Top 10 FA's according to MLBTR. Which one would you want on the Cubs?

[brett05]

Why isn't Shark on the list?

 

[CSF77]

Just a thought but you could probably play Heyward in CF in wrigley. I don't think the cubs will have the money for both him and a top tier starter though unless they trade for a cost controlled one.

There will be plenty of pitching options on the market.

There are 2 clear needs going on next year. CF and a 5th SP. In AA they have Almora hitting around .230. Not really outstanding. It feels like a lost year to me. But his D is still top notch.

Johnson should have been in AAA this year but has gone through his 2nd DL stint with the team. Last one was not a major concern but took time.

So in 2 years both could be on the team. Hammels is under contract for another year. So Johnson should back fill his rotation spot. But that doesn't affect the 5th spot. So that need is not going away.

CF...I have felt that theyt should move Baez out there. Hoyer went out and said that Baez has had a trying year with his sister's death and his DL stint and wanted him to stick in AAA for now. Mostly for stability. (Wish we had Baez's input on this because I doubt he feels this way). It felt like a excuse to keep the promote Baez wave at bay. They went on to say that they will be using Coghlan at 3B/2B also after Montero gets back. That means Szczur will get demoted again. I see the only other change being LaStella for Herrera before the rosters expand. Baez would be part of the expanded rosters and that part will be limited with the team in contention.

It should be interesting to see what direction they end up going. With pitching being deeper than CF on the market it might make sense to use Castro and Almora to net a younger CF with plus D/lead off skills. Not thinking of anyone in particular (Gardner or Ellsbury).

 

[beckdawg]

There will be plenty of pitching options on the market.

There are 2 clear needs going on next year. CF and a 5th SP. In AA they have Almora hitting around .230. Not really outstanding. It feels like a lost year to me. But his D is still top notch.

Johnson should have been in AAA this year but has gone through his 2nd DL stint with the team. Last one was not a major concern but took time.

So in 2 years both could be on the team. Hammels is under contract for another year. So Johnson should back fill his rotation spot. But that doesn't affect the 5th spot. So that need is not going away.

CF...I have felt that theyt should move Baez out there. Hoyer went out and said that Baez has had a trying year with his sister's death and his DL stint and wanted him to stick in AAA for now. Mostly for stability. (Wish we had Baez's input on this because I doubt he feels this way). It felt like a excuse to keep the promote Baez wave at bay. They went on to say that they will be using Coghlan at 3B/2B also after Montero gets back. That means Szczur will get demoted again. I see the only other change being LaStella for Herrera before the rosters expand. Baez would be part of the expanded rosters and that part will be limited with the team in contention.

It should be interesting to see what direction they end up going. With pitching being deeper than CF on the market it might make sense to use Castro and Almora to net a younger CF with plus D/lead off skills. Not thinking of anyone in particular (Gardner or Ellsbury).

In regards to CF, I've said it a number of times but I honestly think they will bring back Fowler on a QO or take the draft pick and find someone similar to him. I mean you could try Baez there in theory but then who leads off? Russell? And what if he struggles? Presumably Cogs isn't playing a major role next year. Unfortunately, Baez just isn't really the right profile of a hitter they pretty much have to have out of CF due to other prospects being in typical lead off hitter roles at SS/2B. Fowler is the exact type of hitter they have to have out of CF which clearly is why they traded for him in the first place.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Price. Adding another TOR starter makes that pitching staff elite and I also think they'll go after Tyson Ross or Carlos Carrasco again in the offseason after finding out both younger pitchers are available at the right price. Hendricks would likely go in a deal for either. As far as a bat I don't think they'll turn to FA for one. I think they may offer Fowler a qualifying offer and he might take it. If not they'll pick up a CF in trade.

 

[FrankieLyrical]

Why isn't Shark on the list?

He got an honorable mention later in the article, not sure why he isn't/wasn't top 10 though

 

[CSF77]

In regards to CF, I've said it a number of times but I honestly think they will bring back Fowler on a QO or take the draft pick and find someone similar to him. I mean you could try Baez there in theory but then who leads off? Russell? And what if he struggles? Presumably Cogs isn't playing a major role next year. Unfortunately, Baez just isn't really the right profile of a hitter they pretty much have to have out of CF due to other prospects being in typical lead off hitter roles at SS/2B. Fowler is the exact type of hitter they have to have out of CF which clearly is why they traded for him in the first place.

QO I believe is 16 mil. Too much for what he brings. 9 mil is borderline

Plus that amount counts against getting a starter. So QO on him may end up getting Kaz vs Price.

 

[JZsportsfan]

Why isn't Shark on the list?

I could see him coming in at 9 or 10 on the list, no higher

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I could see him coming in at 9 or 10 on the list, no higher

Agreed. I'd put him ahead of Mike Leake myself but he's no higher than the 5th best pitcher in this FA class now so 9th or 10th is where he would land. At the beginning of this year I think most people assumed he'd get $140-$150 million in FA, at this point I think $110 is about right.

 

[Boobaby1]

Just a thought but you could probably play Heyward in CF in wrigley. I don't think the cubs will have the money for both him and a top tier starter though unless they trade for a cost controlled one.

And I fully believe that is coming, and I am leaning more for them trading off to get the position player they are needing.

A TOR pitcher in trade would probably empty a lot of the farm.

 

[Boobaby1]

Why isn't Shark on the list?

Because it isn't Shark week? :thinking:

 

[Boobaby1]

There will be plenty of pitching options on the market.

There are 2 clear needs going on next year. CF and a 5th SP. In AA they have Almora hitting around .230. Not really outstanding. It feels like a lost year to me. But his D is still top notch.

Johnson should have been in AAA this year but has gone through his 2nd DL stint with the team. Last one was not a major concern but took time.

So in 2 years both could be on the team. Hammels is under contract for another year. So Johnson should back fill his rotation spot. But that doesn't affect the 5th spot. So that need is not going away.

CF...I have felt that theyt should move Baez out there. Hoyer went out and said that Baez has had a trying year with his sister's death and his DL stint and wanted him to stick in AAA for now. Mostly for stability. (Wish we had Baez's input on this because I doubt he feels this way). It felt like a excuse to keep the promote Baez wave at bay. They went on to say that they will be using Coghlan at 3B/2B also after Montero gets back. That means Szczur will get demoted again. I see the only other change being LaStella for Herrera before the rosters expand. Baez would be part of the expanded rosters and that part will be limited with the team in contention.

It should be interesting to see what direction they end up going. With pitching being deeper than CF on the market it might make sense to use Castro and Almora to net a younger CF with plus D/lead off skills. Not thinking of anyone in particular (Gardner or Ellsbury).

I am thinking more of Blackmon or Pollock myself.

 

[SilenceS]

No one is saying he is having a bad year.

Let me ask you this. If I am going to trade any of the parent level rookies possibly for a CF'er or a package deal for a pitcher, is it going to be Soler?

Doesn't he possess the best trade package right now as far as amount and length of contract?

Also, if I have the chance to get Jason Heyward, I am also doing it. I would like to have Heyward, Rizzo, and Schwarber as my main lefties in the line-up, and I wouldn't mind having Bryant, Baez, Russell and (?) in CF as possibly the righties.

I don't want to pay Hayward 20 million a year. I don't think we trade for a CF. Basically, I have the total opposite opinion of you.

 

[beckdawg]

QO I believe is 16 mil. Too much for what he brings. 9 mil is borderline

Plus that amount counts against getting a starter. So QO on him may end up getting Kaz vs Price.

$16 mil is roughly 2 WAR in FA as wins last year were around $7.5 mil and probably will go up. You clearly don't like Fowler but to say he's not worth $16 is pretty ignorant of FA pricing. Fowler has fairly consistently been a 2 fWAR player over a full season. Hell Angel Pagan 3 years ago got 4 years $40 mil. Additionally, you're not factoring in the length of the QO. Who are you going to go out and get for 1 year who's any where close to what Fowler would be? You presumably want to keep your options open there for Almora or Happ considering both are still some what highly regarded players.

Ultimately the cubs don't really have much of a choice. If Alcantara had shown more this year then sure go with him but you can't go into next year with the hope that he or Baez is an every day centerfielder especially when you're talking about a team that should challenge for a playoff spot. And your FA options other than him aren't exactly stellar. Austin Jackson is worse than Fowler. Colby Rasmus is probably also and he additionally isn't a lead off hitter. Rajai Davis is going to be 35 and isn't better. Drew Stubbs isn't an every day player anymore. So that leaves you Fowler and Denard Span as the two options for any team needing a CFer.

So, I see one of two things happening. Either the cubs QO him or they offer him a 3-4 year deal at something less than $16 mil a year. The simple fact of the matter is there aren't many choices out there and you had guys like Melky Cabrera and Nick Markakis getting 3-4 year deals worth $40 mi+.

Also, if Fowler stops them from getting Price they weren't getting him to begin with because you can't go into FA thinking you're a lock to get someone when $5 mil in wiggle room is all you have in your budget.

 

[Boobaby1]

I don't want to pay Hayward 20 million a year. I don't think we trade for a CF. Basically, I have the total opposite opinion of you.

We will differ on this.

I want a gold glover in the outfield, especially since Schwarber will never be one if he stays out there.

Fowler is no world beater in CF, so even if the Cubs re-sign him, the outfield is mediocre at best.

Heyward is 25. Have you seen his OBP to go along with his defense?

A QO for Fowler is 16 million, but paying Heyward 20 million is not worth it?

He runs well, hits for power, is a lefty, and a GG defender.

I wouldn't mind having Schwarber on one side and Heyward on the other. That is 20.5 million, or 10.5 million on average for the both of them in the next three years. Pretty good bang for your buck I'd say for a 22 year old and a 25 year old.

 

[beckdawg]

A QO for Fowler is 16 million, but paying Heyward 20 million is not worth it?

I wouldn't mind Heyward and actually mentioned I wished the cubs would find a way to trade for him this past offseason. With that being said, that's not really an apples to apples comparison. It's not $16 mil for Fowler and $20 mil for Heyward. It's more like $16 mil for Fowler and 7 years $153 mil+ for Heyward given that's what Ellsbury got and given Heywards age I think his agent could make a good argument that he's worth more.

 

[brett05]

Shark for me would slot 6

 

[TL1961]

Why isn't Shark on the list?

Because it is TOP 10?

Because it is a list of FA's that teams will actually WANT?

 

[CuttyMarsh2012forOffice]

David Price. Grienke is not going to post as good of numbers in 2016 as he is now. Price will be consistent.

Chris Davis would be fun to watch. He would rake Wrigley Field and can play both infield and outfield corners

 

[Boobaby1]

I wouldn't mind Heyward and actually mentioned I wished the cubs would find a way to trade for him this past offseason. With that being said, that's not really an apples to apples comparison. It's not $16 mil for Fowler and $20 mil for Heyward. It's more like $16 mil for Fowler and 7 years $153 mil+ for Heyward given that's what Ellsbury got and given Heywards age I think his agent could make a good argument that he's worth more.

I know the length of the contract is not apples to apples.

My point was that if I am going to spend money, I want it in a certain place with a certain kind of player.

Fowler is not that player. Heyward is.

The Cubs have a bounty of young talent that is going to keep payroll down. Most of the bigger money is tied up in the pitching staff and may continue.

Even if Heyward gets seven years. He will still only be 32 at the end of his contract.

I like players that get on better than a third of the time. I like it even more when they are left handed, have some power, and are a gold glover.

Strictly my opinion, but I think Heyward would drastically change the dynamics of the team being that he is a young veteran like Rizzo.

A leader in the infield, and a leader in the outfield.

 

[beckdawg]

I know the length of the contract is not apples to apples.

My point was that if I am going to spend money, I want it in a certain place with a certain kind of player.

Fowler is not that player. Heyward is.

The Cubs have a bounty of young talent that is going to keep payroll down. Most of the bigger money is tied up in the pitching staff and may continue.

Even if Heyward gets seven years. He will still only be 32 at the end of his contract.

I like players that get on better than a third of the time. I like it even more when they are left handed, have some power, and are a gold glover.

Strictly my opinion, but I think Heyward would drastically change the dynamics of the team being that he is a young veteran like Rizzo.

A leader in the infield, and a leader in the outfield.

My only point is you're really not signing Fowler for the same reason you would sign Heyward. If they QO/sign Fowler as I assume they will it's to keep open their long term options for Almora/Happ/Alcantara not because Fowler is a francise changing player. If you sign Heyward on the other hand it's a move you make probably in tandem with a trade of some of your young players for something else. For example, there was talk of a Soler for Teheran trade. If you can make that trade and then sign Heyward then you'd essentially be using the money presumed to go to a top tier starter for Heyward instead and swapping cost controlled hitter for a cost controlled pitcher.

I don't think either way would be technically "wrong" but I think they are just different means to an end. A lot of cubs fans are down on Almora and I get that. He's not progressed quite as fast as the other top tier picks have. But it's entirely possible the cubs front office still likes him every bit as much as they did when they drafted him. I mean he's only 21 and while he's hit .234/.250/.355 and .247/.298/.365 over roughly 500 AA PAs that belies the fact his BABIP the past two years has been .267 and .259. From rookie ball through A+ his BABIP was in a .305-.368 range. So you're talking 30-50 points his average and OBP could swing. An additionally he's posted the highest walk rate of his career at 6.7% thus far this year to go along with basically his lowest k rate at any stop over 80 PAs.

If you're the cubs I can find it easy to believe that next year very well could be a break through year for him once he starts to put that walk rate and more selectivity to use. That's basically what happened with Junior Lake over the offseason where many were ready to throw him out as trash. And if you're willing to buy that then going after someone like Heyward might not be the move you want to make.

Ultimately, I think it probably comes down to how they address pitching first. If you get a Teheran, Ross, Carassco type with cheap salary and Heyward is sitting there... I mean you'd be silly not to consider him. But he's more of a "nice to have" addition rather than something they don't currently have in the pitching department.