He is defining great as making All-Pro. At QB, there is only a single All-Pro QB in a given year. So, the research was just to list all the NFL All-Pro QB's by year and state whether or not they made playoffs by what he determined to be their 3rd year as the primary starter. As noted in a post above, he's already moved that goalpost for Fields to make the forecast look worse for Fields relative to what he did for other guys in the list (ie, this year or bust when he has used criteria for others that would give Fields in to 2024)
It would be a bit easier to read if he just listed the All-Pro QB's rather than by year considering the number of repeats.
The actual list is 14 QB's going back '92 and the exception to the playoffs by year 3 to make the list was Gannon
- Randall Cunningham
- Steve Young (5 times)
- Brett Favre (2 times)
- Kurt Warner
- Peyton Manning (5 times)
- Rich Gannon
- Steve McNair
- Tom Brady (4 times)
- Drew Brees
- Aaron Rodgers (5 times so far)
- Cam Newton
- Matt Ryan
- Patrick Mahomes (2 times so far)
- Lamar Jackson
I don't necessarily disagree with the general premise. IMO, it would be more fair to say that Fields needs to take the team to the playoffs at least once while on his rookie contract so that you know he is the guy that can lead the team to the playoffs before giving him a huge 2nd contract. Especially with the money now involved with the QB position, that seems reasonable to me.
For those that actually watch the games and understand context, Fields's rookie year with Nagy was a complete shitshow and a case study in how to not handle developing a qb, imo. That should be considered a throwaway year. So, he is year 2 of this particular 3 year clock. I think he makes a big jump and I said elsewhere, I expect the team to be in the playoff hunt. Hard to say right now if they can actually make it this year, but that's why they play the games.