What expectations do you have for the Cubs this season?

[Rush]

Good or bad?

 

[JP Hochbaum]

The Cubs have done a great job of adding more contact to balance out the power in their lineup. If Wisdom can hit above .250 and K around 25% of the time, we will look damn solid.
Pitching is the big question mark. If pitching can be about league average I think we can compete for a wild card spot as their ceiling.

 

[beckdawg]

I think this team will be better than expectations solely because they've invested heavy in defense and to an extent in bullpen depth. They should in my estimation win closer games better than they have in the past. And the thing with that is even something as small as 4 one run games can be the difference between a 77-85 record and a 85-77 record. I know some will be concerned about their pitching but I'm less so because they've brought in ground ball heavy pitchers backed by a strong infield defense save for 1B which matters less. Miley has a career 49.1% Gb rate. Mills is at 49.9%. Hendricks is 46.8%. Stroman is at 57.4%. Assuming Smyly is the other arm he's a FB pitcher at 36.5%. For reference, league average in 2021 was 42.9% so the other 4 are pretty heavy ground ball favored comparatively.

To me the big question is more about where they score runs. They are going to need new faces to step up. And even then I think best case they are a fringe shot at winning the division. But I don't think they are insanely far off from being watchable.

 

[CSF77]

First of all I don't feel that Wisdom will factor into the Cubs success.

The #1 factor will be Smyly. I feel that he might end up the best pick up this year. He has looked like a legit #3 out of the gate.
The #2 factor will be Happ. If he stalls this team will end up lacking a LH power threat. (This is why Wisdom is a non factor/He is another face in a line up of RH power hitters)

The rest should work itself out. But these two factors IMO really will tell if they are + or - .500 going into June.

A minor factor could be Rivas. If he is legit then it moves Schwindel to DH and adds a solid LH bat. But this is a stretch at best being a factor. But a welcome addition.

Other than that. I expect Heyward to be under 100 wRC+ the further under your might see Ortega taking CF back.

About it. Right now they are .500 and could be far worse. I don't see much higher unless teams just stall the first 2 months and the Cubs come out playing solid baseball. Could happen but it would be hot air at best.

 

[CSF77]

I think this team will be better than expectations solely because they've invested heavy in defense and to an extent in bullpen depth. They should in my estimation win closer games better than they have in the past. And the thing with that is even something as small as 4 one run games can be the difference between a 77-85 record and a 85-77 record. I know some will be concerned about their pitching but I'm less so because they've brought in ground ball heavy pitchers backed by a strong infield defense save for 1B which matters less. Miley has a career 49.1% Gb rate. Mills is at 49.9%. Hendricks is 46.8%. Stroman is at 57.4%. Assuming Smyly is the other arm he's a FB pitcher at 36.5%. For reference, league average in 2021 was 42.9% so the other 4 are pretty heavy ground ball favored comparatively.

To me the big question is more about where they score runs. They are going to need new faces to step up. And even then I think best case they are a fringe shot at winning the division. But I don't think they are insanely far off from being watchable.

D should be solid. As I said above Rivas proving that he is a MLB talent vs a AAAA talent pushes Schwindel to DH. Rivas has a plus glove at 1B thus improving a team strength.

The best scenario that could come out of this year is Rivas taking over 1B. Schwindel proving last year was not a fluke. Frazier forcing playing time thus pushing Happ back to CF and Frazier taking over LF.

The team would line up as:

Madrigal 2B
Suzuki RF
Happ CF
Schwindel DH
Contreras C
Villar 3B
Frazier LF
Rivas 1B
Hoerner SS

I see this line up as having the most potential for the first half of the season. Even if they are bad it impacts trade value of short term.

Pitching you have to push Smyly and Miley out there as much as you can. Same as above. Short term value trade chips.

If they win that is fine. If they are bad and the short term players hold trade value the Cubs still win.

 

[DrGonzo]

To be honest I kind of made a deal with the universe that if they won a championship in my lifetime I would agree not to have any expectations after that. Now they are rebuilding I just enjoy the ups and don't worry about the downs

 

[Diehardfan]

First of all I don't feel that Wisdom will factor into the Cubs success.

The #1 factor will be Smyly. I feel that he might end up the best pick up this year. He has looked like a legit #3 out of the gate.
The #2 factor will be Happ. If he stalls this team will end up lacking a LH power threat. (This is why Wisdom is a non factor/He is another face in a line up of RH power hitters)

The rest should work itself out. But these two factors IMO really will tell if they are + or - .500 going into June.

A minor factor could be Rivas. If he is legit then it moves Schwindel to DH and adds a solid LH bat. But this is a stretch at best being a factor. But a welcome addition.

Other than that. I expect Heyward to be under 100 wRC+ the further under your might see Ortega taking CF back.

About it. Right now they are .500 and could be far worse. I don't see much higher unless teams just stall the first 2 months and the Cubs come out playing solid baseball. Could happen but it would be hot air at best.

I nearly stopped reading after Smyly but I hung in there and was surprised that I prettymuch agreed with everything else you had to say. I think you're right about Wisdom. He is nothing more than a lower level Dave Kingman.....he will never get his SO in the 25% range so I wouldn't expect a whole lot out of him. But I'm expecting even less out of Smyly.....injury prone soft toss lefty....he's closer to being DFA'd than being a #3 starter.

 

[CSF77]

Miley starting out on the DL.

Well 'for the Cubs'. Yes he is a #3.

If he is a league #3? No. Has he been pre injury? No.

Does he have that top end? Yes. Will he? Wait and see.

Like I said he should end up the best pick up. $4.25M with a 2023 option. That is nickels for a SP.
Miley is getting paid 10M and on the DL.
Suzuki 5M bonus and 7M.

So as far as value. If Smyly puts up 2 fWAR he is a steal.

Another that could be in this catagory is Frazier. 1.5M. even as a part time player that is not difficult to perform up to.

So ya these guys have solid trade value. Jed paid less than half Atl did last year for Smyly. If Smy pushes out solid numbers a team is looking at cheap plus control next year.... Ya so potentially he holds really decent trade potential.

.now if you are talking about competitive no. Jed did not spend to be that. He made some interesting signings with a eye for trading. If they out perform great. But that is not what 2022 is about. It is a punt year and the signings were for a purpose.

 

[85Bears]

he's closer to being DFA'd than being a #3 starter.

This. I was...underwhelmed...by the Smyly signing.

I, too, agreed to never expect anything from the Cubs again if they would just win one in my lifetime. Which is good, because I just don't see it this year. Odds of making the playoffs imho: ~40%

 

[CSF77]

Earlier this spring, Ross noted that Steele had a Minor League option, but the manager has since indicated strongly that the lefty will be in the Cubs' rotation. Smyly, while open to helping in relief, has also been told he is going to start.

Mills has a track record of performing better on a starter's routine (4.13 ERA when pitching with four or five days of rest) than as a reliever (5.24 ERA). Thompson had a taste of starting and relieving as a rookie in 2021 with mixed results (2.43 ERA in 26 relief outings vs. a 5.51 ERA in six starts).

This. I was...underwhelmed...by the Smyly signing.

An average full-time position player is worth about 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically between 0 and 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR.

Smyly:

Post injury:
2019 -.3
2020 +.9
2021 +.4

Pre injury
2012 1.8
2013 1.8
2014 2.3
2015 1.0
2016 1.8

So ya it is fair to frown on Smyly as a major acquisition.

But 2022 teams on avg are paying 8.5M.WAR. All he needs to produce is .5 and Jed has made good on his investment.

$/WAR, 2+ Projected WAR Players

Offseason	2+Proj WAR
2018	$9.3 M/WAR
2019	$7.8 M/WAR
2020	$9.5 M/WAR
2021	$5.5 M/WAR
2022	$8.5 M/WAR

 

[CSF77]

To be fair Miley has his work cut out to equal his check this year. Starting up on the IL with inflammation doesn't bode well.

On the other hand Jed bought Smyly based off the current market value for WAR and Smyly's WAR from last year. I think we can say Jed made a smart last minuet buy with him.

End of the day it is deals like this that gives Jed what his true goal this year is. Trading short term for long term. He loaded up with guys like this. So the whole we aim to compete is fluff. He invested into trade chips.

Aug-Sept should be more watchable as Davis, Kilian and Marquez should be cracking the team. Wicks might be a reach as I believe he will end up on a innings limit on his first full season.