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BY CIAN FAHEY
@QBDataMine
Trey Lance is Josh Allen
Some draft analysts are about to show themselves up.
Trey Lance is a Josh Allen calibre and style of prospect. His primary value comes in his athletic ability, he's got a huge arm and that's about it. He doesn't throw with accuracy to any level of the field and doesn't show off the kind of nuanced understanding of the position that you want to see from your starting quarterback.
It's very difficult to justify a dismissal of Lance if you celebrated Allen. And many, many analysts celebrated Allen in spite of his obvious flaws.
Furthermore, Lance is playing at NDSU. NDSU can also be referred to as Carson Wentz's school. The level of competition that Wentz faced was never a big component of the conversation when he was coming out. It rarely even got mentioned in any discussion of his outlook.
It's very difficult to justify a dismissal of Lance if you celebrated Wentz. And many, many analysts celebrated Wentz in spite of who he played against.
A cursory google search of notable draft analysis content revealed both of those issues are coming up for Lance. The explanations aren't exactly convincing.
Talking up Lance isn't the answer here.
Lance doesn't look like an NFL quarterback either. He's very, very similar to Josh Allen despite protestations from Chris Simms. Outside of the mental testing and whiteboard tests that coaches run with prospects privately, everything we can see about Lance's skill set is what we saw in Allen's skill set.
Lance had 288 pass attempts in college and ran the ball 177 times. His offence was run-heavy to the extreme and he was at the center of their running game. He has a very broad skill set as a runner. Like Cam Newton, he will be an effective power runner between the tackles in the NFL. Like Allen, he will excel when the play breaks down and he scrambles.
The offence that brings Lance in will at the very least be able to run a package of plays with him early in his career. He's unlikely to ever be a straight dropback passer but he can potentially develop his passing at a later stage while still providing immediate value as a runner.
In the above long touchdown, the most impressive part is how he escapes past the immediate defenders. Those are slower defensive linemen but they had an angle to close on him at the line of scrimmage. Lance's acceleration was impressive.
His long speed then allowed him to reach the endzone. Of course, this is against James Madison athletes and not NFL athletes.
That was a staple of his game in college. He could turn runs that should have gained some yards into huge gains. The defence had to fear giving up conversions on Third-and-Long to Lance as a runner more than they did as a passer. That probably won't be the case in the NFL, he's not Lamar Jackson, but there will be a need to gameplan for what he can do as a ball carrier.
Instead of Allen or Wentz, Taysom Hill might make more sense as a comparison for the immediate stages of Lance's career.
The NDSU passing game was built off of the run. It was a simple, limited design that heavily relied on misdirection and play action. Throwbacks to an uncovered receiver after rolling the pocket to the opposite side of the field were the primary way in which the passing game created big plays.
Hitting tight windows or throwing with anticipation weren't features of Lance's passing profile. He also rarely showed off an understanding of the leverage of the coverage he was throwing into.
On the above interception, Lance uses play-action and looks for his receiver down the seam. The deep safety never bought on the fake and Lance never checked his positioning. That allowed the safety to read his eyes and undercut the ball easily.
Plenty of quarterback prospects come out of simple schemes. The simple scheme in itself isn't the issue. The inconsistency executing it is.
The tight end is wide open on the back end of this play fake. This is about as easy as it gets in terms of downfield throws in the NFL. Lance isn't even close. And that's the standard of his throws, not the exception.
If your primary selling point as a quarterback prospect is your athleticism, you better be effective throwing on the move. Coaches can roll pockets for you or you can make up for mistakes inside structure by making plays outside structure late in the down. Lance didn't show that kind of command as a passer.
On this rollout his ball is so far off its intended target it almost looks like it was an intentional throwaway.
When Mitch Trubisky came out of college, he had no clue what he was doing in his offence and didn't play a lot. Trubisky similarly had great athleticism and a big arm. He and Lance will likely be compared but there was a clear difference between the two as Trubisky, while not being refined or consistent as a passer, had moments of exceptional accuracy.
It wasn't just that he showed off his big arm and created highlight plays, he had an ability to put the ball in the perfect spot to lead his receivers away from the coverage.
That gave you hope that Trubisky would develop into a stud on the next level. He might have away from Matt Nagy but chances are it was always unlikely. Lance doesn't even have those moments of excellence to offset his constant inaccuracy.
Prior to this miss in the James Madison game, Lance had two deep throws where the ball landed five yards infield of its intended receiver. This miss was actually the best of his misses because he got it to the right tramline just inside of the sideline. The ball was just overthrown by five yards.
Lance being able to generate this velocity so easily should in theory make it easier for him to be accurate. The fact that he's so far off so consistently suggests that he simply doesn't have that innate accuracy that the best quarterbacks have. He can't see the throw he's trying to make.
His mechanics can be pointed to as reason for optimism or further pessimism.
On this play, Lance's lack of awareness and slow process gets him in trouble. His elongated throwing motion makes it easy for the defender to knock the ball free. While this isn't technically a passing play, this is how Lance throws the ball. If his next coaching staff is able to change his mechanics, then maybe his accuracy gets better.
But changing a quarterback's mechanics is extremely difficult. Surpassed, that changing them is just the first step. Your quarterback needs to keep them there after they've learned a new method. Josh Allen did it for a year, that doesn't guarantee he'll continue to do it next year.
Tom Brady's consistency with his mechanics allowed him to extend his career into his 40s. Most quarterbacks are not as consistent with how they deliver the ball. For quarterbacks who start in a worse spot, the inconsistency has a greater impact game-to-game and season-to-season.
Along with a technical rebuild, Lance also needs to develop a mental profile of an NFL passer.
On this throw we can see an ineffective pass that highlights Lance's arm strength again. He should be intercepted as the ball lands too far infield and was released too late. More importantly, Lance threw to the wrong receiver. His shallow drag was turned loose underneath.
Lance actually pump fakes to that receiver before throwing into the coverage. That tells us he's not actually diagnosing what's happening in front of him and making assumptions with his decisions. His process is not what it needs to be.
Considering the defence was in man coverage here, he should have been anticipating the shallow receiver coming open. This isn't like picking an open receiver who the quarterback never had a realistic shot of seeing.
We also don't know if he can pick up blitzes. In the NDSU offence, the quarterback was a running threat and built into the running play designs so defences weren't getting to tee off on him with disguised coverages and blitzes all the time. When they did use disguises or blitz, it was easy to confuse Lance.
His eyes would go to the wrong side of the field, he wouldn't see his hot route and he'd move his feet before his eyes. Sometimes he could break the incoming tackle attempts but more often than not he just ran himself into problems that he could have thrown past.
If I didn't know that Lance was being discussed as a first-round pick I'd have assumed he was a late-round pick or moving position. The skill set just isn't there and there's far too much development needed to actually expect him to come good.
Maybe it happens. Maybe he follows the development path of those that have come before him.
The question is: What point in the draft does that hope become a worthy investment? Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick and a much better prospect. Third-round picks on quarterbacks are largely pointless because they never get real development opportunities and the cost is relatively high for that.
As such, Lance probably doesn't become worthwhile as a quarterback until the fourth round. But if you're trying to rotate an athlete into your established offence, then maybe you can justify a higher cost in the draft. Sean Payton loves his Taysom Hill change-up, so there is a blueprint there.
@QBDataMine
Trey Lance is Josh Allen
Some draft analysts are about to show themselves up.
Trey Lance is a Josh Allen calibre and style of prospect. His primary value comes in his athletic ability, he's got a huge arm and that's about it. He doesn't throw with accuracy to any level of the field and doesn't show off the kind of nuanced understanding of the position that you want to see from your starting quarterback.
It's very difficult to justify a dismissal of Lance if you celebrated Allen. And many, many analysts celebrated Allen in spite of his obvious flaws.
Furthermore, Lance is playing at NDSU. NDSU can also be referred to as Carson Wentz's school. The level of competition that Wentz faced was never a big component of the conversation when he was coming out. It rarely even got mentioned in any discussion of his outlook.
It's very difficult to justify a dismissal of Lance if you celebrated Wentz. And many, many analysts celebrated Wentz in spite of who he played against.
A cursory google search of notable draft analysis content revealed both of those issues are coming up for Lance. The explanations aren't exactly convincing.
Talking up Lance isn't the answer here.
Lance doesn't look like an NFL quarterback either. He's very, very similar to Josh Allen despite protestations from Chris Simms. Outside of the mental testing and whiteboard tests that coaches run with prospects privately, everything we can see about Lance's skill set is what we saw in Allen's skill set.
Lance had 288 pass attempts in college and ran the ball 177 times. His offence was run-heavy to the extreme and he was at the center of their running game. He has a very broad skill set as a runner. Like Cam Newton, he will be an effective power runner between the tackles in the NFL. Like Allen, he will excel when the play breaks down and he scrambles.
The offence that brings Lance in will at the very least be able to run a package of plays with him early in his career. He's unlikely to ever be a straight dropback passer but he can potentially develop his passing at a later stage while still providing immediate value as a runner.
In the above long touchdown, the most impressive part is how he escapes past the immediate defenders. Those are slower defensive linemen but they had an angle to close on him at the line of scrimmage. Lance's acceleration was impressive.
His long speed then allowed him to reach the endzone. Of course, this is against James Madison athletes and not NFL athletes.
That was a staple of his game in college. He could turn runs that should have gained some yards into huge gains. The defence had to fear giving up conversions on Third-and-Long to Lance as a runner more than they did as a passer. That probably won't be the case in the NFL, he's not Lamar Jackson, but there will be a need to gameplan for what he can do as a ball carrier.
Instead of Allen or Wentz, Taysom Hill might make more sense as a comparison for the immediate stages of Lance's career.
The NDSU passing game was built off of the run. It was a simple, limited design that heavily relied on misdirection and play action. Throwbacks to an uncovered receiver after rolling the pocket to the opposite side of the field were the primary way in which the passing game created big plays.
Hitting tight windows or throwing with anticipation weren't features of Lance's passing profile. He also rarely showed off an understanding of the leverage of the coverage he was throwing into.
On the above interception, Lance uses play-action and looks for his receiver down the seam. The deep safety never bought on the fake and Lance never checked his positioning. That allowed the safety to read his eyes and undercut the ball easily.
Plenty of quarterback prospects come out of simple schemes. The simple scheme in itself isn't the issue. The inconsistency executing it is.
The tight end is wide open on the back end of this play fake. This is about as easy as it gets in terms of downfield throws in the NFL. Lance isn't even close. And that's the standard of his throws, not the exception.
If your primary selling point as a quarterback prospect is your athleticism, you better be effective throwing on the move. Coaches can roll pockets for you or you can make up for mistakes inside structure by making plays outside structure late in the down. Lance didn't show that kind of command as a passer.
On this rollout his ball is so far off its intended target it almost looks like it was an intentional throwaway.
When Mitch Trubisky came out of college, he had no clue what he was doing in his offence and didn't play a lot. Trubisky similarly had great athleticism and a big arm. He and Lance will likely be compared but there was a clear difference between the two as Trubisky, while not being refined or consistent as a passer, had moments of exceptional accuracy.
It wasn't just that he showed off his big arm and created highlight plays, he had an ability to put the ball in the perfect spot to lead his receivers away from the coverage.
That gave you hope that Trubisky would develop into a stud on the next level. He might have away from Matt Nagy but chances are it was always unlikely. Lance doesn't even have those moments of excellence to offset his constant inaccuracy.
Prior to this miss in the James Madison game, Lance had two deep throws where the ball landed five yards infield of its intended receiver. This miss was actually the best of his misses because he got it to the right tramline just inside of the sideline. The ball was just overthrown by five yards.
Lance being able to generate this velocity so easily should in theory make it easier for him to be accurate. The fact that he's so far off so consistently suggests that he simply doesn't have that innate accuracy that the best quarterbacks have. He can't see the throw he's trying to make.
His mechanics can be pointed to as reason for optimism or further pessimism.
On this play, Lance's lack of awareness and slow process gets him in trouble. His elongated throwing motion makes it easy for the defender to knock the ball free. While this isn't technically a passing play, this is how Lance throws the ball. If his next coaching staff is able to change his mechanics, then maybe his accuracy gets better.
But changing a quarterback's mechanics is extremely difficult. Surpassed, that changing them is just the first step. Your quarterback needs to keep them there after they've learned a new method. Josh Allen did it for a year, that doesn't guarantee he'll continue to do it next year.
Tom Brady's consistency with his mechanics allowed him to extend his career into his 40s. Most quarterbacks are not as consistent with how they deliver the ball. For quarterbacks who start in a worse spot, the inconsistency has a greater impact game-to-game and season-to-season.
Along with a technical rebuild, Lance also needs to develop a mental profile of an NFL passer.
On this throw we can see an ineffective pass that highlights Lance's arm strength again. He should be intercepted as the ball lands too far infield and was released too late. More importantly, Lance threw to the wrong receiver. His shallow drag was turned loose underneath.
Lance actually pump fakes to that receiver before throwing into the coverage. That tells us he's not actually diagnosing what's happening in front of him and making assumptions with his decisions. His process is not what it needs to be.
Considering the defence was in man coverage here, he should have been anticipating the shallow receiver coming open. This isn't like picking an open receiver who the quarterback never had a realistic shot of seeing.
We also don't know if he can pick up blitzes. In the NDSU offence, the quarterback was a running threat and built into the running play designs so defences weren't getting to tee off on him with disguised coverages and blitzes all the time. When they did use disguises or blitz, it was easy to confuse Lance.
His eyes would go to the wrong side of the field, he wouldn't see his hot route and he'd move his feet before his eyes. Sometimes he could break the incoming tackle attempts but more often than not he just ran himself into problems that he could have thrown past.
If I didn't know that Lance was being discussed as a first-round pick I'd have assumed he was a late-round pick or moving position. The skill set just isn't there and there's far too much development needed to actually expect him to come good.
Maybe it happens. Maybe he follows the development path of those that have come before him.
The question is: What point in the draft does that hope become a worthy investment? Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick and a much better prospect. Third-round picks on quarterbacks are largely pointless because they never get real development opportunities and the cost is relatively high for that.
As such, Lance probably doesn't become worthwhile as a quarterback until the fourth round. But if you're trying to rotate an athlete into your established offence, then maybe you can justify a higher cost in the draft. Sean Payton loves his Taysom Hill change-up, so there is a blueprint there.
