The Collapse

[TL1961]

But going at it from a needs perspective.

Jed will need a RH counter to PCA at CF. Harrison Bader will be on the market. Would make a decent platoon partner.

Bull pen:

Middle Relief: Reynaldo Lopez (30)* No Q offer to deal with. He has been up to 98MPH in the pen. City should know him well.

Closer: Josh Hader (30) I'm pretty sure SD will give a Q offer and Jed should accept it regardless.

Now the main issue will be getting full time PA to Morel and Canario.

One out of the box approach is moving Happ to 1B. He came up at 2B. Has played 3B so 1B should not be a reach and he ages into the position.

LF goes to Canario full time.

This opens up Morel to work on 3B for the off season.

If Morel is hopeless at 3B then a investment would be needed for 3B. Matt Chapman would be the prime target there and Morel continues as the prime DH.

Bellinger would end up forced into 1B full time on the Cubs and I'm no sure if that is the best opportunity for him in the market.

So you’re saying I should give up on hoping for Bellinger and resign myself to Morel and Happ at the corners?

Shoot me now!

 

[TL1961]

Well, I for one am glad they aren’t spending hundreds of millions on some guy named Ontani. Prudent to not spend that level of money on a total unknown, like I mean nobody has heard of this guy even. He could probably be had for a vets min contract

He’s allegedly better than Offtani.

 

[Bearcub13]

It is only 1 year of arbitration left. 2023 he made 23M so 25M would be his baseline and he could walk after the year.

So I would respectively pass on this trade. Jed IMO should focus on the bullpen first, Even before Bellinger.

Pitching always Trumps position players, always. You could have the 1927 Yankees on offense, but if you have no bullpen and inconsistent starters you ain't going nowhere...

 

[Bearcub13]

I can not remember a manager ever saying he had too many quality pitchers, ever....

 

[Castor76]

Pitching always Trumps position players, always. You could have the 1927 Yankees on offense, but if you have no bullpen and inconsistent starters you ain't going nowhere...

It's why I think they need to add a good starter regardless of if Stroman opts in and Hendricks is brought back. As I said earlier, The previous 2 mentioned pitchers will be gone after 2024. The staff will need a 3rd proven pitcher going forward and the pool is too deep in 23-24 to let pass.

I also don't think the 185M payroll limit is in any way real.

 

[CSF77]

So you’re saying I should give up on hoping for Bellinger and resign myself to Morel and Happ at the corners?

Shoot me now!

Tom Ricketts pretty much said that he wants Hendricks and Bellinger back. So you can expect a aggressive offseason to get Bellinger back. Why I posted 30M AAV. He will be 29 next year so I can see Jed inking him to a 300M deal.

Tom's willingness to spend was always my hick up in getting aggressive. But he pretty much stated his approach. He wants to extend players that have made a impact and he wants to main team to come up via the farm with a impact F/A added in.

That really comes down to Chapman. I personally would not target Candy again. This was a high point of a 102 wRC+ talent. You don't invest into a 3B that plays better 1B. Chapman makes the infield the top D one in baseball and it is not even close.

 

[CSF77]

It's why I think they need to add a good starter regardless of if Stroman opts in and Hendricks is brought back. As I said earlier, The previous 2 mentioned pitchers will be gone after 2024. The staff will need a 3rd proven pitcher going forward and the pool is too deep in 23-24 to let pass.

I also don't think the 185M payroll limit is in any way real.

I don't think that SP will end up a high priority.

Horton most likely starts in AA and moves to AAA after 10 starts. Then he is looking at late 2024 like Wicks was this year. It is the same trajectory with a higher talented pitcher.

Brown is a A or B guy. I would rather have A: In the pen this year and given the opportunity to compete for a spot in 2025.

So losing Stroman and Hendricks? Not really a big deal.

Add to it. That free agent class...

Shane Bieber (30)
Walker Buehler (30)
Corbin Burnes (30)
Max Fried (31)
Domingo German (32)
Tyler Glasnow (30)
Zack Wheeler (35)*

It might be the best one this decade for pitching.

 

[knoxville7]

Tom Ricketts pretty much said that he wants Hendricks and Bellinger back. So you can expect a aggressive offseason to get Bellinger back. Why I posted 30M AAV. He will be 29 next year so I can see Jed inking him to a 300M deal.

Tom's willingness to spend was always my hick up in getting aggressive. But he pretty much stated his approach. He wants to extend players that have made a impact and he wants to main team to come up via the farm with a impact F/A added in.

That really comes down to Chapman. I personally would not target Candy again. This was a high point of a 102 wRC+ talent. You don't invest into a 3B that plays better 1B. Chapman makes the infield the top D one in baseball and it is not even close.

You were the candy man’s biggest fan!! You were proposing giving him 20 million a year just a month ago. My god!

 

[Castor76]

I don't think that SP will end up a high priority.

Horton most likely starts in AA and moves to AAA after 10 starts. Then he is looking at late 2024 like Wicks was this year. It is the same trajectory with a higher talented pitcher.

Brown is a A or B guy. I would rather have A: In the pen this year and given the opportunity to compete for a spot in 2025.

So losing Stroman and Hendricks? Not really a big deal.

Add to it. That free agent class...

Shane Bieber (30)
Walker Buehler (30)
Corbin Burnes (30)
Max Fried (31)
Domingo German (32)
Tyler Glasnow (30)
Zack Wheeler (35)*

It might be the best one this decade for pitching.

Buehler and Bieber will be pitching for their FA lives next season. Injury knocks down their value unless they bounce back next season. Burnes and Fried are bona fides but Atlanta isn't shy to pay a guy and Milwaukee will have a butload of CBT space to keep Burnes. Glasnow is mid at best. Wheeler's not a bad shout for an older guy. German? Who are you trying to fool with that one? Guy has only pitched over 140 IP once and over 100 IP one other time.

The Cubs have 2 certified starters on the roster for after 2024. Odds are only 1 of the guys between Horton, Brown, Wicks, and Assad really hits as a starter. 24 is the year to push the CBT because the money coming off still leaves room to add for 25.

Stroman 23.67M
Hendricks 16M
Gomes 6M
Smiley 9.5M
Mancini 7M
Barnhart 3.25M
Bote 3M

That's about 68M off the books. If the Stroman, Hendricks, and Gomes options are picked up, the Cubs would have roughly 53M before the CBT. If they got Belli for 35M AAV, Candy for 15M AAV, and say Nola for 35M AAV, the 24 CBT would be about 32M over. With the increase in CBT and contracts coming off, it would be 41M in CBT room for 25. Of course arbitration will eat up some of that.

With their current contract structures, this team is set to compete 24-26. They can't wait and hope for 24. Whatever 3B the sign, if any, should probably only be a 2 year deal. Shaw is most likely ready to be up by then. You know which of the AAA Farm Arms should be legit by then, and you have the Corner OF positions ready to be manned by more farm talent. At that point, it's just a matter of keeping the farm fed and healthy.

 

[TL1961]

Tom Ricketts pretty much said that he wants Hendricks and Bellinger back. So you can expect a aggressive offseason to get Bellinger back. Why I posted 30M AAV. He will be 29 next year so I can see Jed inking him to a 300M deal.

Tom's willingness to spend was always my hick up in getting aggressive. But he pretty much stated his approach. He wants to extend players that have made a impact and he wants to main team to come up via the farm with a impact F/A added in.

That really comes down to Chapman. I personally would not target Candy again. This was a high point of a 102 wRC+ talent. You don't invest into a 3B that plays better 1B. Chapman makes the infield the top D one in baseball and it is not even close.

The Cards have Arenado, Goldschmidt, two options at second who have both won gold gloves and a SS prospect who is very good defensively.

I’d agree that Cubs infield would be strong but ‘not even close’ is crazy.

 

[knoxville7]

The Cards have Arenado, Goldschmidt, two options at second who have both won gold gloves and a SS prospect who is very good defensively.

I’d agree that Cubs infield would be strong but ‘not even close’ is crazy.

For now they do lol

Chapman, Swanson, and Hoerner are great defensively. All comes down to who is playing first. If it’s bellinger, I’d say the cubs infield is every bit as good defensively as the cards and any other tbh

But for right now, I’m holding off since Chapman has never been a cub and the odds he ends up one are low still and since bellinger is also a FA.

Cubs up the middle is as good as anyone else, though

 

[Bearcub13]

It's why I think they need to add a good starter regardless of if Stroman opts in and Hendricks is brought back. As I said earlier, The previous 2 mentioned pitchers will be gone after 2024. The staff will need a 3rd proven pitcher going forward and the pool is too deep in 23-24 to let pass.

I also don't think the 185M payroll limit is in any way real.

I will be the outlier here, at this point in his career Hendricks is no better than 5th or 6th starter. When a team is attempting to transition from good team to competetive post-season team, a stable of five good or very good starters is necessary. The top three wiil be the designated starters and the next two will be emergency starters and long relief, before you even get to the pen.

 

[TL1961]

For now they do lol

Chapman, Swanson, and Hoerner are great defensively. All comes down to who is playing first. If it’s bellinger, I’d say the cubs infield is every bit as good defensively as the cards and any other tbh

But for right now, I’m holding off since Chapman has never been a cub and the odds he ends up one are low still and since bellinger is also a FA.

Cubs up the middle is as good as anyone else, though

The Cardinals have Arenado and the Cardinals have Goldschmidt why would I not count them as part of their infield?

If the Cardinals did not have them, I would not be counting them as part of the Cardinals infield.

 

[TL1961]

I will be the outlier here, at this point in his career Hendricks is no better than 5th or 6th starter. When a team is attempting to transition from good team to competetive post-season team, a stable of five good or very good starters is necessary. The top three wiil be the designated starters and the next two will be emergency starters and long relief, before you even get to the pen.

Why would a teams fourth and fifth best starters be considered emergency starters when a team needs five starters?

 

[CSF77]

The Cards have Arenado, Goldschmidt, two options at second who have both won gold gloves and a SS prospect who is very good defensively.

I’d agree that Cubs infield would be strong but ‘not even close’ is crazy.

Chapman 5.7 DEF
Swanson broke 20 DEF
Horner 11.9

Bellinger held a 5 DRS at 1B. CF -2. So you can argue it improves as a full time 1B. 3-5 DEF maybe.

So you could guess a baseline 42 DEF.

Goldschmidt. -8.3 DEF
Arenado. 3.5 DEF
Winn -0.8
Edman 7.2

Not even in the same world.

St. Louis Cardinals Stats | FanGraphs Baseball

All the 2018 Cardinals batting and pitching stats, standings, depth charts, roster notes, schedule/results, news and analysis.

www.fangraphs.com

 

[CSF77]

But like I said. Spend 300M on Bellinger and 100M on Chapman. That is a good starting point. Then extend Alzolay and Steele.

2024-25 will have a few ace level starters and Jed would have Hendricks and Stroman dropping off at the same time. 40M is what it is will cost Tom in 2024 for both. With Steele's increase you can look at 30M to invest into a co ace.

 

[TL1961]

Chapman 5.7 DEF
Swanson broke 20 DEF
Horner 11.9

Bellinger held a 5 DRS at 1B. CF -2. So you can argue it improves as a full time 1B. 3-5 DEF maybe.

So you could guess a baseline 42 DEF.

Goldschmidt. -8.3 DEF
Arenado. 3.5 DEF
Winn -0.8
Edman 7.2

Not even in the same world.

St. Louis Cardinals Stats | FanGraphs Baseball

All the 2018 Cardinals batting and pitching stats, standings, depth charts, roster notes, schedule/results, news and analysis.

www.fangraphs.com

You like stats. You’re counting their SS based on three weeks, Edman based on less than half his games at second and extrapolating Bellinger.

If you don’t think Arenado is in the same world as Chapman, you don’t watch baseball. I’d like Chapman he’s good, but if you don’t think they’re in the same world, you simply don’t watch baseball ever.

 

[Castor76]

But like I said. Spend 300M on Bellinger and 100M on Chapman. That is a good starting point. Then extend Alzolay and Steele.

2024-25 will have a few ace level starters and Jed would have Hendricks and Stroman dropping off at the same time. 40M is what it is will cost Tom in 2024 for both. With Steele's increase you can look at 30M to invest into a co ace.

24-25 has 2 Ace level pitchers with 2 others who might be if they aren't injured again. That's also waiting until the need is highest to fill them versus getting a good pitcher this offseason and possibly tossing another year away. Teams that will have approximately 50M or more in projected CBT room who will also be looking for top flight SP and have a history of giving out big contracts. Baltimore, Boston, Yankees, Toronto, Houston. Angels, Rangers, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Giants, and even the Padres might dive back into the fray. Some might take themselves out this coming offseason. But you're still looking at probably 10 competitors for those guys.

Extending Alzolay and Steele makes no sense until they've hit Arb year 2 and are heading into Arb 3. At the very least they should show next year that they have what it takes during the Arb 1 year.

 

[knoxville7]

The Cardinals have Arenado and the Cardinals have Goldschmidt why would I not count them as part of their infield?

If the Cardinals did not have them, I would not be counting them as part of the Cardinals infield.

Where did I tell you to not count them??

 

[CSF77]

You like stats. You’re counting their SS based on three weeks, Edman based on less than half his games at second and extrapolating Bellinger.

If you don’t think Arenado is in the same world as Chapman, you don’t watch baseball. I’d like Chapman he’s good, but if you don’t think they’re in the same world, you simply don’t watch baseball ever.

Over all. Why I posted a complete vs a 1 to one