Stuff I think I've seen that freaks me out about Trubs

[botfly10]

Look, I have by no means come to the conclusion that Trubs definitely is going to fail or suck or bust or whatever. He still has a long ways to go in his growth process and time to correct shit. But I have seen enough to be scared. There are signs that his development is not going well (besides stats) and its got me freaked out.

Here is some shit I am pretty sure I have seen:


- Fucking up deep throws by trying to hard to look off defenders - I have seen this 3 (maybe 4 times) in the last 2 games. Trubs looks one way to move safeties then snaps his eyes to the other side and throws instantly. This is a skill Trubs has to develop, but it seems like he has been antsy when coming back and throwing before reading the WR resulting in poor ball placement or just flat out missing. This has been most evident on intermediate to deep sideline throws, tho I did see him fuck up at least 1 short throw to the flat this way.

- Bad reads on the option - Bizarre thing happened in Cardinals game. Trubs never kept the ball on an option play and at least 3 times this was the wrong read. I guess I can't be sure the plays were really options. I suppose they could have been hard call run plays with an option look to help slow defenders, but I kinda don't think so. And Trubs had some fucking huge lanes if he had kept the ball. By the end of the game, the D was ignoring Trubs on option plays and just keying on the HB.

- Panic against pressure - Everyone saw this. Looked like Rex back there. Trubs eyes dropping, pulling the ball in and bouncing around at any hint of pressure. This is a regression. He has been getting worse in the area. Used to be more consistent keeping his eye down field against pressure.

- Pre-snap failure against blitz - Imo, most of the problems against the blitz are likely pre-snap failures. Trubs is failing to identify the blitz pre-snap. He is not checking out of plays that are doomed to fail against a 5 or 6 man rush. He is not calling hot routes. He is generally failing with pre-snap adjustments.

- Accuracy problems - This is the big one imo. Trubs is missing too many throws. Throws with a clean pocket and open WR. Specifically, Trubs has shown huge problems with hitting intermediate drag and seam routes. And these are a staple in the Nagy/Chiefs offense - so many of the plays scheme to free receiver on a 15-20 yard cross or drag route (usually Burton). The plays were all the sudden there is a free receiver wide open, running at like a 45 deg angle about 15 yards deep, that if hit in stride is gon get 30 or more yards. Same concept Packers gash the bears with all the time. Trubs doesn't see these or flat out misses the throw when he does. And this is a fundamental concept in this scheme. Add in the inaccuracy on deep throws and we could have a big fucking problem. This is the one that is hard to brush of as just experience.

- General lack of poise? I don't know about this one, but it would make sense as the root of all the other problems. Does Trubs just flat out not have enough poise? Is there some level of panic happening every time the ball snaps? I don't think there is definitive evidence either way on this one yet, but there is enough to make you wonder.

EDIT some stuff I forgot:

- Lack of Awareness of first down marker - There have been maybe 4-5 catches on 3rd down that were like half a yard short of the first down. Those are probably on the WR running a dumb fuck route, but Trubs should be on them for that. More importantly tho, has anyone noticed Trubs seems to have no idea where the first down is when he runs this year? Its happened at least 3 times I can remember where he runs and slides less than a yard short of the first down. That is some infuriating shit and something we did not see last year.

 

[SugarWalls]

The accuracy problems are my biggest concern. Lots of the other things like reading a defense, looking off defender, picking up the blitz... that should all come with practice and experience.

Missing wide open receivers with a clean pocket is an issue. I feel like we have seen him throw accurately so I wonder if he is just nervous, or if the moment is too big for him?

 

[botfly10]

Another problem - It looks to me like Nagy is gutting his scheme to accommodate Trubs. Notice how the majority of Trubs completions are to receivers that are stopped and facing him or are coming back to him? Thats not on accident, though it is contrary to a scheme that thrives on YAC opportunities. People cry about all the screens and dumps, but those are being used to bandage Trub's problems.

 

[botfly10]

The accuracy problems are my biggest concern. Lots of the other things like reading a defense, looking off defender, picking up the blitz... that should all come with practice and experience.

Missing wide open receivers with a clean pocket is an issue. I feel like we have seen him throw accurately so I wonder if he is just nervous, or if the moment is too big for him?

that is literally exactly what I said

 

[Beast15]

He has to get his footwork cleaned up.... Stat.

 

[SugarWalls]

that is literally exactly what I said

I’m agreeing with you. Are you that grumpy that you can’t even handle that or just confused?

 

[Alpha]

One problem I see is that Mitch is running for his life instead of stepping into the pocket, he runs when he doesn't need to run, and he doesn't run when he needs to!

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

that is literally exactly what I said

lol. And you said nothing that hasn't been said a hundred times already as well.

 

[WindyCity]

We just need to hit the 2-3 lay up throws that he is booting every game. Those are the difference. I am not sure if they can design the play to calm him down or whether they can change his footwork to keep him from air mailing the throw.

No idea.

 

[HeHateMe]

Look, I have by no means come to the conclusion that Trubs definitely is going to fail or suck or bust or whatever. He still has a long ways to go in his growth process and time to correct shit. But I have seen enough to be scared. There are signs that his development is not going well (besides stats) and its got me freaked out.

Here is some shit I am pretty sure I have seen:


- Fucking up deep throws by trying to hard to look off defenders - I have seen this 3 (maybe 4 times) in the last 2 games. Trubs looks one way to move safeties then snaps his eyes to the other side and throws instantly. This is a skill Trubs has to develop, but it seems like he has been antsy when coming back and throwing before reading the WR resulting in poor ball placement or just flat out missing. This has been most evident on intermediate to deep sideline throws, tho I did see him fuck up at least 1 short throw to the flat this way.

- Bad reads on the option - Bizarre thing happened in Cardinals game. Trubs never kept the ball on an option play and at least 3 times this was the wrong read. I guess I can't be sure the plays were really options. I suppose they could have been hard call run plays with an option look to help slow defenders, but I kinda don't think so. And Trubs had some fucking huge lanes if he had kept the ball. By the end of the game, the D was ignoring Trubs on option plays and just keying on the HB.

- Panic against pressure - Everyone saw this. Looked like Rex back there. Trubs eyes dropping, pulling the ball in and bouncing around at any hint of pressure. This is a regression. He has been getting worse in the area. Used to be more consistent keeping his eye down field against pressure.

- Pre-snap failure against blitz - Imo, most of the problems against the blitz are likely pre-snap failures. Trubs is failing to identify the blitz pre-snap. He is not checking out of plays that are doomed to fail against a 5 or 6 man rush. He is not calling hot routes. He is generally failing with pre-snap adjustments.

- Accuracy problems - This is the big one imo. Trubs is missing too many throws. Throws with a clean pocket and open WR. Specifically, Trubs has shown huge problems with hitting intermediate drag and seam routes. And these are a staple in the Nagy/Chiefs offense - so many of the plays scheme to free receiver on a 15-20 yard cross or drag route (usually Burton). The plays were all the sudden there is a free receiver wide open, running at like a 45 deg angle about 15 yards deep, that if hit in stride is gon get 30 or more yards. Same concept Packers gash the bears with all the time. Trubs doesn't see these or flat out misses the throw when he does. And this is a fundamental concept in this scheme. Add in the inaccuracy on deep throws and we could have a big fucking problem. This is the one that is hard to brush of as just experience.

- General lack of poise? I don't know about this one, but it would make sense as the root of all the other problems. Does Trubs just flat out not have enough poise? Is there some level of panic happening every time the ball snaps? I don't think there is definitive evidence either way on this one yet, but there is enough to make you wonder.

Nice thoughtful and well layed out analysis., botfly, i couldnt really agree more. The offensive scheme pandering should be a plus for nagy, but i sure hope it doesnt last all season.

Also thanks for keeping the swears out of your thread title. Scholarly AND gentlemanly.

Thank you so much.

 

[Les Grossman]

I'm going to guess that this offense is too complex for Trubisky, at least for now. He looked much better in a much more simple offense last year, even though he had many less attempts in general.

It seemed to me that even last year he kept his eyes down field even when scrambling, but this year he gets so uncomfortable in the pocket and looks to run. Seeing as how he hasn't taken a beating like David Carr or even Cutler ever did, I can' think of another logical reason for his regression other than he can't process this complex offense.

 

[botfly10]

I'm going to guess that this offense is too complex for Trubisky, at least for now. He looked much better in a much more simple offense last year, even though he had many less attempts in general.

It seemed to me that even last year he kept his eyes down field even when scrambling, but this year he gets so uncomfortable in the pocket and looks to run. Seeing as how hasn't taken a beating like David Carr or even Cutler ever did, I can' think of another logical reason for his regression other than he can't process this complex offense.

I could see that. This would be a good thing, right? Cause it is something that definitely improve with time, right?

 

[botfly10]

We just need to hit the 2-3 lay up throws that he is booting every game. Those are the difference. I am not sure if they can design the play to calm him down or whether they can change his footwork to keep him from air mailing the throw.

No idea.

Yeah, I am with you. I can accept everything else as growing pains. But when the play is there and he sees it and then just flat out misses the throw - that is infuriating.

And I saw signs of frustration from receivers yesterday as well.

 

[PrideisBears]

I'm going to guess that this offense is too complex for Trubisky, at least for now. He looked much better in a much more simple offense last year, even though he had many less attempts in general.

It seemed to me that even last year he kept his eyes down field even when scrambling, but this year he gets so uncomfortable in the pocket and looks to run. Seeing as how hasn't taken a beating like David Carr or even Cutler ever did, I can' think of another logical reason for his regression other than he can't process this complex offense.

Im starting to think this as well. Unfortunately it reminds me of what Fox alluded too in an article this year

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nf...ff&p.bgc1m=%230964bf&p.bgc2m=%23053a74&sr=amp

 

[Myk]

Oh come on. I figured this would all be stuff I could agree with from you.
But looks off defenders too hard??? So you would be OK if he stared down WRs? This bed is too hard, this bed is too soft, this bed is just right?
If that is going on he's learning, you learn by doing. I guarantee this from learning snap shooting archery, you don't learn to hit your target with no aiming by practicing aiming.

If that's the thing that Nagy changed that took away his accuracy from last year I'm all for it because I understand what's going on, how it works and how well it works.
It especially works well with thrown items because there's already no option to actually aim. The process is already in play, it's just a matter of speeding it up. No you don't need to stare at a spot before throwing a ball to hit the spot reliably, it just takes practice. The staring really does nothing expect slow you down (and in this case causes interceptions). Equally, yes the staring does let you hit the spot, it's just not required.
If Mitch has that ability then Pace's decision to draft him will be exceptional.
If that is what's going on I'm betting he was good in practice and now it just needs to click on the field and that's what Nagy is talking about when he says that.

Everything else I can agree with or at least I question if it's part of the problem.
And I'll add, when he rifles balls in tight spots that reminds me too much of Cutler's belief that nothing can beat his arm.

 

[Yogi]

In general, I'm ok with escaping the pocket to extend the play, but STOP RUNNING STRAIGHT BACKWARDS. You're not going to outrun a DE/LB who has a 3 step head start.

Sometimes when they've got you, they've got you, and you need to drop and eat the sack if you can't escape by sliding forward or sideways. Cost 17yds(!) and an easy(er) 3pts yesterday.

 

[botfly10]

Im starting to think this as well. Unfortunately it reminds me of what Fox alluded too in an article this year

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nf...ff&p.bgc1m=%230964bf&p.bgc2m=%23053a74&sr=amp

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ears-challenge-will-be-trubiskys-passing-game

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/john-fox-weighs-matt-nagys-bears

 

[bearmick]

Big time on the poise too. He has absolutely zero poise.

 

[botfly10]

Oh come on. I figured this would all be stuff I could agree with from you.
But looks off defenders too hard??? So you would be OK if he stared down WRs? This bed is too hard, this bed is too soft, this bed is just right?
If that is going on he's learning, you learn by doing. I guarantee this from learning snap shooting archery, you don't learn to hit your target with no aiming by practicing aiming.

If that's the thing that Nagy changed that took away his accuracy from last year I'm all for it because I understand what's going on, how it works and how well it works.
It especially works well with thrown items because there's already no option to actually aim. The process is already in play, it's just a matter of speeding it up. No you don't need to stare at a spot before throwing a ball to hit the spot reliably, it just takes practice. The staring really does nothing expect slow you down (and in this case causes interceptions). Equally, yes the staring does let you hit the spot, it's just not required.
If Mitch has that ability then Pace's decision to draft him will be exceptional.
If that is what's going on I'm betting he was good in practice and now it just needs to click on the field and that's what Nagy is talking about when he says that.

Everything else I can agree with or at least I question if it's part of the problem.
And I'll add, when he rifles balls in tight spots that reminds me too much of Cutler's belief that nothing can beat his arm.

The look off thing is real. I'm not imagining things. You can see it if you watch. Its just a timing issue and Nagy himself named it as the culprit in the pic against the seahawks. The announced also mentioned it during the seahawks game and again against the cardinals. Just cause you didn't notice doesn't mean its not real.

But to be clear - I don't fault him for trying to master the look-off. Just putting it on the list of stuff he has to clean up is all.

 

[BearClaw55]

Another problem - It looks to me like Nagy is gutting his scheme to accommodate Trubs. Notice how the majority of Trubs completions are to receivers that are stopped and facing him or are coming back to him? Thats not on accident, though it is contrary to a scheme that thrives on YAC opportunities. People cry about all the screens and dumps, but those are being used to bandage Trub's problems.

I stated this after the Packers game when people were bashing Nagy’s play calls. I could clearly see that Nagy was handicapped by Trubisky’s lack of execution.