Texas Rangers @ Chicago Cubs April 16th-18th

[dabynsky]

Final thoughts before I go to bed:
*I was so wrong about the bullpen. I thought Camp, Russell, Fujikawa, and second half Marmol would be a solid pen, but only Russell has performed up to expectations. Bowden and Rondon have been pleasant surprises, but they aren't anything you count on.

*Given the struggles from the pen, why was Sveum so quick to lift Wood? I understand not wanting to expose him, but the trust in him has got to be a lot higher than anyone not named James Russell right now.

*I still believe in the platoons. Scott Hairston is a good hitter despite the slow start. Schierholtz is red hot right now, but I really doubt he has learned to hit lefties. The Cubs have faced some pretty tough lefties in Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Minor, Madison Bumgarner, and Derek Holland. I think over the course of the season it will even out because Schierholtz isn't going to hit .400 the whole way especially if he was playing against lefties.

*Tease rallies are both fun and sucky. I appreciate that this team is still fighting, but it would be nice to have something prior to the final out(s).

 

[CSF77]

Feldman is a loss every time up. He may get 5 IP next time out. Cross your fingers on that one. Jackson needs to work on getting the hitter to put the ball into play more. 16 IP 16 H 10 BB 20 SO. Avg a tick over 5 IP per. He just needs to trust his D and throw strikes vs trying to punch out guys every time. Feldman is just not that good. Can't wait for Garza to get back so they can absorb a 6 mil contract.

 

[mountsalami]

Scott Hairston is a good hitter

Actually he isn't. But your case may be a good one on this team of mostly bench players.

 

[CSF77]

Final thoughts before I go to bed:
*I was so wrong about the bullpen. I thought Camp, Russell, Fujikawa, and second half Marmol would be a solid pen, but only Russell has performed up to expectations. Bowden and Rondon have been pleasant surprises, but they aren't anything you count on.

*Given the struggles from the pen, why was Sveum so quick to lift Wood? I understand not wanting to expose him, but the trust in him has got to be a lot higher than anyone not named James Russell right now.

*I still believe in the platoons. Scott Hairston is a good hitter despite the slow start. Schierholtz is red hot right now, but I really doubt he has learned to hit lefties. The Cubs have faced some pretty tough lefties in Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Minor, Madison Bumgarner, and Derek Holland. I think over the course of the season it will even out because Schierholtz isn't going to hit .400 the whole way especially if he was playing against lefties.

*Tease rallies are both fun and sucky. I appreciate that this team is still fighting, but it would be nice to have something prior to the final out(s).

Well the logic fails as they are not platooning Rizzo and he is hitting under .200. Splits wise in 265 career AB his BA is .285. I am under the opinion that they should do what they can to generate runs. That is it. If one guy is hitting .070 then put him as a PH and keep the hot stick in there. Not to forget they are losing one of the best RF arms in baseball for zero production at the plate. Defeats the purpose of having a platoon. Scotty has no arm. Period. On the pen. Camp did a good job last year but he has limited talent. Add to it they were struggling vs a LH that gassed then seeing a RH arm was a boost they needed. I'm in the opinion that they need to lean on Russell more to get from the starter to whom ever the closer will be. Marmol also. Seems he is more suited for the 8th. So in save situations Russell 7th Marmol 8th and see what shakes out in the 9th.

 

[dabynsky]

Actually he isn't. But your case may be a good one on this team of mostly bench players.

He has posted above average production by OPS+ four out of the past five years. He isn't a world beater, but he can hit better than what he has shown in a handful of at bats this year. He has a track record.

 

[dabynsky]

Well the logic fails as they are not platooning Rizzo and he is hitting under .200. Splits wise in 265 career AB his BA is .285. I am under the opinion that they should do what they can to generate runs. That is it. If one guy is hitting .070 then put him as a PH and keep the hot stick in there. Not to forget they are losing one of the best RF arms in baseball for zero production at the plate. Defeats the purpose of having a platoon. Scotty has no arm. Period.

There are only so many places where you can platoon. I'd take my chances with Rizzo given Schierholtz's track record against lefties. It has been four games, and Hairston has a grand total of 17 PA in a Cub uniform. I trust what he has shown over 2412 PAs more than the 17 this year.

On the pen. Camp did a good job last year but he has limited talent. Add to it they were struggling vs a LH that gassed then seeing a RH arm was a boost they needed. I'm in the opinion that they need to lean on Russell more to get from the starter to whom ever the closer will be. Marmol also. Seems he is more suited for the 8th. So in save situations Russell 7th Marmol 8th and see what shakes out in the 9th.

Camp really made me believe that his 2011 was a fluke given his solid run, but it certainly appears like he is toast at this point. Rondon and Bowden are probably the bridge guys right now to Russell, and Marmol is pretty much by default the closer right now until Fujikawa gets back. Not really much that can be done on this front because nothing in Iowa has emerged yet.

 

[CSF77]

Best closer in the system is in AA in Frank Bautista. They held him back as he should be in Iowa right now. Not sure on Bowden to be honest. I like that he can go more then an inning and with Feldman avg less then 5 he is nice for mop up work. I'd give Gregg and Loe a shot at the 9th at this point. Marmol no. He was seeing success as a set up and at this point if it ain't broke.... Also I'm not sure where you are getting your info from but like I posted Schierholtz's career BA vs LH is .285. Rizzo is getting full time and he is hitting below .200 and his splits from last year suggest he needs a platoon. Again it just sounds like the goal is not to win games but to. 1: build up Rizzo into a F/T player. 2. Dr up some stats on Nate to up his trade value. Sad thing is if they let him play evey day then it could up his level even more. F/T players with a canon in RF is big return value. Doesn't, work out they still have the platoon. What I would do to be honest is platoon 1B with Scott until Rizzo gets hot and Nate cools off then switch. Right now the numbers suggest this.

 

[dabynsky]

Best closer in the system is in AA in Frank Bautista. They held him back as he should be in Iowa right now. Not sure on Bowden to be honest. I like that he can go more then an inning and with Feldman avg less then 5 he is nice for mop up work. I'd give Gregg and Loe a shot at the 9th at this point. Marmol no. He was seeing success as a set up and at this point if it ain't broke....

Bullpens are ridiculously volatile. I don't have faith in anyone down there, but I am guessing Marmol gets a shot here sooner than later. If he closes it out he will get another, and perhaps he can relock in like he did in the second half last year. I don't have a ton of faith of that happening, but I think the odds are higher than Loe or Gregg turning into legitimate closers.

Also I'm not sure where you are getting your info from but like I posted Schierholtz's career BA vs LH is .285. Rizzo is getting full time and he is hitting below .200 and his splits from last year suggest he needs a platoon. Again it just sounds like the goal is not to win games but to. 1: build up Rizzo into a F/T player. 2. Dr up some stats on Nate to up his trade value. Sad thing is if they let him play evey day then it could up his level even more. F/T players with a canon in RF is big return value. Doesn't, work out they still have the platoon. What I would do to be honest is platoon 1B with Scott until Rizzo gets hot and Nate cools off then switch. Right now the numbers suggest this.

When I made the comment I was thinking about Schierholtz's 2012 in which he hit .175/.206/.238 against left handers or 2011 in which he posted a .234/.265/.297 slash line. I will grant you that .285 career batting average doesn't mean that he is completely inept against left handers, but lets dig a little deeper than batting average in his career numbers.

Nate Schierholtz's career line against righties is .269/.323/.422 hits a home run once every 49 PA
Nate Schierholtz's career line against lefties is .285/.317/.391 hits a home run once every 98 PA

Schierholtz despite hitting for a higher BA against lefties gets on base less and hits for considerable less power. There is a reason why many people have suggest platooning Scheirholtz based on career track record. That said at this point I could be convinced that letting him start against a few lefties to see if the hot streak continues at the expense of Dave Sappelt because this is Scott Hairston's career line against lefties:
.274/.323/.498 with a home run every 23 PA

I am not giving up on that track record due to 16 PA and 4 starts.

Now as far as Rizzo goes he is actually hitting better agaisnt lefties this season than righties at this point.
.156/.229/.438
.214/.421/.368

If it is about winning today than I don't see why you make a switch there when he is actually doing better against left handers at this point.

 

[Mr. Cub]

So, all you Chicagoans, how does the weather look in the Wrigleyville area? Do you think we will get a game in tonight?

 

[dabynsky]

Game called. No makeup announced, but a lot of speculation that May 6th will be the date.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Fuck me. Only thing I was looking forward to today.

I guess I will just watch and see if the Jazz can get into the Playoffs.

 

[85Bears4life]

Castro with 2 walks...

Rizzo with a 2 run HR

Soriano with a solo shot

5-0 cubs lead

 

[dabynsky]

Now get through five boys.

 

[dabynsky]

Very nice game all around from the Cubs.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Best game of the year so far.

It's nice to see how solid Villanueva is so far in the early going

 

[SilenceS]

Best game of the year so far.

It's nice to see how solid Villanueva is so far in the early going

A Brewers fan just wrote on another board that Villanueva starts strong, but struggles in the second half. He said at least for the Brewers. He said he has good talent. Its just he could never harness it. Lets hope the Cubs help him with that.

 

[mountsalami]

They finally played a solid complete ballgame.

Villanueva has been looking very good.

 

[CSF77]

They finally played a solid complete ballgame.

Villanueva has been looking very good.

I agree.

 

[dabynsky]

A Brewers fan just wrote on another board that Villanueva starts strong, but struggles in the second half. He said at least for the Brewers. He said he has good talent. Its just he could never harness it. Lets hope the Cubs help him with that.

Yeah that has been documented a fair bit.

First half ERA-3.89
Second half ERA-4.57

Digging a little deeper his peripherals actually are pretty much the same except for a jump in home runs. His strikeout rate declines a little from 7.9 to 7.5. His BABIP is actually a little lower in the second half, .281 to .283. The difference really stems from the fact that Villanueva has given up 52 HR in the second half compared to 45 in the first half despite throwing nearly a hundred less innings.