Tyrus Thomas to extend or not to extend

reignman · Mar 30, 2009

Letting him walk away for nothing after investing in his development would be silly. He might even end up at a backup for a reasonable contract, but you can't just let him walk!

dunkside.com · Mar 30, 2009

dougthonus wrote:

Tyrus is one of those guys I wonder about if he'll still work once he gets paid. He's been harder to get into the gym than a lot of our other players so far for the team.

For all the time Deng and Hinrich were supposed to be spending in the gym, they both actually regressed.

Tyrus said he'd work on his jumper in the offseason and I think the results are obvious: better form, better FT%, makes some jumpers. He still needs to work on it, get his confidence up (sometimes he looks like he's hesitating to shoot them), and then work some more on it. But I like what I see so far. If next season he comes back with an improved jumper, I can easily see him scoring 15 points per game.

I think that if he will probably get around 10 mil/season next year. Signing him for 7 mil per or less is a dream. The Bulls overpaid for Hinrich and Deng (and I said it at the time) and if they attempt to fix it by low balling Tyrus they might lose him for nothing.

The Bulls should be happy if they can get him for around 9 mil/season. That would be a steal.

dougthonus wrote:

If we lock him up, Tyrus will become a poison pill player which will make it extremely difficult to move him in a trade this season, Tyrus would likely be involved with a trade for Bosh/Amare if we made one, so it could really lower those odds.

I'd rather have Tyrus at 9-10 mil per than Amare at 20 per. Honestly. Contracts in the 10 mil range are much easier to move if needed. Don't forget that Amare became such a good scorer after getting Nash AND working on his jumper. If Tyrus works on his game he could become a decent scorer and half the salary and without the overinflated ego. Cause if you worry about Tyrus being a little crazy and then talk about getting Amare ... well ...

Fred wrote:

The guy can block shots, but here we are in year 3, and he consistently screws up defesively on htat common play. He also was pathetic in the first on Foster, who managed to get 2 key, easy offensive rebounds that led to Pacer baskets.

Actually, from a minutes played pov, he's similar to a 2nd year player. His next year can be considered his 3rd, and since generally 3rd year players have a jump in production, I expect him to have it too.

As for defense, I wonder how much he was coached and how well. I could see him against the Raptors always trying to hang by the basket to help out his teammates. This kept leaving Bargnani open for 3s over and over and over. I doubt he was doing it on his own, I guess that was Vinnie's "plan". And it sucked. Just like leaving Salmons on the bench.

Bulls' big men always look better after they leave and you have to wonder why. Get the guy proper coaching and I think he'd blossom.

In the end I wouldn't talk extension unless it was less than 10 mil per, but I'd do so fully knowing that chances are he'll have a great season and I'd have to pay around 10 mil next summer.

What I would do instead would be to get rid of Hinrich's and Deng's inflated salaries so I can become a player on the FA market in 2010.

dougthonus · Mar 30, 2009

Bulls' big men always look better after they leave and you have to wonder why. Get the guy proper coaching and I think he'd blossom.

I don't really think Bulls big men have looked better after leaving.

Marcus Fizer? No.

Elton Brand? Not really, he had one year about 4 years after leaving that stood out, but otherwise has looked the same.

Eddy Curry? No. His best season IMO was the 04/05 one that ended with his heart condition issue. His stats were better 2 years later under Isiah, but it was at great detriment to the team.

Tyson Chandler? Probably. However, his 04/05 season still represents about as many skills as he's ever had. He just started playing with an elite PG after that. His team tried to dump him for an expiring. I will still give you Tyson as a guy who improved, but out of our lotto pick big men who've left, that's only 1 of the 4 who's improved after leaving and even with him you can make the case that it's Chris Paul who improved him rather than anything he was coached to do.

dunkside.com · Mar 30, 2009

I don't count Fizer. True, Tyson is the one I've been thinking about, but even Ben Wallace looks better now with the Cavs than he did with the Bulls.

And just because his cheap owner wanted to save some cash after foolishly throwing 13mil/season at Peja doesn't make Chandler worse.

In fact I think everything was so much perimeter oriented with Skiles that once big men got away from him they showed improvement. I think you can argue the same about Tyrus and Noah who are now looking much better than last season, and I expect them to continue to improve.

Bulls' bigmen evolution aside, I am curious what you think about the rest of the points I made in my post.

Morten Jensen · Mar 30, 2009

Agreed.

Elton even declined a tad defensively the first few years in LA, but then stepped up again and basically played up to his Bulls level. Obviously, when you look at the return from Brand, then it matters very little.

DASMACKDOWN · Mar 30, 2009

The only player the Bulls will lock up early will be Derrick Rose.

I can definitely see Tyrus not getting locked up at the end of the year. They will wait, as they have all their other players.

dougthonus · Mar 30, 2009

dunkside.com wrote:

I don't count Fizer. True, Tyson is the one I've been thinking about, but even Ben Wallace looks better now with the Cavs than he did with the Bulls.

I don't think ben Wallace looks better now. His first year in Chicago was quite a bit better statistically than his time in Cleveland. His second year in Chicago (up until the deadline) he completely bailed on the team and stopped caring because he's simply put, a jerk.

And just because his cheap owner wanted to save some cash after foolishly throwing 13mil/season at Peja doesn't make Chandler worse.

No, but if Chandler was really good, they wouldn't be looking to dump him. His per36 minute numbers which equalize minutes out in Chicago in the 04/05 season are basically superior on the glass, blocking shots, and stealing to anything he did in NO ever. The only difference is he has a higher FG% in NO due to having an elite PG who sets him up with a ton more wide open dunks than he ever got in Chicago.

The theory that his offensive game has improved in any tangible way is a fallacy though. Even in NO the best he ever averaged was 12 points per 36 minutes and that was on low FG attempts due to the wide open dunks. That's below anything Tyrus has ever done, and I still consider him someone who struggles offensively.

Tyson has been marginally better in NO, but he hasn't improved in any of the statistical defensive metrics, and his offense hasn't really improved per minute just his efficiency which is a direct correlation to getting an elite PG setting him up for easy shots and not due to his own maturation IMO.

He's presently really struggling this year as well.

Of course, this is sort of side note to the rest of the discussion. I just wanted to discuss this, because it's something I often here Bulls fans lament about, how much better players look when they leave, but I don't think there are many examples of that since Paxson has been GM, I don't think anyone has really left and made me feel that badly.

In fact I think everything was so much perimeter oriented with Skiles that once big men got away from him they showed improvement. I think you can argue the same about Tyrus and Noah who are now looking much better than last season, and I expect them to continue to improve.

I agree that the way Skiles used big men was an issue at times. However, he got them to be very good at big men things. Eddy Curry was a better defender on the Bulls than on the Knicks by a million. Defense is the number one thing you need out of a center. Tyson was a better rebounder and shot blocker on the Bulls than on the Hornets, those are key things you need out of a center.

I do think Skiles was not interested in developing players weaknesses as much as he wanted them to avoid their weaknesses and solely focus on their strengths. There are some pluses and minuses to that approach.

VDN has given the guys more leeway, I think there are strengths and minuses with that approach too. I think it's very good for both Tyrus and Noah though, Tyrus because I think he needs the leeway to see what he can become, and Noah because he's a smart enough guy to play within his skillset anyway.

As for your other points. I think Tyrus will earn less than 10 million per year. It's a new economy, and while he has potential, he may never be an all star caliber player. Watch what Marvin Williams gets this off season and then figure that Tyrus is going to get a similar contract when he's up for one. Though it will always depend whether it's a buyers or sellers market when Tyrus is out there.

Ben B. · Mar 30, 2009

dunkside.com wrote:

I'd rather have Tyrus at 9-10 mil per than Amare at 20 per. Honestly. Contracts in the 10 mil range are much easier to move if needed. Don't forget that Amare became such a good scorer after getting Nash AND working on his jumper. If Tyrus works on his game he could become a decent scorer and half the salary and without the overinflated ego. Cause if you worry about Tyrus being a little crazy and then talk about getting Amare ... well ...

Wow. I approach that question completely differently. IF Amare could be relied upon, health-wise, then I would much rather have him at twice the salary. This is a stars' league. It's usually a lot more valuable to have one really excellent player, a guy who can carry the team reliably, than two pretty good players at the same total, combined salary. I like Tyrus, and I always root for him, but he's never going to be a 20+ppg scorer and he doesn't have a much better rebound rate than Amare, either. He blocks more shots and he's a better defender, but let's face it: Tyrus isn't an elite defender. An elite defender can't be relied upon to give up mondo points to Toronto's frontcourt every time they play. Amare scores more points than he gives up, and that's the main thing.

My priorities are:
1.) Trade Tyrus for either Amare or Bosh;
2.) Let him play the year without an extension and possibly trade him by the deadline if we can get someone really good;
3.) Sign him the year after only if we seem likely to get shut out on the really outstanding 2010 FAs.

dougthonus · Mar 30, 2009

My priorities are:
1.) Trade Tyrus for either Amare or Bosh;
2.) Let him play the year without an extension and possibly trade him by the deadline if we can get someone really good;
3.) Sign him the year after only if we seem likely to get shut out on the really outstanding 2010 FAs.

Hard to argue with that.

The goal should always be to concentrate as much talent as you can in as few bodies as you can. Teams have proven time and again that good role players are frequently attracted to superstar cores of players.

Look at Boston or look at the Bulls. When you have a chance to win a title, other guys will fill in the gaps for you far before they'll fill them in for Memphis or the Clippers.

NOELAD82 · Mar 30, 2009

Put me in the definetly no catogery. I have watched him and while he has improved it has been very slow going and I feel pretty strongly that if he is the long term PF here that we are pairing with Rose than we aren't going very far. I think he makes a great trading piece for Amare or Bosh if there teams are looking to move them, and as Doung pointed out signing him now compromises that. If we cant worka trade this summer than we can always resign him next year. But frankly I dont see TT being the type of guy who works hard to improve after getting his payday. He still gripes to the ref's as though he is a vet who has earned it rather then a young player who hasn't proven a thing.

Dpauley23 · Mar 30, 2009

Just keeping to trade for Bosh hopefully. Another interesting player that could come the Bulls way from them acquiring Bosh is Dwight Howard. Bosh and Howard have been talking about playing together and if Orlando doesn't win any championships you never know.

ryguy24 · Mar 30, 2009

NOELAD82 wrote:

Put me in the definetly no catogery. I have watched him and while he has improved it has been very slow going and I feel pretty strongly that if he is the long term PF here that we are pairing with Rose than we aren't going very far. I think he makes a great trading piece for Amare or Bosh if there teams are looking to move them, and as Doung pointed out signing him now compromises that. If we cant worka trade this summer than we can always resign him next year. But frankly I dont see TT being the type of guy who works hard to improve after getting his payday. He still gripes to the ref's as though he is a vet who has earned it rather then a young player who hasn't proven a thing.

I think Doug has his new nickname for when he falls out of favor (AKA Ding/Dung) haha.

But yeah, it's risky business. I said that I would lean towards doing it (provided we get some sort of discount), but then again you might just want to play it safe and wait it out. Obviously though, trying for StoudeBosh would be priority one.

NOELAD82 · Mar 30, 2009

ryguy24 wrote:

I think Doug has his new nickname for when he falls out of favor (AKA Ding/Dung) haha.

But yeah, it's risky business. I said that I would lean towards doing it (provided we get some sort of discount), but then again you might just want to play it safe and wait it out. Obviously though, trying for StoudeBosh would be priority one.[/quote]

Sorry Doug...typos happen dude.

Anyway, the idea of signing a player on the cheap always intrigues me because well I'm a thrifty guy. But I think TT looks much more attractive to PHX or TOR as a player on a rookie deal they can choose to sign or let go as an expiring rather then a player on a relativley slamm contract, who may or may not ever amount to much. Besides, if we dont resign this summer and wait till next summer is it really going to amount to that much more $? I doubt TT just busts out as a 20/10 guy and we are talking the summer of 2010 here...teams are going to be focusing on the stars not the wannabe's like TT.

Dpauley23 · Mar 30, 2009

The one thing that annoys me about Tyrus is that he never dives to basket on the pick and roll. He always takes his stupid jumper

ryguy24 · Mar 30, 2009

NOELAD82 wrote:

ryguy24 wrote:

I think Doug has his new nickname for when he falls out of favor (AKA Ding/Dung) haha.

But yeah, it's risky business. I said that I would lean towards doing it (provided we get some sort of discount), but then again you might just want to play it safe and wait it out. Obviously though, trying for StoudeBosh would be priority one.

Sorry Doug...typos happen dude.
[/quote]

Wasn't saying it to be mean or like it mattered, just poking a little fun at a joke from RealGM (don't know if you post there).

NOELAD82 · Mar 30, 2009

Its all good man. I dont post on REALGM but I do troll there. Thats actually where I learned about this site. I'm a big fan of the BULLSBEAT.

dunkside.com · Mar 30, 2009

Ben B. wrote:

Wow. I approach that question completely differently. IF Amare could be relied upon, health-wise, then I would much rather have him at twice the salary. This is a stars' league. It's usually a lot more valuable to have one really excellent player, a guy who can carry the team reliably, than two pretty good players at the same total, combined salary. I like Tyrus, and I always root for him, but he's never going to be a 20+ppg scorer and he doesn't have a much better rebound rate than Amare, either. He blocks more shots and he's a better defender, but let's face it: Tyrus isn't an elite defender. An elite defender can't be relied upon to give up mondo points to Toronto's frontcourt every time they play. Amare scores more points than he gives up, and that's the main thing.

My priorities are:
1.) Trade Tyrus for either Amare or Bosh;
2.) Let him play the year without an extension and possibly trade him by the deadline if we can get someone really good;
3.) Sign him the year after only if we seem likely to get shut out on the really outstanding 2010 FAs.

i agree it's a stars' league. however, by watching the league i came to the conclusion that you won't win if you pay max dollar to a guy who's not really a superduperstar. those are the guys who are not just good on their own, but have leadership abilities, play both ends of the floor and make their teammates better. the list is short, VERY short. duncan, wade, lebron, howard, garnett. perhaps cp3. probably kobe too, but i have to see him winning a title before i put his name on the list. and yeah, i know lebron, cp3 and dwight didn't win any title yet. still playing ex-superduperstars: shaq and kidd. i can't think of anyone else right now.

and you can see what happens when a team has a guy who's not a superduperstar and pays him a max contract: they are good, but not good enough to win it all. dallas, phoenix, denver, houston and others: they all have star players, but they are not good enough. amare is not good enough. he just isn't.

i explained my plan in another thread. the short version: dump deng and hinrich for expirings (ideally camby and dampier or someone else), make a play for lebron AND wade (if one signs an extension, the other + bosh) and then depending on who you got, sign your own FA - miller and camby might play for very little money if it meant playing with wade and lebron and the very real chance at a title. in this scenario you could keep tyrus or let him go depending on your needs.

i could see a team with rose, wade, lebron, tyrus, camby and salmons and miller coming off the bench. with wade and lebron you only need some D and rebounding from the PF and C positions so tyrus and camby would fit well. as i said before, a big risk, but i'd take it. and if i miss on lebron and wade, i still have rose, tyrus, noah and a boatload of capspace.

***

in the end, what i was saying about tyrus was not that the bulls should extend him now, but they should think that allowing him to become a restricted FA might cost them quite a lot.

Dpauley23 · Mar 30, 2009

How are we going to get both Lebron and Wade?

Newskoolbulls · Mar 30, 2009

I was thinking about it today and what a bad message it sends out if we give a guy an extension because he just started playing consistently. Let him give us one more year next season and see what offers he gets from other teams.

Dpauley23 · Mar 30, 2009

It doesn't matter if he gets offers, but considering Reinsdorf probably doesn't like him I don't they lock him up

Tyrus Thomas to extend or not to extend

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