True. I can't see him commanding much more than he's making now.
The main question is, even if one assumes he will never live up to 3rd overall expectations, does that automatically make him expendable? I'd argue no. If the guy can become a solid 3rd liner or top-six player -- both of which are still possible -- why can't he still be a piece you build around? I mean people rave about Hagel -- rightfully so -- but he will never be any better than a great 3rd line player. Yet he's a player almost everyone agrees is one you build around and keep. Even if Dach isn't a player who can carry your franchise alone, he can still be a valuable piece that's worth keeping long term.
In my estimation Hagel is of a similar cut of player that Bolland, Kruger, Frolik, and Shaw were (and possibly a Ladd-upside)--someone who is probably best suited as a 3rd liner and excels in that role, but could probably play in the top-6 if necessary and not shoot the team in the foot. Further, with the right linemates they could turn a 3rd line into a 1c line. The only way you move on from those players is if they (a) ask for and command more than they are worth, (b) their games starts to deteriorate, (c) the roster is locked and you have players who are de facto better in all of the important aspects of the game who can take over their role and do it better, or very similar at a cheaper cost, or (d) the team is going nowhere fast and a piece with is a real need with respect to the rebuild/putting a team over the top will come at a cost for giving up said player.
Dach, in that respect, is interesting. I agree with many of your assertions that his game away from the puck is very good especially at his age. His faceoffs need work and his point totals are not commensuate with his draft pedigree, but you are right in that he's not Nylander/Sikura/Campoli/Zyuzin/Fake tits on a zombie-level of useless--he is indeed a decent player and there's no real reason to move on from him unless someone better pops up:
Using the same litmus test as in the previous paragraph:
- Does Dach price himself out?
Unlikely. He's not arbitration-eligible. Unless a team offer-sheets him at questionable sum it's unlikely he'll price himself out--and in the offer-sheet scenario my estimation is ~3-4M is the cut-off point, depending on who the GM is and the likelihood of pulling in a decent acquisition in the 2nd round. Over 4M (which I doubt another GM would do), you take the 1st and 3rd and run.
- Is Dach's game deteriorating
No.
- Is there a player who is in all aspects better than Dach that makes him superfluous?
No--in fact absolutely not. I've seen microscope slides with more depth than the 'hawks have in every respect.
- Would Dach be a piece that could fetch a piece in return that helps the rebuild?
This actually could happen, but no guarantees that it will. Any GM worth their salt would listen to offers which ask for Dach, but unless the return is a real need (like, say, a possible 1-2 D-man who is still young, somewhat inexpensive and on the cusp of a breakout but is jammed up behind established D-men), you don't simply trade him.
And for the record, the same could apply to Hagel. If the 'hawks were able to flop Hagel out for a guy who plays Hagel's game, but was closer to, say .75 PPG rather than .5ppg, I think you gotta do it.
