Trubisky's Progression from week to week....stats and technique review

modo

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keep in mind a lot of those yards aren't from amazing passes but our defense springing Randall Cobb by being out of position.


correct.....some work can be attributed to work done after the pass.....but the intermediate passing game needs to get more YAC
 

nc0gnet0

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Lets compare Aaron Rodgers, the goat, to Trubisky this year in terms of throw depth and success this year


Aaron Rodgers

20+ - 3 of 15 for 130 yards

10 to 20 - 8 of 19 for 232 yards

1 to 10 - 48 of 59 for 351 yards

los or less - 18 of 29 for 119 yards


Mitch Trubisky

20+ - 3 of 15 for 128 yards

10 to 20 - 6 of 13 for 60 yards

1 to 10 - 38 of 48 for 291 yards

los or less - 24 of 27 for 92 yards



Conclusions


Rodgers and Trubisky are nearly identical on deep passes......

Nearly identical on short passes

Rodgers got more effeciency on LOS or less passes but nearly identical

The big difference is the intermediate passes where Rodgers got ridiculous production, but Mitch has been more accurate......


So is Trubisky potentially close?


Obviously a big difference is TD passes......Rodgers' WRs whether it is routes run or other factors get more production out of short and intermediate passes

Wasn't Rodgers out nearly a half though? That is kinda significant in the short sample size. Plus, he has been hurt since game one.
 

modo

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Wasn't Rodgers out nearly a half though? That is kinda significant in the short sample size. Plus, he has been hurt since game one.
No he was out only a couple series.....

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Toast88

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I said before the season started I was going to give him to the end of the year as well, but after seeing how dominant the defense is, I think I got ahead of myself and started being really hard on him. I didn't expect to have this level of D, and the QB play is the main hindrance in this team going deep into post season. Trying to get back on track, but man he's looked shaky at best.

I hear you. I think it's completely fair and accurate to say he's holding this team back---which wouldn't matter as much if the Bears weren't currently in sole possession of first place. The sudden emergence of the Bears as possible playoff contenders, I think, has caused most of us to look at the quarterback position with a more critical eye, which also seems fair given the circumstances.
 

nc0gnet0

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No he was out only a couple series.....

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And you don't think he has been hurt enough to effect his stats?

Your dead on on the intermediate stuff though.
 

modo

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If he's playing hurt it doesn't seem to affect his game.....

My main point, as you see I added Goff, was to point out the intermediate passing game. Not the long throws that our fans seem to be caught up on.

We really haven't seen our offense try and produce those yet on a regular basis.

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Alterego

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Well, Yes no, maybe. Only looking at averages can be deceiving. One or two long toss's can skew the average quite a bit. More curious to see the mean, than the average. Not sure if I am explaining myself well, but not unlike a RB that is averaging 2 yards a carry, then has one long gainer for 60 yards, upping his YPC to 6+. Then again, maybe I am wrong, but it seems to me MT's improvements has been as much about play calls and managing him as much as it is actual improvement in fundamentals. Granted, that is just an eye test and not hard number crunching.

Hello, math geek here. Mean == average. Are you referring to the median?
 

modo

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nc0gnet0 I did Stafford for you



Pilsbury Dough Boy

20+ - 4 of 13 for 147 yards

10 to 20 - 16 of 33 for 278 yards

1 to 10 - 51 of 57 for 367 yards

los or less - 21 of 24 for 112 yards



Stafford was helped out by short passes....his guys did some work for him.....also the intermediate passing game is there and the long passing game isn't used a lot and close to other QBs


While Trubisky did have some more LOS or less passes they are that much different than other QBs

The difference is production from those passes and the intermediate area....

people need to stop getting hung up on the LOS passes.....as I have shown it isn't much different than some other sample QBs.
 

modo

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We are operating on a small sample size here, but I think it is enough to get my point across
 

Novak

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basically for a clean pocket with time to plant.......on some of the quick screens they are literally hike and throw.....not counting those....Mitch doesn't miss them...sometimes he does have time to plant and throw.......

on throws where he is on the move and throwing, not counting those.....

throws where he is hit when throwing...not counting those....even if he has good technique....only happened once I think

only throws where he is in the pocket throwing and has a legit amount of time to set and throw.....

The good is when he can plant the front foot and move his body in a proper throwing motion....

The bad is when he has time but doesn't set or he throws off the back foot or his body doesn't progress thru the proper throwing motion.



I knew the whole screen and short pass thing would come up...that is why I included the Yards per attempt stat....

Doing this, how quickly did it take you to realize that Trubisky has a clean pocket to plant and throw from almost never?
 

TexasBearfan

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nc0gnet0 I did Stafford for you



Pilsbury Dough Boy

20+ - 4 of 13 for 147 yards

10 to 20 - 16 of 33 for 278 yards

1 to 10 - 51 of 57 for 367 yards

los or less - 21 of 24 for 112 yards



Stafford was helped out by short passes....his guys did some work for him.....also the intermediate passing game is there and the long passing game isn't used a lot and close to other QBs


While Trubisky did have some more LOS or less passes they are that much different than other QBs

The difference is production from those passes and the intermediate area....

people need to stop getting hung up on the LOS passes.....as I have shown it isn't much different than some other sample QBs.

Trubisky's draft profile comp was Stafford, he sure looked great slicing up the Patriots the other night
 

WindyCity

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This offense is running almost identical to the Chiefs last season in terms of short vs long passing.

If you look at Intended Air Yards, or every throws distance in the air even if not caught, they are identical.

2018 Trubisky: 7.4
2017 Smith: 7.4

The difference comes in the completed air yards, because Mitch as missed his deep throws.
 

WindyCity

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Trubisky's draft profile comp was Stafford, he sure looked great slicing up the Patriots the other night

He also melted down and lost to the Lions.

This is all happening in his 10th season.

QB development and production is not linear and often not very consistent.
 

TexasBearfan

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He also melted down and lost to the Lions.

This is all happening in his 10th season.

QB development and production is not linear and often not very consistent.

Stafford's been playing 10 years? holy crap I need to sign up for Medicare
 

modo

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This offense is running almost identical to the Chiefs last season in terms of short vs long passing.

If you look at Intended Air Yards, or every throws distance in the air even if not caught, they are identical.

2018 Trubisky: 7.4
2017 Smith: 7.4

The difference comes in the completed air yards, because Mitch as missed his deep throws.


that isn't the difference....Mitch's deep throw percentage and production is nearly identical to most QBs.....it is the intermediate stuff......it isn't there...as in they haven't thrown there

They have not used burton up the middle seem routes and they are using a lot of hitches....
 

modo

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Doing this, how quickly did it take you to realize that Trubisky has a clean pocket to plant and throw from almost never?


that isn't true.......the Packer game he had enough time to throw....I think 30 passes where he planted.....he didn't do well

second game gave him more designed rollouts so it is cloudy on whether he would had time if he was mainly pocket passing.....

third game was a blitz fest......Trubisky actually did well against the blitz, perhaps his best game in having pocket presence....also coincides with his best game with yards per attempt.....
 

Bears_804

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that isn't the difference....Mitch's deep throw percentage and production is nearly identical to most QBs.....it is the intermediate stuff......it isn't there...as in they haven't thrown there

They have not used burton up the middle seem routes and they are using a lot of hitches....
I wonder if Trubisky built rapor with Shaheen on those middle seem routes like you see Kelce running. He did that last year well.
 

modo

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I wonder if Trubisky built rapor with Shaheen on those middle seem routes like you see Kelce running. He did that last year well.


the seem routes are coming. I promise you. Burton will run those soon.....

Gabriel has had most of the deep seem routes. They have not been many.

Burton hasn't run a single one. At some point they will go against their tendencies that they have shown. I wonder if Nagy believes that Mitch is ready to start throwing the over the middle inter mediate stuff.....we'll see soon enough.
 

WindyCity

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that isn't the difference....Mitch's deep throw percentage and production is nearly identical to most QBs.....it is the intermediate stuff......it isn't there...as in they haven't thrown there

They have not used burton up the middle seem routes and they are using a lot of hitches....

I was comparing him to Smith in this offense last year.

The difference between what we look like now and what the Chiefs were doing last season is that Smith was connecting on his deep passes.

The actual design of the offense is the same.
 

modo

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I was comparing him to Smith in this offense last year.

The difference between what we look like now and what the Chiefs were doing last season is that Smith was connecting on his deep passes.

The actual design of the offense is the same.

so looking back at Smith......throw his first 3 weeks he was 6 of 9 in deep passes and 3 of 8 on intermediate stuff.....yes some truth to what you said when comparing directly to KC

Nagy doesn't seem to thru that stuff early I guess....

looking at the next 3 weeks on intermediate passes 14 of 25.........


So my guess is we will see some more this week if he holds true to his history
 

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