Theo overvalues every player we have

[CSF77]

It's far too early to get into this projection of wins talk. I'm sure there will be tons of it in march so can we not really do that right now? I mean I know I brought up the total but that was more to illustrate the point that they had as much talent as the cardinals did last year and maybe arguably more. Cards won 91 games in a tough division that appears to have become a tiny bit easier with mil taking some steps back and STL thus far having lost more than they've brought in.

Regardless, the point I was trying to get at here is not that they were going to win a specific number of games. The point I was making is the talent currently on this roster projects to be near a playoff level team. Again, we don't have to have the conversation about projection vs actuality. All I'm saying is the talent level projections have the cubs as a top 5 NL team with 0 changes.

Clearly they are going to need to make some changes and clearly the past 2 seasons they offense hasn't played to their talent level projections. However, to sit here and say they aren't committed to winning is bullshit. Theo and company has built a team that should be better than they were. I think that's something everyone can agree with. We can sit here and debate the why of that all you want but my point is if you figure it out and fix their offense they can easily win the division and be in the playoff hunt.

I look at the cubs similar to the 2018 nationals. That team was 82-80 and obviously underperformed badly. That team had a +89 run diff. They lose Harper in that offseason and gain only one real big addition IIRC in Corbin and go on to win 93 games the following year plus the world series. I'd argue the 2019 cubs are in a better position to succeed than the 2018 nationals were because even if they lose bryant, they are doing so via trade.

Nat's added 2 SP and Stras had a career year. Harper is dead weight on payroll.

Very rarely is it worth making that kinda investment into a corner OF.

 

[Steve_A]

It's far too early to get into this projection of wins talk. I'm sure there will be tons of it in march so can we not really do that right now? I mean I know I brought up the total but that was more to illustrate the point that they had as much talent as the cardinals did last year and maybe arguably more. Cards won 91 games in a tough division that appears to have become a tiny bit easier with mil taking some steps back and STL thus far having lost more than they've brought in.

Regardless, the point I was trying to get at here is not that they were going to win a specific number of games. The point I was making is the talent currently on this roster projects to be near a playoff level team. Again, we don't have to have the conversation about projection vs actuality. All I'm saying is the talent level projections have the cubs as a top 5 NL team with 0 changes.

Clearly they are going to need to make some changes and clearly the past 2 seasons they offense hasn't played to their talent level projections. However, to sit here and say they aren't committed to winning is bullshit. Theo and company has built a team that should be better than they were. I think that's something everyone can agree with. We can sit here and debate the why of that all you want but my point is if you figure it out and fix their offense they can easily win the division and be in the playoff hunt.

I look at the cubs similar to the 2018 nationals. That team was 82-80 and obviously underperformed badly. That team had a +89 run diff. They lose Harper in that offseason and gain only one real big addition IIRC in Corbin and go on to win 93 games the following year plus the world series. I'd argue the 2019 cubs are in a better position to succeed than the 2018 nationals were because even if they lose bryant, they are doing so via trade.

To add on to that. The Cubs don’t have Max / Stras or Corb. Darvish could be a Stras or a Corb but he ain’t a Max.

 

[CSF77]

To add on to that. The Cubs don’t have Max / Stras or Corb. Darvish could be a Stras or a Corb but he ain’t a Max.

Darvish IMO is 4-6 fWAR.
Hendricks and Q 3-5 fWAR
Lester 1-3 fWAR.

That really is not a win total because that will be more so about the D and run generation. Lester was the worst starter but had the best win total.

 

[CSF77]

Interesting. Fansgraph has Mills projected as the 5. More so spot starts. Streemer has him at 23 starts next year.

I feel that that is a safe projection based off his history. Of all of the potential starters that are pending he is the most established guy. Outside of Rea.

Streamer has Rea in a middle relief role and getting 6 spot starts.

Chatwood streemer has at 61 games. 6 in the starting role. this is fair as he has excelled in short bursts.

Alozay they have him in 13 games. So IMO they are going by his injury track record of recent. He is a bit of a wild card going in.

 

[anotheridiot]

It's far too early to get into this projection of wins talk. I'm sure there will be tons of it in march so can we not really do that right now? I mean I know I brought up the total but that was more to illustrate the point that they had as much talent as the cardinals did last year and maybe arguably more. Cards won 91 games in a tough division that appears to have become a tiny bit easier with mil taking some steps back and STL thus far having lost more than they've brought in.

Regardless, the point I was trying to get at here is not that they were going to win a specific number of games. The point I was making is the talent currently on this roster projects to be near a playoff level team. Again, we don't have to have the conversation about projection vs actuality. All I'm saying is the talent level projections have the cubs as a top 5 NL team with 0 changes.

Clearly they are going to need to make some changes and clearly the past 2 seasons they offense hasn't played to their talent level projections. However, to sit here and say they aren't committed to winning is bullshit. Theo and company has built a team that should be better than they were. I think that's something everyone can agree with. We can sit here and debate the why of that all you want but my point is if you figure it out and fix their offense they can easily win the division and be in the playoff hunt.

I look at the cubs similar to the 2018 nationals. That team was 82-80 and obviously underperformed badly. That team had a +89 run diff. They lose Harper in that offseason and gain only one real big addition IIRC in Corbin and go on to win 93 games the following year plus the world series. I'd argue the 2019 cubs are in a better position to succeed than the 2018 nationals were because even if they lose bryant, they are doing so via trade.

I am not sleeping on the reds though, making it tougher for all of the central teams. I can really see splits with every team in this division for the cubs. I can see the reds, brewers and cardinals doing better against the Pirates while the cubs pretty much play them even, but probably splitting the 19 with each other.

I think the cubs start off best this year, giddy rossy time until the league sees his tendencies. These three hitter reliever roles should also negate the loogy role. By June we should know who has the stones to hold up to Rossys demands and figure it out then, when we know something is broken. Best case is upgrade a starter at the deadline if needed and not having to rebuild the entire bullpen again.