Here’s a detailed analysis of Burden. I’ll include some highlights.
“Most of you are old enough to remember that
A.J. Brown was a slot receiver at Ole Miss and
Justin Jefferson manned the slot at LSU. Analysts underrated both players based on their roles, failing to adequately document their skills that transcend the results.
Tracking production, breakout seasons, route success, and draft capital are all valuable layers of studying a player.
If you're not analyzing the processes of releases, route stems, route breaks, uncovering against defenders, and man-to-man routes vs. zone routes, there's a significant risk of missing the underlying foundation of what helps us project success for a player.
With a large enough sample, data analysis can gloss over this missing context and sometimes get more right than wrong and proclaim success. Analysts hope these processes are baked into the results. When they are, they don't have to understand the tools of wide receiver play that make or break the player's game.
This approach is good enough to allow you to color within the lines of safe decision-making because a large enough sample can encompass enough "good play" to bake the process into the results. When you follow safe decision-making, you're less likely to be a big loser in fantasy football.
If you stay within the lines too much and don't consider compelling scenarios to step outside, you're also less likely to be a big winner. There are areas of the draft where it's safer to avoid the consensus because everyone is thinking alike. In competitive endeavors, you win by fitting in.
Luther Burden III's data may scream dink-and-dunk and/or gadget archetypes like Robinson,
Mecole Hardman, and Tavon Austin, but you might as well have seen smoke on Instagram while scanning your phone during previews in a movie theater and screamed
FIRE!!!! None of these three gadgets had complete games with routes or at the point of the catch.
Luther Burden III is a far more complete route runner than characterized, and his speed will translate to the vertical game. Burden demonstrated position-specific techniques and concepts on film that some data analysts couldn't quantify due to sample size, but these skills led to route success beyond the gadget game.
- He repeatedly beats cornerbacks aligned at the line of scrimmage on vertical routes.
- He stacks (cuts off their paths to control the route) defenders early or late in routes.
- He uses effective changes in pacing and takes angles to enforce a defender's position to set up breaks.
- He uses his head and eyes at the top of routes to bait defenders playing over the top.
- His breaks are tight, sharp, and have the snap to gain angles of separation that defenders can't cut off.
- He can drop his weight into breaks against tight coverage, and it leads to effective separation.
These are techniques that receivers like Luther Burden III don't perform by accident and occasionally get right once. These aren't false positives based on the study of results. These are true positives based on the study of the process.
Luther Burden III's route skills, speed, ability to adjust with his quarterback, and pass-tracking make him a legitimate intermediate and vertical threat.”
More at this link:
Luther Burden III is a compelling candidate to become the most productive rookie fantasy receiver in 2025. Matt Waldman explains why.
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