What is this definition of "asset" that can seemingly be lost by winning games ?
The "asset" is a high draft pick that results in a prospect :fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap::fap:
Since everyone is convinced that drafting high is the only possible way of getting a good player, let's uncover the facts.
I will look at the top 10 picks in the draft from the years 2000-2009. A ten year period and should be enough time to have players at least reach the majors.
2000 - #1 overall pick, Adrian Gonzalez. Very solid, if not great, player. The only other players to get 300 or more major league AB's are Rocco Baldeli and Luis Montanez. Adam Johnson pitched in 9 major league games with a 10.25 ERA and Justin Wayne pitched in 26 games with a career 6.13 ERA. Five players never even reached the majors.
2001 - You have Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira. Mauer a great player, Teixeira above average for his career. Mark Prior could have been great if not for some bad breaks but he can't be seen as an above average major league player, but I will be generous and give him an average ranking. Gavin Floyd, I will give him an average ranking. Dewon Brazleton a 6.38 ERA in 63 games. John Van Benschoten 9.20 ERA in 26 games. Chris Burke .239 BA in 1267 games. All sucked, and three picks never made it to the majors.
2002 - You have Zack Greinke and Prince Fielder. Above average without a doubt. BJ Upton I will give an average ranking to. Bryan Bullington, Jeff Francis, Adam Loewen, Drew Meyer and Scott Moore were all below average players and two didn't make it.
2003 - I'll be generous and give Nick Markakis an above average rating since he has the highest career WAR, oh boy. Delmon Young, Richie Weeks, Tim Stauffer, Paul Maholm and John Danks will get average ranks. Ian Stewart gets a below average rating and three never made the majors.
2004 - Justin Verlander definitely gets an above average ranking. I'll give Homer Bailey an average ranking. Phillip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Sowers, Chris Nelson and Thomas Diamond all below average and 2 never made the majors, including the #1 overall pick Matt Bush.
2005 - Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki, all above average players. No average players. Jeff Clement, Ricky Romero, Cameron Maybin and Mike Pelfrey below average and one player didn't make it.
2006 - Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum above average players. Brandon Morrow ill be generous and call average. Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller and Drew Stubbs below average and one player didn't make it.
2007 - David Price, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Weiters above average players. Ross Detwiler and Jarrod Parker average players. Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters, Daniel Moskos and Matt Laporta below average players and one player didn't make it.
2008 - Buster Posey above average player. Eric Hosmer and Pedro Alvarez average players. Brian Matusz, Kyle Skipworth, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham, Aaron Crow and Jason Castro below average and the #1 pick Tim Beckham hasn't made it to the majors.
2009 - Stephen Strasburg above average player. Zach Wheeler, Mike Minor, Mike Leake, and Jacob Turner average players as of now, have potential to be above average for their careers. Tony Sanchez, Drew Storen and Dustin Ackley below average and two players have yet to make it.
So my totals give me 20 above average players, 18 average players, 41 below average players and 21 have yet to make an appearance at the major league level.
Right now the Cubs have 4 'cost controlled' young players in Castro, Rizzo, Wood and Shark and people are saying that isn't near enough to start spending in FA and build around.
So I guess that means you would need to draft at 3-4 above average players before people think it would be wise to spend in FA.
Only problem is, on average, you would only get 2 above average players if you drafted in the top 10 for 10 straight seasons. That isn't enough.
Let's get crazy and say that the genius Theo and all this money put into scouting pays off and the Cubs draft twice as well as the historical facts show that you should draft and DO get all 4 above average players in that 10 year period. Great.
Not so fast.
What if you draft those players in years 1,3,6 and 10 of the ten year period??
Well by the time you have drafted your 4th player, the first player likely has already hit free agency and may not be in a hurry to stay with a team that just picked in the top 10 the last ten seasons and the player you drafted in year three could be approaching free agency so if you already arent back under that 4 above average player threshold to start spending in FA, you have a very small window unless you start hitting on even more of those top ten picks.
The odds of getting an above average player through the draft and minors is just so small that it is very, very difficult to be successful enough at it to maintain a steady supply of talent.
But that is just me not providing any facts again.
