Tony Thomas (Lost in the Castro hype)

[ZAN]

Theriot's the only player without his head up his rear right now. Soto and Fukudome are playing well, too.

Son of a *****. Dammit Wells....giving a run back to them....WTF are you thinking?!

 

[Lefty]

Plate discipline is one hitting attribute that actually does translate VERY well into the major leagues. Through college and the minors Thomas has shown the ability to work counts and coax walks. Remember, strikeout numbers don't necessarily equate to plate discipline. Striking out 100 times but also working 3-2 counts on a daily basis is fine with me. Strikeouts are an overly villain-ized stat.

I understand that, but Thomas hasn't shown this "plate discipline" that you speak of. He doesn't walk a lot for a guy with such great "discipline", he doesn't get on base at a great clip, and he strikes out a ton.

Now, since it appears that you lack reading comprehension skills, here is WHY I said that his .358 OBP doesn't translate well into the majors: he is putting up those numbers in AA, not at the major-league level. Minor league statistics CAN be translated into a set of MLB stats, and the two correlate surprisingly well. For instance, a hitter in AAA with a .300+ EqA in an average run environment could be reasonably expected to post a .260-.270 EqA (about MLB-average) in the majors.

Now, that is how the stats translate from a guy dominating AAA, not a guy putting up otherwise average numbers in AA. Therefore, a .358 OBP put up in AA won't necessarily translate into a .358 OBP in the majors, not even close.

 

[nrthsidrfan]

Theriot's the only player without his head up his rear right now. Soto and Fukudome are playing well, too.

Son of a *****. Dammit Wells....giving a run back to them....WTF are you thinking?!

I like that when he tried to leave the mound Lou quickly ushered him back up there haha...I can just hear Lou saying "damnit kid I'm trying to waste time so the reliever can get warm!"

 

[ZAN]

I understand that, but Thomas hasn't shown this "plate discipline" that you speak of. He doesn't walk a lot for a guy with such great "discipline", he doesn't get on base at a great clip, and he strikes out a ton.

Now, since it appears that you lack reading comprehension skills, here is WHY I said that his .358 OBP doesn't translate well into the majors: he is putting up those numbers in AA, not at the major-league level. Minor league statistics CAN be translated into a set of MLB stats, and the two correlate surprisingly well. For instance, a hitter in AAA with a .300+ EqA in an average run environment could be reasonably expected to post a .260-.270 EqA (about MLB-average) in the majors.

Now, that is how the stats translate from a guy dominating AAA, not a guy putting up otherwise average numbers in AA. Therefore, a .358 OBP put up in AA won't necessarily translate into a .358 OBP in the majors, not even close.

Just playing the Devil's Advocate here....but in the minors, it's a hack fest. Lots of proven MLB studs (on rehab assignments) get whacked around in the minors because kids swing at everything...

Look at Colvin. Everyone didn't want him up with the Cubs because he didn't take walks in the minors. Since he's been with the big club he's display TOO MUCH patience, if anything...

The attitude in the minors is "you don't get to the majors taking walks...I need to stand out with the bat so I gotta swing"

 

[nrthsidrfan]

I understand that, but Thomas hasn't shown this "plate discipline" that you speak of. He doesn't walk a lot for a guy with such great "discipline", he doesn't get on base at a great clip, and he strikes out a ton.

Now, since it appears that you lack reading comprehension skills, here is WHY I said that his .358 OBP doesn't translate well into the majors: he is putting up those numbers in AA, not at the major-league level. Minor league statistics CAN be translated into a set of MLB stats, and the two correlate surprisingly well. For instance, a hitter in AAA with a .300+ EqA in an average run environment could be reasonably expected to post a .260-.270 EqA (about MLB-average) in the majors.

Now, that is how the stats translate from a guy dominating AAA, not a guy putting up otherwise average numbers in AA. Therefore, a .358 OBP put up in AA won't necessarily translate into a .358 OBP in the majors, not even close.

Come on man, I'm really just trying to say he's having a damn nice spring so let's watch and see what the kid can do. Don't blow things out of proportion. He's trending up, he's a smart baseball player that can work a count and run the bases. He's having a watershed start to the spring and taking a LOT of walks to start the season...We're both Cubs fans and you don't need to assassinate my "reading comprehension skills" because he doesn't seem like a good prospect to you. You're entitled to your opinion.

 

[Lefty]

Just playing the Devil's Advocate here....but in the minors, it's a hack fest. Lots of proven MLB studs (on rehab assignments) get whacked around in the minors because kids swing at everything...

Look at Colvin. Everyone didn't want him up with the Cubs because he didn't take walks in the minors. Since he's been with the big club he's display TOO MUCH patience, if anything...

The attitude in the minors is "you don't get to the majors taking walks...I need to stand out with the bat so I gotta swing"

There's a difference between playing DA and just disagreeing with things that are said, just cuz. The studies done on how minor league statistics translate to MLB production has been done over and over and over again, and each time they have gotten even better at predicting how a minor league player's numbers translate to the major leagues. That's the basis of PECOTA, and while it's predictions of how the season plays out for teams as a whole have been somewhat erroneous, I'm pretty sure their margin of error in predicting player performances has been pretty damn good.

So, knowing that, we can say that a player that strikes out a ton in the minors, doesn't hit for much power, doesn't have a particularly substantial walk rate and can't get on-base at a .370-.380+ clip at the lower levels probably isn't going to do any of those things much better than he already is, and it's a safe bet that he'll get worse in many areas.

 

[ZAN]

Theriot gonna show his well rounded offensive ability and move the runners over?

Yes sir. Great job, riot!

 

[Lefty]

Come on man, I'm really just trying to say he's having a damn nice spring so let's watch and see what the kid can do. Don't blow things out of proportion. He's trending up, he's a smart baseball player that can work a count and run the bases. He's having a watershed start to the spring and taking a LOT of walks to start the season...We're both Cubs fans and you don't need to assassinate my "reading comprehension skills" because he doesn't seem like a good prospect to you. You're entitled to your opinion.

But you see, he's not having that great of a spring. His walk rates at the AA level haven't been stellar, and neither have his OBP or power indicators. If you want to bust a nut over 48 PA's and just completely disregard everything else, that's fine, but you would need some other sort of evidence to convince me to throw out the numbers, and the "stop talking about him cuz he's doin good right now" argument isn't cutting it.

 

[ZAN]

PECOTA predicts the Nationals to finish 83-81. I'm not buying that...

I'm gonna take Greg Maddux's opinion over PECOTA's statistical analysis. There are parts of baseball that a formula can't account for. Is a player having family troubles? Is a player clinically depressed? Etc...

Maddux is the best pitcher the generation (arguably)...and he got shelled in the minors. Hitters don't take walks in the minors, man. They all want to stand out, and they all flail at everything...which explains low walks and high Ks...

 

[Lefty]

PECOTA predicts the Nationals to finish 83-81. I'm not buying that...

Seriously? THIS is your response to PECOTA being referenced, even when I said this:

That's the basis of PECOTA, and while it's predictions of how the season plays out for teams as a whole have been somewhat erroneous, I'm pretty sure their margin of error in predicting player performances has been pretty damn good.

See people? This is the type of moron that shows up posting on a message board when the number one recruiting tactic is spamming the shit out of other boards.

 

[ZAN]

Did you not read the rest of my post, tool? I addressed the individual player issue...

Again, I'll refresh. A formula can not possibly take into account every little variable in the game. But you really aren't refuting my opinion on how minor leaguers hack at everything thrown at the plate...

There are soooo many statistics in baseball that you can skew them to suit your argument. If you look hard enough you can find a statistic to argue Player X over Player Y (when everyone knows Player Y is really better)...

Slight statistics are the reasons people would argue Mauer as a better hitter then Pujols...

Sometimes you just need to take your statistics and shove them up your ass..

 

[Grace's Slumpbusters]

I dont know where anyone said anything about getting rid of Theriot? Ive seen some people talk about not liking Theriot, Im not one of those people. Ive been a fan of Theriot since 2006 when he was still playing 2b. I even went as far to say he is Sandberg without power....I dont know about that now but you get my point. The truth is even if this kid is great he wont be up for another couple years! Dont worry everybody we still have a few years with Theriot left!

 

[Lefty]

Did you not read the rest of my post, tool? I addressed the individual player issue...

Please, you brought up a bunch of subjective bullshit that means nothing. Actually learn what PECOTA is, THEN take issue with SPECIFIC things it says or does. Just saying "DAH TEH EMOTIONZZZ!!" just makes you look desperate and stupid.

 

[nrthsidrfan]

PECOTA predicts the Nationals to finish 83-81. I'm not buying that...

I'm gonna take Greg Maddux's opinion over PECOTA's statistical analysis. There are parts of baseball that a formula can't account for. Is a player having family troubles? Is a player clinically depressed? Etc...

Maddux is the best pitcher the generation (arguably)...and he got shelled in the minors. Hitters don't take walks in the minors, man. They all want to stand out, and they all flail at everything...which explains low walks and high Ks...

Agreed. I'm from the "Moneyball" camp that believes that when applied right statistics shed light on talent.

However, you simply cannot just look at a spreadsheet and say. Nope, these numbers say he'll never be a good pro player. You've gotta take a mix of the qualitative and quantitative looks. A stat sheet can't tell you that a kid that was working 3-2 counts and ultimately striking out is now taking that 3-2 slider off the plate because coaching and experience have helped him to do that, now can it?

So far this spring he looks like a 23 yr old kid that is starting to hit his stride and ALL I'm saying is lets give him a look and see what he can do in Tennessee over the rest of the summer.

 

[Lefty]

Agreed. I'm from the "Moneyball" camp that believes that when applied right statistics shed light on talent.

However, you simply cannot just look at a spreadsheet and say. Nope, these numbers say he'll never be a good pro player. You've gotta take a mix of the qualitative and quantitative looks. A stat sheet can't tell you that a kid that was working 3-2 counts and ultimately striking out is now taking that 3-2 slider off the plate because coaching and experience have helped him to do that, now can it?

Obviously there are things that statistics cannot tell you, and they never will. However, that does not mean that projection systems like PECOTA, Davenport Translations or the MLE's that Bill James created 25 years ago are wrong, because the studies show that they have done a stellar job of predicting and forecasting.

 

[ZAN]

Explain the Tyler Colvin situation, then, Lefty....

His knock was that he couldn't take a walk either. Bob said it all ST long...

Now the kid takes TOO many pitches...

Let's hear it...

 

[Grace's Slumpbusters]

So far this spring he looks like a 23 yr old kid that is starting to hit his stride and ALL I'm saying is lets give him a look and see what he can do in Tennessee over the rest of the summer.

You mean you werent saying throw Theriot off the top of Wrigley, put this kid in the lineup tomorrow?

Hell we should pinch hit with him in the game right now!!

TONY THOMAS FOR PRESIDENT!!

*Can anyone detect sarcasm?

 

[nrthsidrfan]

Obviously there are things that statistics cannot tell you, and they never will. However, that does not mean that projection systems like PECOTA, Davenport Translations or the MLE's that Bill James created 25 years ago are wrong, because the studies show that they have done a stellar job of predicting and forecasting.

I COMPLETELY agree, and I'm not trying to argue with you man. Bill James and many of his disciples encompass everything that is right with baseball statistics. I'm just happy to see that a high (3rd rd) pick in the Cubs farm system is really raking this spring AND has taken 11 walks already. So, lets see what he can do the rest of the summer and hopefully his hot start can pan out to being more than just a hot start.

 

[nrthsidrfan]

You mean you werent saying throw Theriot off the top of Wrigley, put this kid in the lineup tomorrow?

Hell we should pinch hit with him in the game right now!!

TONY THOMAS FOR PRESIDENT!!

*Can anyone detect sarcasm?

Actually that was exactly what I was saying! hahahaha

 

[Lefty]

Explain the Tyler Colvin situation, then, Lefty....

His knock was that he couldn't take a walk either. Bob said it all ST long...

Now the kid takes TOO many pitches...

Let's hear it...

You mean, OTHER than the fact that he's only had 48 PA's thus far this season? I mean, perhaps he HAS figured it out, but there's an equally good chance that his run thus far this season has been the result of luck.