The Situational Hitting Problem

[beckdawg]

80% of his MLB innings have been played at 3B. Machado had barely played SS before this season, and then mostly because the Dodgers lost Seager and already had Turner. Not sure where you're getting this idea that he thinks of himself as a SS.

Eh... I mean that's kind of inaccurate. He was a SS in the minors. They just had Hardy who was great defensively when he was called up and they had no one at 3B. So, it made sense to play him at 3B but it's not like he doesn't have SS tools. He's not going to be Russell defensively but he's passable there.

 

[CSF77]

80% of his MLB innings have been played at 3B. Machado had barely played SS before this season, and then mostly because the Dodgers lost Seager and already had Turner. Not sure where you're getting this idea that he thinks of himself as a SS.

He was at SS with Baltimore this year. The Dodgers had little to do with Manny converting.

 

[beckdawg]

He was at SS with Baltimore this year. The Dodgers had little to do with Manny converting.

Plus he said he only wants to play SS. Whether or not that changes with certain teams who knows.

 

[CSF77]

Eh... I mean that's kind of inaccurate. He was a SS in the minors. They just had Hardy who was great defensively when he was called up and they had no one at 3B. So, it made sense to play him at 3B but it's not like he doesn't have SS tools. He's not going to be Russell defensively but he's passable there.

Dude Baez is passable there and is not costing the coin that Manny is demanding. I don't know if you really read into what Theo is saying. But when he says We will debate it is unlikely. They would have to be forced and that means Bryant has to move off 3B then they have to target a 3B vs a SS. They have a major league quality SS right now. He was at -1.3 and to be honest is better than Manny there at a fraction of the cost.

Look I'm down with targeting Eaton. That makes sense. If it costs Happ and Montgomery. Nats need another SP and a 2B.

Line up:
Eaton
Zo
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Heyward
Contreras
Schwarber

Schwarber takes walks anyways. If they pitch around so be it.

That way they address the lead off issue. Can upgrade back up catcher. Suzuki make the most sense with Yu returning. Gets Contreras off more where he keeps his production up. Then they can target a replacement for Russell. Now I targeted Gonzo due to his versatility. And honestly that is what Joe wants on the bench. A guy that can move around and you don't kill your O doing it.

Elvis Andrus (30) — can opt out of remaining four years and $58MM
Asdrubal Cabrera (33)
Alcides Escobar (32)
Eduardo Escobar (30)
Freddy Galvis (29)
Marwin Gonzalez (30)
Adeiny Hechavarria (30)
Jose Iglesias (29)
Manny Machado (26)
Jordy Mercer (32)
Eduardo Nuñez (32) — $5MM player option with a $2MM buyout
Jose Reyes (36)
Eric Sogard (33)

That is the list and honestly I really haven't dug too deep here.

 

[fatbeard]

Plus he said he only wants to play SS. Whether or not that changes with certain teams who knows.

I hadn't read that. Seems like an odd thing for a Boras client to say before FA.

 

[beckdawg]

I hadn't read that. Seems like an odd thing for a Boras client to say before FA.

Well he said it in Baltimore.... so he might have just been trying to force a trade. IDK like I said maybe his stance changes on a different team.

 

[Ari Bear]

I think the moral of the story of this season is that our best hitter, Baez, is a guy that should be hitting 7th or 8th in the order.
Russell was supposed to develop into that 5th hitter that made more contact and struck out less, which he did for a brief while when he approached hitting .290 at one point. But he is likely gone because he's not a good human.
Machado is the answer to this.

Machado hits for average and power Russell doesnt really do either!

 

[beckdawg]

Dude Baez is passable there and is not costing the coin that Manny is demanding. I don't know if you really read into what Theo is saying. But when he says We will debate it is unlikely. They would have to be forced and that means Bryant has to move off 3B then they have to target a 3B vs a SS. They have a major league quality SS right now. He was at -1.3 and to be honest is better than Manny there at a fraction of the cost.

Look I'm down with targeting Eaton. That makes sense. If it costs Happ and Montgomery. Nats need another SP and a 2B.

Line up:
Eaton
Zo
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Heyward
Contreras
Schwarber

Schwarber takes walks anyways. If they pitch around so be it.

That way they address the lead off issue. Can upgrade back up catcher. Suzuki make the most sense with Yu returning. Gets Contreras off more where he keeps his production up. Then they can target a replacement for Russell. Now I targeted Gonzo due to his versatility. And honestly that is what Joe wants on the bench. A guy that can move around and you don't kill your O doing it.

Elvis Andrus (30) — can opt out of remaining four years and $58MM
Asdrubal Cabrera (33)
Alcides Escobar (32)
Eduardo Escobar (30)
Freddy Galvis (29)
Marwin Gonzalez (30)
Adeiny Hechavarria (30)
Jose Iglesias (29)
Manny Machado (26)
Jordy Mercer (32)
Eduardo Nuñez (32) — $5MM player option with a $2MM buyout
Jose Reyes (36)
Eric Sogard (33)

That is the list and honestly I really haven't dug too deep here.

You're making a HARD assumption that washington even wants to trade Eaton. They may not want to. You're also relying on Zobrist playing 130-140 games at 2B and playing well when doing that. What happens if Zobrist hits like 2017? You're not starting La stella over him. I damn sure don't want Bote playing a major role. He's fine off the bench and I think what he'll likely be is a shuttle bat between AAA/MLB. But if Zobrist isn't the guy he was last year then you're not really improving the line up much with Eaton and without him if Zobrist plays poorly you're worse than 2018. And Marwin isn't my definition of a "fix" in that instance. More over what if literally anyone in the starting 8 gets hurt? A bench of back up C, Marwin, Almora, and La Stella isn't saving you.

The difference between that and signing Machado is if you have Machado and Zobrist is shit or someone gets hurt, Machado is the type of bat that can carry a team a la Rizzo/Bryant. Eaton isn't doing that. And I don't even hate the idea of Eaton but I'd make the move in addition to Machado not instead of Machado.

You're insisting they can't do Machado because of money but not substantiating that. Why do they have to go cheaper? Basically every team in the league set up their luxury tax situation for 2019 such that they had a chance to go after Harper/Machado. Is it really your stance that the cubs who are a top 5 payroll in baseball and who have been waiting for 7 years for their TV rights to be up haven't thought about this? They likely have $40-45 mil to play with before shedding any salary.

Also, if money is the issue you don't keep Hamels. Machado's bat matters more than Hamels being your 5th starter when you have Monty, Smyly, likely Alzolay and possibly Chatwood fixing himself(not holding out hope but he's already under contract). I personally would find some way to keep Hamels but the point here is that they have plenty of options to make Machado fit and their biggest issue the past 2 years has been their offense. Fix that and make the rest work around it.

 

[Diehardfan]

I like the flexibility Machado gives you. He's probably not a Gold Glover anywhere but he can play 3B, SS or 2B adequately, the same three Baez plays, Bryant 3B, 1B plus two OF spots, Zobrist 2B plus two OF spots, Bote a couple of IF spots, multiple spots for Happ and that's not even putting Russell in the mix....Maddon will be having lineup making orgasms. Eaton might be the lead off guy you need but the OF is already crowded and besides, he gets hurt every year...and Harper is Fool's gold.

 

[CSF77]

You're making a HARD assumption that washington even wants to trade Eaton. They may not want to. You're also relying on Zobrist playing 130-140 games at 2B and playing well when doing that. What happens if Zobrist hits like 2017? You're not starting La stella over him. I damn sure don't want Bote playing a major role. He's fine off the bench and I think what he'll likely be is a shuttle bat between AAA/MLB. But if Zobrist isn't the guy he was last year then you're not really improving the line up much with Eaton and without him if Zobrist plays poorly you're worse than 2018. And Marwin isn't my definition of a "fix" in that instance. More over what if literally anyone in the starting 8 gets hurt? A bench of back up C, Marwin, Almora, and La Stella isn't saving you.

The difference between that and signing Machado is if you have Machado and Zobrist is shit or someone gets hurt, Machado is the type of bat that can carry a team a la Rizzo/Bryant. Eaton isn't doing that. And I don't even hate the idea of Eaton but I'd make the move in addition to Machado not instead of Machado.

You're insisting they can't do Machado because of money but not substantiating that. Why do they have to go cheaper? Basically every team in the league set up their luxury tax situation for 2019 such that they had a chance to go after Harper/Machado. Is it really your stance that the cubs who are a top 5 payroll in baseball and who have been waiting for 7 years for their TV rights to be up haven't thought about this? They likely have $40-45 mil to play with before shedding any salary.

Also, if money is the issue you don't keep Hamels. Machado's bat matters more than Hamels being your 5th starter when you have Monty, Smyly, likely Alzolay and possibly Chatwood fixing himself(not holding out hope but he's already under contract). I personally would find some way to keep Hamels but the point here is that they have plenty of options to make Machado fit and their biggest issue the past 2 years has been their offense. Fix that and make the rest work around it.

This is not a new debate. They already have 2 guys locked in and if they resign Harper they are going to need to open playing time. Moving Eaton opens up playing time. And payroll.

Now if Harper signs elsewhere then that would be stupid on their part

OnZo: injured in 2017. That was a blip. Don’t make it out to be more. And I never said full time and said they needed a back up. Honestly I would be fine with Russell as a back up if he wasn’t a woman hitter and a downgrade to both Baez and Zobrist.

Again on Manny:

Going to cost 30 per. Theo already said: we have already thrown money at problems and that is not always the best solution. How plain do you want it. Uhm no we are not signing a mega?

He did say that they want Cole back. A 20 mil investment is not the same as a 300 mil

The rest that I’ve posted is speculation based off of potential matches. I’m not going off on Harper either because he falls into the mega deal.

At the end of the day I see them retooling

 

[anotheridiot]

I hadn't read that. Seems like an odd thing for a Boras client to say before FA.

Well he said it in Baltimore.... so he might have just been trying to force a trade. IDK like I said maybe his stance changes on a different team.

What I remember is when there was talk about where Manny was going at the deadline, and if he would accept a deal (extension?) with the team that got him, his answer was he would consider staying with a team he was traded to if he was going to stay at shortstop.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

This is not a new debate. They already have 2 guys locked in and if they resign Harper they are going to need to open playing time. Moving Eaton opens up playing time. And payroll.

Now if Harper signs elsewhere then that would be stupid on their part

OnZo: injured in 2017. That was a blip. Don’t make it out to be more. And I never said full time and said they needed a back up. Honestly I would be fine with Russell as a back up if he wasn’t a woman hitter and a downgrade to both Baez and Zobrist.

Again on Manny:

Going to cost 30 per. Theo already said: we have already thrown money at problems and that is not always the best solution. How plain do you want it. Uhm no we are not signing a mega?

He did say that they want Cole back. A 20 mil investment is not the same as a 300 mil

The rest that I’ve posted is speculation based off of potential matches. I’m not going off on Harper either because he falls into the mega deal.

At the end of the day I see them retooling

Washington isn't signing Harper though and they probably shouldn't. They'll have a nice team with out him led by Soto and Robles. Eaton moves back to RF where he's a better player with Soto in CF. Spend the money they would have spent on Harper on pitching and someone to play 2B. I fully expect them to be right back in the NL East picture next year although if Harper and Machado go to the other two teams that whole thing will be interesting.

 

[CSF77]

Washington isn't signing Harper though and they probably shouldn't. They'll have a nice team with out him led by Soto and Robles. Eaton moves back to RF where he's a better player with Soto in CF. Spend the money they would have spent on Harper on pitching and someone to play 2B. I fully expect them to be right back in the NL East picture next year although if Harper and Machado go to the other two teams that whole thing will be interesting.

Wouldn’t shock me if they did. 1/2 of their team are Boras

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Wouldn’t shock me if they did. 1/2 of their team are Boras

It would shock me, unless his market value is nowhere near where he thinks it is and then maybe Washington plays. Everything I've been hearing is that they may not even make an offer and that would be more or less at the request of Boras because what they want to spend on him doesn't come close to the ask. I fully expect Boras to throw $450 mil around to start and for things to start getting real around $375. You never know though.

 

[CSF77]

It would shock me, unless his market value is nowhere near where he thinks it is and then maybe Washington plays. Everything I've been hearing is that they may not even make an offer and that would be more or less at the request of Boras because what they want to spend on him doesn't come close to the ask. I fully expect Boras to throw $450 mil around to start and for things to start getting real around $375. You never know though.

It would be stupid of them to not offer Arb at min. Why help other teams?

I believe that they will get the first shot and Rizzo and Boras have a working history. If they wanted to go 14 years they could in the end.

 

[beckdawg]

Washington isn't signing Harper though and they probably shouldn't. They'll have a nice team with out him led by Soto and Robles. Eaton moves back to RF where he's a better player with Soto in CF. Spend the money they would have spent on Harper on pitching and someone to play 2B. I fully expect them to be right back in the NL East picture next year although if Harper and Machado go to the other two teams that whole thing will be interesting.

You mean robbles in CF.

 

[anotheridiot]

It would shock me, unless his market value is nowhere near where he thinks it is and then maybe Washington plays. Everything I've been hearing is that they may not even make an offer and that would be more or less at the request of Boras because what they want to spend on him doesn't come close to the ask. I fully expect Boras to throw $450 mil around to start and for things to start getting real around $375. You never know though.

We all know how the teams caved to Boreass last year with the demands for Jake. If the same deal happens with Harper, boreass might just have to retire before he just loses clients. One of the last guys to sign was JD Martinez and he will get MVP votes, so people might not even care..

I am really not sure that Theo wants to deal with him anymore. Off year, injured year for KB, most people would think its a good time to buy out arbitration years.

 

[tim62565]

I am cool with Happ or Schwarber as our leadoff alternatives.