This is a pretty good read.

[iueyedoc]

McCown’s success shows how Trestman’s ‘O’ can be star-maker

BY MARK POTASH Staff Reporter November 12, 2013 10:08PM


Updated: November 12, 2013 11:58PM


If Josh McCown can thrive in Marc Trestman’s offense, who else can?

If Bears general manager Phil Emery isn’t asking himself that question, he should be. McCown’s success in three different relief appearances — one half against the Washington Redskins, a complete game against the Green Bay Packers and an emergency final drive against the Detroit Lions — doesn’t mean he’s the Bears’ best quarterback. But it does open up possibilities Emery would be remiss to ignore.

The Bears can win the Super Bowl with Cutler. But it’s becoming more and more apparent that circumstances have to be so perfect for him that it is less likely it will ever happen. He has the offensive line. He has the big receivers. He has the coaches he trusts and respects. Now he can’t stay healthy. Trestman can improve Cutler’s mechanics and provide him with a winning game plan, but he can’t change his luck.

Under Trestman, Cutler was off to the best start of his career, including back-to-back games against the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants with passer ratings of 128.1 and 106.5 and a career-best streak of 102 passes without an interception.

But he’s gradually regressing to the mean. With a bad start against the Redskins and a poor finish against the Lions, his 88.4 season passer rating is closing in on his career rating of 84.0. In fact, his passer rating this season when the game is within two touchdowns is 82.3 (10 touchdowns, eight interceptions). That’s 22nd among NFL starters and below Cutler’s 85.0 career average in that scenario coming into this season.

Unlike 2011, when Caleb Hanie’s disastrous performance made Cutler more valuable than ever, McCown’s performance in a backup role is shedding a new light on Cutler’s value to the Bears.

Based on McCown’s small (but not insignificant) sample, it seems as if a lower-risk quarterback like McCown still has the opportunity for high reward in Trestman’s offense. McCown’s career passer rating before this season was 71.2. His average yards per attempt was 6.3. Under Trestman, he has a 103.2 rating and 7.7 yards per attempt.

The quarterback who excelled best in Trestman’s offense, Rich Gannon with the Oakland Raiders, was closer to McCown’s skill set than Cutler’s. Gannon was a fourth-round draft pick with neither a strong arm nor a quick release and was projected more as a running back or defensive back coming out of Delaware in 1987. In the NFL, Gannon was a low-risk but efficient quarterback. Trestman turned him into a prolific passer — Gannon led the NFL in passing yards in 2003; his 7.6 yards per attempt was nearly a yard better than his career average of 6.8. He was the NFL’s Most Valuable Player. And he led the Raiders to the Super Bowl.

McCown is not Rich Gannon. But neither is Cutler, whose ‘‘cannon for an arm’’ still is a detriment to his performance at times. Cutler’s last two interceptions — the pick-six against the Redskins and the deflection in the end zone against the Lions — both came on throws that McCown never would have attempted because he knows he can’t make them. That’s one reason McCown has a 103.2 passer rating and Cutler an 88.4.

Trestman disputed the notion that McCown has been more successful than Cutler in his offense. But frankly, he’s in max-protect mode with his quarterback, noting that Alshon Jeffery dropped a catchable touchdown pass in the third quarter Sunday and absolving Cutler of blame for the interception in the end zone, claiming he also saw a window to Martellus Bennett that upon review still doesn’t appear to have been there.

Trestman was a lot more open to acknowledging Cutler’s errant throws and poor mechanics earlier in the season. But he’s right to protect his quarterback. Cutler is good enough to lead the Bears out of this mess — if the stars align. But the way McCown has taken to Trestman’s offense, the Bears would be wise to consider that there might be better options in the future.

Email: mpotash@suntimes.com

Twitter: @MarkPotash

 

[iueyedoc]

While I think Cutler is a better than average all around QB, some of this stuff is pretty interesting.

In fact, his passer rating this season when the game is within two touchdowns is 82.3 (10 touchdowns, eight interceptions). That’s 22nd among NFL starters and below Cutler’s 85.0 career average in that scenario coming into this season.

I would say that is a bit concerning, and I was a bit surprised that his passer rating isn't much better than his career average.

If, by chance, McCown plays at a similar level, the question of value is going to be huge, facing a possible $70-100M contract

 

[HeHateMe]

While I think Cutler is a better than average all around QB, some of this stuff is pretty interesting.

In fact, his passer rating this season when the game is within two touchdowns is 82.3 (10 touchdowns, eight interceptions). That’s 22nd among NFL starters and below Cutler’s 85.0 career average in that scenario coming into this season.

I would say that is a bit concerning, and I was a bit surprised that his passer rating isn't much better than his career average.

If, by chance, McCown plays at a similar level, the question of value is going to be huge, facing a possible $70-100M contract

Good read, fair and balanced.

I don't know how Cutler gets 100 Skrillions if this keeps up.

 

[-Cago34-]

While I think Cutler is a better than average all around QB, some of this stuff is pretty interesting.

In fact, his passer rating this season when the game is within two touchdowns is 82.3 (10 touchdowns, eight interceptions). That’s 22nd among NFL starters and below Cutler’s 85.0 career average in that scenario coming into this season.

I would say that is a bit concerning, and I was a bit surprised that his passer rating isn't much better than his career average.

If, by chance, McCown plays at a similar level, the question of value is going to be huge, facing a possible $70-100M contract

What you highlighted in red is what a lot of us doubters have seen. I won't go as far to say Jays stats have been inflated against prevent defenses or whatever other shit people say, but he hasn't played as well as most here make it out to be, imo.

 

[iueyedoc]

What you highlighted in red is what a lot of us doubters have seen. I won't go as far to say Jays stats have been inflated against prevent defenses or whatever other shit people say, but he hasn't played as well as most here make it out to be, imo.

Factor in things like the holding the ball at his waist ( Lions sack, fumble, TD) and what I would call average, at best, pocket awareness, the next couple weeks may have a huge impact on which direction the team goes in the future.

 

[Teddy KGB]

Solid read. Its what many of us have been saying before the CDF (Cutler Defense Force) comes storming in and screaming at everyone.

 

[bearmick]

While I think Cutler is a better than average all around QB, some of this stuff is pretty interesting.

In fact, his passer rating this season when the game is within two touchdowns is 82.3 (10 touchdowns, eight interceptions). That’s 22nd among NFL starters and below Cutler’s 85.0 career average in that scenario coming into this season.

I would say that is a bit concerning, and I was a bit surprised that his passer rating isn't much better than his career average.

If, by chance, McCown plays at a similar level, the question of value is going to be huge, facing a possible $70-100M contract

Josh is elite and will play for a couple hundred bucks with hockey tickets as incentive bonus. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

[HeHateMe]

Solid read. Its what many of us have been saying before the CDF (Cutler Defense Force) comes storming in and screaming at everyone.

No one is going to pick up and run with this "CDF" thing you keep pushing. It's super lame. Please don't CTL (climb the ladder) on me for saying it though, bruh.

 

[iueyedoc]

Josh is elite and will play for a couple hundred bucks with hockey tickets as incentive bonus. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Why must you send this thread spinning in that direction? I guess it got to six posts before the first salvo. Better than most.

 

[Teddy KGB]

What you highlighted in red is what a lot of us doubters have seen. I won't go as far to say Jays stats have been inflated against prevent defenses or whatever other shit people say, but he hasn't played as well as most here make it out to be, imo.

Exactly.

My thing is this - FUG the numbers; how does the offense LOOK. The eye test. Sometimes numbers aren't a good indication because passes can be dropped, or the QB smartly throws a ball out of bounds which negatively impacts his numbers yet is a positive play that lets the team live to fight another play. But how efficient does it look?

When I saw Cutler at the beginning of the year, I was ok with the idea that it might take a little time to adjust to the offense, that there would be ups and downs, inconsistencies, etc. And since I only had Cutler to base the offense off of, I was willing to be a bit more patient, even though game after game, Cutler still looked the same - he just had a better line and better targets to throw to, but I really didn't see a well-put together offense from an execution standpoint.

Then he gets hurt, in comes McCown, and Holy SHIT. Hit the ground running, the offense suddenly looked like it was the finished product to the point where it looked like a completely different offense. And then comes the bombshell, which changed my mind on the whole Cutler thing - Marc Trestman saying they did NOT change the plays for McCown. Running the same playbook as jay, same plays, just using different reads than jay does.

To me, that was the most damning thing against Jay - and when I really started to pay attention.

 

[bearmick]

McCown is not Rich Gannon. But neither is Cutler, whose ‘‘cannon for an arm’’ still is a detriment to his performance at times. Cutler’s last two interceptions — the pick-six against the Redskins and the deflection in the end zone against the Lions — both came on throws that McCown never would have attempted because he knows he can’t make them. That’s one reason McCown has a 103.2 passer rating and Cutler an 88.4.

This is a major point. Not taking the wild risks when you can make it work with efficient, smart play instead. This is what this offense needs. Tongue-in-cheek comments about eliteness aside, McCown really is a better fit for this offense.

 

[bufordht]

Too many on here face this question based on emotion and hard headedness, it is a valid question with no way to know the right answer.

Can McCown sustain his solid play? Could we count on him for a season or 2 if a draft pick doesn't work out?

The problem with not signing Cutler is that you are hitched to McCown and a draft pick that hasn't happened. You can't know who will be available to draft when free agency opens. It's very possible all that will be left is the Blaine Gabberts and Christian Ponders. Then you wait a year.

McCown's performance does suggest that what Trestman really needs is a good decision maker, not a flashy arm. That guy might be more like a 2nd or 3rd round pick but would need a year or two. Can McCown hold us over? I have a feeling that if teams start game planning for McCown, get some film on him (recent film) that his success would taper off.

Or does it make more sense to stick with a guy who we know can win games? As stated in the article he was off to his best start early on, would another offseason with Trestman help him buy in even more and drop some of his gunslinger mentality? A lot will say he is what he is and won't change, but Favre was a very different QB late in his career. It stands to reason that Culter could make even fewer bad decisions going forward. It's not like he can't learn.

The draft picks used on a QB would sure be nice to spend on the D. Does it make sense to send away a better than average QB, creating a hole to fill while we have plenty of other holes to fill?

I don't know, no one does. That's why there have been 364 threads on this very topic.

 

[-Cago34-]

Factor in things like the holding the ball at his waist ( Lions sack, fumble, TD) and what I would call average, at best, pocket awareness, the next couple weeks may have a huge impact on which direction the team goes in the future.

I agree. Emery and Trestman, can't be totally sold on Cutler, idgaf what they say in pressers. Jay leaves way to much to be desired.

 

[Dr. Manhattan]

Solid read. Its what many of us have been saying before the CDF (Cutler Defense Force) comes storming in and screaming at everyone.

yep. cutler is over rated.

 

[Teddy KGB]

This is a major point. Not taking the wild risks when you can make it work with efficient, smart play instead. This is what this offense needs. Tongue-in-cheek comments about eliteness aside, McCown really is a better fit for this offense.

I agree. And he might flub still - we will have to wait and see.

But a smart QB like McCown is still what is needed to truly unlock this offense. It doesn't (nor should it be) McCown long term, but I think you need to draft a QB this year, and re-sign McCown to a 3 year deal as a back up. It's smart coverage for the team, keeps an eye looking to the future, and even if you need to bring Jay back, it will help with negotiating.

 

[Teddy KGB]

Too many on here face this question based on emotion and hard headedness, it is a valid question with no way to know the right answer.

Can McCown sustain his solid play? Could we count on him for a season or 2 if a draft pick doesn't work out?

The problem with not signing Cutler is that you are hitched to McCown and a draft pick that hasn't happened. You can't know who will be available to draft when free agency opens. It's very possible all that will be left is the Blaine Gabberts and Christian Ponders. Then you wait a year.

McCown's performance does suggest that what Trestman really needs is a good decision maker, not a flashy arm. That guy might be more like a 2nd or 3rd round pick but would need a year or two. Can McCown hold us over? I have a feeling that if teams start game planning for McCown, get some film on him (recent film) that his success would taper off.

Or does it make more sense to stick with a guy who we know can win games? As stated in the article he was off to his best start early on, would another offseason with Trestman help him buy in even more and drop some of his gunslinger mentality? A lot will say he is what he is and won't change, but Favre was a very different QB late in his career. It stands to reason that Culter could make even fewer bad decisions going forward. It's not like he can't learn.

The draft picks used on a QB would sure be nice to spend on the D. Does it make sense to send away a better than average QB, creating a hole to fill while we have plenty of other holes to fill?

I don't know, no one does. That's why there have been 364 threads on this very topic.

You need a very good scouting department. Supposedly this is a very deep QB class - very deep. Doesn't mean they are all good. Look at the Rex Grossman draft for an example of that - Palmer taken #1, and a steaming pile of shit no matter who you took after that. Sometimes the best QB you can take is none at all and just wait until another year where there are a bunch of QBs you can believe in.

On the other hand, so far any QB who has played in this Trestman system has said it is very QB-friendly and Palmer's lil bro said its the best offensive system for QBs he's ever seen. So a rook might not have as steep a learning curve.

 

[Packer Fan]

Was Gannon not a journeyman quarterback that finally turned decent and had two consecutive pro-bowl appearances before Trestman became a coach with the Raiders? Not to say Trestman and his offense can't be a reason for McCown's success but why is Trestman getting so much credit for turning Gannon's career around when Gannon clearly already turned it around?


2001-2003 - Marc Trestman OAK (QB/OC)

Rich Gannon
1987-1998 - Mediocre
Goes to the Raiders
1999 - Pro Bowl
2000 - Pro Bowl
Trestman
2001 - Pro Bowl
2002 - Pro Bowl
2003 - Injury/Rating falls dramatically
2004 - The End

 

[Camden Cutler]

not even gonna lie brehs...since the redskins game i've thought we had a "SYSTEM" on our hands like the packers, saints, and patriots..i think cutlers days as a chicago bear are numbered and we draft a player to replace him

 

[HeHateMe]

This is a major point. Not taking the wild risks when you can make it work with efficient, smart play instead. This is what this offense needs. Tongue-in-cheek comments about eliteness aside, McCown really is a better fit for this offense.

I agree, but I also think that McCown's conservative approach to the game because of his backup talent level is not going to open up the offense. This offense is in its infancy. If the Bears were to go with McCown, he's not going to be a guy that will see this offense through to maximum potential. Can Jay be that guy? Some say yes, some say it's time to find a cheap guy that we can have the same question marks about, a guy with potential.

The problem I have with all of this start McCown, draft a QB in the first round to develop talk is that we will need those high round picks for Defense if we want to contend. McCown or a rookie QB are not going to put up the points to win games with a bad D...

 

[fenderpfunk]

Good article which brings some good points. Yet again this Sunday will be very interesting to see how the quarterback performs against a good pass rush (this week on the edge vs. up the middle). Best thing for all of us at this point is for josh's sample size to increase. It will give him a chance to continue to show how much a certain type of player can excel in this offense or give him a chance to regress to his own statistical mean. Can't wait. I just hope we get the w.