baez anymore. Fact is they do not have a starting quality 3B if Bryant moves on.


Shortstops

Javier Baez (29)
Carlos Correa (27)
Brandon Crawford (35)
Leury Garcia (31)
Jose Iglesias (32)
Francisco Lindor (28)
Miguel Rojas (33) — $5.5MM club option vests with 500 PAs in 2021 ($500K buyout)
Corey Seager (28)
Trevor Story (29)
Chris Taylor (31)


Third Basemen

Nolan Arenado (31) — can opt out of remaining five years, $164MM
Kris Bryant (30)
Matt Carpenter (36) — $18.5MM vesting option ($2MM buyout)
Eduardo Escobar (33)
Josh Harrison (34)
Jose Ramirez (29) — $11MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Kyle Seager (34) — $15MM club option (buyout size dependent on stats in 2020-21)
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30)



Bryant is the top 3B period. SS Javy is not. He might be behind Story also. So this needs to be addressed. Seeing how they are going deep at SS and have Nico right now resigning Bryant is a hard maybe.

 

[CSF77]

Looking at the system:

1. Marquez I would push into the rotation in S/T. If he can't hit the plate is where I would draw the line with him.
2. Davis At min Tenn. Iowa is a maybe. They could do 200 PA at Tenn/ 200 PA at Iowa then promote after the July firesale.
3. Amaya backing up Contreras. Give him one guy to work with. Most likely Marquez as they have worked together.
4. Howard MB. No need to rush job this.
5. Roederer I would let his production dictate his promotions. I see Tenn as his landing spot also but with Happ and Howard locked in there is no rush on him.
6. Alzolay. Starting pitcher on Cubs
7. Franklin Tenn rotation. No rush with him.
8. Jensen Little older than Franklin. I can see them pushing him up the chain this year. MB-Tenn this year and Iowa next.
9. Strumpf Waiting for minor league F/A.
10. Preciao MB with Howard. I'm guessing they will sort it out as they go.
11. Owen MB
12. Carraway This guy might get greenlighted out of ST. He has a live arm out of the pen and there is a clear need for a high leverage lefty in the pen.
13. Morel Iowa 3B. Not sold on him at all. I'm guessing that he is plan A or B depending on who you talk to in 2022.
14. Abbott I can see him succeeding Mills. Better stuff and they will need more raw talent in the rotation sooner than later.
15. Thompson will be like Jensen. Little older and they will push him up faster.
16. Mena MB
17. Santana MB 3 guys fighting over SS. I could see one going to CF or 3B. Howard by default would be the starting SS.
18. Hearn-MB I would rotate him and the next guy C/1B. Get used to the gig.
19. Quintero-MB
20. Cruz Tenn or Iowa depending on if Jed starts to load up Iowa with injury relief scrubs. Most likely will as that is his MO.
21. Clarke Tenn
22. McAvene South Bend
23. Nwogu South Bend

The rest are not worth posting. Some carry over and will be injury relief for the Cubs pitching core. Made and Morel are filler level types. So rough prediction going in.