Welcome back Mr. Coghlan

[brett05]

Hendricks is not a TOR.

Not saying he is. I'm saying the need of the Cubs have changed and that change is attributable to a degree with Hendricks coming into his own.

 

[beckdawg]

In ref to the starter talk, I'm honestly wondering if we're missing something here. 90% of what Bosio has touched as turned to gold. Hendricks is pitching well above his tools. Hammel/Feldman/Maholm did as well. If Lackey's number's hold this will be his highest career k/9, his second lowest bb/9 and his best ERA. We can really just go down the line here.

That got me to thinking about the idea of the cubs not necessarily needing the most toolsy pitchers. Don't get me wrong here, even as good as Hendricks has been you're not going to coach someone with average tools to be Jake Arrieta. However, you don't have to have plus plus pitches to be a front line starter. I hesitate to talk about pitchers in A ball but it's entirely plausible that you end up with guys like Steele and Sands turning into something despite not being first or even second round picks.

We had this conversation before the season and I mentioned the cubs starters were better than people give them credit for and from a statistical stand point had a good chance to be the best rotation in baseball. Some countered back with them being good but not the best in baseball. Well, we are 1/3 of the way through the season and the cubs starters are #1 in ERA at 2.30 which is almost a full run lower than the Mets. Their FIP is also #1 at 2.97 and in basically any statistical category you want to talk about they are top 5. In a lot of ways it reminds me of the Dave Duncan era Cardinals teams who'd find random starters and turn them into all stars.

 

[Diehardfan]

Even though Arrieta had the tools....how well was he doing before he met up with Bosio?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Even though Arrieta had the tools....how well was he doing before he met up with Bosio?

How good was Arrieta before Baltimore tried to change him?

 

[partlowr]

Isn't it also true that you can't give a QO to a pending FA who was traded during the season? I believe that is the case.

Good Point.
Richard Partlow Dordan

 

[CSF77]

Knowing he doesn't like to take pitches, this could be a showcase for Almora for other teams.

I don't agree with this. If they were planning to long term Fowler then they would have. There is a need in 2017 in CF. if anything Almora is just getting is feet wet under the third tier of a stadium.

Now I do believe that when Soler comes back then Almora will go back to keep his playing time up regardless of how he performs. But if he holds his own then it brings up a interesting trade deadline where they can free up Soler if the right deal is out there

 

[Diehardfan]

How good was Arrieta before Baltimore tried to change him?

No idea. His minor league numbers save for a brief run in 2010....don't look overly impressive. I don't have privy to minor league games, I only saw him in Baltimore.

 

[DanTown]

In ref to the starter talk, I'm honestly wondering if we're missing something here. 90% of what Bosio has touched as turned to gold. Hendricks is pitching well above his tools. Hammel/Feldman/Maholm did as well. If Lackey's number's hold this will be his highest career k/9, his second lowest bb/9 and his best ERA. We can really just go down the line here.

That got me to thinking about the idea of the cubs not necessarily needing the most toolsy pitchers. Don't get me wrong here, even as good as Hendricks has been you're not going to coach someone with average tools to be Jake Arrieta. However, you don't have to have plus plus pitches to be a front line starter. I hesitate to talk about pitchers in A ball but it's entirely plausible that you end up with guys like Steele and Sands turning into something despite not being first or even second round picks.

We had this conversation before the season and I mentioned the cubs starters were better than people give them credit for and from a statistical stand point had a good chance to be the best rotation in baseball. Some countered back with them being good but not the best in baseball. Well, we are 1/3 of the way through the season and the cubs starters are #1 in ERA at 2.30 which is almost a full run lower than the Mets. Their FIP is also #1 at 2.97 and in basically any statistical category you want to talk about they are top 5. In a lot of ways it reminds me of the Dave Duncan era Cardinals teams who'd find random starters and turn them into all stars.

Two problems that are obvious

1. I can name just as many pitchers here who didn't really pitch that much better so it's tough to say "Bosio turns everything to gold"
2. What do you do if Bosio becomes a manager somewhere else?

I don't think the Cubs need to pay full freight and trade for a guy who is already TOR but they do need to get and/or develop a pitcher who can replace Jake's spot in the rotation in two years. They already will have to replace Lackey and Hammel in that time and the guys in AAA just simply don't seem ready.

 

[SilenceS]

I don't agree on Baez's bat being better than Russell's though I suppose it depends on what you mean by that. Baez is hitting .274/.309/.427 on the season and even if we go the ISO route assuming he has more power, he's at .154. Russell is .232/.319/.353 with a .121 ISO but he's also a full year younger. Until I see Baez cover this K rate for probably 2 seasons I'm going to remain skeptical there though it is as I've mentioned before the thing that has made me most excited for him since probably 2013. Overall, though if I'm betting on one I'm going to take Russell with his higher walk rate. He's going to get on base more and Baez has been more variant going from high BABIP swings to doing nothing and every where in between. Given Russell's age I also think you give him some leeway plus he's already proven he can walk at an elite rate so you know at the very least you're getting OBP with him.

With that said, I do agree the cubs can't really deal him right now. I'm on record being pretty skeptical that they would deal either him or Soler during this season. Now that Alcantara's also gone it's extremely unlike in my eyes you move Baez until you start talking about Happ/Torres being ready and even then you're probably talking about Zobrist nearing his end. So, unless Happ is on a fast track to the majors a la Schwarber/Bryant which I doubt he is, I think Baez is probably with the cubs until he's a FA or nearing it.

There is no assuming. He has substantially more power than Russell.

 

[Mr. Cub]

This was interesting..

Kaplan said that his source told him the Cubs had offered a package with either Soler or Baez to Indians for one of their top pitcher and were told no they wanted Russell or Bryant..

If so, guess we cant count out the Cubs still looking to add a young controlled starter at some point using either Soler or Baez as trade bait

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I don't like that. I honestly can't see why the Cubs would be shopping Baez at this point. I do not like.

 

[CubsWin]

What does Alcantara being a "Hendry pick" have to do with the Club "not being so high on him"? He was provided the opportunity to prove himself.

I added that not because I believe they're not so high on him because the Theo regime didn't pick him, but as a possible factor. I honestly don't know. Just throwing possible reasons out there. Sometimes small factors tip things one way or another.

 

[CSF77]

I added that not because I believe they're not so high on him because the Theo regime didn't pick him, but as a possible factor. I honestly don't know. Just throwing possible reasons out there. Sometimes small factors tip things one way or another.

That holds little meaning. Jed said they would not have picked him. But his drive is what has put him into this position. That was an intangible that they did not foresee.

That said Baez has put himself into a situation that he has become a intriguing trade piece and that just relates to how good he has become.

Seriously he has gone from a tools guy to a hell of a ball player. He gives a guy on the bench that you do not skip a beat if a injury happens. He can play 3 positions at plus quality D. Any team would foam at the mouth to get him right now.

That is the reason why he is going no where. You don't trade that away in a contender.

 

[Parade_Rain]

That holds little meaning. Jed said they would not have picked him. But his drive is what has put him into this position. That was an intangible that they did not foresee.

That said Baez has put himself into a situation that he has become a intriguing trade piece and that just relates to how good he has become.

Seriously he has gone from a tools guy to a hell of a ball player. He gives a guy on the bench that you do not skip a beat if a injury happens. He can play 3 positions at plus quality D. Any team would foam at the mouth to get him right now.

That is the reason why he is going no where. You don't trade that away in a contender.

You don't have to agree with it, but someone has to get traded to get a return.

 

[CSF77]

You don't have to agree with it, but someone has to get traded to get a return.

Do they need to deal?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Do they need to deal?

Maybe. Don't know yet. But why not think ahead and be prepared in case it's necessary?

 

[chibears55]

Do they need to deal?

Definitely..

A couple reasons..

Just because someone clicking now doesn't mean he will later in season

There always a spot or two to upgrade

Plus if you're a serious contender, you look ahead to possible playoff opponents and sometimes you add a piece or two to help counter their strength..
Example..adding a tough LH reliever to offset opponent top LH bats

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[CSF77]

Definitely..

A couple reasons..

Just because someone clicking now doesn't mean he will later in season

There always a spot or two to upgrade

Plus if you're a serious contender, you look ahead to possible playoff opponents and sometimes you add a piece or two to help counter their strength..
Example..adding a tough LH reliever to offset opponent top LH bats

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I mean deal where you lose a valuable player.

This is the way I'm looking at it. We know that Hammel and Fowler are F/A at the end of the year. They have Almora who pretty much is the heir to CF. Zobrist becomes the lead off with Happ as his replacement.

AAA has no one that is standing out. Williams had been injured but he is another over achiever type. No LH starters worth a damn. Johnson had been injured too much for my tastes.

Add to it there is Hammel's track record of bad 2nd halves. I can see why there is concern going on.

But first I would never trade for a bullpen arm. Never worth it.

So I would see how Hammel progresses first. His last 2 starts has been so so. But this is after he was pulled early. I would monitor him at this point and make a decision closer to the dead line.

 

[chibears55]

I mean deal where you lose a valuable player.

This is the way I'm looking at it. We know that Hammel and Fowler are F/A at the end of the year. They have Almora who pretty much is the heir to CF. Zobrist becomes the lead off with Happ as his replacement.

AAA has no one that is standing out. Williams had been injured but he is another over achiever type. No LH starters worth a damn. Johnson had been injured too much for my tastes.

Add to it there is Hammel's track record of bad 2nd halves. I can see why there is concern going on.

But first I would never trade for a bullpen arm. Never worth it.

So I would see how Hammel progresses first. His last 2 starts has been so so. But this is after he was pulled early. I would monitor him at this point and make a decision closer to the dead line.

I agree there..

I said in another thread that i doubt in any trade that they would trade away an almost ready prospect that they plan on using for themselves..
Especially Contreras, and Almora

They could trade Happ if that part of what it takes to bring in say a TOR type player in return..
2bmen arent too hard to find.

I think any trade they make will be them using guys that are blocked unless it for that under 30 controlled future TOR starter they want.. then we may see Soler Happ McKinney type of players go..

But one thing for sure, i trust that Epstein wont trade away a player unless he has a backup in place or in mind

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[beckdawg]

We know that Hammel and Fowler are F/A at the end of the year.

Technically neither of those are true. Fowler has a mutual option that he almost assuredly will decline but if he passes and the cubs choose to retain him he could be back. Hammel has a $10 mil team option or a $2 mil buyout. If Hammel doesn't fall off in the second half he'd be a rather decent value at $10 mil. Now, sure the team could deal for a starter with the idea of replacing him but it's not a case of them having to.