What happens if Vegas is right?

[iueyedoc]

Odds makers have the Bears as underdogs in 14 of 17 games what happens with the coaching staff and GM if this holds true?

At what point does it being Fields rookie season not save Pace and Nagy?

I can't see bringing back Nagy if they go 3-14. What do you think the break point for George is with Nagy? Pace? 3-14? 6-11? 7-10?

I can't see Nagy surviving 6-11 or worse. Pace is a tougher call, the McCaskeys seem to have a lot of faith in him.

Odds are stacked against the Chicago Bears in 2021 — at least according to Las Vegas bookmakers​

By Brad Biggs

Chicago Tribune |

May 18, 2021 at 11:16 AM




The odds are stacked against the Chicago Bears once again in 2021.

At least, that’s the position they find themselves in right now with Las Vegas oddsmakers.

Westgate SuperBook released point spreads for the entire season, and in the initial numbers, the Bears are favorites in only three of their 17 regular-season games.

This should not be surprising considering the Bears were favored only three times last season in an 8-8 year. The addition of quarterback Justin Fields to the mix has excited not only those in the building at Halas Hall, but also the fan base. It’s unknown when Fields will take the field and how the gambling public would react.




Oddsmakers set lines with the goal of attracting even money on each side, which ensures a profit for the house on every game with 10% vigorish, or juice. Popular public teams are ones with high-powered scoring machines — and the Bears have not had that kind of offense for a very long time.

The Bears were not popular with Las Vegas oddsmakers last season, when they were 4½-point favorites over the New York Giants in Week 2 (a 17-13 win). They didn’t go off as a favorite again until Week 13, when they were three-point favorites at Soldier Field against the Detroit Lions for what was a 34-30 loss. The third and final time the Bears were favored was three weeks later, when they were 9½-point favorites before crushing the Jacksonville Jaguars 41-17.

The Bears did win six games as an underdog last season, and it’s important to realize all of the lines listed below can move significantly between now and game week. Any number of factors can swing the odds, and if the Bears get hot and Fields breaks through, they could find themselves favored several more times. Oddsmakers are in the business of making money for the house, and they usually adjust quickly.

Even as the Bears got off to a good start last season — winning five of their first six games — they didn’t convince oddsmakers they should be favored with any kind of regularity. Maybe that changes in 2021.

The Chicago Bears’ 2021 schedule is out. Here are our game-by-game predictions. »

Here’s a look at the opening lines for all 17 weeks at Westgate SuperBook:

Sept. 12 at Los Angeles Rams

Rams are favored by 7 points, 44½ over/under

Sept. 19 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bears are favored by 3½ points, 45½ over/under

Sept. 26 at Cleveland Browns

Browns are favored by 7 points, 44½ over/under

Oct. 3 vs. Detroit Lions

Bears are favored by 5½ points, 44½ over/under

Oct. 10 at Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders are favored by 3½ points, 46½ over/under

Oct. 17 vs. Green Bay Packers

Packers are favored by 2½ points, 46 over/under

Oct. 24 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers are favored by 10 points, 48 over/under

Oct. 31 vs. San Francisco 49ers

49ers are favored by 4 points, 44½ over/under

Nov. 8 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers are favored by 5½ points, 45½ over/under

Nov. 21 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens are favored by 3½ points, 45½ over/under

Nov. 25 at Detroit Lions

Lions are favored by 3½ points, 45 over/under

Dec. 5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals are favored by 1½ points, 46 over/under

Dec. 12 at Green Bay Packers

Packers are favored by 5½ points, 45½ over/under

Dec. 20 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Vikings are favored by 1 point, 42½ over/under

Dec. 26 at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks are favored by 5½ points, 45 over/under

Jan. 2 vs. New York Giants

Bears are favored by 2 points, 42 over/under

Jan. 9 at Minnesota Vikings

Vikings are favored by 4 points, 45½ over/under

 

[KennyH]

If the bookmakers are right - it would depend on when Fields starts

If he starts at home to Detroit and then leads the team on a nine game losing streak, Nagy will be gone. If he starts the last two games and looks good, Nagy stays.

But pre season odds are never much of an indication - no one knows (yet) what the Bears will look like this season. Too many new faces and a few key players coming back.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

I think they finish 7-10 or 8-9.

 

[and 69 others]

It's really not as bad as it looks. The lines will obviously fluctuate depending on where the money goes, so this is very fluid.

There's games against teams like the Vikings that you know the Bears really should be favorites since they own their asses.

I'd say Bears should be favorite against both Vikings games, 2nd Lions game, Cinci, Giants & Vegas.

 

[gallagher]

I guess I see things differently, but I wouldn't judge Nagy harshly for how a rookie QB performs. I'd judge him based on how Fields looks in year two, because he will have had an off-season to work on what he showed the previous year.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

It's May 19th.

 

[iueyedoc]

I guess I see things differently, but I wouldn't judge Nagy harshly for how a rookie QB performs. I'd judge him based on how Fields looks in year two, because he will have had an off-season to work on what he showed the previous year.

Does he still not need to lead a competitive team on the field? If he were to fail that this next season that would be 3 years in a row of a team known to have zero chance at success, and would likely be his 4th year in 4 tries of leading an extremely substandard offense. What would be the argument for not replacing him?

 

[iueyedoc]

It's May 19th.

11:27am

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

11:27am

I have 11:30am, but I think you get my point. Vegas oddsmakers should have zero say on what the Bears do with their coaching staff.

 

[vabearsfan15]

Ummmm Fields would be the QB by the 5th or 6th game at the latest in such a scenario. And that scenario includes Dalton winning 3 games....so to say Fields loses double digit amount of games is ridiculous

 

[iueyedoc]

I have 11:30am, but I think you get my point. Vegas oddsmakers should have zero say on what the Bears do with their coaching staff.

The point of the OP is not about Vegas odds, but what happens if the Bears season ends up very much like what is the current betting expectations.

 

[benplace]

The Bears have to be the hardest team for Vegas to call.
Just last year we lose to the Lions but beat the Bucs. Who knows what the Bears will do.
They are consistently inconsistent.
To answer the original question, if we go 3-14 Nagy is without a doubt gone. Pace too, no way he gets to pick another coaching staff.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

The point of the OP is not about Vegas odds, but what happens if the Bears season ends up very much like what is the current betting expectations.

The current betting expectations on May 19th?

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

What if?

What happens?

Oh no!!

I fucking hate the offseason some days. The Bears got a shiny new QB and some beef block..... let's all just pull an AR and R E L A X.

 

[Bearly]

Odds makers have the Bears as underdogs in 14 of 17 games what happens with the coaching staff and GM if this holds true?

At what point does it being Fields rookie season not save Pace and Nagy?

I can't see bringing back Nagy if they go 3-14. What do you think the break point for George is with Nagy? Pace? 3-14? 6-11? 7-10?

I can't see Nagy surviving 6-11 or worse. Pace is a tougher call, the McCaskeys seem to have a lot of faith in him.

Odds are stacked against the Chicago Bears in 2021 — at least according to Las Vegas bookmakers​

By Brad Biggs

Chicago Tribune |

May 18, 2021 at 11:16 AM




The odds are stacked against the Chicago Bears once again in 2021.

At least, that’s the position they find themselves in right now with Las Vegas oddsmakers.

Westgate SuperBook released point spreads for the entire season, and in the initial numbers, the Bears are favorites in only three of their 17 regular-season games.

This should not be surprising considering the Bears were favored only three times last season in an 8-8 year. The addition of quarterback Justin Fields to the mix has excited not only those in the building at Halas Hall, but also the fan base. It’s unknown when Fields will take the field and how the gambling public would react.




Oddsmakers set lines with the goal of attracting even money on each side, which ensures a profit for the house on every game with 10% vigorish, or juice. Popular public teams are ones with high-powered scoring machines — and the Bears have not had that kind of offense for a very long time.

The Bears were not popular with Las Vegas oddsmakers last season, when they were 4½-point favorites over the New York Giants in Week 2 (a 17-13 win). They didn’t go off as a favorite again until Week 13, when they were three-point favorites at Soldier Field against the Detroit Lions for what was a 34-30 loss. The third and final time the Bears were favored was three weeks later, when they were 9½-point favorites before crushing the Jacksonville Jaguars 41-17.

The Bears did win six games as an underdog last season, and it’s important to realize all of the lines listed below can move significantly between now and game week. Any number of factors can swing the odds, and if the Bears get hot and Fields breaks through, they could find themselves favored several more times. Oddsmakers are in the business of making money for the house, and they usually adjust quickly.

Even as the Bears got off to a good start last season — winning five of their first six games — they didn’t convince oddsmakers they should be favored with any kind of regularity. Maybe that changes in 2021.

The Chicago Bears’ 2021 schedule is out. Here are our game-by-game predictions. »

Here’s a look at the opening lines for all 17 weeks at Westgate SuperBook:

Sept. 12 at Los Angeles Rams

Rams are favored by 7 points, 44½ over/under

Sept. 19 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bears are favored by 3½ points, 45½ over/under

Sept. 26 at Cleveland Browns

Browns are favored by 7 points, 44½ over/under

Oct. 3 vs. Detroit Lions

Bears are favored by 5½ points, 44½ over/under

Oct. 10 at Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders are favored by 3½ points, 46½ over/under

Oct. 17 vs. Green Bay Packers

Packers are favored by 2½ points, 46 over/under

Oct. 24 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers are favored by 10 points, 48 over/under

Oct. 31 vs. San Francisco 49ers

49ers are favored by 4 points, 44½ over/under

Nov. 8 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers are favored by 5½ points, 45½ over/under

Nov. 21 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens are favored by 3½ points, 45½ over/under

Nov. 25 at Detroit Lions

Lions are favored by 3½ points, 45 over/under

Dec. 5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals are favored by 1½ points, 46 over/under

Dec. 12 at Green Bay Packers

Packers are favored by 5½ points, 45½ over/under

Dec. 20 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Vikings are favored by 1 point, 42½ over/under

Dec. 26 at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks are favored by 5½ points, 45 over/under

Jan. 2 vs. New York Giants

Bears are favored by 2 points, 42 over/under

Jan. 9 at Minnesota Vikings

Vikings are favored by 4 points, 45½ over/under

That will change radially by the weekend after Chicagoans start dropping big coined on those odds.

I just checked, Bears odds are at 7 wins. Doesn't follow the per game predictions but makes more sense.

 

[iueyedoc]

That will change radially by the weekend after Chicagoans start dropping big coined on those odds.

I just checked, Bears odds are at 7 wins. Doesn't follow the per game predictions but makes more sense.

Seems more realistic, and I agree the gameday odds will radically change as they have nothing to do actual chances of victory, but just splitting the betting pool.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

3 wins? I can't see why they would bring Nagy back with that type of season. I think the draft gave them some breathing room, but 3 wins would be close to the worst team in the league. Bears still have to perform. Over 6 wins, Nagy is back. Under 6, he gone.

Knowing the Bears though, they are both safe and will be given time to build around Fields. I think Pace is safe no matter what. George has a chubby for him.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

The point of the OP is not about Vegas odds, but what happens if the Bears season ends up very much like what is the current betting expectations.

how do you define current expectations? this is a very biased and subjective definition since the season win over under got bumped from 6.5 to 7.5 literally yesterday.

if the bears win 8+ games they’re both coming back considering they’re still in a mini rebuild and have a brutal schedule.

 

[gallagher]

Does he still not need to lead a competitive team on the field? If he were to fail that this next season that would be 3 years in a row of a team known to have zero chance at success, and would likely be his 4th year in 4 tries of leading an extremely substandard offense. What would be the argument for not replacing him?

Making a standard of success with a rookie QB based on wins puts an unfair burden on Fields. Fox put in Mitch before he was ready because his job was on the line.

We just have to be patient this year, it's not one that is easy to predict and we don't want to set up Fields for failure. The measuring stick shouldn't be wins this year, but the growth of our young talent

 

[Chicago Staleys]

Nagy has 3 quality wins in 3 seasons.

If this fucker isn’t on thin ice then the Bears are reinventing the wheel on employee performance standards.

He better put a product on the field that’s winning games.