TIL: in 2010 Barret Loux was the 6th pick in the MLB draft.

beckdawg

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Not only that but he was selected before both Matt Harvey and Chris Sale. Talk about a fall from grace.... the cubs got him for Soto from the Rangers. He's still only 24 but he's not even talked about in cubs prospect circles these days.
 

patg006

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'Location' pitcher with not spectacular stuff. Low 90s fastball and average everything else. Expect nothing from this kid. AAAA player

Clear example that prospects are nothing more than lottery tickets. This one busted.
 

beckdawg

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'Location' pitcher with not spectacular stuff. Low 90s fastball and average everything else. Expect nothing from this kid. AAAA player

Clear example that prospects are nothing more than lottery tickets. This one busted.

Think it's still too early to say he's destined to be a 4A player since he's still only 24 but yeah he's definitely unlikely to ever reclaim that high draft status.
 

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'Location' pitcher with not spectacular stuff. Low 90s fastball and average everything else. Expect nothing from this kid. AAAA player

Clear example that prospects are nothing more than lottery tickets. This one busted.

The lottery ticket argument is getting old. Pujols has proven to be a lottery ticket in LA thus far (Hamilton, too), only those lottery tickets cost exponentially more. But several people on this board want to be in on all the big free agents no matter what b/c that's how you win!!!!!!!! :facepalm:
 

patg006

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Think it's still too early to say he's destined to be a 4A player since he's still only 24 but yeah he's definitely unlikely to ever reclaim that high draft status.

The Rangers pegged him to be, best case scenario: Loux's best pitch is his fastball, which is generally in the low-90s. Loux also has a curveball, a slider, and a changeup, but none of them are viewed as pitches that will ever be more than average, which limits his ceiling to that of a back-end innings eater. The limited ceiling, along with the belief among some that more arm problems in the future are inevitable, contribute to Loux being generally ranked lower among the prospect cognoscenti

(http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/2/9/2786354/barret-loux-scouting-report)

Dude sucked in AAA last year (just under 5 ERA).

I'm fairly confident he has AAAA written all over him......
 

patg006

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The lottery ticket argument is getting old. Pujols has proven to be a lottery ticket in LA thus far (Hamilton, too), only those lottery tickets cost exponentially more. But several people on this board want to be in on all the big free agents no matter what b/c that's how you win!!!!!!!! :facepalm:

Ah yes. The board's resident genius has come down from his high horse to grace me with his wisdom.

You think I'm talking about lottery tickets like they all are busts and its all negative.

I talk about prospects being lottery tickets based on reality, you idiot.

Some make it nice, that rare one you hit the jackpot with, some you break ahead, some you break even. A lot bust. A lot are like the 1$ scratch off where you win 1$, so you wash.

Some look so god damn promising like your first 4 numbers of the big powerball then the ball busting 5th ball and you still lose. That's my point.

You have yet to show any evidence to the contrary. You're just baiting. Which is sad, because you're the mod, and you're the guy who's seen us say "hey, try this BOTH thing, all the winners are doing it." It usually gets met with masterful, ambushing responses like "no, build the farm, thats how teams win with a foundation of only farm players. 2017 projected line up is:"

And a busted, overpaid Pujols is still better than Anthony Rizzo.

Thanks for playing, cupcake.
 

beckdawg

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The Rangers pegged him to be, best case scenario: Loux's best pitch is his fastball, which is generally in the low-90s. Loux also has a curveball, a slider, and a changeup, but none of them are viewed as pitches that will ever be more than average, which limits his ceiling to that of a back-end innings eater. The limited ceiling, along with the belief among some that more arm problems in the future are inevitable, contribute to Loux being generally ranked lower among the prospect cognoscenti

(http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/2/9/2786354/barret-loux-scouting-report)

Dude sucked in AAA last year (just under 5 ERA).

I'm fairly confident he has AAAA written all over him......

I'm not saying he's a lock to be a good major league player simply that guys with "meh" stuff become decent pitchers from time to time. Paul Maholm throws 87.5 on his fastball and he's hung around as a decent starter and none of his pitches are amazing. His change up is the only pitch that's above league average and that's only slightly.
 

Chris J

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you guys are passsing up important factors with Loux. Just because he was taken high doesnt always mean he's the best. If the Rangers had lower money to spend in the draft, they take the cheaper guy who they know they can sign. Like the Cubs did with Hayden Simpson.

Also, it is possible that the Rangers simply failed at developing him
 

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Ah yes. The board's resident genius has come down from his high horse to grace me with his wisdom.
At least you're understanding where I'm coming from.

You think I'm talking about lottery tickets like they all are busts and its all negative.

I talk about prospects being lottery tickets based on reality, you idiot.


Some make it nice, that rare one you hit the jackpot with, some you break ahead, some you break even. A lot bust. A lot are like the 1$ scratch off where you win 1$, so you wash.

Some look so god damn promising like your first 4 numbers of the big powerball then the ball busting 5th ball and you still lose. That's my point.
Ok - fair enough.

You have yet to show any evidence to the contrary. You're just baiting. Which is sad, because you're the mod, and you're the guy who's seen us say "hey, try this BOTH thing, all the winners are doing it." It usually gets met with masterful, ambushing responses like "no, build the farm, thats how teams win with a foundation of only farm players. 2017 projected line up is:"
All I've asked is for someone to show a realistic plan for success. No one's done it. Just bitching on top of bitching. The most valid argument I've heard is "Hey, we should've gotten fielder." Ok, but we didn't...Now what? Should we have given $250M/10 years to Cano? $20m/yr to Ellsbury or McCann? You can't just say "You've gotta get proven players to help." That part, I 100% agree with. But if you overpay for 3+ players, you get in the situation the Cubs are just coming out of (Sori, Zambrano, Aramis, etc) where you have a lot of dead weight making up 70% of the team's salary. You're completely handcuffed that way.

Whether people like to hear it or not, in order to have sustained success at the MLB level, you need a good farm system. The Cubs are getting there. It takes time. Not everyone is going to pan out. If we're lucky, half of them will...and that's if we're lucky....but you've gotta have some home-grown talent that performs @ the majors, as well as some tradeable assets in the farm.

And a busted, overpaid Pujols is still better than Anthony Rizzo.
Ask the Angels about that contract in two years.
Thanks for playing, cupcake.

You're welcome, sweetie. Been fun.
 

nwfisch

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My favorite teams
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  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Chicago Blackhawks
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Pops, where's the damn rhubarb pie?
 

Boobaby1

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At least you're understanding where I'm coming from.


Ok - fair enough.


All I've asked is for someone to show a realistic plan for success. No one's done it. Just bitching on top of bitching. The most valid argument I've heard is "Hey, we should've gotten fielder." Ok, but we didn't...Now what? Should we have given $250M/10 years to Cano? $20m/yr to Ellsbury or McCann? You can't just say "You've gotta get proven players to help." That part, I 100% agree with. But if you overpay for 3+ players, you get in the situation the Cubs are just coming out of (Sori, Zambrano, Aramis, etc) where you have a lot of dead weight making up 70% of the team's salary. You're completely handcuffed that way.

Whether people like to hear it or not, in order to have sustained success at the MLB level, you need a good farm system. The Cubs are getting there. It takes time. Not everyone is going to pan out. If we're lucky, half of them will...and that's if we're lucky....but you've gotta have some home-grown talent that performs @ the majors, as well as some tradeable assets in the farm.


Ask the Angels about that contract in two years.


You're welcome, sweetie. Been fun.

I've been in the "sign Tanaka if he's posted" and I would overpay in this instance as many know on here. One question I have is at what point do the Cubs actually start adding pieces to this puzzle?

If you trade Shark (which I am also in favor of), you have just removed another piece of the supposed core and more than likely replaced him with prospects. Now, if you sign Tanaka, the blow is lessened and if you don't, it is magnified for the short term, and the Cubs have pushed this derailed train back another year or two.

When does it stop?

Some on here seem to bank on Castro and Rizzo turning it around, but can a new coach really do that much? If you give those two young guys no veteran leadership and no help as far as a little power and protection, they will grow frustrated just as Shark has when they traded his cohorts away.

These are competitors, and all competitors hate losing. You can only ask them to be so patient, and the fans as well. The idea is to make your team attractive not only for your current players, but for future players and free agents as well. It is no secret why the Cardinals seem to get home town and free agent discounts on most players they acquire or extend.

By staying the course as the Cubs have, they have essentially forced themselves to overpay for players (see Anibal Sanchez and E-Jax) because if they use the Cubs as leverage and sign with another team, then you are forced to pay for pitchers you may have ordinarily taken a flyer on.

If you are competitive, Sanchez probably comes to the Cubs and E-Jax is somewhere else losing. Now the Cubs are probably somehow going to have to eat his salary and trade him off to a team for a low level prospect, and then complain that every dollar is spent. Again, when will it end?

If it were me, I throw all my efforts at Tanaka as plan A. Plan B is if he doesn't sign or isn't posted, I extend Wood and then I trade everybody on the team that has any chance of getting a prospect or a major league player in return to help the team move forward. That includes Shark, Barney, Russell, Jackson, and Schierholz. I see no point of adding 20 million to the payroll and this junky team to be a 95 loss team yet again.

At least by trading these guys away, I could understand the 100 plus losses that inevitably would happen, but in the end, I would get the #1 pick for sure in 2015, and probably some close to ready talent in return. In fact, I wouldn't be disappointed at all and would do backflips naked in my front yard if they signed Tanaka and extended Wood, and still traded all of those guys off. I think the Cubs would get to where they are going just as fast, if not faster.
 

Boobaby1

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Pops, where's the damn rhubarb pie?

Hey nwfisch, love the avatar. One of my favorite Christmas movies as a kid. At first I thought it was Castro responding to Sveum when he was asked him how many outs there were in the inning. :smug2:
 

beckdawg

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I've been in the "sign Tanaka if he's posted" and I would overpay in this instance as many know on here. One question I have is at what point do the Cubs actually start adding pieces to this puzzle?

I have said this a lot it feel like but I'd say you do this when you have a team that can challenge for a .500 or above record. If you get a team that puts up 80 wins and adds a Cano type you're pushing playoffs off that one move alone. And if you're a team challenging for .500 with young guys you have a core group that can sustain success. Until then what's the point?

As for Castro/Rizzo, I've long been on the side that suggest Rizzo wasn't even that bad this year and given that he's 24 it's reasonable to expect him to progress like most players do toward 27 where most players begin their peak years. Sure Rizzo's average was terrible but his BABIP was approaching .250 IIRC. If that rebounds to .280 BABIP and you're talking about a .270-280 average which with the rest of his stats would look a lot different. Simply stated, I don't think Rizzo is "the guy" in the way that a Trout type is. I think he's a solid player, potentially even a decent all-star yearly type. But, I don't think he'll ever be the best player on a WS team. Castro I'm less sold on than a lot here considering he's the type of player that needs to be on base a lot in order to have value and he seemingly can't walk to save his life.

To put my timing into perspective, I think you're talking about when Rizzo, Baez + one. That is to say, assuming Baez is the type of top 10 talent that comes up and within a year or two is what you expect, Rizzo fixes his average, and one other guy from the soler, almora and Bryant bunch becomes a potential all-star type. You also need at least some decent pitching hopefully out of Arrieta, Wood + one. If you get to that point I think trying to sign a ace type in FA makes a lot of sense. And by that i mean a Price type not a Tanaka who makes sense now.
 

patg006

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you guys are passsing up important factors with Loux. Just because he was taken high doesnt always mean he's the best. If the Rangers had lower money to spend in the draft, they take the cheaper guy who they know they can sign. Like the Cubs did with Hayden Simpson.

Also, it is possible that the Rangers simply failed at developing him

He was damaged goods. The Rangers failed at nothing, unless expecting a 0 to act like anything better is your expectation.

Loux was a special case. He was drafted by the DBacks, agreed to a deal, but failed his physical with a torn labrum. He was declared a Free agent in 2011 (Dbacks handed the 7th pick and took Archie Bradley; Rangers signed him.
 

patg006

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At least you're understanding where I'm coming from.


Ok - fair enough.


All I've asked is for someone to show a realistic plan for success. No one's done it. Just bitching on top of bitching. The most valid argument I've heard is "Hey, we should've gotten fielder." Ok, but we didn't...Now what? Should we have given $250M/10 years to Cano? $20m/yr to Ellsbury or McCann? You can't just say "You've gotta get proven players to help." That part, I 100% agree with. But if you overpay for 3+ players, you get in the situation the Cubs are just coming out of (Sori, Zambrano, Aramis, etc) where you have a lot of dead weight making up 70% of the team's salary. You're completely handcuffed that way.

Whether people like to hear it or not, in order to have sustained success at the MLB level, you need a good farm system. The Cubs are getting there. It takes time. Not everyone is going to pan out. If we're lucky, half of them will...and that's if we're lucky....but you've gotta have some home-grown talent that performs @ the majors, as well as some tradeable assets in the farm.


Ask the Angels about that contract in two years.


You're welcome, sweetie. Been fun.

You're over exaggerating some things here. Yes, I wanted Fielder. Also wanted CJ Wilson. Does his 5 year, 75 mil deal break the bank? How much better would Keith Law :fap: to our system if you replace Almora with Appel? A lot more. Pitching wouldn't be considered the cubs biggest and weakest link.

Why was Chris Volstad allowed to start? Would Swisher over Nate/Bugo/McDonald have been that bad? Brandon McCarthy (even after he took that dome shot) was stolen by the DBacks for 2 years, 7.5 mil. I wont say playoffs worthy but a shit ton more competitive.

I understand the rebuilding process. I understand the attempt of trying to build 'sustained success,' which is bullshit. Few teams do it with a farm, many teams have tried and failed. I hate the fact that the cubs will give a shit more about the A team instead of the ML team.

Even in the rebuilding process, at least try to fix problems. The cubs cant drive in runs, so explain how Corey Hart or Jason Kubel would be such a bad thing in the OF and some days at 1B to spell Rizzo, who will be streaky again?

Not every one will pan out, fine and dandy. The number that will will be less than half. I've stated before, my bets are on Baez, Bryant, and Pierce Johnson. CJ Edwards I feel falls short of 'starter' expectations and becomes a bullpen guy. I'll buy into Maples again if he gets his control down. I would hold onto Vogelbach for 2 reasons:

1--I don't buy Rizzo is the guy. He needs to show this year he can overcome streakyness.

2--More blasphemous talks about the NL adding a DH to reach out to younger generation who love scoring and cant stand low scoring, pitching battles. Some people want it by 2016.

Now where's the rhubarb pie, pumpkin?
 

CSF77

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If Tanaka gets posted it will be a shocker.

As far as F/A go they need 1 SP a late inning guy and a bat (maybe)

I believe the RH side to RF will be in house.

SP I would want them to resign Baker. He looked good his brief stay. He could prove to be the next Dempster. Solid #2-3 arm. If they have to trade Shark I would like for them to back fill with Maholm then. He won games here. That is what matters in the end. He is a good back of the rotation vet and should soak innings as he did before.

On a bat. To be honest if it is not Choo I wouldn't bother at this point. Ya they are lottery tickets but I believe that they will be played out and replaced with F/A if they bust vs blocked.
 

CSF77

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How much better would Keith Law to our system if you replace Almora with Appel? A lot more. Pitching wouldn't be considered the cubs biggest and weakest link.

one arm is not going to fix the Cubs lack of depth. Did having Cashner make them a top pitching producing team?

No

They need depth and development. Sure it is good to have a few high talented arms but in the end it is better to have the machine that can churn them out on a regular basis.. Again refer to the Cards/Barave and even the A's.

They drafted heavy into pitching the last 2 drafts. The true test is if they can develop them.

Big arm = Hype.

Regular production of quality pitching = moving forward.
 

CSF77

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So he is 2 years out now. Ya in view of that now it the time to take the 20 mil. If they hold onto him this year he can just wait the last year out and have a clean pick of the teams.

Basically a team would be paying 10 mil per year of buy out and that is a bargain.

Still I'll bet all teams would post the 20 mil. Cubs have a slim chance over teams better positioned to make play off runs.

2 years from now if he had a choice of the teams the Cubs would have their talent in place and would be looking for F/A's like him to turn a young talented team into a play off team.

In view of that reality I'm hoping that Tanaka decides to wait until he is a F/A.

This year less then 1% 2 years better shot.
 

Boobaby1

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So he is 2 years out now. Ya in view of that now it the time to take the 20 mil. If they hold onto him this year he can just wait the last year out and have a clean pick of the teams.

Basically a team would be paying 10 mil per year of buy out and that is a bargain.

Still I'll bet all teams would post the 20 mil. Cubs have a slim chance over teams better positioned to make play off runs.

2 years from now if he had a choice of the teams the Cubs would have their talent in place and would be looking for F/A's like him to turn a young talented team into a play off team.

In view of that reality I'm hoping that Tanaka decides to wait until he is a F/A.

This year less then 1% 2 years better shot.

Not me. This is the time for the Cubs to pounce on him if he is posted since payroll is really low, coupled with the fact that in 2 years, the Yankees (who don't want to pay the luxury tax) and Dodgers (who are looking to dump some outfielder(s)) might have freed up enough to blow the Cubs out of the water (they can already) because more than likely, the Yankees won't be paying Jeter and A-Rods salaries for starters, Vernon Wells and Kuroda come off the books next year, and Sabathia and Tex are signed through 2016.

The Dodgers may free up Kemp and some others. Granted, Kershaw looms on the horizon, but that is the main competition the Cubs have, and teams like the Braves and the Cardinals have a surplus already. The Cubs are already above the other 90% of the league as far as flexibility, so why not do it, establish what type of pitcher he is, and go on from their?

If he is an ACE, then look for #2's and so on. If he is a #2 or #3, then you know what you need. Simply hoping that their will be an abundance of free agents out their in 2 years is naïve thinking, and not to mention, it will not only cost an absolute ton of money, but also a draft pick.

It is no different than bringing Baez up at the end of the year. You need to see what you have or don't have first in order to assess your needs.
 

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